A week from today, Bleecker Street releases What They Had in limited fashion. The film marks the directorial debut of Elizabeth Chomko (who also wrote the script) and centers on a family dealing with a mother diagnosed with Alzheimer’s. It premiered at Sundance back in January and features a cast including Hilary Swank (two-time winner for Boys Don’t Cry and Million Dollar Baby), Michael Shannon, Blythe Danner, Robert Forster, Taissa Farmiga, and Josh Lucas.
Early reviews have been positive and it stands at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes. That said, critical reaction likely isn’t strong enough to make this a player in Best Picture. What They Had could struggle generally to get noticed at all. Its best chances aren’t with Swank or Shannon, but with Danner and Forster. For them to get noticed, the picture will need to at least break through with audiences to a certain degree. That could be a tall order in the midst of more high-profile contenders.
Bottom line: while this is generating solid reviews, Had is a long shot for Academy attention. My Oscar watch posts will continue…
My weekly Oscar predictions in the major categories, as expected, has seen some significant shifting. This is mostly due to the Toronto Film Festival and the screenings of several major contenders.
Here are some quick notes on the movement that’s taken place in the past seven days:
The addiction drama Beautiful Boy has taken a hit in the standings, due to a mixed Toronto reaction. It falls from #5 all the way to #21 in the Best Picture derby. Additionally, I have taken it out the 5 predicted nominees in Best Actor (Steve Carell) and Adapted Screenplay. However, Timothee Chalamet is still looking good for Supporting Actor.
If Beale Street Could Talk had its much awaited debut up north. I basically had it as a place holder pick at #1 in both Picture and Director, but it’s fallen in both races to #5 and #4, respectively. This vaults A Star Is Born to the #1 slot in BP with Alfonso Cuaron’s direction of Roma currently topping Best Director.
The elimination of the Best Popular Film category could be a good thing for Black Panther. For the first time, I have it included in my nine predicted BP nominees.
Peter Farrelly’s Green Book seemed to be a crowd favorite in Toronto. While I have it just outside my BP rankings, it’s now included in Best Original Screenplay and Mahershala Ali is predicted for Supporting Actor. It’s not entirely certain yet whether he will be placed in that category or go co-lead with Viggo Mortensen.
Speaking of category placement, we’re still not sure where Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz will end up for The Favourite. Right now, I’m assuming Colman in Actress and both Stone and Weisz for Supporting Actress. I’ve now got Stone getting a nod for the first time.
The Dick Cheney biopic starring Christian Bale has apparently switched its working title name Backseat to Vice.
My current Best Actor predictions now include Ryan Gosling (First Man) and Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun) with the aforementioned Carell and Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner) out.
In Best Actress, solid Toronto chatter for the work of Viola Davis (Widows) puts her in the mix with Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) taken out.
Widows also shined a light on Daniel Kaluuya as he’s said to have a terrific part in it. He is now included in Supporting Actor along with Green Book‘s Ali. Sam Rockwell (Vice) and Russell Crowe (Boy Erased) have been moved out of the predicted nominees.
In Supporting Actress, Emma Stone has replaced Vera Farmiga (The Front Runner).
Yorgos Lanthimos has been included in my 5 director nominees and that means Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) is on the outside looking in currently.
Here’s the whole breakdown for this week!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
2. Roma (PR: 3)
3. First Man (PR: 4)
4. The Favourite (PR: 6)
5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR 1)
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)
7. Boy Erased (PR: 8)
8. Vice (PR: 9 – previously known as Backseat)
9. Black Panther (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
10. Green Book (PR: 18)
11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 15)
12. Widows (PR: 14)
13. The Front Runner (PR: 10)
14. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 25)
15. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 24)
16. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 13)
17. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 21)
18. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 17)
19. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 16)
20. Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)
22. Cold War (PR: 20)
23. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 23)
24. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 19)
25. Peterloo (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
July 22
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 2)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
3. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 4)
4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
7. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
8. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 9)
9. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)
10. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 13)
11. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 15)
12. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jacques Audiard, The Sisters Brothers (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jason Reitman, The Front Runner (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy
Mike Leigh, Peterloo
Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)
4. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 4)
5. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
7. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)
8. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 10)
9. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 5)
10. John C. Reilly, The Sisters Brothers (PR: 14)
11. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)
12. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 12)
13. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 15)
14. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (PR: 13)
15. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 11)
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 4)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 5)
5. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 12)
7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)
8. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 9)
9. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 3)
10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
12. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)
13. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 11)
14. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 13)
15. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Joanna Kulig, Cold War
Best Supporting Actor
1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 1)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 4)
3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 3)
7. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 5)
8. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)
9. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
10. Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 6)
11. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)
12. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Jason Clarke, First Man (PR: 12)
15. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick
J.K. Simmons, The Front Runner
Best Supporting Actress
1. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 1)
2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 7)
4. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 3)
5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 14)
7. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 11)
8. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Maura Tierney, Beautiful Boy (PR: 6)
10. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
11. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner (PR: 4)
13. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex (PR: Not Ranked)
What a difference a week makes! Last Thursday, I gave you my first initial predictions in the major categories for the Oscars. Since then – we’ve seen a slew of pictures screened at the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals.
Films like A Star Is Born, Roma, First Man, and The Favourite solidified their status as contenders. Others like Boy Erased and The Front Runner availed themselves as possibilities, but not slam dunks. Others like Destroyer and The Old Man & The Gun likely took themselves out of the running in Best Picture, but shined a light on their actors that could receive nods.
And here’s the thing… by the time I do my third round of predictions next Thursday, we will have lots more pictures screened at the Toronto Film Festival, which begins today. That includes such high-profile titles as If Beale Street Could Talk, Beautiful Boy, Widows, and more.
Here’s how I have the key races ranked by possibility of nomination at this point in time!
Best Picture
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Roma (PR: 4)
4. First Man (PR: 5)
5. Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)
6. The Favourite (PR: 13)
7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
8. Boy Erased (PR: 7)
9. Backseat (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Front Runner (PR: 14)
11. Black Panther (PR: 12)
12. Peterloo (PR: 9)
13. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)
14. Widows (PR: 11)
15. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 16)
16. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 17)
17. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 22)
18. Green Book (PR: 21)
19. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 24)
20. Cold War (PR: Not Ranked)
21. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 23)
22. July 22 (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 19)
24. The Sisters Brothers (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
The Old Man & The Gun
Destroyer
Ben Is Back
Best Director
1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 2)
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 4)
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 11)
7. Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy (PR: 6)
8. Adam McKay, Backseat (PR: 7)
9. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
10. Jason Reitman, The Front Runner (PR: 14)
11. Mike Leigh, Peterloo (PR: 9)
12. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 13)
14. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)
15. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 3)
3. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 2)
4. Christian Bale, Backseat (PR: 6)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)
7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 5)
8. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 7)
9. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)
10. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 13)
11. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 10)
12. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 12)
13. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (PR: 14)
14. John C. Reilly, The Sisters Brothers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Rory Kinnear, Peterloo
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 6)
4. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 9)
5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)
7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)
8. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 3)
9. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
11. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)
12. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 15)
13. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)
14. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: 13)
15. Joanna Kulig, Cold War
Dropped Out:
Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Best Supporting Actor
1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
3. Sam Rockwell, Backseat (PR: 3)
4. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
5. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)
7. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 9)
10. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 13)
11. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 5)
12. Jason Clarke, First Man (PR: 11)
13. David Tennant, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)
14. Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick (PR: Not Ranked)
15. J.K. Simmons, The Front Runner (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sebastian Stan, Destroyer
Topher Grace, BlacKkKlansman
Best Supporting Actress
1. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 3)
2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Backseat (PR: 5)
4. Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner (PR: 10)
5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maura Tierney, Beautiful Boy (PR: 6)
7. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 12)
10. Amy Ryan, Beautiful Boy (PR: 7)
11. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 11)
12. Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
13. Blythe Danner, What They Had (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)
15. Rachel McAdams, Disobedience (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Tatiana Maslany, Destroyer
Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Beautiful Boy (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)
4. Boy Erased (PR: 3)
5. First Man (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
7. The Front Runner (PR: 8)
8. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
9. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)
10. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
11. Disobedience (PR: 13)
12. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 15)
13. Widows (PR: 12)
14. Wildlife (PR: 14)
15. The Miseducation of Cameron Post (PR: Not Ranked)
Here we are folks! After numerous posts prognosticating on what and whom will be nominated for the Academy Awards honoring 2015’s best, we will all collectively find out tomorrow morning. This Oscar season has been filled with much intrigue and a great deal of uncertainty.
Many questions abound:
Will the performances of Rooney Mara (Carol) and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) be recognized in lead Actress or Supporting Actress? That query alone makes predicting both of those races tricky this year. I will go with both being recognized in Supporting, but if Oscar voters go lead with one or both, it changes the whole dynamic. There’s also the possibility that Vikander could be honored in Supporting for Ex Machina and not Danish, which adds to the confusion.
Will the Academy nominate their first Star Wars pic (The Force Awakens) since the original 38 years ago? It’s already become the highest grossing film of all time and could certainly lead to even more eyeballs watching the telecast. That said, I have it narrowly missing the cut.
Will Leonardo DiCaprio finally win the gold statue for his work in The Revenant? Precursor awards including the Golden Globes point to yes. A nomination seems assured.
Is Spotlight truly the front runner or not? Many other possibilities are out there for an “upset” win. It is, at best, a soft front runner.
I’ll finally note that my predictions reflect a belief that Straight Outta Compton will be shut out. This goes against what several other predictors are saying and many have it being recognized in Best Picture. Another high profile offering that I have coming up empty: Black Mass.
As I’ve done for the last several weeks, I’m listing my predicted nominees and other possibilities in each category by likelihood of being nominated. Just because I have something listed as #1 doesn’t mean I’m predicting it to win (I’ll have my first blog post up predicting the winners this weekend). In parentheses after each entry is how far each predicted nominee/possibility has fallen from my previous predictions last week. On Thursday evening, I’ll have a post up letting you know how well (or not so much) I did.
