Tag: box office predictions

Ralph Breaks the Internet Box Office Prediction

Disney is no stranger to debuting high-profile titles over the long Turkey Day weekend and they’re back at it again with Ralph Breaks the Internet. It’s the sequel to 2012’s Wreck–It–Ralph and brings back the vocal stylings of John C. Reilly, Sarah Silverman, Jack McBrayer, Jane Lynch, and Ed O’Neill. New actors behind the mic include Gal Gadot, Taraji P. Henson, and Alfred Molina. Rich Moore and Phil Johnston direct.

While we’re not in Incredibles 2 territory as far as expectations, Ralph is forecasted to easily break into the top spot for the Thanksgiving holiday. The original made $49 million for its start six years ago and ended up with $189 million.

Animated sequels can and have exceeded debut earnings of their predecessors. There’s been several years for kids to watch the original repeatedly and Internet could also appeal to younger adults. As mentioned, the Mouse Factory likes this frame for their drawn efforts. On the high-end, there’s Frozen, which made $93 million over the full Wednesday to Sunday frame ($67 million traditional weekend). On the low-end is The Good Dinosaur with a $55 million five-day ($39 million three-day). Two years ago, Moana took in $82 million ($56 million Friday to Sunday). Last year it was Coco with $72 million ($50 million three-day).

So where does this fit in? I like it falling in between Disney’s output from the last two years. That means I’m estimating it slightly outshines Wreck–It for the traditional weekend with upper 70s for the whole holiday.

Ralph Breaks the Internet opening weekend prediction: $54.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $79.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Creed II prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/14/creed-ii-box-office-prediction/

For my Robin Hood prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/14/robin-hood-box-office-prediction/

For my Green Book prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/17/green-book-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: November 16-18

A trio of newbies enter the marketplace in the pre-Thanksgiving weekend as J.K. Rowling’s latest wizard tale Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Mark Wahlberg family comedy Instant Family, and critically hailed ensemble heist drama Widows debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/06/fantastic-beasts-the-crimes-of-grindelwald-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/07/instant-family-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/07/widows-box-office-prediction/

There’s little doubt that Beasts will easily take its perch atop the charts, as every Rowling based pic has going back to Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone seventeen years ago. I’ve got it premiering just under its predecessor Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them in November 2016.

After it solid start, The Grinch should drop to second place. The direct competition from Beasts could mean a drop in the low to possibly mid 40s.

The rest of the top 5 gets interesting as Bohemian Rhapsody enters its third frame and battles with the newcomers. I’ve become a bit more convinced that Family will manage to outdo Widows out of the gate. If we take the Freddie Mercury biopic down about 40%, it could slightly edge Family.

Here’s my take on the weekend’s high five:

1. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

Predicted Gross: $70.1 million

2. The Grinch

Predicted Gross: $38.6 million

3. Bohemian Rhapsody

Predicted Gross: $19.5 million

4. Instant Family

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

5. Widows

Predicted Gross: $15.8 million

Box Office Results (November 9–11)

It was sturdy holiday greetings for The Grinch as the animated Christmas flick took in $67.5 million, a bit ahead of my $63.4 million projection. There’s plenty of competition in the pipeline, but this should still play well throughout the upcoming season.

Bohemian Rhapsody was second in its sophomore weekend at $31.2 million (I said $29.8 million). In just ten days, it’s hit the $100 million mark.

Zombie war pic Overlord opened in third with a so-so $10.2 million, chomping past my $8.2 million estimate. It wasn’t expected to be this weekend’s #2 newcomer, but that has more to do with another film coming up in the recap.

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms dropped to fourth with $10 million, on pace with my $10.2 million prediction. The Disney disappointment has made $35 million in two weeks.

A Star Is Born was fifth with $8.1 million (I said $8 million) to bring its haul to $178 million.

Opening in sixth place was The Girl in the Spider’s Web with a meager $7.8 million compared to my $9.4 million take. The soft reboot of the franchise could not connect with audiences seven years following the successful The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.

Lastly, today we lost an icon who created many of the heroes and villains that have dominated pop culture and our 21st century cinematic universe. RIP Stan Lee and thank you.

Instant Family Box Office Prediction

Mark Wahlberg and Rose Byrne are a couple who bring in a trio of foster kids in next weekend’s comedy Instant Family. The pic reunites Wahlberg with director Sean Anders, who made both of the successful Daddy’s Home features. Costars include Isabela Moner, Octavia Spencer, and Tig Notaro.

