Arriving in theaters a little later than anticipated, historical drama Chappaquiddick debuts next weekend. Directed by John Curran, the film recounts the 1969 car accident that killed Mary Jo Kopechne and Ted Kennedy’s role in it. Jason Clarke plays Kennedy with Kate Mara as Kopechne. Supporting players include Ed Helms, Bruce Dern, Jim Gaffigan, Taylor Nichols, and Clancy Brown.
The pic receives its first screening last fall at the Toronto Film Festival. Reviews were mostly positive and it stands at 64% on Rotten Tomatoes. That said, reaction was muted enough that Entertainment Studios moved it from its December 2017 awards qualifying run to this April roll out.
Chappaquiddick likely faces a tough road ahead. Premiering on approximately 1500 screens, its only real hope to appeal to older moviegoers who recall the events from nearly a half century ago. I’ll project that only gets this to $2-$3 million.
Chappaquiddick opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million
Upstart studio LD Entertainment is hoping for a crowd next weekend when TheMiracleSeason debuts. The sports drama tells the true story of a high school volleyball team whose captain dies suddenly and the inspiring aftermath of that event. Oscar winners Helen Hunt and William Hurt star alongside Erin Moriarty and Danika Yorush. Sean McNamara directs.
Slated to open on approximately 1700 screens, Season is hoping its PG rating and subject matter appeals to a young female audience. I’m not confident it reaches the demographic it intends to serve. I’ll estimate a gross under $5 million.
TheMiracleSeason opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million
Like its direct competitor A Quiet Place that also opens next weekend, Blockers made quite an impression with journalists and festival goers when it debuted at South by Southwest earlier this month. The raunchy comedy about parents trying to prevent their daughters plan to lose their virginity on prom night marks the directorial debut of Kay Cannon, best known for penning the Pitch Perfect franchise. The cast includes John Cena, Leslie Mann, Ike Barinholtz, Kathryn Newton, Graham Phillips, and Hannibal Buress.
Its festival premiere caused some buzz and it now stands at 91% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. The Universal release has now been pegged as a potential sleeper at the box office. Competition is light in the genre and the solid reviews should help. As I see it, the ceiling for Blockers is likely the $17 million achieved in February by Game Night, another comedy that received kudos from the critical community.
I’m not sure it will reach quite that high. I’ll project an opening in the low to mid teens and it could continue to play in subsequent weekends, just as Game Night has.
Blockers opening weekend prediction: $15.2 million
Next weekend, A Quiet Place looks to make a lot of noise at the box office and early indications are that it may well succeed. The horror pic comes from John Krasinski, best known to many as Jim from “The Office”. The director stars alongside his real life spouse Emily Blunt with Millicent Simmonds and Noah Jupe playing their children. The foursome play a family trying desperately to survive in a world terrorized by creatures that attack if you make a sound.
The Paramount release garnered significant buzz when it screened at the South by Southwest Festival earlier this year. Krasinski’s previous directorial outing, comedic drama 2016’s The Hollars, made little impression with moviegoers. Look for his career behind the camera to be on the upswing following this. Critical praise has been vocal and it’s currently at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The creepy and nearly silent trailers are effective and the marketplace seems primed for a hit in the genre.
Add all that up and I believe the opening for Quiet will be anything but. I could see this debuting between the $26 million achieved by 2016’s Don’t Breathe and the $33 million haul of last year’s Get Out.
A Quiet Place opening weekend prediction: $31.2 million
Three new films try to fill their box office Easter baskets with dollars this weekend as Steven Spielberg’s futuristic sci-fi adventure Ready Player One, Tyler Perry’s thriller Acrimony with Taraji P. Henson, and faith-based threequel God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness all open. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Ready Player should have no trouble being number one out of the gate. The big budget and well-reviewed pic opens wide on Thursday (a bit odd for a roll out), meaning it will have Wednesday night previews as well. I’ve got it slated for a mid 30s debut over the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend with a $50 million haul when factoring in the extra day. I will note that my projection has steadily risen since last week and we’ll see if I revise it up again before Wednesday evening.
The battle for #2 could be more interesting. Similar genre themed entries as Acrimony have grossed anywhere between low teens and mid 20s. I’ve got Acrimony on the lower end of that spectrum and that should still give it the runner-up spot in my view.
That’s because I’m anticipating a hefty sophomore weekend drop for Pacific Rim Uprising, the current #1. Its 2013 predecessor suffered a 57% dip in its second frame and I expect this to follow suit.
Percentage drop-offs should be much smaller for both Black Panther and I Can Only Imagine. I’m anticipating a photo finish between numbers 3-5.
My $5.1 million estimate for God’s Not Dead leaves it well outside the top 5.
