Blogger’s Note (06/29): On eve of debut, revising estimate against to $13.8 million
Bloggers’s Note (06/27): Revising estimate to $18.3M from $22.3M
Will Ferrell and Amy Poehler are a married couple who start up an illegal gambling establishment to pay for their daughter’s college in The House next weekend. It’s the directorial debut of Andrew J. Cohen, writer of the Neighbors pics and Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates. Costars include Ryan Simpkins, Jason Mantzoukas, Nick Kroll, and Jeremy Renner.
As far as leading roles go, Ferrell has had a good run lately as Get Hard and Daddy’s Home both debuted in the mid to high 30s range. The former had the benefit of costarring Kevin Hart. The latter benefited from a Christmas release. I don’t see The House reaching those numbers and I see it more likely to be in range (perhaps a bit less) with Ferrell’s The Campaign, which opened to $26 million five summers ago.
Considering its relatively low $40 million reported budget and if it receives decent buzz, this should be a nice size hit for Warner Bros.
The House opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million
Illumination Entertainment’s blockbuster animated franchise is back on screen next weekend as Despicable Me 3 debuts. The series returns the voices of Steve Carell and Kristin Wiig, as well as Trey Parker, Steve Coogan, Julie Andrews, and Jenny Slate.
The Despicable flicks began in 2010 when the original debuted to $56 million and a $251 million eventual domestic haul. The 2013 sequel reached higher with an $83 million premiere (8th largest animated opening ever) and $368 million overall. Two summers ago, the spin-off Minions opened to an amazing $115 million (good for 3rd animated debut all-time) and $336 million overall.
Will part 3 continue the upward swing as far as openings go? Probably not. As I see it, kids and their folks will still come out in droves. Illumination would love to see this open with the $104 million achieved by last summer’s The Secret Life of Pets and it’s certainly possible. However, I foresee a start roughly on par with part 2 and maybe a bit higher. My forecast gives it the 8th biggest animated opening, supplanting its predecessor.
Despicable Me 3 opening weekend prediction: $88.7 million
There’s only one new wide release offering this week and that would be Transformers: The Last Knight, which is easily primed to debut at #1. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:
My prediction for it gives it the lowest traditional Friday to Sunday opening for the franchise yet. One reason is simple: Knight is out Wednesday so its extra two days will eat into the traditional weekend frame. The second reason is that I suspect this could be a series that’s losing steam. Still – the franchise is likely to impress overseas.
As for holdovers, Cars 3 looks to drop in the mid 40s in its sophomore weekend while Wonder Woman should continue its impressive holds in third place. The Tupac biopic All Eyez on Me is highly likely to experience a severe drop in its second weekend as even its first weekend gross was front loaded. The Mummy should round out the top five.
And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend ahead:
1. Transformers: The Last Knight
Predicted Gross: $57.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $81.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Cars 3
Predicted Gross: $30 million (representing a drop of 44%)
3. Wonder Woman
Predicted Gross: $27.6 million (representing a drop of 33%)
4. All Eyez on Me
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 68%)
5. The Mummy
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 49%)
Box Office Results (June 16-18)
As expected, Pixar continued its streak of #1 hits with Cars 3 opening to $53.6 million, a bit under my $57.8M prediction. While this is a decent showing, it is the lowest of the franchise and the smallest summertime opening for the studio since 2007’s Ratatouille. With stronger reviews than its predecessor, it looks to have a rather solid hold next weekend before Despicable Me 3 hits screens the following weekend.
Wonder Woman continues to astound as it dipped just 29% in its third weekend to $41.2 million for second, outshining my $32.6M estimate. The DC juggernaut has taken in $275 million.
The Tupac Shakur biopic All Eyez on Me proved critic proof as audiences flocked to it. It made $26.4 million for third (topping my $22.4M prediction). As mentioned, it will probably suffer a precipitous fall in its second weekend.
The Mummy fell to fourth place with $14.5 million (a bit ahead of my $13.2M forecast) for a weak total of $57 million.
Shark thriller 47 Meters Down performed at the higher end of expectations with a $11.2 million debut, easily topping my $6.1M projection. Considering it was originally slated for just a VOD premiere last summer, this is a pleasing opening for Entertainment Studios.
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales was sixth and I incorrectly had it outside of that. The fifth entry in the Disney series made $8.9 million to bring its tally to $150 million.
The disappointment of the weekend was unquestionably Rough Night, the Scarlett Johansson comedy that couldn’t overcome middling reviews and non-existent buzz. It generated just $8 million (well below my $15.1M estimate) for seventh place. This marks the star’s second under performer this year after March’s Ghost in the Shell.
A week from today, Transformers: The Last Knight appears primed to easily rule the #1 spot. The question is how the fifth entry in the franchise performs compared to its predecessors. Michael Bay is back in the director’s chair (reportedly for the final time) with returning cast members Mark Wahlberg, Stanley Tucci, Tyrese Gibson, Josh Duhamel, and John Turturro. Sir Anthony Hopkins and Nicola Peltz are new to the series. Most importantly, Optimus, Bumblebee, and plenty of Autobots and Decepticons return in their CG form.