Family was originally scheduled to hit screens in February 2019 before Paramount pushed up the date. It will try to bring in family audiences on a weekend where Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald opens directly against it and The Grinch will be in its sophomore frame. That could certainly limit the potential for a robust debut, but the studio will hope that word of mouth carries it to a leggy run over the holidays.

I’ll predict a high teens teens premiere is what we’ll see as the currently unknown buzz will determine the rest of its fate.

Instant Family opening weekend prediction: $19.4 million

For my Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/06/fantastic-beasts-the-crimes-of-grindelwald-box-office-prediction/

For my Widows prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/07/widows-box-office-prediction/

Widows Box Office Prediction

Widows is Steve McQueen’s follow-up to 2013’s Oscar winning 12 Years a Slave and it boasts an impressive cast and its own awards buzz. Viola Davis headlines the heist thriller alongside Michelle Rodriguez, Elizabeth Debicki, Cynthia Erivo, Colin Farrell, Brian Tyree Henry, Daniel Kaluuya, Jacki Weaver, Carrie Coon, Robert Duvall, and Liam Neeson.

Opening next weekend, the film sits at 96% on Rotten Tomatoes. It could potentially contend in Best Picture, Actress (Davis), Supporting Actor (Kaluuya) and its Adapted Screenplay from Gone Girl and Sharp Objects writer Gillian Flynn. So how will that translate to box office bucks?

I believe the likelihood is that Widows will succeed in appealing to action fans and manage to bring in a sizable female audience. Yet it should also be the type of performer that experiences solid holds from weekend to weekend and not necessarily have a huge opening. Mid teens appears to be the correct forecast for its start.

Widows opening weekend prediction: $15.8 million

For my Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/06/fantastic-beasts-the-crimes-of-grindelwald-box-office-prediction/

For my Instant Family prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/07/instant-family-box-office-prediction/

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Box Office Prediction

The wizarding world of J.K. Rowling is back next weekend when Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald debuts. This is the follow-up to 2016’s Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, which precedes the events of the massive Harry Potter franchise. David Yates (who made the last four Potter flicks and the first Beasts) is back directing. Returning cast members include Eddie Redmayne, Katherine Waterston, Dan Fogler, Alison Sudol, Ezra Miller, Zoe Kravitz, and Johnny Depp, whose role as the villainous title character will expand from his cameo in the predecessor. Jude Law joins the party as a younger Dumbledore.

There is no doubt that Grindelwald will easily top the charts upon its release, just as all Rowling universe titles have. The real question is how it opens in comparison to 2016’s effort, which premiered on the same November weekend. I believe there’s some solid historical data to consider.

In 2001, the first Potter film (The Sorcerer’s Stone) made $90 million out of the gate. One year later, follow-up Chamber of Secrets made just a tad less at $88 million. This seems like a likely scenario with Grindewald. 

The first Beasts took in $74.4 million for its start two years ago and I’ll put the sequel right under that for a low 70s beginning.

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald opening weekend prediction: $70.1 million

For my Widows prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/07/widows-box-office-prediction/

For my Instant Family prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/07/instant-family-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: November 9-11

Illumination Entertainment’s animated The Grinch looks to steal the box office crown from Bohemian Rhapsody after its killer opening this past weekend. We also have The Girl in the Spider’s Web and Overlord debuting and vying for some of the same audience members. You can find my detailed estimates on the trio of newbies right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/30/the-grinch-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/30/the-girl-in-the-spiders-web-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/30/overlord-box-office-prediction/

My mid 60s start for The Grinch easily places it in the top spot as it looks like to play well into the holiday season, even with plenty of family related competition coming soon.

Bohemian, despite very mixed reviews, played well with the masses and I don’t see it dropping more than mid 40s in its sophomore frame. The runner-up spot should be no problem for it.

As for the other newcomers, I have soured on Spider’s Web. My initial projection of $13.7 million has dwindled to $9.4 million. Depending on how Disney’s The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (after a muted opening) drops in weekend #2, it could find itself in a battle for third place.

Despite positive critical notices, I’m skeptical that Overlord reaches its intended audience and I have it placing fifth with a sub double digits debut. If it opens much under that, it could be in danger of being sixth behind A Star Is Born. 