And with that, here’s my top five Easter predictions:
1. Ready Player One
Predicted Gross: $36.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $50.8 million (Thursday to Sunday)
2. Acrimony
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
3. Pacific Rim Uprising
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million
4. Black Panther
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
5. I Can Only Imagine
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
Box Office Results (March 23-25)
Pacific Rim Uprising nabbed the top spot over the weekend with $28.1 million, above my $23.4 million prediction. While my estimate was low, its debut was quite a bit less than the $37 million achieved by its 2013 Guillermo del Toro directed predecessor. Look for it to see a big dip this weekend.
After five weeks perched at #1, Black Panther finally fell to second with $17 million (I said $17.9 million). Marvel is surely celebrating, however, as Panther is now the highest grossing Marvel Cinematic Universe film of all time with a total of $631 million – surpassing the $623 million made by 2012’s The Avengers.
I Could Only Imagine continued its highly impressive run in third place with $13.6 million (I was close at $13 million) to bring its two-week tally to $38 million. I look for it to experience a small decline over the Easter holiday.
Animated sequel Sherlock Gnomes had trouble detecting a solid family audience, opening in 4th place with a weak $10.6 million compared my $13.7 million projection. The seven-year gap between its predecessor Gnomeo and Juliet and this probably didn’t help.
Tomb Raider rounded out the top five in its disappointing run with $10.1 million (I was a touch higher at $11.2 million) for a ten-day tally of just $41 million.
Biblical drama Paul, Apostle of Christ failed to reach its intended audience in an 8th place opening at $5.1 million, on pace with my $5.5 million prediction.
YA romance Midnight Sun had a lackluster start with $4.1 million in 10th place, on target with my $4 million take.
Finally, the Steven Soderbergh iPhone shot thriller Unsane debuted in 11th place with $3.7 million, in line with my $3.9 million estimate.
This Easter weekend, God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness debuts in theaters. It is the third Christian themed drama in a franchise that began four years ago. Michael Mason directs a cast that includes David A.R. White, John Corbett, Shane Harper, Ted McGinley, Jennifer Taylor, Tatum O’Neal, rapper Shwayze, and Cissy Houston (mother of Whitney).
The Pure Flix release finds itself in direct competition with some similar genre fare. This is the third faith-based release in as many weeks. I Can Only Imagine will be in its third weekend and Paul, Apostle of Christ in its second. In 2014, God’s Not Dead premiered to $9.2 million and legged out splendidly to a $60 million domestic gross. Two years later, God’s Not Dead 2 couldn’t match it with a $7.6 million debut and only a $20 million overall total.
Even with the advantage of the Easter opening, the competition and dwindling fortune of part 2 could hinder this. I’ll predict it continues that downward trajectory.
God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million
Tyler Perry leaves Madea aside for Easter next weekend as he directs and writes the psychological thriller Acrimony. The tale of a cheating husband and a vengeful wife stars Taraji P. Henson, Lyriq Bent, Crystle Stewart, and Jazmyn Simon. The Lionsgate release hopes to capitalize on Mr. Perry’s involvement, as well as Ms. Henson, who’s had some successes on the big and small screen.
There are certainly some similar genre comps to put this up against. The trick is figuring out where it will fall. Will it play like Henson’s own No Good Deed from 2014, which debuted to a stellar $24.2 million? Or the $25.6 million achieved by The Perfect Guy in 2015? In 2016, When the Bough Breaks managed $14.2 million. How about some other non-comedic directorial efforts from Perry: $21.6 million opening for Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor or $15.5 million for Good Deeds? On the low end, what about the measly $4.7 million from last year’s Unforgettable?
My hunch is a low to mid teens gross is probably the ticket, just below the gross of Bough.
Acrimony opening weekend prediction: $13.2 million
Opening over Easter weekend, Steven Spielberg attempts to delve into our collective member berries with the release of Ready Player One. Based on the 2011 Ernest Cline bestseller, the futuristic adventure stars Tye Sheridan as a gamer entering a virtual reality world chock-full of 1980s pop culture references and beyond. The Warner Bros release comes with a reported $175 million budget. The supporting cast includes Olivia Cooke, Ben Mendelsohn, T.J. Miller, Simon Pegg, Letitia Wright, and Mark Rylance. There’s also appearances from Freddy Krueger, the DeLorean from Back to the Future, Sonic the Hedgehog, and many more. I’ll also note the picture is set in the place I call home – Columbus, Ohio.
Ready premiered at the South by Southwest Film Festival to mostly acclaim and it currently stands at 79% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some reviews have called it Spielberg’s most accessible and inspired work in quite some time. Even though it’s based on a known novel, questions abound as to how it will perform. Having Mr. Spielberg’s name attached doesn’t automatically generate dollars anymore, though it certainly doesn’t hurt (especially in a genre like this).
