Rule Breakers is the latest inspirational drama from Angel Studios which casts Phoebe Waller-Bridge as a teacher guiding Afghan women. Bill Guttentag directs with Ali Fazal, Fahim Fazli, and Nikohl Boosheri among the costars.
Shot for a reported $8 million, Rule hopes to break into the consciousness of the faith-based audience that its studio caters to. That probably means an opening weekend in the lower to mid single digits. Angel’s last three efforts were Bonhoeffer (which started with $5.5 million), Homestead ($6 million), and Brave the Dark with just $2.3 million.
I think this should go higher than Dark while not reaching the debuts of the other two.
Rule Breakers opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million
Brave the Dark marks the latest effort from Angel Studios. They hit it big in 2023 with Sound of Freedom and have delivered midsize performers in recent months with Bonhoeffer and Homestead. This 1980s set drama comes from director Damian Harris. He’s the eldest son of legendary actor Richard Harris and (fun fact!) helmed the 1991 Goldie Hawn thriller Deceived and 1995 Ellen Barkin/Laurence Fishburne noir flick Bad Company.
This is a family affair with brothers Jared and Jamie Harris in the cast alongside Nicholas Hamilton. Dark actually first saw light in the fall of 2023 at some film festivals before Angel nabbed distribution rights. The aforementioned Bonhoeffer earned $5.5 million for its start in November while Homestead took in $6 million. That makes mid single digits the safest bet.
Brave the Dark opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million
Disney seeks to break its own all-time biggest Thanksgiving weekend record when Moana 2 sails into multiplexes this Wednesday. It’s the sole wide release over the holiday and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
It could be close, but I’m projecting the sequel to 2016’s animated tale will exceed Frozen II‘s current largest three-day and five-day ($85.9 million and $125 million) takes over the Turkey Day frame. The follow-up should easily top the Thanksgiving Friday to Sunday mark for a new picture which is currently held by… Moana at $56 million.
Leftovers will populate the rest of the top 5 with Wicked posting a second place showing after its third best premiere of 2024 (more on that below). With an A Cinemascore grade, the decline may only be in the mid 30s or so.
Gladiator II will drop a notch to third after a start on the lower end of its anticipated range. Ridley Scott’s long-in-the-works sequel could lose close to half its debut audience.
Red One and Venom: The Last Dance should fill out the rest of the high five and here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Moana 2
Predicted Gross: $92.1 million (Friday to Sunday); $130.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Wicked
Predicted Gross: $71.6 million
3. Gladiator II
Predicted Gross: $27.5 million
4. Red One
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
5. Venom: The Last Dance
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
Box Office Results (November 22-24)
Two things can be true as “Glicked” (Wicked and Gladiator II releasing on the same day) gave a needed jolt to the box office while each came in at the lower end of most projections. The critically acclaimed Wicked, based on the hugely popular play, made off with $112.5 million. As mentioned, it’s the third best haul in 2024 behind Deadpool & Wolverine and Inside Out 2. Yet it didn’t match my $134.6 million forecast. With magical word-of-mouth, this seems destined to perform well throughout the season.
Gladiator II was runner-up with $55 million and that didn’t measure up to my $69.8 million call. The so-so Cinemascore grade could mean its weekend to weekend declines could be heftier than I might’ve originally projected.
Red One slid to third at $13.2 million compared to my $14.9 million prediction. The holiday action comedy has taken in $52 million in two weeks which isn’t overly impressive considering the reported $250 million price tag.
Newcomer Bonhoeffer from Angel Studios was the only newcomer of the trio that opened above my expectations with $5 million. I said $4 million.
Venom: The Last Dance rounded out the top five with $3.8 million (I said $3.6 million) for $133 million in five weeks.
The Best Christmas Pageant Ever was sixth with $3.4 million, ahead of my $2.7 million projection for $25 million in three weeks. Behind it in seventh was Heretic with $2.2 million (I went with $2.5 million) for $24 million in three weeks.
On a weekend where the eyes of box office forecasters are trained on the debuts of Wicked and Gladiator II, Angel Studios will attempt to find an audience with Bonhoeffer. The historical drama is directed by Todd Komarnicki with Jonas Dassler playing the anti-Nazi dissident title character. Costars include August Diehl, David Jonsson, Flula Borg, Moritz Bleibtreu, and Clarke Peters.
Last summer, the film’s distributor found massive and unexpected success in the form of Sound of Freedom. Since then, their openings have been quieter. That includes After Death ($5.1 million), The Shift ($4.4 million), Cabrini ($7.2 million), and Sight ($2.8 million).
If this manages to reach $4 million, that should be enough to put it in fourth place. That’s exactly where I’m putting it.
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