Let’s get to it, shall we? My FINAL predictions:
Best Picture
As I see it, there are 21 films vying for anywhere from 5-10 spots. The magic number is usually 9 (last year it was 8). I’m going with 9 this year, though I believe 10 is more probable than 8. And strangely enough, my predicted nine has stayed the same over the course of the last month or so. Straight Outta Compton, Sicario, and even The Force Awakens have made some waves of late, but I still have them narrowly missing.
Spotlight (No Change)
The Big Short (No Change)
The Revenant (+3)
Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)
The Martian (No Change)
Carol (+1)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Room (-4)
Brooklyn (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
10. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
12. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
13. Sicario (+1)
14. Inside Out (-1)
15. Steve Jobs (+1)
16. Ex Machina (+2)
17. Trumbo (No Change)
18. Beasts of No Nation (-3)
19. Son of Saul (+1)
20. The Danish Girl (-1)
21. Creed (No Change)
Best Director
Tuesday’s Directors Guild of America usually provides a reasonably reliable snap shot of at least three or four of the nominees that will end up being recognized here. Their picks were Tom McCarthy, Ridley Scott, George Miller, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, and Adam McKay. Of those, McKay seems the most vulnerable (with Miller and Scott behind). I’ll keep my prediction for Todd Haynes in and there’s certainly a chance there’s a shocker nominee as we sometimes see in this category.
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (+1)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (+1)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (+1)
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (-3)
Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)
7. Adam McKay, The Big Short (-1)
8. Denis Villenueve, Sicario (+5)
9. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)
10. F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton (+1)
11. John Crowley, Brooklyn (-2)
12. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-2)
13. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
14. Jay Roach, Trumbo (Previously Unranked)
15. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation (-1)
16. Alex Garland, Ex Machina (Previously Unranked)
17. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (-2)
18. Ryan Coogler, Creed (Previously Unranked)
19. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs (Previously Unranked)
20. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl (Previously Unranked)
Best Actor
This race is increasingly looking like ‘The Leo Show” with Mr. DiCaprio likely to nab (finally) his first Oscar. Only Leo seems to be a totally safe bet (though it would be a surprise to me if Redmayne and Fassbender don’t get in and probably Cranston too). I would say numbers 5-8 are practically interchangeable while anything 9 or below would be a fairly big surprise.
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (No Change)
Matt Damon, The Martian (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Carell, The Big Short (-1)
7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)
8. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (No Change)
9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (No Change)
10. Michael Caine, Youth (No Change)
11. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (+1)
12. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (-1)
Best Actress
As previously discussed, all the rules go out the window if either Rooney Mara or Alicia Vikander are recognized here instead of in Supporting Actress. That said, I feel pretty confident about Larson, Ronan, and Blanchett. The rest? Not so much.
Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (+1)
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
7. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (+1)
8. Emily Blunt, Sicario (+3)
9. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams (+1)
10. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back (-1)
11. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van (Previously Unranked)
Best Supporting Actor
Bottom line: I feel like Rylance and Stallone are the only safe bets here. This category has been wide open for quite some time and all 12 performers listed here could get in. Very curious to see how this works out come tomorrow.
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Sylvester Stallone, Creed (+1)
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (-1)
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (+1)
Christian Bale, The Big Short (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (No Change)
7. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (No Change)
8. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (No Change)
9. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (No Change)
10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)
11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-1)
12. Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton (Previously Unranked)
Best Supporting Actress
Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander seem like safe bets – as long as they’re nominated here and not in Actress. Kate Winslet (fresh off a Globe win) and Jennifer Jason Leigh should play here, too. The fifth slot is truly up for grabs, I feel.