It opens on Thursday (meaning Wednesday night showings) and that’s a break from the typical release pattern. Generous estimates put this at a $50 million roll out with $35 million on the lower end. This is a toughie. I’ll estimate Player manages to reach mid 30s for the traditional portion of the weekend and possibly hit that $50 million number when factoring in its Wednesday sneaks and full day on Thursday.
Ready Player One opening weekend prediction: $36.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $50.8 million (Thursday to Sunday)
We have a quintet of pictures entering the marketplace this weekend and it may mean Black Panther is dethroned after five weeks atop the charts. They are: sci-fi sequel Pacific Rim Uprising, animated sequel Sherlock Gnomes, Biblical drama Paul, Apostle of Christ, YA romance Midnight Sun, and psychological thriller Unsane. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all of them here:
Even though I have the Pacific follow-up generating less coin than its 2013 predecessor, its haul should be enough to have it rise to the top. That said, Black Panther has continually defied expectations and held off other high-profile titles such as A Wrinkle in Time and Tomb Raider from getting to first place.
Sherlock Gnomes is a question mark in my view. Its predecessor – 2011’s Gnomeo and Juliet – had a solid $25 million opening, but that was seven long years ago. My lower teens estimate may nab it a third place showing.
If Sherlock fails to meet expectations, it could allow Tomb Raider or I Could Only Imagine to place third. The second weekend of Imagine should particularly be interesting to watch as it significantly topped all expectations and could be set for a small drop based on word-of-mouth. Raider, on the other hand, should lose arouns half its audience after a disappointing start.
Paul, Apostle of Christ is slated to open on only about 1400 screens and my $5.5 million estimate for it puts it outside the top 5. I also expect the other two newbies to debut weakly with Midnight Sun predicted at $4 million and Unsane at $3.9 million.
And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend ahead:
1. Pacific Rim Uprising
Predicted Gross: $23.4 million
2. Black Panther
Predicted Gross: $17.9 million
3. Sherlock Gnomes
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million
4. I Can Only Imagine
Predicted Gross: $13 million
5. Tomb Raider
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
Box Office Results (March 16-18)
Black Panther held off Lara Croft and was #1 for the fifth consecutive weekend. It’s the first picture to accomplish that feat since Avatar eight years ago. The Marvel behemoth grossed $26.6 million (in line with my $25.7 million projection) to bring its total to $605 million. It currently sits at 7th on the all-time domestic earners list and this coming weekend, it should supplant The Avengers at #5 to become the highest grossing comic book adaptation ever in the United States.
Tomb Raider had to settle for the runner-up position with $23.6 million, shy of my $26.4 million prediction. The franchise reboot got off to a shaky start and future sequels appear questionable at best.
The box office story of the weekend was faith-based musical drama I Can Only Imagine, which astonished predictors like me with a third place opening of $17.1 million. I was, um, a bit lower at $5.4 million. Imagine has clearly captivated Christian audiences and it posted the largest per screen average of any pic in the top 10. With the Easter holiday approaching, it could be in for a bountiful road ahead.
A Wrinkle in Time dropped to fourth with $16.2 million (I said $16.4 million) in weekend #2, bringing its lackluster tally to $60 million. At this point, it appears questionable that it will reach $100 million domestically.
Love, Simon took the five spot with $11.7 million, a bit under my $13.3 million estimate. The coming-of-age drama did receive positive reviews and audience word-of-mouth is strong, so it could experience small declines in coming weekends.
I incorrectly had Game Night at #5 until Imagine upended that, but it grossed $5.6 million for sixth. My prediction? $5.6 million!
Finally, 7 Days in Entebbe failed to bring in an audience, debuting in 13th place with $1.5 million. On the bright side (?), it did top my $972,000 forecast.
Shot in secret last year, psychological thriller Unsane arrives on screens next weekend. It comes from Oscar-winning director Steven Soderbergh and premiered at the Berlin Film Festival recently. Claire Foy of “The Crown” fame stars alongside an eclectic supporting cast that includes Joshua Leonard, Juno Temple, SNL alum Jay Pharoah, Amy Irving, and paralympic athlete Aimee Mullins.
Reviews have been mostly positive as it currently sits at 74% on Rotten Tomatoes. The low-budget enterprise was shot entirely on an iPhone 7 Plus and continues Soderbergh’s experimentation with the cinematic medium. The secrecy surrounding the project may contribute to a unawareness among the general public of its very existence.
Unsane will likely struggle to find an audience in theaters and hope for more eyeballs when it reaches the On Demand circuit.
Unsane opening weekend prediction: $3.9 million
For my Pacific Rim Uprising prediction, click here:
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