The numbers aren’t final yet, but the first two episodes of The Chosen‘s fifth season (subtitled Last Supper) appear poised to place third at the box office this weekend with around $12 million. That’s a better than anticipated gross.
A week after those initial shows, episodes 3-5 will be in multiplexes on April 4th. Jonathan Roumie, Shahar Isaac, Elizabeth Tabish, Paras Patel, and Noah James are among cast members. It stands to reason that the theatrical outputs should experience diminishing returns. Episodes 6-8 will roll out on April 11th. I don’t anticipate this middle batch to top $10 million, but it should at least bring in half the cash that preceded it.
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million
Blogger’s Update (04/03): On the eve of its premiere, a very significant update as Minecraft tracking is going through the roof. I’m upping my projection from $57.5 million to a whopping $92.5 million (!)
Based on the best-selling video game of all time, A Minecraft Movie hopes to build upon its popular IP and expand it to multiplexes. Jared Hess, maker of Napoleon Dynamite and Nacho Libre, directs Jason Momoa, Jack Black, Danielle Brooks, Emma Myers, Sebastian Hansen, and Jennifer Coolidge.
The fantastical adventure comes armed with a reported $150 million price tag and an initial trailer that left some fans cold. Once considered a cinematic graveyard at the box office thanks to 90s duds such as Super Mario Bros. and Double Dragon, fortunes for gaming adaptations have turned around in the past few years. Sonic the Hedgehog and sequels, Pokémon Detective Pikachu, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Five Nights at Freddy’s are recent examples.
Minecraft isn’t expected to approach the $146 million that Mario opened with in 2023. A more realistic goal is the $60 million that Sonic the Hedgehog 3 premiered with last year. I’ll give it a little under that.
A Minecraft Movie opening weekend prediction: $92.5 million
For my The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 prediction, click here:
A quartet of newcomers hope to populate spots 2-5 this weekend with Snow White looking to cling to first place after a muted debut. We have the Jason Statham action pic A Working Man, Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega in the horror comedy Death of a Unicorn, more serious scary movie The Woman in the Yard with Danielle Deadwyler, and the first two episodes of the popular faith-based program The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Snow White had the lowest modern-day premiere for any of the Mouse House live-action adaptations (more on that below). To add insult to injury, its B+ Cinemascore grade is also the worst of the sub genre. The similarly performing Dumbo from 2019 plummeted 60% in its sophomore frame. I would expect a similar result for Snow White and that should mean a mid-teens gross.
That might keep it in first place as I have A Working Man in the low teens for a runner-up showing (it has an outside shot of being #1). I am placing Unicorn just below $10 million with Yard and Chosen both in the mid single digits. Considering the sad state of affairs at multiplexes financially, that should mean 80% of the high 5 is fresh product.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Snow White
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million
2. A Working Man
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million
3. Death of a Unicorn
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
4. The Woman in the Yard
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
5. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
Box Office Results (March 21-23)
Pick your cliched headline – it was a sleepy opening… it was a ho-hum debut…
They apply to Snow White which, as mentioned, experienced the weakest unveiling of any Disney live-action rendering at $42.2 million. That’s below my $49.6 million take and it’s a pretty impossible spin job for its studio to attempt. Some articles have correctly pointed out that Mufasa: The Lion King premiered to lower numbers but legged out nicely. The difference is that Mufasa rolled out over the holidays where drop-offs are insignificant. I don’t expect that to be the case here.
As I suspected, slots 2-6 were separated by just over a million bucks. That made it tricky to know where the pics would land. Black Bag stayed in second place with $4.2 million, on target with my $4 million prediction. Steven Soderbergh’s spy tale sits at $14 million after ten days.
Captain America: Brave New World was third with $4 million, in line with my $4.1 million call. The MCU entry is nearing $200 million with $192 million in the bank after six weeks.
Novocaine slid from 1st to 4th with $3.6 million, a tad below my $4.1 million projection. The two-week take is $15 million.
Mickey 17 rounded out the top five with $3.6 million. My estimate? $3.6 million! The three-week earnings are an underwhelming $40 million.
Finally, critically panned Robert De Niro (and Robert De Niro) Mob saga The Alto Knights was flat in sixth with $3.1 million (I said $3.7 million).
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 brings the first two episodes of the faith-based TV show to the big screen with Dallas Jenkins directing. The cast includes Jonathan Roumie as Jesus and Elizabeth Tabish as Mary Magdalene with Shahar Isaac, Paras Patel, and Noah James in support.
Back in November of 2022, the starting shows for season 3 took in an unexpectedly robust $8.7 million at multiplexes in its first weekend. For season 4 in February of 2024, the debut two installments brought in $7.3 million. I would estimate that returns for season 5 will slightly diminish in the mid single digits.
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 opening weekend prediction: $6.4 million
Danielle Deadwyler stars in The Woman in the Yard, the latest horror flick from Universal/Blumhouse. Reuniting the lead with her Carry-On director Jaume Collet-Serra, costars include Okwui Okpokwasili, Russell Hornsby, Peyton Jackson, and Estella Kahiha.
Coming in at a brisk 87 minutes, I still question whether genre fans will make the time for it. Some may opt for Death of a Unicorn, which opens against it. A best case scenario might be a gross just north of $10 million, similar to Talk to Me from 2022. Yet that pic had more buzz than this one. I’ll say mid to high single digits is where this lands.