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Rooney Mara, Carol (No Change)
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (+1)
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (-1)
Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jane Fonda, Youth (-1)
7. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (No Change)
8. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+1)
9. Joan Allen, Room (-1)
10. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (No Change)
11. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)
12. Marion Cotillard, MacBeth (Previously Unranked)
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight (No Change)
Inside Out (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
The Hateful Eight (-1)
Sicario (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ex Machina (-1)
7. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)
8. Love and Mercy (No Change)
9. Son of Saul (+2)
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short (No Change)
Carol (No Change)
Room (No Change)
Steve Jobs (+1)
Brooklyn (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (No Change)
7. The Revenant (+1)
8. Beasts of No Nation (+1)
9. Trumbo (-2)
10. Mad Max: Fury Road (Previously Unranked)
11. Anomalisa (No Change)
Best Animated Feature
Inside Out (No Change)
Anomalisa (No Change)
Shaun the Sheep Movie (No Change)
Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet (No Change)
The Peanuts Movie (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Good Dinosaur (-1)
7. When Marnie Was There (No Change)
8. Minions (Previously Unranked)
Best Documentary Feature (First Time Predictions)
Amy
The Look of Silence
Winter on Fire
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
He Named Me Malala
Other Possibilities:
6. Listen to Me Marlon
7. Best of Enemies
8. The Hunting Ground
9. Where to Invade Next
10. Heart of the Dog
Best Foreign Language Film (First Time Predictions)
Son of Saul
Mustang
A War
The Brand New Testament
Embrace of the Serpent
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fencer
7. Labyrinth of Lies
8. Theeb
9. Viva
Best Production Design
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Carol (-2)
The Revenant (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brooklyn (-1)
7. The Martian (Previously Unranked)
8. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+3)
9. The Hateful Eight (-3)
10. Cinderella (-3)
Best Cinematography
The Revenant (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Sicario (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carol (+1)
7. Son of Saul (+2)
8. The Martian (-2)
9. The Assassin (-1)
10. Spotlight (Previously Unranked)
Best Costume Design
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Carol (No Change)
Cinderella (+1)
Brooklyn (-1)
Far from the Madding Crowd (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mad Max: Fury Road (+6)
7. The Hateful Eight (-1)
8. Suffragette (-1)
9. The Revenant (No Change)
10. Mr. Holmes (Previously Unranked)
Best Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Big Short (No Change)
Spotlight (+2)
The Revenant (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (-3)
7. Sicario (+3)
8. Steve Jobs (-2)
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+3)
10. The Hateful Eight (-1)
11. Room (-3)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared (+1)
Other Possibilities:
4. Black Mass (-1)
5. Mr. Holmes (No Change)
6. Concussion (No Change)
7. Legend (No Change)
Best Sound Mixing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (+3)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
Sicario (No Change)
The Martian (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
7. Bridge of Spies (Previously Unranked)
8. Jurassic World (-1)
Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
The Martian (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sicario (-1)
7. Jurassic World (+1)
8. Bridge of Spies (Previously Unranked)
Best Visual Effects
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
Jurassic World (No Change)
The Martian (No Change)
The Revenant (Previously Unranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ex Machina (-1)
7. The Walk (No Change)
8. Ant-Man (Previously Unranked)
9. Avengers: Age of Ultron (-1)
10. In the Heart of the Sea (-4)
Best Score
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Carol (+1)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+2)
Bridge of Spies (-2)
The Danish Girl (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spotlight (No Change)
7. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Best Original Song
“See You Again” from Furious 7 (+2)
“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground (-1)
“Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (+4)
“Simple Song #3” from Youth (No Change)
“So Long” from Concussion (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
7. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
These FINAL predictions reflect a belief that the following pictures will receive this number of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Revenant
9 Nominations
Mad Max: Fury Road
8 Nominations
Carol
7 Nominations
Bridge of Spies
6 Nominations
The Martian
5 Nominations
The Danish Girl, The Hateful Eight
4 Nominations
The Big Short, Brooklyn, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3 Nominations
Room, Sicario, Steve Jobs
2 Nominations
Inside Out, Trumbo
1 Nomination
Beasts of No Nation, Cinderella, Concussion, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Hunting Ground, Joy, Jurassic World, Love and Mercy, The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared, Spectre, Youth
And there you have it, folks! My final Oscar predictions! I’ll have an update posted tomorrow. Until then…
We begin 2016 with my weekly Oscar predictions leading up to nominations being announced on January 14th. This will mean I’ll have two more posts prognosticating on what and who will be nominated (one on Friday the 8th and one likely the day before the announcements).
A couple of quick notes on various races:
There is considerable speculation as to whether Rooney Mara will be nominated in the category of Best Actress or Supporting Actress for her work in Carol. So far, I’ve speculated a nomination for her in the latter. Today, I am changing it to the former.
Same goes for Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl, but I’m keeping her in Supporting Actress for now. There is also speculation that her nod could come for Ex Machina and not Danish Girl.
The historic box office performance of Star Wars: The Force Awakens is increasing its shot at a Best Picture nomination. I’ve still got it on the outside looking in, but don’t be shocked if that changes in the coming days.
And with that, here’s my weekly predictions that list all possibilities for each race and how they’ve fluctuated since Christmas Day:
Best Picture
Spotlight (No Change)
Room (No Change)
The Big Short (+2)
Mad Max: Fury Road (+2)
Carol (-2)
The Martian (+1)
The Revenant (-3)
Brooklyn (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+8)
11. Inside Out (-2)
12. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
13. Straight Outta Compton (-2)
14. Beasts of No Nation (-1)
15. Son of Saul (+2)
16. Steve Jobs (No Change)
17. Creed (-2)
18. Sicario (+1)
19. Trumbo (-5)
20. The Danish Girl (No Change)
21. Anomalisa (Previously Unranked)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Director
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (No Change)
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (+1)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (-1)
Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam McKay, The Big Short (+1)
7. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)
8. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
9. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (No Change)
10. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (+3)
11. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+4)
12. John Crowley, Brooklyn (-2)
13. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation (-2)
14. Ryan Coogler, Creed (-2)
DROPPED OUT: F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (No Change)
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Matt Damon, The Martian (+1)
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (No Change)
7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)
8. Steve Carell, The Big Short (No Change)
9. Michael Caine, Youth (+1)
10. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (-1)
11. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (No Change)
12. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
13. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Actress
Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
Rooney Mara, Carol (Previously Unranked In This Category)
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (-1)
7. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)
8. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You In My Dreams (-1)
9. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (No Change)
DROPPED OUT: Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Mara. Out: Rampling.
