Tag: Borderlands

January 17-19 Box Office Predictions

Blumhouse’s horror remake Wolf Man looks to dominate the box office charts this weekend while Keke Palmer and SZA headline the buddy comedy One of Them Days. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Wolf Man Box Office Prediction
One of Them Days Box Office Prediction

Sporting a meager budget of reportedly $7 million, Wolf Man from The Invisible Man director Leigh Whannell could see a gross close to $20 million (or at least low to mid teens in the worst case scenario). That should mean an easy perch at #1 under either scenario.

As for One of Them Days, it has a shot of exceeding my expectations. However, my mid to single digits take should mean a fourth or fifth place showing depending on the drops of holdovers.

Den of Thieves 2: Pantera was able to snag the top spot this past weekend (more on that below). It may slide to third with a mid 40s decline with Mufasa: The Lion King staying put in second if it drops in the low to mid 30s.

Here’s how I envision the high five shaking out:

1. Wolf Man

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million

2. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

3. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

4. One of Them Days

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

5. Sonic the Hedgehog 3

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

Box Office Results (January 10-12)

Gerard Butler scored bragging rights as Den of Thieves 2: Pantera managed first position with $15 million. That’s ahead of my $13.3 million forecast and right in line with the $15.2 million that its 2018 predecessor achieved for its start. This is a much needed boost for Lionsgate after a 2024 littered with bombs including Borderlands, The Crow, and Megalopolis.

Mufasa: The Lion King, after two weeks atop the box office mountain, was runner-up with $14.2 million. That’s on pace with my $14.4 million call as the Disney property’s fortunes rose to $189 million after four weeks.

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was third with $11.3 million, on target with my $10.9 million prediction. The Sega threequel has amassed $204 million during its four-week run.

Nosferatu was fourth with $6.8 million, falling below my $8.6 million estimate. This horror remake stands at $81 million after three weeks.

Finally, Moana 2 rounded out the top five with $6.5 million (I said $6.3 million). The Mouse House sequel has grossed $434 million in seven weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

White Bird Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (10/03): With the announcement that White Bird is only hitting just over 1000 screens, I’m downgrading my prediction from $3.1 million to $1.5 million

White Bird at last flies into theaters after significant delays on October 4th. The period drama is a prequel to 2017’s blockbuster Wonder. Like that hit, it’s based on source material from R.J. Palacio. Marc Forster directs and the cast includes Ariella Glaser, Orlando Schwerdt, Bryce Gheisar, Gillian Anderson, and Helen Mirren.

Lionsgate originally was slated to release Bird in September 2022 and then in summer 2023 before finally landing on this date. The distributor has seemingly been conducting a yard sale of flops over the past several weeks such as Borderlands, The Crow, The Killer’s Game, Never Let Go, and Megalopolis.

I don’t see White Bird reversing the trend. Wonder was seven years ago, but a bigger problem might be that audiences aren’t aware of the prequel’s existence. Like the aforementioned features, hitting $5 million out of the gate might be a challenge.

White Bird opening weekend prediction: $1.5 million

For my Joker: Folie à Deux prediction, click here:

Joker: Folie à Deux Box Office Prediction

Megalopolis Box Office Prediction

Financed on his own dime for $120 million, legendary filmmaker Francis Ford Coppola brings his passion project Megalopolis to the big screen on September 27th. The sci-fi epic has a sprawling cast to match its budget including Adam Driver, Giancarlo Esposito, Nathalie Emmanuel, Aubrey Plaza, Shia LaBeouf, Jon Voight, Laurence Fishburne, Talia Shire, Jason Schwartzman, Kathryn Hunter, Chloe Fineman, and Dustin Hoffman.

This is only Coppola’s fourth feature in the 21st century and his first in 13 years (since the little seen Twixt). Cinephiles should have an interest on that fact alone, but there should be struggles for this to have any sort of mainstream breakthrough. When Megalopolis premiered at Cannes, it did so with mixed to negative reactions (the RT score is 52 and Metacritic is 59). It may not help that Coppola was recently subject to news stories about unprofessional behavior on set.

Lionsgate picked up distribution and they’ve had a string of failures in recent weeks including Borderlands and The Crow. This may turn out to be the biggest bomb of all. Tracking is suggesting only mid single digits and I don’t see it getting beyond that.

Megalopolis opening weekend prediction: $4.7 million

For my The Wild Robot prediction, click here:

The Wild Robot Box Office Prediction

Never Let Go Box Office Prediction

Never Let Go tries to avoid a recent Lionsgate curse when it opens this Friday. That might be unavoidable for the Alexandre Aja (Crawl) directed horror flick starring Halle Berry. Percy Daggs IV, Anthony B. Jenkins, Matthew Kevin Anderson, Christin Park, and Stephanie Lavigne costar.