And with that, my top 6 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. The Grinch

Predicted Gross: $63.4 million

2. Bohemian Rhapsody

Predicted Gross: $29.8 million

3. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

4. The Girl in the Spider’s Web

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

5. Overlord

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

6. A Star Is Born

Predicted Gross: $8 million

Box Office Results (November 2-4)

Bohemian Rhapsody rocked out to a tremendous start with $51 million, easily outpacing my $41.8 million forecast. The Freddie Mercury biopic managed to outdo October’s debut for A Star Is Born. It’s likely to continue to play well throughout the month.

Disney experienced a rare letdown with The Nutcracker and the Four Realms as it opened in second to an unremarkable $20.3 million. It did manage to just top my $19.4 million estimate. The film will hope for smallish declines in the coming weeks, but competition for families and little ones is significant in November.

Tyler Perry’s comedy Nobody’s Fool starring Tiffany Haddish had a so-so premiere in third with $13.7 million, in range with my $14.5 million projection. That’s roughly half of what Haddish’s September pic Night School accomplished out of the gate.

A Star Is Born was fourth with $11 million (I said $9.7 million) to brings its total to $165 million.

Now that its namesake holiday has passed, Halloween took a tumble in weekend #3 to fifth with $10.8 million (I was higher at $14.1 million). Nevertheless the $10 million production has amassed a fantastic $150 million thus far.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Overlord Box Office Prediction

Horror audiences have been treated to lots of zombies over the past few years on the big and small screen. Yet in Overlord, we get to witness the undead in World War II! That’s the basic premise of the J.J. Abrams produced genre pic out next weekend from director Julius Ray. The cast includes Jovan Adepo, Wyatt Russell, Mathilde Ollivier, Pilou Asbaek, Jacob Anderson, and Bokeem Woodine.

Reviews for this exercise have been strong since it premiered at Fantastic Fest last month and it currently holds an 88% score on Rotten Tomatoes. The opportunity for this to be a cult hit is very real, but its initial box office earnings might be just fair. The Girl in the Spider’s Web presents some direct competition while casual horror enthusiasts may have had their fill with Halloween. A decent comp could be both 28 Days Later and 28 Weeks Later, which respectively made $10 million and $9.8 million for their starts. I’ll put this a bit under those.

Overlord opening weekend prediction: $8.2 million

For my The Grinch prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/30/the-grinch-box-office-prediction/

For my The Girl in the Spider’s Web prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/30/the-girl-in-the-spiders-web-box-office-prediction/

The Girl in the Spider’s Web Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (11/08/18): And another revision down to $9.4 million

Blogger’s Note (11/05/18): I am revising my estimate down to $11.7 million from original estimate of $13.7 million

The Girl in the Spider’s Web makes its way to stateside multiplexes next weekend nearly seven years after David Fincher’s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Mr. Fincher is nowhere to be found nor is Rooney Mara as computer hacking heroine Lisbeth. Claire Foy takes over the title role with Don’t Breathe maker Fede Alvarez directing. Costars include Sverrir Gudnason, LaKeith Stanfield, Sylvia Hoeks, Stephen Merchant, and Vicky Krieps.

It’s based on the wildly popular series of novels began by the late Stieg Larsson. This one in particular is adapted from the 2015 book by David Lagercrantz. The long layoff and different personnel involved could present some box office challenges. Reviews are mixed thus far as it stands at 73% on Rotten Tomatoes. There’s also direct competition in the form of Overlord, which will be vying for much of the same audience.

Comparing numbers with Tattoo is a tricky proposition. That eagerly awaited pic’s traditional opening weekend number was $12.7 million, but that’s with a huge asterisk. It opened Christmas weekend of 2011 when the holiday fell on a Sunday. Tattoo rolled out on Wednesday and Monday was counted as part of a long weekend. So its six-day earnings totaled out to $27.8 million. At the end of its run, it made $102 million.

Web is highly unlikely to approach those earnings. While it certainly could technically match Tattoo‘s traditional Friday to Sunday debut, there will be none of that extra holiday dough. I actually think a fair comp is September’s Peppermint with Jennifer Garner at $13.4 million and that’s right in the range of where I have Spider landing.

