Tag: Blitz

97th Academy Awards Predictions: December 30th Edition

These are last Oscar predictions in calendar year 2024 and I’ll likely do the final forecast on Tuesday, January 14th before the nominations are revealed on Friday, January 17th. It got me wondering how accurate my projections were for the 96th Academy Awards covering 2023 at this point in the calendar. Turns out… I did a post on December 29th of last year. The results? That’s what I’ll focus on in this write-up while giving you my predictions for the next broadcast.

The quick version is that my December 29th, 2023 forecast yielded 79 of the eventual 105 nominees. That’s not far off from my eventual tally of 84 of 105 when the announcements were made in January 2024. This includes 10 for 10 (!) in Best Picture and 5 for 5 in Makeup & Hairstyling. I went 4 for 5 in 10 other competitions while getting 3 for 5 in eight other competitions. There wasn’t one category where I didn’t have the winner listed as a nominee… except for in Visual Effects (we’ll get to that at the bottom).

Let’s get to it with some chatter about my performance in the previous year to use a potential context for what’s to come.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Substance (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)

13. September 5 (PR: 12) (-1)

14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (E)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

10 for 10 on the Best Picture nominees and that includes listing eventual victor Oppenheimer at #1.

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)

9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)

10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jon M. Chu, Wicked

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5 and I correctly had Christopher Nolan’s direction of Oppenheimer listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Greta Gerwig (Barbie) in over Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), who was listed in 8th position.

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2.Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Eventual winner Emma Stone (Poor Things) was listed in 2nd after Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon). I incorrectly had Greta Lee (Past Lives) nominated over Annette Bening (Nyad), who I had listed in ninth.

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. I had the winner Cillian Murphy of Oppenheimer listed second after Bradley Cooper from Maestro. Where I went wrong – I had Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) nominated over my #6 Colman Domingo (Rustin).

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Joan Chen, Dídi

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. I correctly had Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – Julianne Moore (May December) and Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) in over Jodie Foster for Nyad (who I had in sixth) and America Ferrera in Barbie (who was 8th at that time).

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29 –

4 for 5. I correctly had Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) listed in first. Where I went wrong – I had Charles Melton (May December) being nominated over #7 Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction.

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

5. September 5 (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)

8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (E)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (E)

10. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Challengers

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Winner The Holdovers was listed 2nd while I had Barbie ranked 1st. It would be moved into Adapted Screenplay shortly thereafter. Where I went wrong – listing Barbie instead of #7 Maestro.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)

7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (-1)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wicked (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. Per above, I had Barbie listed in Original instead of Adapted at that time. Winner American Fiction was slotted fourth. Where I went wrong – having Killers of the Flower Moon and All of Us Strangers instead of Barbie and #6 The Zone of Interest.

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)

5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kneecap (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Universal Language (PR: 9) (+2)

8. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Flow (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Dahomey (PR: 6) (-4)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. The Zone of Interest was correctly listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – The Taste of Things was predicted over #9 lo capitano.

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)

9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)

10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Winner The Boy and the Heron was listed in 2nd. Where I went wrong – predicting The Peasants over #10 Robot Dreams.

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Daughters (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-1)

8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. 20 Days in Mariupol was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – Beyond Utopia and American Symphony were predicted over #9 Bobi Wine: The People’s President and unranked To Kill a Tiger.

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maria (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (E)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Anora

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest nominated over #10 El Conde.

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: 7) (-3)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed in 2nd (behind Barbie). Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)

7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Challengers (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Air and Barbie nominated over #6 The Holdovers and #8 Anatomy of a Fall.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

5 for 5! Winner Poor Things was listed second behind Maestro.

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Challengers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest and The Boy and the Heron nominated over #10 American Fiction and the unranked Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie was correctly in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had “Road to Freedom” from Rustin and “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple nominated over #6 “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony and #9 “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)

9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed 2nd behind Barbie. Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

7. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. I had winner The Zone of Interest listed fourth. Where I went wrong – Ferrari and Napoleon being nominated over #8 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 The Creator.