The pic, with its reported $260 million budget, faces no other features opening directly against it. This Transformers franchise has shown itself to be critic proof over its decade of existence. That said, Knight‘s predecessor posted a series low domestically.
Let’s take a trip down box office grosses lane for these bots, shall we?
Transformers (2007)
Opening Weekend: $70.5 million three-day opening with $155 million over six-day July 4th weekend roll out. $319 million total domestic gross.
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (2009)
Opening Weekend: $108.9 million three-day opening with $200 million five-day roll out. $402 million total domestic gross.
Transformers: Dark of the Moon (2011)
Opening Weekend: $97.8 million three-day opening with $180.6 million six-day July 4th weekend roll out. $352 million total domestic gross.
Transformers: Age of Extinction (2014)
Opening Weekend: $100 million. $245 million total domestic gross.
As you can see, Age of Extinction earned more than $100 million less than the third entry. It’s also the only one that opened over a regular three-day release. The Last Knight debuts on Wednesday so you’ll be witnessing my guesstimate for its traditional weekend and five-day gross.
Whew… got all that?
Knight appears likely to suffer from franchise fatigue stateside. It’s worth noting that this franchise makes a killing overseas and that should not change. I could see a three-day haul in the mid to high with a five-day take of just over $80 million.
Transformers: The Last Knight opening weekend prediction: $57.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $81.5 million (Friday to Sunday)
This should be one interesting weekend at the box office as four new titles make their debut: Pixar sequel Cars 3, Scarlett Johansson bachelorette comedy Rough Night, Tupac Shakur biopic All Eyez on Me, and shark attack thriller 47 Meters Down. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As I see it, Cars 3 should easily take its place atop the charts (as pretty much all Pixar features do). However, my estimate for it puts it below both of its predecessors.
Wonder Woman displayed a remarkable hold in its sophomore frame (more on that below) and should hold the #2 spot over the influx of newbies.
If there’s one picture with breakout potential, it’s All Eyez on Me. Just two summers ago, we saw Straight Outta Compton greatly exceed all expectations when it grossed over $60 million out of the gate. Eyez doesn’t seem to have that kind of buzz going for it, but I’m predicting a sturdy third place showing.
That puts Rough Night in fourth with a rather ho-hum debut. It seems to be sliding down considerably from its original $25 million projections.
The Mummy stumbled in its premiere (more on that below as well) and I foresee a hefty dip in weekend #2 for fifth place.
Maybe it’s not wise to bet against audience love for sharks (The Shallows proved that last summer), but I’ve got 47 Meters Down earning the least among the fresh quartet for a sixth place showing.
And with that, my top 6 projections for the bustling weekend ahead:
1. Cars 3
Predicted Gross: $57.8 million
2. Wonder Woman
Predicted Gross: $32.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)
3. All Eyez on Me
Predicted Gross: $24.4 million
4. Rough Night
Predicted Gross: $15.1 million
5. The Mummy
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million (representing a drop of 58%)
6. 47 Meters Down
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
Box Office Results (June 9-11)
As mentioned, Wonder Woman continued its terrific run by dropping only 43% (a noteworthy hold for its genre) to $58.5 million. This topped my $49.5M projection and brought its ten-day total to $206 million. The superhero flick stands a decent shot at overtaking Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 as the season’s hottest ticket.
Tom Cruise’s The Mummy was hindered by poor reviews and word of mouth with a second place opening at $31.6 million (a bit under my $34.7M forecast). While it’s doing better overseas, this will undoubtedly be a major disappointment stateside.
Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie was third in its sophomore frame with $12.1 million, under my $14.1M projection for a so-so overall gross of $44M.
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales was fourth with $10.7 million (I said $10.2M) to bring its tally to $135M.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It made $6.3 million and has earned $366M total.
That’s because critically acclaimed horror pic It Comes at Night had a soft showing with just $5.9 million in sixth (I said $9.5M). While reviews were strong, audience reaction has been negative and look for this to fade very quickly.
Finally, the combo of military themes and dogs gave Megan Leavey an 8th place debut with $3.7 million (I said $3.3M).
Another shark tale swims into theaters next weekend when 47 Meters Down debuts. Johannes Roberts directs the killer shark pic with Mandy Moore, Matthew Modine, and Claire Holt among the human chum.
The horror thriller has experienced an interesting journey to the big screen. Original distributor Dimension Films slated Meters for a VOD premiere in August 2016 before Entertainment Studios stepped in, bought the rights, and decided a theatrical release was in order.
Why the change? One has to surmise that last summer’s success of the The Shallows (perhaps coupled with TV’s Sharknado ratings) helped. Another benefit: star Moore has seen her visibility rise with her hit TV drama “This Is Us”.
How will this translate to its box office potential? 47 Meters Down should certainly rank fourth among the newbies out next weekend – well behind Cars 3, All Eyez on Me, and Rough Night. I’ll predict a floor of about $5 million with a ceiling of $8 million. My gut has it on the lower end of that scale.