Best Supporting Actor
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Sylvester Stallone, Creed (No Change)
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (No Change)
Christian Bale, The Big Short (No Change)
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (-1)
7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (+1)
8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (+1)
9. Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (-2)
10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)
11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-1)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Shannon. Out: Keaton.
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (+3)
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (+1)
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (-2)
Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+1)
Joan Allen, Room (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+1)
7. Jane Fonda, Youth (-1)
8. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (Previously Unranked)
9. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (-1)
10. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Allen. Out: Rooney Mara (moved to Best Actress)
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight (No Change)
Inside Out (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Ex Machina (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)
7. Love and Mercy (+2)
8. 99 Homes (-1)
9. Son of Saul (-1)
10. Sicario (No Change)
11. Joy (Previously Unranked)
DROPPED OUT: Youth
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short (+1)
Room (+1)
Carol (-2)
Steve Jobs (No Change)
Brooklyn (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (No Change)
7. The Revenant (+2)
8. Beasts of No Nation (-1)
9. Anomalisa (+1)
10. Trumbo (-2)
11. Creed (+2)
12. The Danish Girl (No Change)
13. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Animated Feature
Inside Out (No Change)
Anomalisa (No Change)
Shaun the Sheep Movie (+1)
The Peanuts Movie (+1)
Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Good Dinosaur (No Change)
7. When Marnie Was There (No Change)
8. Minions (Previously Unranked)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Cinematography
The Revenant (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (+1)
Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)
Sicario (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (No Change)
7. Son of Saul (-2)
8. Carol (-1)
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Previously Unranked)
DROPPED OUT: In the Heart of the Sea
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Bridge of Spies. Out: Son of Saul.
Best Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
The Revenant (+2)
Spotlight (-2)
The Martian (+2)
Steve Jobs (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sicario (Previously Unranked)
7. The Big Short (-4)
8. Bridge of Spies (-1)
9. The Hateful Eight (-1)
10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
11. Carol (Previously Unranked)
12. Room (-3)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Martian. Out: The Big Short.
Best Production Design
Carol (No Change)
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
The Hateful Eight (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cinderella (No Change)
7. Brooklyn (-3)
8. The Revenant (+1)
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
10. Far from the Madding Crowd (Previously Unranked)
11. MacBeth (-1)
DROPPED OUT: The Martian
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Hateful Eight. Out: Brooklyn.
Best Costume Design
Carol (+1)
The Danish Girl (-1)
Cinderella (No Change)
Brooklyn (No Change)
Far from the Madding Crowd (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (+1)
7. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
8. MacBeth (+1)
9. The Revenant (+1)
10. Suffragette (-4)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Previously Unranked)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Far from the Madding Crowd. Out: Mad Max: Fury Road.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (+4)
Black Mass (+1)
Other Possibilities:
4. Concussion (Previously Unranked)
5. Mr. Holmes (+2)
6. The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared (Previously Unranked)
7. Legend (Previously Unranked)
DROPPED OUT: The Danish Girl, Carol, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (these top seven finalists indicated above have now been announced)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Revenant, Black Mass. OUT: The Danish Girl, Carol
Best Sound Mixing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
The Martian (No Change)
Sicario (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (-1)
7. In the Heart of the Sea (No Change)
8. Jurassic World (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Sicario. Out: The Hateful Eight.
Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+1)
The Martian (-1)
In the Heart of the Sea (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sicario (No Change)
7. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
8. Jurassic World (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes.
Best Visual Effects
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
The Martian (No Change)
Jurassic World (No Change)
Ex Machina (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. In the Heart of the Sea (-1)
7. The Walk (-1)
8. Everest (Previously Unranked)
9. The Revenant (-2)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Ex Machina. Out: In the Heart of the Sea.
Best Original Score
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Carol (+1)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spotlight (No Change)
7. Steve Jobs (+1)
8. Inside Out (+1)
9. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
10. The Revenant (Previously Unranked)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Original Song
“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground (No Change)
“See You Again” from Furious 7 (+1)
“So Long” from Concussion (-1)
“Simple Song #3” from Youth (+1)
“Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (+1)
7. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
DROPPED OUT: “I’ll See You In My Dreams” from I’ll See You in My Dreams
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
And there you have it – my latest Oscar predictions and first post of 2016!
We arrive at my weekly Oscar predictions and a new wrinkle has been added. I’m predicting every category with the exception of Foreign and Documentary (those will eventually be added).
As with last week, I’ll ranking according to my feelings on likelihood of the films and performers being nominated and let you know what’s changed since last week. The pluses and minuses and no changes indicated their ranking from last week to this week.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Spotlight (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
Room (No Change)
Brooklyn (+3)
Carol (-1)
The Martian (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
The Big Short (+2)
Other Possibilities:
10. Inside Out (No Change)
11. The Hateful Eight (-2)
12. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+11)
13. Trumbo (+6)
14. Son of Saul (+3)
15. The Danish Girl (+1)
16. Sicario (+5)
17. Beasts of No Nation (-3)
18. Steve Jobs (-5)
19. Straight Outta Compton (-4)
20. Creed (-8)
21. Joy (-2)
22. Love and Mercy (-1)
23. Anomalisa (-6)
What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: The Big Short. OUT: The Hateful Eight.
Best Director
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (No Change)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (No Change)
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (No Change)
Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)
7. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)
8. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+9)
9. John Crowley, Brooklyn (No Change)
10. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-2)
11. Adam McKay, The Big Short (+1)
12. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (+1)
13. Jay Roach, Trumbo (Previously Not Ranked)
14. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl (+2)
15. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs (-1)
16. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation (-5)
17. Ryan Coogler, Creed (-7)
DROPPED OUT: David O. Russell, Joy
What’s Changed Since Last Week: NO CHANGES
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (+1)
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (-1)
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (+1)
Johnny Depp, Black Mass (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Matt Damon, The Martian (No Change)
7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)
8. Michael Caine, Youth (+3)
9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (No Change)
10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
11. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (+2)
12. Steve Carell, The Big Short (No Change)
13. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (-5)
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Actress
Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (No Change)
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
7. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (+2)
8. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams (-2)
9. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back (-1)
10. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van (No Change)
11. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette (+1)
12. Lily Tomlin, Grandma (-1)
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Supporting Actor
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Michael Keaton, Spotlight (+1)
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (+1)
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (+1)
Sylvester Stallone, Creed (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (+4)
7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (-1)
8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (No Change)
9. Christian Bale, The Big Short (-2)
10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)
11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-2)
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Supporting Actress
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Rooney Mara, Carol (No Change)
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (No Change)
Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+4)
7. Jane Fonda, Youth (-2)
8. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (-2)
9. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)
10. Joan Allen, Room (-2)
DROPPED OUT: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Helen Mirren, OUT: Jane Fonda.
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight (No Change)
Inside Out (+1)
The Hateful Eight (-1)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Love and Mercy (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Son of Saul (-1)
7. Mad Max: Fury Road (Previously Not Ranked)
8. 99 Homes (No Change)
9. Sicario (+1)
10. Ex Machina (+1)
11. Straight Outta Compton (-4)
12. Youth (Previously Not Ranked)
13. Joy (-4)
14. Trainwreck (-2)
What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Love and Mercy. OUT: Son of Saul.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Room (+2)
Brooklyn (+2)
Carol (-2)
The Big Short (+1)
Steve Jobs (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (+1)
7. Trumbo (+3)
8. The Revenant (-2)
9. Beasts of No Nation (No Change)
10. Anomalisa (-2)
11. The Danish Girl (+1)
DROPPED OUT: Creed
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Animated Feature (First Time Predictions)
Inside Out
Anomalisa
Kahlil Gobran’s The Prophet
Shaun the Sheep Movie
The Good Dinosaur
Other Possibilities:
6. The Peanuts Movie
7. When Marnie Was There
8. Home
Best Cinematography (First Time Predictions)
The Hateful Eight
The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Sicario
Other Possibilities:
6. Carol
7. Bridge of Spies
8. The Danish Girl
Best Production Design (First Time Predictions)
Carol
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
Cinderella
Bridge of Spies
Other Possibilities:
6. The Revenant
7. Brooklyn
8. The Martian
9. The Hateful Eight
10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
11. MacBeth
Best Editing (First Time Predictions)
Spotlight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The Big Short
Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight
7. The Martian
8. Bridge of Spies
9. Room
Best Costume Design (First Time Predictions)
Carol
Cinderella
Brooklyn
The Danish Girl
Far from the Madding Crowd
Other Possibilities:
6. Mad Max: Fury Road
7. Suffragette
8. Trumbo
9. The Hateful Eight
10. MacBeth
Best Makeup and Hairstyling (First Time Predictions)
The Danish Girl
Carol
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Other Possibilities:
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Black Mass
6. Pan
7. The Hateful Eight
8. The Revenant
Best Visual Effects (First Time Predictions)
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Jurassic World
The Walk
Other Possibilities:
6. The Revenant
7. In the Heart of the Sea
8. Ex Machina
Best Sound Mixing (First Time Predictions)
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Revenant
Sicario
Other Possibilities:
6. Jurassic World
7. The Hateful Eight
8. In the Heart of the Sea
Best Sound Editing (First Time Predictions)
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
In the Heart of the Sea
Other Possibilities:
6. Sicario
7. The Hateful Eight
8. Jurassic World
Best Original Score (First Time Predictions)
The Hateful Eight
Carol
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Danish Girl
Other Possibilities:
6. The Revenant
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Sicario
9. Brooklyn
10. Mad Max: Fury Road
11. Southpaw
Best Original Song (First Time Predictions)
“Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground
“See You Again” from Furious 7
“Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey
“Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre
“Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey
Other Possibilities:
6. “Simple Song #3” from Youth
7. “One Kind of Love” from Love and Mercy
8. “So Long” from Concussion
Whew! Those predictions reflect a current belief of the following films garnering nominations with number included:
9 Nominations
Carol
8 Nominations
Mad Max: Fury Road
7 Nominations
The Revenant
6 Nominations
The Danish Girl, The Martian, Spotlight
5 Nominations
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4 Nominations
Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, The Hateful Eight, Steve Jobs
3 Nominations
The Big Short, Room
2 Nominations
Cinderella, Fifty Shades of Grey, Inside Out, Love and Mercy, Sicario, Trumbo
1 Nomination
Anomalisa, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Good Dinosaur, The Hunting Ground, In the Heat of the Sea, Joy, Jurassic World, Kahlil Gabron’s The Prophet, Shaun the Sheep Movie, Spectre, The Walk
And now we’ve arrived at my weekly Oscar predictions for the eight biggest categories and yes, things have changed in one week. Most notably, many critics precursor awards have been announced and just in the last 48 hours, nominations for the SAG and Golden Globe awards have been revealed. The past week’s activity has given a huge boost to Mad Max: Fury Road‘s inclusion into the Best Picture race and I’m including it for the first time. Other pics that have received some momentum: Carol, Trumbo (in acting races), and possibly The Big Short.
