Ben Affleck hopes to generate big box office numbers with The Accountant 2 on April 25th. Arriving eight and a half years after its predecessor, Gavin O’Connor returns to direct the action thriller with Jon Bernthal, Cynthia Addai-Robinson, Daniella Pineda, and J.K. Simmons in support.
First screened at South by Southwest last month, the sequel is drawing more complimentary reactions than the 2016 original. The Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic ratings are 85% and 61 respectively compared to part 1’s 53% and 51.
Even with so-so reviews, The Accountant exceeded expectations with a $24 million opening and $86 million eventual domestic take. With several years to play on the basic cable circuit, anticipation for the sequel could mean a higher debut. However, there’s lots of competition so I’m projecting this post similar results.
The Accountant 2 opening weekend prediction: $24.3 million
Sinners, which reunites Michael B. Jordan with his Creed and Black Panther director Ryan Coogler, looks for a strong Easter weekend showing at multiplexes. Seeking to challenge A Minecraft Movie for the top spot, you can peruse my detailed prediction post on the vampire flick here:
It could be a real photo finish for the #1 slot. Sinners is holding at a remarkable 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and that should help build buzz. My mid 40s projection might equal box office supremacy.
Yet I have Minecraft barely managing bragging rights with a low 40s percent ease for a third week in first. The separation is less than $1.5 million between the leaders.
Holdovers in their sophomore frames should populate the rest of the top five via The King of Kings, The Amateur, and Warfare.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $46.1 million
2. Sinners
Predicted Gross: $44.8 million
3. The King of Kings
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
4. The Amateur
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
5. Warfare
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
Box Office Results (April 11-13)
A Minecraft Movie mastered the charts once again with $78.5 million, on pace with my $77.9 million call. The video game based smash has amassed $278 million in just two weeks of release.
Five newcomers filled the next spots with animated The King of Kings from Angel Studios outpacing its competitors. With an A+ Cinemascore, it was runner-up with $19.3 million. That’s falling shy of my $21.4 million estimate, but it’s still a terrific result.
The Amateur with Rami Malek was third with $14.8 million. That’s at the top of the anticipated range for the spy thriller and outdoes my $11.9 million prediction.
Warfare from Alex Garland and Iraq War vet Ray Mendoza managed fourth with $8.3 million, on target with my $8.5 million projection.
Blumhouse thriller Drop was fifth with a meh $7.3 million. I was close at $7.6 million. The B Cinemascore is decent for its genre though I’d look for this to fade quickly.
Finally, The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 took sixth with $6 million, I was a tad lower at $5.5 million.
Michael B. Jordan reunites with his Creed and Black Panther director Ryan Coogler on April 18th with Sinners. The vampire tale with an original script from the auteur casts Jordan in dual roles with Hailee Steinfeld, Miles Caton, Jack O’Connell, Wunmi Mosako, Jayme Lawson, Omar Benson Miller, Li Jun Li, and Delroy Lindo providing support.
Reviews are impressive with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 83 Metacritic. With an Easter release, the forecast is that Sinners takes in $35-40 million for its start. The R rating might slightly limit its potential though that could be negligible. Given the high profile re-teaming of star and filmmaker and buzz that should build considering the critical reaction, I think it might exceed expectations.
After a record breaking start, A Minecraft Movie should easily repeat in first position at the box office. Yet there’s a handful of newcomers jockeying for slots 2-6. We have the faith-based animated tale The King of Kings, Rami Malek’s spy thriller The Amateur, Blumhouse thriller Drop, Alex Garland’s Iraqi Freedom drama Warfare, and episodes 6-8 of the Christian show The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:
Based on the best selling video game of all time, A Minecraft Movie achieved the best opening for a picture based on a video game (more on that below). I’m estimating a sophomore drop between 50-55% and that should put it somewhere in the mid 70s-low 80s.
A report surfaced today that The King of Kings has already taken in approximately $8 million in pre-sales. That’s surprising, but Angel Studios has certainly exceeded projections before via Sound of Freedom. A low 20s performance would easily put it in the runner-up spot.