The survival tale seems to be flying considerably under the radar. As mentioned, Lionsgate had been experiencing an onslaught of financial underachievers over the last few weeks thanks to Borderlands, The Crow, and The Killer’s Game.

It also won’t help that genre fans have had plenty of material in 2024 and Speak No Evil will be in its sophomore frame. Mid single digits is where I’m going with this.

Never Let Go opening weekend prediction: $4.7 million

For my Transformers One prediction, click here:

Transformers One Box Office Prediction

The Killer’s Game Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate is looking for heavy multiplex play for The Killer’s Game when it opens September 13th. The action comedy from director J.J. Perry stars Dave Bautista as an assassin fending off competitors. Sofia Boutella, Terry Crews, Bautista’s Guardians of the Galaxy costar Pom Klementieff, Scott Adkins, Marko Zaror, and Ben Kingsley costar.

It’s been a rough go for Lionsgate recently. In August, the studio had two of the summer’s biggest busts with Borderlands and The Crow. I don’t see Game reversing their fortunes in early autumn. Out on approximately 2500 screens, mid single digits seems likely.

The Killer’s Game opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million

For my Speak No Evil prediction, click here:

Speak No Evil Box Office Prediction

The Crow Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate Films is currently reeling from Borderlands performing a box office belly flop. On August 23rd, they hope The Crow reboot flies higher with moviegoers. Bill Skarsgård trades in the Pennywise makeup for the comic book based vigilante hero first made famous onscreen 30 years ago by Brandon Lee (who was killed in an onset tragedy during filming). Costars include FKA Twigs, Danny Huston, and Josette Simon. Rupert Sanders, who was behind the camera on Snow White and the Huntsman and Ghost in the Shell, directs.

While this is the fifth feature in the franchise, it is the first in nearly 20 years. Fun fact: Skarsgård is the fifth actor to play the title role following Lee, Vincent Perez, Eric Mabius, and Edward Furlong. The last two entries from 2000 and 2005 experienced limited theatrical runs before going the direct-to-video route.

1994’s original gained plenty of notoriety due to the death of its lead. It also struck a chord with youth culture and was assisted by a hit soundtrack. Fans of that picture are three decades older and probably have little interest in this long-in-development project which at times had Bradley Cooper, Jason Momoa, and others attached.

The marketing campaign seems muted. General brand recognition could get this to $10 million, but it may fall a bit under that. That’s not much to crow about considering the reported $50 million budget.

The Crow opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million

For my Blink Twice prediction, click here:

Blink Twice Box Office Prediction

For my The Forge prediction, click here:

The Forge Box Office Prediction

August 16-18 Box Office Predictions

Alien: Romulus will attempt to dethrone Deadpool & Wolverine after three weeks atop the charts while Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure looks to bring in youngsters and their parents. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Alien: Romulus Box Office Prediction
Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure Box Office Prediction

The seventh feature in the Alien series dating back 45 years should grind out a #1 showing if it manages to hit in the lower to mid 30s or above. I have it coming in a bit under what 2017 predecessor Alien: Covenant achieved ($36 million).

Deadpool & Wolverine would fall to the #2 slot in its fourth frame, easing somewhere between 40-45%. It Ends with Us, starring Mrs. Deadpool Blake Lively, might lose around half its audience in its sophomore outing after a spectacular start (more on that below).

As for Ryan’s World the Movie: Titans Universe Adventure, it’s a giant question mark. Based on a popular YouTube channel that attracts plenty of kiddos, I have it in the mid single digits. That would put it in fifth after Twisters. However, I do think it has the capacity to over perform. Or… it could totally flop. I freely admitted in my longer write-up that I’m flying blind with this one.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 playing out:

1. Alien: Romulus

Predicted Gross: $35.2 million

2. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $29.5 million

3. It Ends with Us

Predicted Gross: $27.9 million

4. Twisters

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

5. Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

Box Office Results (August 9-11)

Despite a serious challenge, the MCU reigned supreme as Deadpool & Wolverine took in $53.7 million for three in a row. That figure is beyond my $49.6 million prediction as this has banked $493 million domestically so far. Worldwide it has already scored a billion bucks.

As mentioned, It Ends with Us began with a terrific premiere. Based on the bestseller by Colleen Hoover, it was runner-up with a cool $50 million (doubling the reported $25 million price tag). My estimate kept rising last week, but it still outpaced my $43.8 million projection.

Twisters was third with $15 million compared to my $13.9 million forecast as the four-week tally reached $222 million.

Borderlands, based on a well-known video game series, laid claim to biggest bomb of 2024. With a rumored budget of $120 million, the critically blasted sci-fi action tale was fourth with $8.6 million. I was on target with an $8.1 million call.

Despicable Me 4 rounded out the top five with $7.9 million (I said $8.6 million) as the animated sequel is up to $330 million after six weeks.