The Woman in the Yard opening weekend prediction: $6.7 million
After being unveiled at South by Southwest earlier this month, A24’s Death of a Unicorn gallops into theaters March 28th. The latest chapter in the eat the rich comedy horror genre comes from writer/director Alex Scharfman with Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega headlining. Costars include Will Poulter, Téa Leoni, and Richard E. Grant.
Critical reaction is mixed with 63% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 56 Metacritic. Better reviews could’ve bolstered the buzz. A debut in the neighborhood of Abigail ($10.2 million) is certainly feasible. There is competition from The Woman in the Yard (a more serious scary offering) that could keep genre fans away. I’ll say Unicorn falls under $10 million unless Ortega’s Wednesday fans turn out in larger force than I’m anticipating.
Death of a Unicorn opening weekend prediction: $8.8 million
Jason Statham cranks out his latest action thriller A Working Man, clocking into multiplexes March 28th. The Amazon MGM production reunites the lead with The Beekeeper director David Ayer (also known for Fury and Suicide Squad). Michael Peña and David Harbour costar. The screenplay is co-scripted by Mr. Sylvester Stallone.
Working would be fortunate to ride the wave of buzz that Beekeeper managed (a sequel is in the works). That pic debuted with $16 million on its way to a $66 million overall domestic gross. This might get off to a rockier start, but lower double digits or teens is certainly possible.
A Working Man opening weekend prediction: $13.9 million
Hollywood hopes that Disney’s live-action remake of Snow White can wake up a sleepy box office this weekend while The Alto Knights with a double dose of Robert De Niro also debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
With Rachel Zegler in the title role and Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen, there’s no doubt Snow White will dwarf all competitors. The question is by how much. A best case scenario might be around $60 million though it could bottom out in the mid to high 30s. I’m giving it high 40s. While that’s nothing to sneeze at, it’s not that happy a result for the Mouse House considering most of their other live-action retellings far outpaced that figure.
Mr. De Niro portrays two real-life gangsters in the period piece Knights. Warner Bros hasn’t given it much of a marketing push. My lower to mid single digits forecast could put it anywhere from second to sixth.
Holdovers Novocaine (the current champ), Black Bag, Captain America: Brave New World, and Mickey 17 should all generate similar earnings. In fact, I have #2 and #6 separated by only half a million bucks. That’s with Novocaine dwindling just over 50% and Black Bag falling in the high 40s in its sophomore frame. Captain America is likely to experience the smallest decline.
Here’s how I have the top 6 playing out:
1. Snow White
Predicted Gross: $49.6 million
2. Novocaine
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
3. Captain America: Brave New World
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
4. Black Bag
Predicted Gross: $4 million
5. The Alto Knights
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
6. Mickey 17
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million
Box Office Results (March 14-16)
It was a painful weekend in multiplexes as no feature topped $10 million. Novocaine with Jack Quaid had muted bragging rights in 1st with $8.8 million. Failing to match my $9.8 million prediction, look for this to fade quickly with a meh B Cinemascore.
Also sporting a B Cinemascore was Steven Soderbergh’s Black Bag with Cate Blanchett and Michael Fassbender. The spy thriller was second with $7.6 million, just over my $7.3 million projection.
Bong Joon-ho’s Mickey 17 suffered a considerable 61% drop and was third with $7.4 million. I was a tad more generous to the Robert Pattinson sci-fi satire at $8.1 million. The two-week tally is an unimpressive $33 million.
Captain America: Brave New World was fourth at $5.6 million (I said $5.7 million) for a five-week total of $185 million and $200 million domestic looking achievable.
The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie rounded out the top five with a mere $3.1 million compared to my $3.8 million estimate for the animated offering.
Robert De Niro pulls double duty as real-life mobsters Vito Genovese and Frank Costello in The Alto Knights on March 21st. The crime drama from director Barry Levinson rolls into approximately 2500 venues with Debra Messing, Cosmo Jarvis, Kathrine Narducci, and Michael Rispoli in the supporting cast. Nicholas Pileggi, who wrote the source material for De Niro’s classic GoodFellas, penned the screenplay.
Warner Bros isn’t putting much marketing muscle behind this. Originally slated for February of last year, this is Levinson’s first theatrical project since the 2015 Bill Murray flop Rock the Kasbah. He did direct his star in HBO’s The Wizard of Lies back in 2017. Though De Niro is back in his most known genre, I’ll say Alto struggles to even hit $5 million as I analyze this.
The Alto Knight opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million
Disney looks to Snow White to earn a lot of green when it premieres March 21st. A live-action adaptation of the nearly 90-year-old first animated feature from the studio, Marc Webb directs with Rachel Zegler in the title role and Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. The supporting cast includes Andrew Burnap, Ansu Kabia, Hadley Fraser, and Lorena Andrea.
The Mouse House has pumping out these remakes with regularity in the past decade. Some have gotten off to sizzling starts including The Jungle Book ($103 million), Beauty and the Beast ($174 million), Aladdin ($91 million), The Lion King ($191 million), and The Little Mermaid ($95 million). Cinderella from 2015 premiered to $67 million.
Snow White would be fortunate to hit any of those numbers and it could approach Cinderella territory. The slipper half empty narrative is something closer to Dumbo‘s sleepier opening from 2019 at $46 million. I’ll say it gets beyond that, but not by much.
Snow White opening weekend prediction: $49.6 million
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 