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wicked (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)

7. Better Man (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. My #4 Godzilla Minus One won. Where I went wrong – this is the one category where my #1 (Poor Things) ended up not getting nominated. That’s in addition to having Society of the Snow getting in. #7 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 Napoleon made the cut instead.

Whew. And that leaves the following pictures garnering these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

10 Nominations

The Brutalist

9 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

8 Nominations

Conclave

7 Nominations

Wicked

5 Nominations

Anora, The Substance

4 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II, Sing Sing

3 Nominations

Maria, Nickel Boys

2 Nominations

The Girl with the Needle, Nosferatu, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

Alien: Romulus, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

97th Academy Awards Predictions: December 22nd Edition

My latest Oscar forecast follows the reveals for shortlists earlier this week where we now know the 15 finalists in International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, and Original Song. We were also given the 20 hopefuls in Original Score and ten pictures standing in Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects. I covered my reaction to the shortlists here:

2024 Oscar Shortlists Reaction

Best Sound is the category most altered by the announcement of ten finalists. The Brutalist, which clings to my #1 ranking in Best Picture, falls out of Sound altogether while A Complete Unknown rises two spots to third position. That’s not the only significant development for the Bob Dylan biopic starring Timothée Chalamet. Three days before its opening, I have Unknown in my BP ten for the first time and that’s at the expense of A Real Pain. That’s not all. Edward Norton’s performance as Pete Seeger in the movie enters the Supporting Actor quintet with Yura Borisov (Anora) now on the outside looking in.

In Best Actress, that pesky fifth slot goes back to Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) over Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths.

You can read all the movement below as I now have Emilia Pérez leading all nominees with 11 to The Brutalist‘s 10. I’ll have another update up post Christmas and pre-New Year’s!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Substance (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sing Sing (PR: 9) (+1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (-1)

12. September 5 (PR: 13) (+1)

13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-1)

14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (E)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)

7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR; 6) (E)

7. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. September 5 (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)

8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (E)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (E)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-1)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wicked (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)

5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Kneecap (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Flow (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Universal Language (PR: 9) (E)

10. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)

10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Daughters (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Dahomey (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)

7. Union (PR: 7) (E)

8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (E)

9. Porcelain War (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maria (PR: 8) (+4)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Challengers

Wicked

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Maria (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Blitz (PR: 10) (+3)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (E)

10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)

5. September 5 (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Challengers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Substance (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Wicked (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. A Different Man (PR: 4 (E)

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Emila Pérez (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Waltzing with Brando (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sasquatch Sunset

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+2)

4. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (E)

5. Challengers (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nickel Boys

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (+2)

7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Forbidden Road” from Better Man

“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl

“Better Way to Live” from Kneecap

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Substance

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Blitz (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-3)

7. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Brutalist

Nosferatu

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

The Substance

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Better Man (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Substance

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

And that works out to the following numbers of nominations for these films:

11 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

10 Nominations

The Brutalist

8 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, Wicked

7 Nominations

Conclave

5 Nominations

Anora, Sing Sing, The Substance

4 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II

3 Nominations

Maria, Nickel Boys, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

The Girl with the Needle, Nosferatu, A Real Pain, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

1 Nomination

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

2024 Oscar Shortlists Reaction

Every year in December, we get a clearer picture of several races at the forthcoming Oscars when shortlists are unveiled. For feature-length categories, this applies to International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Original Score, Original Song, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects. In Score, we are given a list of 20 finalists in contention. For Song it’s 15. Same goes for the foreign and doc derbies. For the other 3 down-the-line competitions, we are given the standing 10 hopefuls. When nominations are eventually announced, all of these races will be whittled down to the final five.

Let’s walk through all seven of the shortlisted categories with some commentary, shall we?

Best International Feature Film

Shortlisted Movies: Armand, Dahomey, Emilia Pérez, Flow, From Ground Zero, The Girl with the Needle, How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, Santosh, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Touch, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Waves

There weren’t any major surprises as my top 10 IFF contenders from my previous update all made the cut. The additional five are Armand (which has been in my 10 before), From Ground Zero, Santosh, Touch, and Waves. Mexico’s Sujo and Japan’s Cloud are somewhat notable omissions.

