Tag: Born on the Fourth of July

Oscar Predictions: Digger

From 2003-2015, Alejandro González Iñárritu’s five directorial efforts in a row (21 Grams, Babel, Biutiful, Birdman, The Revenant) resulted in ten acting nominations at the Oscars and a win for Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant. The filmmaker himself collected two directorial victories in a row with Birdman and The Revenant while the former won Best Picture.

Tom Cruise is probably the biggest movie star on the planet over the last four decades. He’s a three-time Academy nominee (in lead for Born on the Fourth of July and Jerry Maguire and supporting for Magnolia) who’s yet to be in the mix during the 21st century.

The collaboration of Iñárritu and Cruise for this weekend’s satire Digger was rightly looked at as a major awards contender that could finally land its lead a statue (not counting his honorary Oscar that came months ago). And why not honor John Goodman, a beloved character actor never up for an Academy Award, with a first go at Supporting Actor? Other costars include Riz Ahmed, Sandra Hüller, Michael Stuhlbarg, and Jesse Plemons.

With the review embargo lifted, a lot of the aforementioned narrative has been buried. Rotten Tomatoes is at 51% with Metacritic even lower at 44. Critical reaction is widely varied. There are truly positive write-ups with others calling it an unmitigated disaster. Box office potential appears limited and I’m projecting it will bomb with just over $11 million out of the gate domestically.

Are the Oscar chances dead? In the main categories, a strong argument can be made in the affirmative. It may stand an outside shot at following the Don’t Look Up path. That 2021 political black comedy from Adam McKay holds similar numbers on RT/MC. The difference is that the 2026 lineup of BP contenders appears stronger and Up was generally considered a widely viewed Netflix effort. Digger seems headed for the stench of financial failure.

As for Cruise, he would have zero chance of winning. Without that narrative, I don’t see him getting into the final five. Conventional wisdom put Goodman in as the Supporting Actor hopeful. It’s Ahmed who’s being called the standout among the rest of the ensemble. Hüller was bandied about though her supporting turn in Project Hail Mary seems more feasible now and she has an even stronger chance in lead with Rose. Ultimately I doubt the cast factors into those races at all.

Digger‘s best and perhaps only opportunities to show up on Oscar night 2027 are for Makeup & Hairstyling and Production Design. I had it predicted for both in my update two days ago and I suspect that could remain the case moving forward. I’m slightly more confident about Makeup & Hairstyling. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

We are a couple weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and they can be found here:

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

We arrive at Best Actor. When I did my first picks for last year’s race, I correctly named one of the eventual five nominees and that was Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme. In Other Possibilities, I identified Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another. At that early juncture, I did not list the eventual winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), or Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

For this premiere post, it’s probable that we already know one member of the quintet and that’s Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary. His film is a box office juggernaut and he has to carry much of the running time by himself. If he makes the cut, it would mark his fourth attempt at the gold statue behind lead noms for Half Nelson and La La Land and a supporting nod for Barbie.

He’s not the only star potentially in line for a fourth mention. The same holds true for Tom Cruise in Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu’s Digger. He won an honorary Oscar at the 98th ceremony, but is 0 for 3 in the competitive races are being up in lead for Born on the Fourth of July and Jerry Maguire and in supporting for Magnolia.

We aren’t finished yet talking about thespians getting their fourth nominations. Matt Damon contended for lead in Good Will Hunting and The Martian and a supporting turn in Invictus. His 4th try could come via Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey.

John Malkovich is probably going lead for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine after two supporting attempts for Places in the Heart and In the Line of Fire. He could make it in for the first time in 33 years.

For my fifth pick, I’m perhaps going out a limb and selecting Robert Aramayo (I Swear) who pulled off a BAFTA upset in Best Actor weeks ago. It comes out stateside in a couple of weeks and could have enough staying power for the BAFTA recipient to stake a claim. I’ll admit this a long shot projection, but hey it’s early right?

The speculation will continue in earnest during the weeks and months ahead, but here’s the first snapshot for Best Actor. Best Actress up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Tom Cruise, Digger

Matt Damon, The Odyssey

Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

Adam Driver, Paper Tiger

Andrew Garfield, Artificial

Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

Jaafar Jackson, Michael

Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Will Poulter, Saturn Return

Dominic Sessa, Tony

Sebastian Stan, Fjord

Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

Oscar Predictions – Top Gun: Maverick

Top Gun: Maverick was supposed to arrive a mere 34 years after its iconic predecessor. Due to numerous COVID delays, it now hits theaters on May 27th and some 36 years behind the original. By nearly all accounts, Tom Cruise and the filmmakers have landed the plane.

Ahead of its Cannes premiere, the review embargo has lapsed for Maverick and the Rotten Tomatoes score is a sizzling 96%. Nearly all critics are calling it an improvement over the ’86 blockbuster and it could be in line to give Cruise his largest opening and overall hit of his career (my box office prediction will arrive next week).

Three and a half decades back, part one caught the attention of Academy voters in four categories. The Berlin theme “Take My Breath Away” won Best Song and Gun nabbed nods for Film Editing, Sound, and Sound Effects Editing. All those races are in play again in one form or another.

Best Sound has been condensed to one category and it’s a near lock that the sequel will play there. Film Editing, Cinematography, and Visual Effects are also possibilities. Then there’s the sound of Lady Gaga’s voice. The superstar contributed the track “Hold My Hand” and it could be hard to beat. Ms. Gaga is poised for her third Song nomination behind 2015’s “Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground and “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (which won). She also shares Score credit with Hans Zimmer (who just won a trophy for Dune) and Harold Faltermeyer (best known for his Beverly Hills Cop tune “Axel F”).

Let’s assume Sound and Song are gimmes. With the aforementioned others, we could be looking at a handful of mentions. Will the Academy go beyond the tech derbies? It looks like Maverick will be a gigantic earner and crowdpleaser. I have no doubt there will be a push from Paramount for Best Picture recognition and Cruise in Best Actor. If so, it would be his fourth acting nod. There were two in lead for 1989’s Born on the Fourth of July and 1996’s Jerry Maguire and a supporting mention for 1999’s Magnolia. He’s never made a victorious trip to the podium.

I’m skeptical about it playing in the major leagues, but wins in Sound and Song are doable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…