Tag: box office predictions

Lilo & Stitch Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (05/21/25): I am upping my Lilo & Stitch estimate considerably from $118.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $143.7 million from Friday to Monday to $159.7 million for the three-day and $196.6 million for the four-day. That would easily be a new Memorial Day weekend record.

23 summers ago, Disney’s animated Lilo & Stitch narrowly opened in second to Minority Report with Tom Cruise. This Memorial Day weekend, the Mouse House’s live-action (and also animated) remake will attempt to outpace Cruise’s Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning. That’s a mission it should achieve with room to spare.

Dean Fleischer Camp, maker of the acclaimed Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, is behind the camera. Chris Sanders, who wrote and directed the 2002 original, still provides the voice of Stitch with Maia Keoloha as Lilo. The supporting cast includes Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Billy Magnussen, Hannah Waddingham, Courtney B. Vance, Zach Galifianakis, Tia Carrere, Amy Hill, and Jason Scott Lee.

Expectations are high for a project that once was anticipated to be a Disney+ streaming premiere. Tracking suggests a nine digit performance over the holiday frame. The studio is no stranger to Memorial Day outputs and that includes these remakes. In 2019, Aladdin took in $91 million from Friday to Sunday and $116 million when factoring in Monday. Two years ago, The Little Mermaid made $95 million for the three-day and $118 million over four.

Lilo took in $273 million worldwide for its run nearly a quarter century ago and spawned direct-to-video sequels. A nostalgia factor and a dearth of competition for family audiences (as A Minecraft Movie winds down) could mean an even stronger opening than the aforementioned titles. I’ll say it manages to get close to $120 million from Friday to Sunday and over $140 million adding Monday. That would give it the second all-time Memorial weekend behind Top Gun: Maverick (more Cruise comparisons!) and just ahead of Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men’s Chest.

Lilo & Stitch opening weekend prediction: $159.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $196.6 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning prediction, click here:

Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning Box Office Prediction

For my The Last Rodeo prediction, click here:

The Last Rodeo Box Office Prediction

For my Friendship prediction, click here:

Friendship Box Office Prediction

May 16-18 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (05/14): Two days before its premiere, I am doing a significant upgrade on Final Destinaition from $35.2 million to $44.2 million

Final Destination Bloodlines looks to inject some life into multiplexes with the franchise returning after 14 dormant years. We also have music superstar Abel Tesfaye (better known as The Weeknd) headlining the musical thriller Hurry Up Tomorrow. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

Final Destination Bloodlines Box Office Prediction
Hurry Up Tomorrow Box Office Prediction

Bloodlines should be another winner for Warner Bros after the massive success of A Minecraft Movie and Sinners (the studio might account for 60 percent of the high 5 this weekend). I have the sixth entry in the series achieving the strongest start yet in the mid 30s.

As for Hurry Up Tomorrow (which also costars Jenna Ortega and Barry Keoghan), it’s tricky to figure how many of The Weeknd’s fans will turn out this week(e)nd. Buzz seems quiet and it could fall anywhere between fourth and sixth place.

The New Avengers (recently known as Thunderbolts*) should drop to the runner-up slot after two weeks on top. The MCU adventure may see a dip in the low to mid 40s. Sinners looks to place third while Minecraft and The Accountant 2 could duke it out for 4th (depending on where Tomorrow falls).

Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:

1. Final Destination Bloodlines

Predicted Gross: $42.2 million

2. The New Avengers

Predicted Gross: $18.1 million

3. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million

4. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

5. The Accountant 2

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

6. Hurry Up Tomorrow

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

Box Office Results (May 9-11)

The New Avengers had a rather typical MCU slide at 56% with $32.3 million in its second outing. That’s on pace with my $33.8 million call. The decline is a bit more than Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings with 54% but not as steep as the 62% that befell Eternals.

Sinners held firm in second with $22.1 million, a tad shy of my $24 million prediction. Ryan Coogler’s latest has bitten off $215 million after four weeks.

A Minecraft Movie was third with $7.6 million (I said $8.9 million) as the blockbuster stands at a mighty $408 million in its six weeks of play.