After that it gets tricky. The Amateur, Warfare, and Drop could all open similarly in the $7-11 million range. I’ve got them placing in the order of the previous sentence with The Chosen in sixth.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $77.9 million
2. The King of Kings
Predicted Gross: $21.4 million
3. The Amateur
Predicted Gross: $11.9 million
4. Warfare
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
5. Drop
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
6. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
Box Office Results (April 4-6)
The box office got a much needed jolt as A Minecraft Movie kicked off well above forecasts. With $162.7 million, it is 2025’s largest start thus far and, as mentioned, the highest video game adapted feature in history. The previous record was held by 2023’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie with $146 million. I was way off with a prediction of only $92.5 million. With a less than expected B+ Cinemascore, it should fall further than the 37% that Mario dropped in its second weekend. Yet any way you cut it, this is a fantastic result for Warner Bros.
A Working Man with Jason Statham slid to second with $7.3 million, slightly under my $8 million call. The action thriller has made $27 million after ten days.
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 placed third with $6.9 million, not quite matching my $7.8 million estimate. Episodes 3-5 of the popular program made a little more than half of the nearly $12 million achieved by Part 1. Per above, diminishing returns should continue with Part 3.
Disney dud Snow White was fourth with $5.9 million (I said $6.7 million). The troubling three-week tally is $77 million.
Horror flick The Woman in the Yard was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the high five. With $4.5 million, the two-week total is $16 million.
I had Part 1 of the The Chosen in fifth with $5.2 million, but it plummeted 84% to seventh with $1.8 million for $17 million overall.
Taken from his real life experiences fighting in the Iraq War, Ray Mendoza co-directs Warfare which releases April 11th. The other filmmaker behind the camera is Alex Garland in his follow-up to Civil War. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai plays Mendoza with a supporting cast including Will Poulter, Cosmo Jarvis, Joseph Quinn, Kit Connor, Finn Bennett, Taylor John Smith, Michael Gandolfini, and Charles Melton.
The A24 release (which also distributed Civil War) is one of a handful of pics next weekend looking to gross around $10 million, give or take. Reviews for Warfare are strong with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 78 Metacritic. Yet I don’t see this approaching the $25 million that Civil over-indexed at during the same April frame last year.
A higher than expected veteran/action fans turnout could push this up beyond my forecast, but I’ll say this falls under $10 million.
Episodes 6-8 of the faith-based show’s 5th season with a devoted following hits multiplexes on April 11th in The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3. With Jonathan Roumie starring as Jesus, other cast members include Shahar Isaac, Elizabeth Tabish, Paras Patel, and Noah James.
This is the third frame in a row where installments have played theatrically. Part 1 scored a better than anticipated premiere of nearly $12 million. Part 2‘s grosses aren’t finalized but appear to be coming in with approximately $7 million.
In this pre-Easter frame, Part 3 sees direct competition via animated The King of Kings. Some viewers may also wait to watch eps 6-8 when the entire season is packaged together over the holiday. Nevertheless I’ll say it falls slightly under its predecessor.
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 opening weekend prediction: $5.5 million
Blogger’s Note (04/07): Deadline reports that Kings is already seeing nearly $8 million in pre-sales four days before its debut. Angel Studios is employing a marketing strategy which includes kids receiving a free ticket to screenings with the family. This is causing me to raise my projection from $11.4 million to a sizzling $21.4 million.
Angel Studios, which had an unexpectedly massive hit with Sound of Freedom in 2023, has witnessed mixed returns for subsequent releases. The faith-based outlet goes the animation route on April 11th via The King of Kings. Based on a children’s book, it involves Charles Dickens (voiced by Kenneth Branagh) narrating the life of Jesus (Oscar Isaac). Other performers behind the mic include Uma Thurman, Mark Hamill, Roman Griffin Davis, Forest Whitaker, and Ben Kingsley.