Finally, M. Night Shyamalan’s Trap fell 57% in weekend #2 to $6.6 million, in line with my $6.1 million take. The thriller has made a so-so $28 million in ten days.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Borderlands

Before you laugh at me for putting “Oscar Predictions” in front of Borderlands (out tomorrow), the sci-fi action spectacle based on a popular video game series has plenty of special effects. Therefore Eli Roth’s rendering of the source material could theoretically play in Visual Effects.

It won’t. The cast includes two-time Academy Award recipient Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jack Black, Édgar Ramirez, Ariana Greenblatt, Florian Munteanu, and recent Supporting Actress winner Jamie Lee Curtis. However, this is shaping up to be one of the biggest box office bombs of 2024. With a budget reportedly in the $120 million vicinity, I don’t even have it reaching $10 million during opening weekend.

Then there’s the reviews. Oof. The embargo was lifted hours before its release and now we know why. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 3% with a grand total of one positive(ish) write-up (here’s looking at you Grace Randolph)!

You can safely assume Borderlands won’t resonate with the Academy’s voters. On the other hand, it is the likely frontrunner for the Razzie Awards early next year. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

August 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Updates (08/08): Two updates for the newcomers on the eve of their premieres. Bumping It Ends with Us from $39.8 million to $43.8 million and downsizing Borderlands from $11.3 million to $8.1 million.

After the 8th best second weekend of all time at the domestic box office, Deadpool & Wolverine should rule the charts for a third frame. Yet the most serious competition for Ryan Reynolds thus far will come from his wife Blake Lively. That’s courtesy of the romantic drama It Ends with Us based on the bestseller from Colleen Hoover. Its breakout potential could cause it to over perform even beyond my forecast. We also have the video game based sci-fi action comedy Borderlands with Cate Blanchett and Kevin Hart. My detailed prediction posts on both newbies can be found here:

It Ends with Us Box Office Prediction
Borderlands Box Office Prediction

It Ends should begin with impressive numbers. The source material looks to bring in a sizable female audience who have been underserved in these summer months. My low to mid 30s call puts it easily in second and I could envision it going even higher.

I’m not expecting fireworks for Borderlands. Despite its video game series being popular, my low double digits take would place it in fourth behind the fourth go-round for Twisters.

Deadpool & Wolverine should lose about half its sophomore weekend crowd and that would give it high 40s for a third championship session.

Despicable Me 4 may only fall one slot to fifth. The percentage drop should be meager compared to M. Night Shyamalan’s Trap. His latest thriller underwhelmed (more on that below) and I foresee it plummeting around 60% to sixth place.

Here’s how I see that top 6 playing out:

1. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $49.6 million

2. It Ends with Us

Predicted Gross: $43.8 million

3. Twisters

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

4. Despicable Me 4

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

5. Borderlands

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

6. Trap

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

Box Office Results (August 9-11)

As mentioned, Deadpool & Wolverine managed the 8th largest weekend #2 with $96.8 million, easily clawing beyond my $84.6 million prediction. The MCU mashup has amassed $395 million in only ten days.

Twisters held tight in second with $22.8 million, blowing past my $18.1 million estimate. In three weeks, the sequel has hit $195 million with $200 million coming this week.

Mr. Shyamalan’s Trap performed in line with predecessors Old and Knock at the Cabin. In third place, the $15.4 million gross was under my $19.2 million projection. This opening is certainly on the lower end of the expected range and the C+ Cinemascore grade suggests the aforementioned large drop is coming.

Despicable Me 4 was fourth with $11.4 million compared to my $9.4 million call. The five-week total is $314 million.

Inside Out 2 rounded out the top five with $6.8 million for $626 million so far in eight weeks. I incorrectly had it outside the high five.

That’s because the family friendly and poorly reviewed Harold and the Purple Crayon couldn’t draw its crowd. With $6 million in sixth place, it fell under my $7.6 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Borderlands Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (08/08): On the eve of its premiere, I’m downsizing my estimate from $11.3 million to $8.1 million

For quite some, “based on a video game” was a kiss of death for cinematic adaptations. Some of the massive failures include 1993’s live-action Super Mario Bros., Double Dragon, Wing Commander, and Max Payne. That trend has reversed in recent years with hits like Uncharted, last year’s animated The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Five Nights at Freddy’s. So where Eli Roth’s Borderlands land? I suspect it might fail to break out.

The sci-fi action comedy is spawned from one of the most successful game franchises that began 15 years ago. An impressive cast includes Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jack Black (doing voiceover work), Edgar Ramirez, Ariana Greenblatt, Florian Munteanu, Gina Gershon, Haley Bennett, Bobby Lee, and Jamie Lee Curtis.

Some die-hard aficionados of the role-playing first-person shooter series will obviously turn up. Crossover appeal, despite the recognizable cast, could be a tall order. A debut of over $20 million should be considered a win, but I think it might stall out in the low double digits.

Borderlands opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million

For my It Ends with Us prediction, click here:

It Ends with Us Box Office Prediction