For the first time, I’m ceasing to list my predicted nominees and other possibilities alphabetically. We are now switching to where I’m listing according to my thoughts on their probability of being nominated.
And here we go, my friends:
Best Picture
Spotlight
The Revenant
Room
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Brooklyn
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Other Possibilities:
10. Inside Out
11. The Big Short
12. Creed
13. Steve Jobs
14. Beasts of No Nation
15. Straight Outta Compton
16. The Danish Girl
17. Son of Saul
18. Anomalisa
19. Trumbo
20. Joy
21. Sicario
22. Love and Mercy
23. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Mad Max: Fury Road, Out: Inside Out
Best Director
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Todd Haynes, Carol
Other Possibilities:
6. Lenny Abrahamson, Room
7. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
8. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
9. John Crowley, Brooklyn
10. Ryan Coogler, Creed
11. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation
12. Adam McKay, The Big Short
13. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul
14. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
15. David O. Russell, Joy
16. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
17. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Todd Haynes. Out: Lenny Abrahamson
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Other Possibilities:
6. Matt Damon, The Martian
7. Will Smith, Concussion
8. Michael B. Jordan, Creed
9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
11. Michael Caine, Youth
12. Steve Carell, The Big Short
13. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Bryan Cranston. Out: Matt Damon
Best Actress
Brie Larson, Room
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Other Possibilities:
6. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams
7. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
8. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back
9. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold
10. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
11. Lily Tomlin, Grandma
12. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
What’s Changed Since Last Week – NO CHANGES
Best Supporting Actor
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
7. Christian Bale, The Big Short
8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
9. Benicio del Toro, Sicario
10. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
11. Jacob Tremblay, Room
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Paul Dano and Idris Elba. Out: Tom Hardy and Mark Ruffalo
Best Supporting Actress
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Rooney Mara, Carol
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Jane Fonda, Youth
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
7. Helen Mirren, Trumbo
8. Joan Allen, Room
9. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy
10. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
11. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
What’s Changed Since Last Week: NO CHANGES
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Bridge of Spies
Son of Saul
Other Possibilities:
6. Love and Mercy
7. Straight Outta Compton
8. 99 Homes
9. Joy
10. Sicario
11. Ex Machina
12. Trainwreck
What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Son of Saul. Out: Love and Mercy
Best Adapted Screenplay
Carol
Steve Jobs
Room
Brooklyn
The Big Short
Other Possibilities:
6. The Revenant
7. The Martian
8. Anomalisa
9. Beasts of No Nation
10. Trumbo
11. Creed
12. The Danish Girl
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: The Big Short. Out: Anomalisa.
And that’ll do it for this week’s predictions! Stay tuned for next Friday’s picks…
We are a bit over a month away from Oscar nominations coming out (January 14th) and it’s time to ramp up my predictions for what and whom will be nominated in the eight top races. I’m adding the two Screenplay categories (Original and Adapted) for the first time and the plan is to make weekly Oscar predictions each weekend until nominations come out. With each race, I’ll inform you what’s changed since the previous predictions post.
And with that, let’s get to predicting, shall we?