Will Christians and kiddos turn out? Timed for a pre-Easter premiere, it does have direct competition from The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3, the popular show which will broadcast the final 3 episodes for season 5. There’s also the sophomore frame for A Minecraft Movie which caters to family crowds.
Like the other new releases next weekend, I think this will hover around $10 million. I’ll project it gets a little over that and it might have a heavenly hold over the holiday in its second go-round.
The King of Kings opening weekend prediction: $21.4 million
Drop drops on April 11th and it’s a thriller from Christopher Landon, known best for making horror pics Happy Death Day and Freaky. Meghann Fahy and Brandon Sklenar headline with Violett Beane, Jacob Robinson, and Reed Diamond providing support.
First screened at South by Southwest last month, early reviews are solid with 89% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 72 Metacritic. Despite the encouraging notices, I suspect this might generate more business if it fell in the director’s scary movie oeuvre. Like other releases out next weekend, this may fall a bit under $10 million or perhaps a tad over. I’m going with the under on this one.
Based on a 1981 novel by Robert Littell that was turned into a movie starring John Savage and Christopher Plummer, 20th Century Studios releases The Amateur on April 11th. The spy thriller is directed by James Hawes with Bohemian Rhapsody Oscar winner Rami Malek headlining. Costars include Rachel Brosnahan (about to appear in the eagerly anticipated Superman), Caitriona Balfe, Jon Bernthal, Michael Stuhlbarg, Holt McCallany, Julianne Nicholson, Adrian Martinez, and Laurence Fishburne.
Once fashioned as a starring vehicle for Hugh Jackman, The Amateur has less power to capitalize on and seemingly scant buzz. This may struggle to reach $10 million, but I’ll project that it just gets there.
The Amateur opening weekend prediction: $11.9 million
Blogger’s Update (04/03): On the eve of its premiere, a very significant update as Minecraft tracking is going through the roof. I’m upping my projection from $57.5 million to a whopping $92.5 million (!)
A Minecraft Movie starring Jason Momoa and Jack Black looks to dominate the charts while The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 hopes to capture a hefty portion of the audience that witnessed Part 1 this past weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Minecraft, based on the best selling video game of all time, should outgross the rest of the top five combined. However, that’s with a caveat. My mid to high 50s estimate isn’t exactly a robust number for this IP and would be considered a slight disappointment.
The rest of the top 5 is a little tricky. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 encompasses episodes 3-5 of the popular faith-based TV show. Part 1 easily outpaced expectations (more on that below). The follow-up shows should see diminishing returns, but it could still be good enough for second or third place. According to the info I’ve seen, Part 1 should still be in multiplexes and it might remain in the top five.
As for holdovers, Jason Statham’s A Working Man clocked a surprising #1 start and it may lose around half its audience while Disney’s dud Snow White may lose slightly more.
Here’s how I have the chart playing out:
1. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $92.5 million
2. A Working Man
Predicted Gross: $8 million
3. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
4. Snow White
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
5. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (March 28-30)
In an upset, A Working Man capitalized on the ho-hum Snow White reception and was first with $15.5 million. The action thriller rose above my $13.9 million prediction and is another decent hit for Mr. Statham.
Disney’s Snow White live-action retelling tumbled 66% to $14.3 million, below my $16.4 million projection. The ten-day take is $66 million as it tries to reach $100 million domestically.
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1, as mentioned, easily rose above forecasts in third with $11.7 million. That soars past my $6.4 million call and is quite a heavenly result for the Fathom Events distributed property.
Horror flick The Woman in the Yard with Danielle Deadwyler debuted in fourth with $9.3 million, surpassing my $6.7 million estimate. With a C- Cinemascore, the sophomore drop should be substantial. Lucky for it, the budget is reportedly a meager $12 million.
The biggest disappointment of the week besides Snow‘s fall was Death of a Unicorn. In fifth place, the horror comedy with Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega took in just $5.7 million compared to my $8.8 million prediction.
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