47 Meters Down opening weekend prediction: $6.1 million
The life and times of the iconic late rapper Tupac Shakur gets the big screen treatment next weekend when All Eyez on Me drops. Taking its title from his heralded Death Row album in 1996, the pic casts Demetrius Shipp Jr. as Shakur with a supporting cast that includes Kat Graham, Lauren Cohan, Danai Gurira, and Jamal Woolard (reprising his role as the Notorious B.I.G. that he played in 2009’s Notorious). Benny Boom, known mostly for making rap videos, directs.
All eyez may be on whether this manages to over perform and nab a possible third place showing over Rough Night. The chances of this coming anywhere near Straight Outta Compton territory (which made $60 million out of the gate) seems highly unlikely. However, a gross in the range of the aforementioned Notorious seems feasible. That film made $23 million over the long MLK weekend over eight years ago and $20 million for the traditional weekend.
That’s where I’ll put Tupac’s biopic, which puts it just over Rough Night for third place (and behind Cars 3 and Wonder Woman).
All Eyez on Me opening weekend prediction: $24.4 million
Scarlett Johansson gets out of action mode and into comedy mode next weekend when Rough Nights lands in theaters. The R rated flick finds the starlet involved in a bachelorette party gone wrong. Costars include Kate McKinnon, Jillian Bell, Zoe Kravitz, Ilana Glazer, Demi Moore, and Ty Burrell.
Originally titled Rock That Body, the pic will attempt to bring a sizable female audience that made Bad Moms one of the surprise hits of last summer. There is competition in the form of the third weekend of Wonder Woman, which is likely to be banking in the low 30s for that frame.
Johansson could use some good box office fortune after the flop that was this spring’s Ghost in the Shell. Some estimates have Rough Night making around $25 million (higher than the $23 million achieved by Bad Moms out of the gate). I believe the level of competition and lack of buzz will result in a mid teens debut.
Rough Night opening weekend prediction: $15.1 million
Pixar has its entry in the summer box office derby as Cars 3 opens next weekend. The threequel will have the honor of being the highest grossing animated sequel of the season for two weeks until Despicable Me 3 arrives.
Owen Wilson, Larry the Cable Guy, Cristela Alonzo, Armie Hammer, Bonnie Hunt, Kerry Washington, and Nathan Fillion are among the actors lending their voices to the project. Reportedly, the late Paul Newman (who contributed to the original) will also be heard in flashback sequences.
The auto themed comedy franchise is not considered among the best that Pixar has produced. The 2006 original opened to $60 million with an eventual $244 million domestic haul. The 2011 sequel premiered a bit higher at $66 million, but earned considerably less overall at $191 million. That’s rather low compared to what Pixar has done in recent years. It’s also worth noting that Cars 2 is generally considered the worst of the 17 pictures the studio has produced thus far.
Bottom line: summer ’17 Pixar will be nothing compared to summer ’16 Pixar when Finding Dory opened to $135 million and ended up being the season’s highest grosser at $486 million. I’ll predict Cars 3 does manage to make just under what the first did 11 years ago and eventually struggles to make $191 million made by its predecessor.
Tom Cruise will attempt to take on the bonanza that is WonderWoman this weekend and it will probably come up short. Universal monster pic TheMummy opens wide along with criticality lauded horror flick ItComesatNight and military themed biopic MeganLeavey. You can read my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
Mr. Cruise looks headed for a second place showing as I foresee WonderWoman falling just a bit over 50%. There is a chance that Mummy over performs and gets around $50 million, but I’m not seeing it right now.
CaptainUnderpants should be in third while the four spot could be a battle between PiratesoftheCaribbean in its third frame and ItComesatNight. The latter also has a chance to exceed my estimate, but I’ve got under double digits.
As for MeganLeavey, I’m anticipating a muted premiere at $3.3 million, which would put it in 8th place.
And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:
1. WonderWoman
Predicted Gross: $49.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)
2. TheMummy
Predicted Gross: $34.7 million
3. CaptainUnderpants: TheFirstEpicMovie
Predicted Gross: $14.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)
4. PiratesoftheCaribbean: DeadMenTellNoTales
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 54%)
5. ItComesatNight
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
BoxOfficeResults (June2–4)
DC had a critical hit and now they have a huge box office smash as WonderWoman lassoed $103.2 million, topping my $98.3M projection. It set the all-time opening record for a female directed motion picture. The road ahead looks bright with very positive word of mouth.
CaptainUnderpants was second and came in on the lower end of expectations with $23.8 million, under my $27.4M estimate. The Dreamworks animated tale will hope for smallish drops in the weekends ahead, but there’s competition coming with Cars3 and DespicableMe3 this month.
PiratesoftheCaribbean dropped to third with $22 million, in line with my $21.6M prediction for a two-week total of $115M.
GuardiansoftheGalaxyVol. 2 was fourth with $9.8 million (I said $10M) for $355M overall.
Baywatch held up a bit better than I figured in weekend #2, placing fifth with $8.7 million compared to my $7.5M forecast. It’s earned $41M.
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