Oscar Predictions – Mufasa: The Lion King

30 years ago, Disney’s animated The Lion King landed four Oscar nominations with three of its tracks nominated in Original Song. “Can You Feel the Love Tonight” (performed by Elton John) was the victorious track over “Circle of Life” and “Hakuna Matata”. Tim Rice also took home the gold for his score. 25 years later, the photorealistic remake directed by Jon Favreau was up for Visual Effects but fell short to 1917.

And now – Mufasa: The Lion King, which serves as a prequel and sequel to the remake, hits multiplexes Friday. Barry Jenkins, maker of 2016’s Best Picture Moonlight, made the surprising choice to direct it. Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, Beyoncé and her daughter Blue Ivy, Aaron Pierre, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Tiffany Boone, Mads Mikkelsen, Thandiwe Newton, Lennie James, and Anika Noni Rose are among the cast.

Will this contend for anything? We do know it has two chances. The Oscar shortlists were unveiled this afternoon (a post regarding that will be up shortly) and Mufasa made the ten possibilities for Visual Effects and “Tell Me It’s You” is among 15 tunes eligible.

Those are likely the only two races where this stands a chance. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 59% with Metacritic at 58. I think it has a better shot in VE than Original Song, but wouldn’t be surprised to see it miss both come nomination morning. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Mufasa: The Lion King Box Office Prediction

Mufasa: The Lion King roars into theaters December 20th serving as a prequel and sequel to 2019’s live-action The Lion King. It was, of course, a remake of the 1994 Disney animated classic and it grossed a massive $1.6 billion worldwide. Barry Jenkins, the Oscar winning director of Moonlight, directs. The voiceover cast with several returning from five years ago includes Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, Aaron Pierre, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Tiffany Boone, Mads Mikkelsen, Thandiwe Newton, Lennie James, Anika None Rose, Blue Ivy Carter, and her mom Beyoncé Knowles-Carter.

In the summer of ’19, King turned out to be a phenomenon with a $191 million opening and eventual $543 million domestic haul. Despite the heavy cash, many critics were harsh though it did earn an A Cinemascore. I’m still not sure audiences are clamoring for the prequel/sequel.

Don’t get me wrong. Plenty of parents and their kiddos will turn up. I’m just not expecting anywhere near the figures of what we saw a half decade ago. The Christmas holiday typically means even tentpole titles will start out slower than what they might in other seasons. Mufasa also must contend with Sonic the Hedgehog 3 which debuts directly against it and could be more front loaded.

I’m projecting the Lion premieres in second behind the Hedgehog with a low 50s gross and it’ll probably leg out solidly in the weeks to follow.

Mufasa: The Lion King opening weekend prediction: $51.3 million

For my Sonic the Hedgehog 3 prediction, click here:

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Box Office Prediction

With a similar distribution deal to what Taylor Swift cut with AMC Theaters last month, Queen Bey brings her world tour to the multiplexes on December 1st with the release of Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé. The documentary concert pic hopes to capture a fraction of what Ms. Swift took in ($175 million thus far domestically).

No matter what happens, the performer will see lots of dough since (like Swift) she’ll receive 50% of the gross. That said, while Beyoncé is obviously a beloved international superstar, Renaissance will be fortunate to bring in a third of what The Eras Tour accomplished for its start. The Swifties propelled Eras to a record breaking $92.8 million premiere.

Anything over $30 million should be considered a tremendous debut. Even a low to mid 20s start could put it in the #1 spot to start off December at the box office (depending on where Wish and other Thanksgiving leftovers are at). I’ll say this falls in that range.

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé opening weekend prediction: $20.7 million

For my Silent Night prediction, click here:

For my Godzilla Minus One prediction, click here:

For my The Shift prediction, click here:

For my Animal prediction, click here: