Amazon MGM is hoping moviegoers choose to spend some time with The Fire Inside this Christmas. The true-life sports drama stars Ryan Destiny as boxer Claressa “T-Rex” Shields as she trains for the 2012 Summer Olympics with Brian Tyree Henry as her coach. Rachel Morrison directs with a script from Moonlight Oscar winner Barry Jenkins, who currently has Mufasa: The Lion King in multiplexes.
Inside first screened at the Toronto Film Festival to some knockout reviews. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 96% with 78 on Metacritic. Said to be a crowdpleaser, I’m a bit perplexed by the lack of marketing. Perhaps this will surprise, but I think its five-day holiday earnings ring up less than $5 million.
The Fire Inside opening weekend prediction: $2.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Following its Venice Film Festival premiere to mostly strong reviews early in the fall, Babygirl is delivered to theaters on Christmas Day. The steamy thriller casts Nicole Kidman and Harris Dickinson in a Fatal Attraction scenario. Halina Reijn directs with a supporting cast including Sophie Wilde and Antonio Banderas.
The A24 release has generated some Oscar buzz for Ms. Kidman. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 85% with 80 on Metacritic. Babygirl hopes to bring in a female crowd over the holidays but its appeal could be limited. Look for a mid single digits output from Friday to Sunday and throw in $2-3 million more when factoring in the 25th and 26th.
Babygirl opening weekend prediction: $4.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $6.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Blogger’s Update (12/24): On the eve of its Christmas premiere, I’m bumping my A Complete Unknown from $13.1 million to $16.3 million from Friday to Sunday and from $24.4 million to $31.1 million from Wednesday to Sunday
Searchlight Pictures hope audiences seek A Complete Unknown when it debuts on Christmas Day. James Mangold, no stranger to the musical biopic genre with 2005’s Johnny and June Cash centered Walk the Line, directs. Timothée Chalamet is the legendary Bob Dylan with a supporting cast including Edward Norton, Elle Fanning, Monica Barbaro, Boyd Holbrook (as Johnny Cash), and Scoot McNairy.
Chalamet, coming off the one-two punch of Wonka and Dune: Part Two, has been visible promoting this and even went on College GameDay to hawk the holiday release. Reviews are sturdy enough with 78% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 72 Metacritic. Its lead, who does his own singing, is generating Best Actor buzz and he is a threat to win (it could nab a Best Picture slot too).
Unknown could succeed in bringing in an older audience interested in the subject matter and some youngsters interested in Chalamet. With Christmas falling on Wednesday, I think this reaches low double digits or low teens from Friday to Sunday and mid 20s for the five-day.
A Complete Unknown opening weekend prediction: $16.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $31.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Focus Features is hoping horror fans sink their teeth into Nosferatu when it premieres on Christmas. A remake of the 1922 German classic which adapted Bram Stoker’s Dracula, Robert Eggers directs. Bill Skarsgård takes on another classic scary villain after Pennywise in the It chapters. Costars include Nicholas Hoult, Lily-Rose Depp, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Emma Corrin, Ralph Ineson, Simon McBurney, and Willem Dafoe.
Reviews are strong with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 82 Metacritic score. This caps off a year filled with numerous acclaimed fright features. Nosferatu could manage the largest debut among the holiday openings considering its only real competition is A Complete Unknown.
During this season, newcomers often start out lower than they typically would and develop stronger legs into January. With 12/25 falling on a Wednesday, I’ll project Nosferatu manages low teens from Friday to Sunday with close to an equal amount when factoring in Christmas and the day after.
Nosferatu opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday estimate); $26.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Paramount and Disney respectively look to dominate the pre-Yuletide box office chart as Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Mufasa: The Lion King invade theaters this weekend. The duo should easily lead a family friendly lineup as we enter the bustling holiday season. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
As explained in said posts, Sonic may have the advantage of having a more front loaded start than its Mouse House competitor. My mid to high 70s forecast has the Sega threequel slightly outperforming its 2022 predecessor.
Mufasa is highly unlikely to match the near $200 million opening haul that 2019’s live-action The Lion King roared with. While I have it achieving low to mid 50s out of the gate, this sequel/prequel appears set up to play well throughout the season.
After three weeks atop the charts, Moana 2 will relinquish the crown. It may even fall to fourth as I have it dipping in the 50% range and Wicked sliding in the mid 40s.
I’ll give the five spot to Kraven the Hunter after a DOA arrival (more on that below), but it could be Gladiator II. I have Kraven plummeting in the upper 50s with Gladiator easing in the low 40s.
And with that, here’s my take on the top 6:
1. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $77.6 million
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $51.3 million
3. Wicked
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
4. Moana 2
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
5. Kraven the Hunter
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
6. Gladiator II
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
Box Office Results (December 13-15)
November leftovers Moana 2 and Wicked continued to entertain kids and their parents. The former was 1st with $26.4 million, in line with my $27.5 million prediction. Disney’s sequel has amassed $337 million since its Thanksgiving bow.
Wicked took the runner-up spot at $22.6 million, in range with my $21.7 million call. The Broadway adaptation stands at $359 million after four weeks.
Another poorly reviewed Spider-Man Universe offering bombed with audiences as Kraven the Hunter was blanked in third with $11 million. I was more generous at $14.8 million. This comes months after Madame Web struggled to find its comic book fans. With a tepid C Cinemascore grade, crowds agreed with critics on its quality.
Gladiator II was fourth with $7.6 million. My estimate? $7.6 million! After four weeks, the tally stands at $145 million.
Finally, anime The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim did not pass muster with moviegoers in fifth with a paltry $4.5 million. I gave it more credit at $8 million.
Mufasa: The Lion King roars into theaters December 20th serving as a prequel and sequel to 2019’s live-action The Lion King. It was, of course, a remake of the 1994 Disney animated classic and it grossed a massive $1.6 billion worldwide. Barry Jenkins, the Oscar winning director of Moonlight, directs. The voiceover cast with several returning from five years ago includes Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, Aaron Pierre, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Tiffany Boone, Mads Mikkelsen, Thandiwe Newton, Lennie James, Anika None Rose, Blue Ivy Carter, and her mom Beyoncé Knowles-Carter.
In the summer of ’19, King turned out to be a phenomenon with a $191 million opening and eventual $543 million domestic haul. Despite the heavy cash, many critics were harsh though it did earn an A Cinemascore. I’m still not sure audiences are clamoring for the prequel/sequel.
Don’t get me wrong. Plenty of parents and their kiddos will turn up. I’m just not expecting anywhere near the figures of what we saw a half decade ago. The Christmas holiday typically means even tentpole titles will start out slower than what they might in other seasons. Mufasa also must contend with Sonic the Hedgehog 3 which debuts directly against it and could be more front loaded.
I’m projecting the Lion premieres in second behind the Hedgehog with a low 50s gross and it’ll probably leg out solidly in the weeks to follow.
Mufasa: The Lion King opening weekend prediction: $51.3 million
For my Sonic the Hedgehog 3 prediction, click here:
Paramount seeks mega millions at the multiplex as Sonic the Hedgehog 3 arrives December 20th. Based on the hugely successful video games series from Sega, Jeff Fowler is in the director’s chair just as he was for the first two. Ben Schwartz returns to voice the title character with Jim Carrey back as the live-action main antagonist. Other faces behind the mic include Colleen O’Shaughnessey, Idris Elba, and Keanu Reeves while James Marsden, Tika Sumpter, Krysten Ritter, Natasha Rothwell, and Shemar Moore are among the in front of camera participants.
Over President’s Day weekend in 2020, the first Sonic took in $70 million over the four-day holiday. It ended up with $149 million as its earnings were disrupted by the pandemic that followed shortly after. In April of 2022, the sequel made $72 million for its start and $190 million stateside.
Early word-of-mouth is encouraging suggesting this is the strongest of the trio. Despite direct competition from Mufasa: The Lion King, this should be crowned box office ruler of the pre-Christmas frame. I believe this continues the upward trajectory of the franchise with a high 70s sprint to the number one spot.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 opening weekend prediction: $77.6 million
For my Mufasa: The Lion King prediction, click here:
Kraven the Hunter and anime The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim hope to get lucky at the box office this weekend while Moana 2 and Wicked look to maintain the 1-2 spots. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Kraven arrives after multiple delays amid muted buzz. It will hope for numbers closer to the Venom franchise as opposed to Madame Web, but that could be wishful thinking. My low to mid teens forecast puts in third behind the fourth frame of Wicked.
As for Rings, it could exceed expectations simply due to brand recognition. While some anime fans could turn up in addition to Tolkien aficionados, I have it flopping in fourth barely ahead of Gladiator II.
Moana 2 should manage a third weekend in 1st with a mid 40s decline.
Here’s how I see the high five playing out:
1. Moana 2
Predicted Gross: $27.5 million
2. Wicked
Predicted Gross: $21.7 million
3. Kraven the Hunter
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million
4. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
Predicted Gross: $8 million
5. Gladiator II
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
Box Office Results (December 6-8)
The post Thanksgiving holiday weekend saw even bigger declines than I figured with the top four remaining unchanged. Disney’s Moana 2, after its record shattering debut, fell 63% to $51.2 million compared to my $55.1 million prediction. Nevertheless the Mouse Hunt smash sequel has amassed $299 million since its start.
Wicked was second with $36.4 million (down 55%) and I incorrectly had it holding steadier with $48 million. In three weeks, the Golden Globe nominated Best Musical or Comedy has taken off with an astounding $322 million in three weeks.
Gladiator II was third with $12.5 million, again not matching my loftier $14.8 million projection. Ridley Scott’s follow-up brought its three-week tally to $132 million.
Red One held the four spot at $7 million (I said $7.6 million). The holiday offering continues to inch toward nine digits with $85 million in four weeks.
Finally, epic Indian action fest Pushpa 2: The Rule was fifth with $4.8 million from Friday to Sunday. That didn’t match my $5.9 million expectation though it has made $9.3 million since being unveiled on Wednesday.
A beloved fantasy franchise gets the anime and prequel treatment when The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim debuts December 13th. Set nearly 200 years before the events of Peter Jackson’s Oscar-winning trilogy, Kenji Kamiyama directs the animated adventure with Brian Cox, Gala Wise, Luke Pasqualino, and Miranda Otto providing voiceover work.
Obviously there’s a built-in audience for any adaptation of J.R.R. Tolkien’s creations. That makes this estimate tricky. A small portion of moviegoers may turn up not even knowing that it is anime. Some may stay away for that very reason. There’s also Kraven the Hunter opening the same weekend that could siphon off some action fans.
This certainly has the chance to exceed my number, but I’m projecting high single digits for a lackluster showing.
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim opening weekend prediction: $8 million
Columbia Pictures hopes audiences are craving new superhero action when Kraven the Hunter hits theaters on December 13th. This is the latest entry in the Sony Spider-Man Universe which has found success with the Venom pics and failure with Morbius and Madame Web. Aaron Taylor-Johnson stars in the title role spawned from the Marvel Comic with Ariana DeBose, Fred Hechinger, Alessandro Nivola, Christopher Abbott, and Russell Crowe offering support.
This has had a lengthy road to the multiplex. Hunter is on its fourth release date as it was originally slated for nearly two years ago. The first trailer came out in June 2023. In April of 2022, Morbius rolled out to a $39 million showing before cratering in weekend #2. Madame Web had a six-day rollout over President’s Day weekend and took in only $25 million for that time period.
I don’t think Kraven approaches that Morbius figure and it may fall just below Web‘s $15 million Friday to Sunday from a few months back.
Kraven the Hunter opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million
For my The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim prediction, click here:
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