The Accountant 2 held better than I assumed in weekend #3 with $6.7 million compared to my $4.6 million estimate. Ben Affleck’s sequel is up to $51 million.

Finally, I didn’t do a projection for micro-budgeted slasher flick Clown in a Cornfield. Yet it managed to be fifth with $3.6 million on over 2000 screens.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Hurry Up Tomorrow Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate hopes that fans of The Weeknd turn out next weekend when Hurry Up Tomorrow drops May 16th. A companion piece to the singer’s sixth studio album released in late January, It Comes at Night and Waves director is behind the camera and co-wrote the screenplay with Abel Tesfaye (best known by the aforementioned stage name). Jenna Ortega and Barry Keoghan join the performer in the cast.

The musical thriller is unlikely to be The Weeknd’s Purple Rain though figuring how much of his fanbase will turn out is tricky. With a reported production budget of $20 million, it’ll hope to at least get to higher single digits at the start. I suspect many will save their money and watch on streaming.

Hurry Up Tomorrow opening weeknd (*) prediction: $4.5 million

For my Final Destination Bloodlines prediction, click here:

Final Destination Bloodlines Box Office Prediction

Final Destination Bloodlines Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (05/14): Two days before its premiere, I am doing an upgrade to my prediction from $35.2 million to $42.2 million

A quarter century after the original kicked off a fresh horror franchise, Final Destination Bloodlines logs into multiplexes on May 16th. The sixth Destination and first in nearly 14 years is co-directed by Zach Lipovsky and Adam Stein. Kaitlyn Santa Juana, Teo Briones, Richard Harmon, Owen Patrick Joyner, Anna Lore, Brec Bassinger, and the late Tony Todd make up the cast.

Warner Bros (hot off blockbusters A Minecraft Movie and Sinners) could have another success on their hands. Enough time has passed between entries that a nostalgia factor may be in play. It doesn’t hurt that competition is minimal as some heavier hitters are waiting until Memorial Day weekend and June.

The highest series opening belongs to 2009’s The Final Destination as that fourth entry started with $27 million. I believe Bloodlines should match or top that. My gut says take the over (UPDATE: way over)…

Final Destination Bloodlines opening weekend prediction: $42.2 million

For my Hurry Up Tomorrow prediction, click here:

Hurry Up Tomorrow Box Office Prediction

May 9-11 Box Office Predictions

The movie formerly known as Thunderbolts* looks to rule the box office once again with Sinners firmly in the runner-up position in this second May frame. That’s because there’s no new wide releases to challenge them and the top five should look similar to the month’s first weekend.

The MCU’s 36th entry Thunderbolts* (we’ll get to that asterisk) opened similarly to 2021 franchise titles Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($75 million) and Eternals ($71 million). Shang dropped in the mid-50s in its sophomore outing while Eternals fell a steeper 62%. With solid word-of-mouth and scant competition, a low to mid 50s decline is where I see this ending up.

Sinners looks to continue its meager drops and should see mid-20s in its fourth go-round while A Minecraft Movie, The Accountant 2, and Until Dawn should all hold at 3-5.

Back to that asterisk. So… (spoiler alert?… but not really) Disney/Marvel revealed today that Thunderbolts* is actually titled The New Avengers and it is listed that way on official materials. This all makes sense after you’ve seen it. Therefore I will honor the studio’s wishes and call it that moving forward.

Here’s how I see the high 5 shaking out:

1. The New Avengers

Predicted Gross: $33.8 million

2. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $24 million

3. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

4. The Accountant 2

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

5. Until Dawn

Predicted Gross: $2.2 million

Box Office Results (May 2-4)

Thund…,errr, The New Avengers came in at the lower end of its anticipated range with $74.3 million, falling shy of my $79.3 million call. It’s not a bad result for the superhero tale, but it is several million short of what Captain America: Brave New World accomplished in February and nowhere near the earnings of previous sagas with the word Avengers in it.

Sinners hauled in another $33.1 million, in line with my $34 million forecast. Ryan Coogler’s vampire flick has amassed $179 million in three weeks.

A Minecraft Movie was third with $13.7 million, slightly topping my $12.5 million projection. The Warner Bros smash is just under $400 million at $398 million after four weeks.

The Accountant 2 saw its numbers plummet 61% in weekend #2 with $9.4 million. That’s below my more generous $12.8 million prediction. The ten-day tally is $41 million.

Video game based horror pic Until Dawn rounded out the top five with $3.8 million (I said $3.4 million) for $14 million in its two weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 2-4 Box Office Predictions

The summer 2025 box office season gets underway with Marvel’s Thunderbolts*. The 36th franchise entry looks to make noise atop the charts and you peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Thunderbolts* Box Office Prediction

With solid early buzz, my high 70s projection gives it about $10 million less than what Captain America: Brave New World accomplished in February. The debut would put it in line with general expectations as it’ll hope to leg out impressively throughout May.

Sinners was #1 once again for a second frame following an astonishing hold (more on that below). The MCU competition should mean a heftier slide than the sophomore outing, but I still have it only easing around 25%. That would mean a third weekend north of $30 million.

Third place could be a close contest between holdovers The Accountant 2 and A Minecraft Movie. I have the former dropping close to 50% with Minecraft experiencing a mid 40s decline.

Fifth place should belong to Until Dawn with around a high 50s to 60% plummet (typical for the horror genre).

Here’s how I have that high five playing out:

1. Thunderbolts*

Predicted Gross: $79.3 million

2. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $34 million

3. The Accountant 2

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

4. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

5. Until Dawn

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

Box Office Results (April 25-27)

Multiplexes were packed as four features topped $20 million in sales with Sinners shocking prognosticators with a mere 5% drop. Ryan Coogler’s vampire flick with Michael B. Jordan sucked up another $45.7 million, blasting past my $33.1 million prediction. In ten days, the Oscar contender stands at $123 million with $300 million domestic potentially in its sights.

The rerelease of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith for its 20th anniversary landed one of the best reissue premieres of all time with $25.4 million in a surprise second That edges past my $22.6 million call. The third feature (and best reviewed) of the second trilogy returned to theaters for a one-week engagement (that’s why you don’t see it reflected in my projections for next weekend). A nostalgia factor clearly helped Sith as it almost tripled what The Phantom Menace‘s rerelease in February 2024 earned for its start. The $25 million in extra coin for Sith pushed the total domestic haul to $405 million over two decades.

The highest grossing truly new film was The Accountant 2 as the Ben Affleck action sequel was third with $24.5 million. I was right on target at $24.3 million, but I thought it would be #2. Its opening gross is right in line with the 2016 original.

A Minecraft Movie was fourth in weekend #4 with $22.7 million (I said $21.4 million) as the Warner Bros video game adaptation has collected $379 million.

New horror pic Until Dawn (also based on a video game) rounded out the top five with $8 million. The unimpressive figure is on pace with my $7.8 million forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Thunderbolts* Box Office Prediction

Thunderbolts* looks to light up the box office as it officially kicks off the summer season on May 2nd. Like many recent cinematic summers, the MCU has the first tentpole and it’s the franchise’s 36th flick in 17 years. Jake Schreier directs the mashup of Marvel heroes with a cast including Florence Pugh, Sebastian Stan, Wyatt Russell, Olga Kurylenko, Lewis Pullman, Geraldine Viswanathan, David Harbour, Hannah John-Kamen, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus.

The MCU ruled the 2024 season with Deadpool & Wolverine with its $211 million premiere and $636 million overall domestic haul. Thunderbolts* might be looking at roughly a third of that debut out of the gate. February predecessor Captain America: Brave New World rolled out with $88 million and familiarity with its title character might make its number unattainable for this new crew.

That said the early buzz is stronger than what World experienced so I believe high 70s or low 80s is certainly attainable.

Thunderbolts* opening weekend prediction: $79.3 million

Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith Re-Release Box Office Prediction

Disney looks to squeeze more bucks out of a blue chip franchise with the 20th anniversary re-release of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith. It is the culmination of the oft criticized second trilogy in the vaunted franchise and this is generally considered the strongest of the three. Marking the last picture directed by series creator George Lucas, this one-week engagement could manage to bring the faithful and more out.