The Girl in the Spider’s Web opening weekend prediction: $9.4 million

For my The Grinch prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/30/the-grinch-box-office-prediction/

For my Overlord prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/30/overlord-box-office-prediction/

The Grinch Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note: on the eve of its premiere, I’m giving this a bump from $56.4 million to $63.4 million

Illumination Entertainment’s The Grinch looks to be a profitable one when it hits theaters next weekend. The animated take on the Dr. Seuss classic features the voice of Benedict Cumberbatch as the grumpy Christmas hating character. Other voice over work is provided by Cameron Seely, Rashida Jones, Kenan Thompson, Angela Lansbury, and Pharrell Williams. Scott Mosier and Yarrow Cheney (who co-directed Illumination’s The Secret Life of Pets) are the filmmakers.

In 2000, the live-action version of this tale with Jim Carrey was a massive smash for Universal (Illumination’s parent company). There has been plenty of family pics over the last couple of months and The Grinch will get plenty more competition in following weekends. Both Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald and Ralph Breaks the Internet are on deck.

That said, Illumination has had an impressive track record during this decade with the Despicable Me/Minions franchise and Pets. This is their first foray into the month of November, but plenty of other studios have planted their animated flag into the same time frame. In 2012, Wreck-It Ralph took in $49 million for its start. Two years later, Big Hero 6 made $56 million. In 2015, The Peanuts Movie started with $44 million and Trolls premiered to $46 million a year later. Yet the best comp could end up being 2000’s How the Grinch Stole Christmas, which bowed to $55 million. I’ll put it just over that as this Grinch looks to leg out well throughout the holiday season.

The Grinch opening weekend prediction: $63.4 million

For my The Girl in the Spider’s Web prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/30/the-girl-in-the-spiders-web-box-office-prediction/

For my Overlord prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/30/overlord-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: November 2-4

Blogger’s Note (10/30/18): My estimate for Bohemian Rhapsody has increased from $31.8M to $41.8M

A flurry of box office activity greets November as three new releases are unveiled. We have the Queen musical extravaganza Bohemian Rhapsody, Disney’s fantasy adventure The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, and Tyler Perry directed Tiffany Haddish comedy Nobody’s Fool. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/23/bohemian-rhapsody-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/24/the-nutcracker-and-the-four-realms-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/24/nobodys-fool-box-office-prediction/

Rhapsody appears poised to, ahem, be the champion. How much it earns is very much in question. Forecasts have it anywhere between $25-$35 million. Reviews have been mixed, but the band’s fan base and rocking trailers have the potential to make the point moot. The film has the potential to over perform ($40 million is in the cards), but I’m estimating it ends up falling in the middle of current projections. **Note updated above.

As for The Nutcracker, it’s risky to underestimate the marketing power of the Mouse Factory. That said, buzz for this seems curiously muted. While it should have no problem nabbing the runner-up spot, I believe it will do so with less than $20 million.

Tiffany Haddish has had a pair of hits with Girls Trip last summer and Night School just a month ago. The latter had the benefit of featuring Kevin Hart. My prediction for Fool gives it about half of what School made out of the gate. That could put it in a battle for third place with the third weekend of current champ Halloween, with A Star Is Born rounding out the top five.

And with that, my top 5 take on as November comes in:

1. Bohemian Rhapsody

Predicted Gross: $41.8 million

2. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

3. Nobody’s Fool

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million

4. Halloween

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million

5. A Star Is Born

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million

Box Office Results (October 26-28)

As expected, Halloween easily topped the charts for the second weekend in a row with $31.4 million, a bit below my $35.4 million estimate. The latest pairing of Michael Myers and Laurie Strode has taken in $126 million. That already gives it the all-time franchise earner by far (the previous record was 2007’s remake at $58 million).

For the fourth weekend in a row, A Star Is Born held the #2 spot with $14 million, a tad higher than my take of $13.3 million. It’s up to $148 million with $200 million in its sights.

Venom was third with $10.6 million (I was right there at $10.5 million) for an overall tally of $187 million.

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween was fourth with $7.2 million (I said $6.9 million) for $38 million thus far.

None of the newcomers performed well. Hunter Killer managed just a fifth place showing with $6.6 million, not matching my $8.2 million prediction.

Jonah Hill’s directorial debut Mid90s expanded nationally with middling results in 10th with $2.9 million (I said $3.6 million).

In 12th place was Johnny English Strikes Back with $1.6 million compared to my $1.3 million projection. Faith-based drama Indivisible was 13th with $1.5 million (I said $1 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…