Dutch filmmaker Halina Reijn follows up 2022’s Bodies Bodies Bodies (which had its ardent admirers and vocal detractors) with the sultry thriller Babygirl. The A24 release, slated for a domestic bow on Christmas, has been unveiled at the Venice Film Festival. Nicole Kidman stars as a CEO in a May-December romance. The supporting players include Harris Dickinson (soon to be seen in Steve McQueen’s awards hopeful Blitz), Antonio Banderas, and Sophie Wilde.
Kidman, a five-time nominee who won Actress for 2001’s The Hours, is receiving her share of solid ink. The RT score for the picture itself is at 85% though reviews indicate more reactions might be mixed. Babygirl‘s only real shot at Academy attention is with the veteran headliner. A24 went 0 for 2 in their campaigns last year for Greta Lee (Past Lives) and Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla) and competition appears significant already for the 97th broadcast.
I wouldn’t totally discount Kidman’s chances to make a run, but the odds are probably just fair. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The rich, entitled, and woke characters in Halina Reijn’s Bodies Bodies Bodies don’t need to be likable and they certainly aren’t. They do need interesting dialogue and a compelling or frightening storyline to work with. That happens too rarely in this monotonous satiric slasher with its takedown of the elite class.
Drinking, pills, and hard drugs are on the menu at the mansion of David (Pete Davidson) as a hurricane is about to supply its own blow. Sophie (Amandla Stenberg) is a childhood friend with a similar silver spoon upbringing. She brings her Eastern European partner Bee (Maria Bakalova, recently an Oscar nominee for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) to the rainy day soiree. Others RSVP’d are David’s actress girlfriend Emma (Chase Sui Wonders), podcaster Alice (Rachel Sennott) and her older beau Greg who’s also a vet (Lee Pace), and Jordan (Myha’la Herrold), who may share a romantic past with Sophie.
Previous substance abuse keeps Sophie from partaking in the fun but the others get their buzzkills when murders dampen the festivities. The first body pops up during the title game and more follow. As the count increases, we discover what the screenplay from Sarah DeLappe is really getting at. Even as lives are brutally lost, the partygoers manage to make the bloodshed somehow about them. You suspect that the suspects are mentally taking notes on how they’ll Instagram or Tik Tok the trauma. Let’s call it Keeping Up with the Carnage to bring in a reference to Mr. Davidson’s ex.
Unfortunately the screenplay strains mightily to make them anything more than blank caricatures. Not enough witty lines make the cut. Sennott’s Alice has the most potential. Maybe she should’ve been granted more material. Bakalova, so winning alongside Sacha Baron Cohen, is lost in a bore of a part. There’s a clever if familiar tale trying to break out in Bodies Bodies Bodies. My post mortem concludes that it mostly fails.
Blogger’s Update (08/17): Two days before its premiere, I’m revising Beast down from $14.3M to $11.3M. That puts it in second place instead of first with Dragon Ball rising to first.
Survival thriller Beast with Idris Elba and the animated Japanese fantasy sequel Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero will compete for the #1 spot this weekend. It could be a close competition and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
I’m projecting that both will manage a low teens opening and I’m giving Beast an ever so slight edge. Either could over perform, but both could also top out in low double digits. As long as neither falls significantly short of expectations, they should place 1-2.
Bullet Train, after two weeks in first, should fall to 3rd or 4th depending on how well Top Gun: Maverick holds. It’s a safe bet that the latter will hold quite solidly so it could be a stiff competition for third with DC League of Super-Pets rounding out the top five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
2. Beast
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
3. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $7 million
4. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
5. DC League of Super-Pets
Predicted Gross: $5 million
Box Office Results (August 12-14)
Brad Pitt and the Bullet Train was #1 again with $13.4 million, just shy of my $14.1 million take. The two-week total is $55 million as it is tracking to come in under $100 million domestically when all is said and done.
In a photo finish for second, Top Gun: Maverick achieved another remarkable feat. Rising from sixth to the runner-up position, Tom Cruise’s biggest hit ever (and then some) earned $7 million in its 12th outing. I projected a tad lower at $6.2 million. Sitting at $673 million and #7 all-time stateside, it will eventually get to the #5 slot and overtake Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War in the coming days.
DC League of Super-Pets was third and it also made $7 million, in line with my $7.2 million prediction. The animated tale has made $58 million in its three weeks of release.
It was a razor thin margin for 4th and 5th with Thor: Love and Thunder barely surpassing Nope. The former made $5.3 million (I was right there at $5.4 million) as the MCU sequel has rung up $325 million.
Nope was fifth and also did $5.3 million, outpacing my $4.2 million guesstimate. Jordan Peele’s effort has made $107 million.
Minions: The Rise of Gru was sixth with $5 million. I went with $5.2 million and it’s amassed $343 million.
#7 was Where the Crawdads Sing with $4 million (I said $4.1 million) with a $72 million overall haul.
Bodies Bodies Bodies couldn’t really capitalize on its impressive NY/LA limited rollout last weekend. Expanding wide, it took in $3.2 million for eighth place. I was a bit more optimistic at $4.4 million. While its per screen average was 2nd in the top 10 behind only Train, look for it to fade quickly.
Elvis was ninth with $2.5 million (I said $2.6 million) as the biopic has shook up $141 million.
The climbing thriller Fall debuted in 10th with $2.5 million. That’s nothing to brag about, but it did come in with better earnings than most prognoses. This includes my own at $1.2 million.
Easter Sunday fell outside of the top ten in 11th with $2.4 million in its sophomore frame (I was on target at $2.5 million). The meager total is $9 million.
Last and least, Diane Keaton’s comedy Mack & Rita was a massive flop in 13th position with $1 million. I gave it too much leeway at $2.3 million. As if that start wasn’t bad enough, it earned a dreadful D+ Cinemascore grade.
There’s a trio of pics debuting or expanding this weekend, but they could all find themselves outside of the top five. A24’s slasher comedy Bodies Bodies Bodies hopes to build on its impressive NY/LA limited release while the Diane Keaton comedy Mack & Rita and survival thriller Fall premiere. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
Both Bodies and Fall are expected to hit around 1200 screens. That’s low and limits their range. Let’s start with Fall as its lack of promotion could find it failing to even make $1 million. I’m projecting $1.2 million and that obviously leaves it well outside the high five (and ten for that matter).
Bodies is a bit tougher to figure out. In six venues in our nation’s two largest cities, it took in a robust per screen average of nearly $40k. Yet as I mentioned in my individual post, I’m skeptical that this plays well in the middle of the country. My $4.4 million estimate also leaves it on the outside looking in.
Mack & Rita also seems to be suffering from lack of awareness. I’m only going with $2.3 million as this should come and go in multiplexes quickly.
With the newcomers out of the way, that leaves holdovers to talk about. Sony’s Bullet Train with Brad Pitt opened right on track with reasonable expectations (more on that below) and it should have no trouble remaining in the top spot again. With minimal competition, it could slide in the mid 40s in the best case scenario. That said, if you look at action titles of early August past, a drop in the low 50s to mid 50s seems just as likely. DC League of Super-Pets should stay in second… with a caveat.
If Top Gun: Maverick continues percentage drops in the teens (and there’s no reason to think it won’t), it should re-enter the top 5. Nope could drop out altogether with Thor: Love and Thunder and Minions: The Rise of Gru battling it out for the 4 spot alongside Bodies Bodies Bodies. There’s even a chance Maverick could go from #6 to #2.
Here’s how I see the charts playing out and I’ll expand it to a top ten this time around:
1. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $14.1 million
2. DC League of Super-Pets
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
3. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
4. Thor: Love and Thunder
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
5. Minions: The Rise of Gru
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
6. Bodies Bodies Bodies
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
7. Nope
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
8. Where the Crawdads Sing
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
9. Elvis
Predicted Gross: $2.6 million
10. Easter Sunday
Predicted Gross: $2.5 million
11. Mack & Rita
Predicted Gross: $2.3 million
Box Office Results (August 5-7)
Bullet Train came in right where I thought it would with $30 million (my call was $29.7 million). While it certainly didn’t exceed expectations, it’s a perfectly decent opening and its overseas grosses are solid. The B+ Cinemascore indicates a somewhat fair-weather reaction so it’s worth monitoring how it holds up. As mentioned, the lack of competition should help.
DC League of Super-Pets had a stiffer sophomore fall than I anticipated with $11 million compared to my $13.6 million take. The two-week total is a muted $44 million.
Nope saw a drop of over 50% once again with $8.5 million, in range with my $8.1 million prediction. The three-week tally is approaching nine digits at $97 million.
Thor: Love and Thunder was fourth at $7.7 million (I said $8.3 million) as the MCU sequel became the highest pic in the franchise by eclipsing 2017’s Ragnarok. Total is $316 million.
Minions: The Rise of Gru rounded out the top five with $7.1 million (I went with $6.9 million) for a $334 million haul.
Finally, the Jo Koy comedy Easter Sunday struggled in its start in 8th place with $5.4 million, just under my $5.6 million estimate.
The slasher satire Bodies Bodies Bodies opened in six theaters exclusive to New York and L.A. yesterday and it appears to be doing brisk business. From director Halina Reijn, the A24 pic (sporting a 92% on Rotten Tomatoes) stars Amandla Stenberg, Maria Bakalova, Myha’la Herrold, Chase Sui Wonders, Rachel Sennott, Lee Pace, and Pete Davidson (who’s in the news this weekend due to his reported breakup with Kim Kardashian).
Early reports have Bodies laying down an approximate $240-250k gross for its coastal limited release. That equates to roughly a $40k per theater average and that’s impressive.
Whether that translates to a sizable rollout next weekend when it grows to around 1200 screens is a murkier question. Performing well in America’s two largest cities is one thing while nabbing eyeballs in the heartland and elsewhere is another.
My hunch is that this won’t quite hit $5 million in the expansion on August 12th, but it could have the capacity to surprise.
Bodies Bodies Bodies (wide) opening weekend prediction: $4.4 million
A24’s Bodies Bodies Bodies premiered at South by Southwest in March and the theatrical release comes in limited fashion tomorrow. Marking the English directorial debut of Danish filmmaker Halina Reijn, the slasher comedy is drawing some kudos from critics. The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at an impressive 94%.
Amandla Stenberg, Maria Bakalova (recent Supporting Actress nominee for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm). Myha’la Herrold, Chase Sui Wonders, Rachel Sennott, Lee Pace, and Pete Davidson lead the cast in this tale of a hurricane themed party goes awry. Numerous reviews have praised the screenplay’s twist on a well-worn genre.
Even with the solid notices, I would guess that A24 will be far more focused on campaigning for Everything Everywhere All at Once (which could win Original Screenplay) and not this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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