Last May, Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace was put back into multiplexes for its 25th anniversary. Results were better than anticipated with an $8.7 million debut. The second installment – Attack of the Clones – is not being granted a theatrical comeback. Pre-sales for Sith are quite encouraging and suggest this could double the Phantom figures. I’ll predict this gets past $20 million for what could be anywhere from a second to fourth place premiere.

Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith opening weekend prediction: $22.6 million

For my The Accountant 2 prediction, click here:

The Accountant 2 Box Office Prediction

For my Until Dawn prediction, click here:

Until Dawn Box Office Prediction

April 25-27 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (04/23): I am now factoring in the re-release of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith and projecting a third place showing with $20M+. I am also lowering my The Account 2 estimate from $28.6 million to $24.3 million.

The Accountant 2 with Ben Affleck looks to challenge the second weekend of Sinners for box office supremacy while horror pic Until Dawn also debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

The Accountant 2 Box Office Prediction
Until Dawn Box Office Prediction

Over Easter weekend, I predicted a close race between A Minecraft Movie and Sinners with the former coming out on top. I underestimated Sinners (more on that below) and it toppled Minecraft. This time it could be a photo finish between Sinners and The Accountant 2.

My high 20s projection for Affleck’s action thriller sequel could be enough for #1. However, due to its A Cinemascore grade and sizzling reviews, I’m thinking Sinners only dips in the mid 30s and that could give it north of $30 million for a repeat performance on top.

A mid 40s drop would give Minecraft $20M+ and third place. The battle for fifth could be interesting. While faith-based The King of Kings held even better than I figured over the holiday, the third weekend slide should be heftier in the mid 50s. That could still leave it in fourth as I have little faith in Until Dawn.

Here’s how I have the high six playing out:

1. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $33.1 million

2. The Accountant 2

Predicted Gross: $24.3 million

3. Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith re-release

Predicted Gross: $22.6 million

4. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $21.4 million

5. The King of Kings

Predicted Gross: $8 million

6. Until Dawn

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

Box Office Results (April 18-20)

It was a smoking Easter frame for Ryan Coogler’s Sinners with the best debut for an original picture since Jordan Peele’s Us from 2019. As mentioned, glowing reviews helped build buzz to a $48 million start. That tops my $44.8 million forecast and the Michael B. Jordan vampire saga looks to hold up well based on that word-of-mouth (in addition to being a likely awards contender).

After two weeks atop the charts, A Minecraft Movie slipped to second with $40.4 million (not matching my $46.1 million estimate). Nevertheless Warner Bros was able to claim legit bragging rights with Sinners and this each exceeding expectations. The three-week total is $343 million.

The King of Kings eased a scant 9% for third with $17.5 million, rising above my $12.7 million prediction. The ten-day tally is $45 million.

The Amateur was fourth with $7 million and I went a bit higher at $8.6 million. The Rami Malek spy flick stands at $27 million after two weekends.

Finally, Warfare rounded out the top five with $4.8 million (I said $5.4 million) for $17 million total in its second outing.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Until Dawn Box Office Prediction

After venturing into superhero territory with Shazam! and its sequel, David F. Sandberg reenters horror territory with Until Dawn on April 25th. Inspired by the 2015 PlayStation game, Ella Rubin, Michael Cimino (not the late Deer Hunter and Heaven’s Gate director), Odessa A’Zion, Ji-young Yoo, Belmont Cameli, and Peter Stormare star.

This survival scare fest from the filmmaker behind Lights Out and Annabelle: Creation is a test of Sony’s marketing muscle. The PS game did well and that could bleed over to cinematic sales. However, reaction to the trailer has been rather weak. Unless I’m grossly underestimating the draw of its source material, this may fail to reach $10 million.

Until Dawn opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million

For my The Accountant 2 prediction, click here:

The Accountant 2 Box Office Prediction

For my Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith re-release prediction, click here:

Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith Re-Release Box Office Prediction