Best Picture
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Other Possibilities:
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Creed
The Danish Girl
Joy
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Steve Jobs
Straight Outta Compton
Changes Since Last Predictions: Bridge of Spies, Inside Out (IN), Joy, Steve Jobs (OUT)
Best Director
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Other Possibilities:
Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
Ryan Coogler, Creed
John Crowley, Brooklyn
Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation
Todd Haynes, Carol
Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
David O. Russell, Joy
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Changes Since Last Predictions: George Miller (IN), David O. Russell (OUT)
Best Actor
Matt Damon, The Martian
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Other Possibilities:
Michael Caine, Youth
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
Will Smith, Concussion
Changes Since Last Predictions: NONE
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Other Possibilities:
Emily Blunt, Sicario
Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams
Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Changes Since Last Predictions: Charlotte Rampling (IN), Blythe Danner (OUT)
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Other Possibilities:
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Benicio del Toro, Sicario
Joel Edgerton, Black Mass
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Harvey Keitel, Youth
Jacob Tremblay, Room
Changes Since Last Predictions: Tom Hardy (IN), Idris Elba (OUT)
Best Supporting Actress
Jane Fonda, Youth
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
Joan Allen, Room
Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Kristin Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
Julie Walters, Brooklyn
Changes Since Last Predictions: Jane Fonda (IN), Joan Allen (OUT)
Best Original Screenplay (first prediction in category)
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Love and Mercy
Spotlight
Other Possibilities:
Joy
Sicario
Straight Outta Compton
Youth
Best Adapted Screenplay (first prediction in category)
Anomalisa
Brooklyn
Carol
Room
Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
The Big Short
Creed
The Martian
The Revenant
And there you have it – folks! The next update will come next weekend…
We have arrived at my third round of Oscar predictions for the month of November. Some has changed, some has stayed the same. We’ll go through each of the six major categories one by one…
Let’s go!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This is the one category where I’ve made no changes, though any of the others listed as possibilities could find their way in. Most have Jane Fonda in the mix already, but I’m not quite there yet.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS in SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Joan Allen, Room
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy
Jane Fonda, Youth
Diane Ladd, Joy
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Isabella Rossellini, Joy
Julie Walters, Brooklyn
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
And here we have the most changes of any category! Coming out of nowhere last week was Sylvester Stallone’s acclaimed performance in Creed and as of now, here appears to be a strong contender for a nod and maybe even the win. I’m also including Mark Ruffalo and re-including Idris Elba. Falling out are Benicio del Toro, Robert De Niro, and Tom Hardy, though they all remain possibles. This category has a whole lot of potential nominees, but only five slots available.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for SUPPORTING ACTOR
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Other Possibilities:
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Bradley Cooper, Joy
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Benicio del Toro, Sicario
Robert De Niro, Joy
Joel Edgerton, Black Mass
Harrison Ford, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight
Harvey Keitel, Youth
Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton
Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight
Jacob Tremblay, Room
BEST ACTRESS
Four slots seem to be rather safe and have been for awhile: Cate Blanchett, Brie Larson, Jennifer Lawrence, and Saoirse Ronan. The fifth slot could legitimately be any of the others listed, but for now I’ve removed Carey Mulligan and replaced her with Blythe Danner.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Other Possibilities:
Emily Blunt, Sicario
Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
BEST ACTOR
Only one change here as I currently feel the massive box office success of The Martian will get Matt Damon in. That takes Michael Caine out. Watch out for Will Smith, though, even though I don’t yet have him in the final cut.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTOR
Matt Damon, The Martian
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Other Possibilities:
Michael Caine, Youth
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Will Smith, Concussion
BEST DIRECTOR
Two changes here as I believe Danny Boyle may miss out and George Miller won’t be the wild card pick I predicted in October. This puts David O. Russell and Ridley Scott in.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for DIRECTOR
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
David O. Russell, Joy
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Other Possibilities:
Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
Ryan Coogler, Creed
John Crowley, Brooklyn
Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation
Todd Haynes, Carol
Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
BEST PICTURE
I am still predicting nine nominees out of the possible five-ten and I’ve made two changes. I’m putting Carol back in the mix and The Martian in for the first time. That leaves out Bridge of Spies and The Danish Girl, though both remain major contenders. It’s worth noting that Steve Jobs, due to its disastrous box office performance, is not even close to a shoo in and it could fall off.
TODD’s PREDICTIONS for PICTURE
Brooklyn
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Joy
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Creed
The Danish Girl
Inside Out
In the Heart of the Sea
Mad Max: Fury Road
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Straight Outta Comption
And that does it for my November Oscar predictions, folks! I’ll have the December predictions up shortly before Christmas…
It’s onto part 3 of my second round of Oscar predictions and Best Actress is on the docket. Between my previous posts covering the Supporting Actor and Actress races, I changed half of those ten predictions from my initial round in late August and early September.
For Actress, only one prediction has changed and that was because Alicia Vikander’s role in The Danish Girl (predicted here weeks ago) has been switched by its studio to Supporting. The four previous predicted women – Cate Blanchett in Carol, Jennifer Lawrence in Joy, Carey Mulligan for Suffragette and Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn remain.
The newcomer could also be the current front runner. Brie Larson’s performance in Room has been earning raves and her nomination is virtually assured. Blanchett is actually competing with herself as her lead role in Truth could get in instead of her work in Carol.
More than any other race, this one has remained the most consistent and we shall see if that remains when my third round of predictions is revealed in November. Tomorrow: Best Actor.
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