Best Documentary Feature

Shortlisted Movies: The Bibi Files, Black Box Diaries, Dahomey, Daughters, Eno, Frida, Hollywoodgate, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Queendom, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Union, Will & Harper

Nine of my previous ten docs are in with the other six being The Bibi Files, Eno, Frida, Hollywoodgate, Porcelain War, and Queendom. The only missing entry was my #9 from last weekend – Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story. It’s not out of character for the doc branch to leave off some of higher profile titles.

Best Original Score

Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Babygirl, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Blink Twice, Blitz, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Fire Inside, Gladiator II, Horizon: American Saga – Chapter 1, Inside Out 2, Nosferatu, The Room Next Door, Sing Sing, The Six Triple Eight, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Young Woman and the Sea

Like in IFF, all ten of my contenders remain intact with another 10 in the mix. So while there’s no huge shockers, Queer and Saturday Night were expected to show up here.

Best Original Song

Shortlisted Songs: “Beyond” from Moana 2, “Compress/Repress” from Challengers, “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez, “Forbidden Road” from Better Man, “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper, “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight, “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing, “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez, “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late, “Out of Oklahoma” from Twisters, “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece, “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap, “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King, “Winter Coat” from Blitz

The songs that got in for Twisters, Kneecap, and Mufasa were not the tunes I would’ve predicted for that trio. In my top ten from last weekend, I had “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap. In a notable snub, Miley Cyrus’s “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl (a Globe nominee) is out.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Shortlisted Movies: The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu, The Substance, Walking with Brando, Wicked

In one of the larger twists, the little-seen Waltzing with Brando dances into this category. My number 8 Sasquatch Sunset and 9 Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga don’t get in. Furiosa had a bad day as it was blanked from this, Score, and the next two categories.

Best Sound

Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Wicked, The Wild Robot

Here’s where I had the most misses and this is the only place where a predicted nominee fails to show. That would be my #4 The Brutalist. There’s also Nosferatu (8th), Furiosa (9th), and The Substance (10th) not in contention. Alien had a good day by the way while The Substance only made it in Makeup (which it could win).

Best Visual Effects

Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Civil War, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Mufasa: The Lion King, Twisters, Wicked

I would’ve thought Civil War had a stronger chance in Sound, but it’s here along with Alien instead of my #7 The Substance and #10 Furiosa.

Bottom line: there’s no jaw dropping snubs in my view like there have been in some past years. Yet now we can probably safely assume Furiosa has no road to any Oscar nominations unless the Production Design branch bails it out (unlikely).

97th Academy Awards Predictions: December 14th Edition

A boatload of Oscar precursor nominations have rolled in since I last forecasted my predictions on December 1st from the Golden Globes to Critics Choice to AFI and the National Board of Review. As is usually the case, it causes certain performers and pictures to be much more assured in their position of getting in the Academy mix. Yet it can also muddy up the waters for others. A Real Pain missing Critics Choice was a surprising snub. Sing Sing performed poorly at the Globes. Blitz and Gladiator II are all but out of the Best Picture equation. I could go on and on but let’s focus on what’s changed in my projections for the major races since the dawn of December.

While my BP lineup remains the same, I came darn close to putting A Complete Unknown in over either Sing Sing or A Real Pain. It has a strong shot after getting Globe and Critics Choice nods in the big dance. I also flirted with putting Conclave at #1, but have The Brutalist still in first in a wider open field than normal in mid-December. The most significant climber is The Substance from 10th to 7th.

For the first time this year after multiple posts beginning in the spring, Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) is not listed in my director five. Jacques Audiard jumps back in for Emilia Pérez. I feel pretty good about my top 7 making the cut in the race. Obviously that’s problematic since only five can.

Despite no recognition from the Globes, Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) vaults into my Actress quintet though I was reluctant to drop Cynthia Erivo (Wicked).

While my Best Actor five is intact, Timothée Chalamet’s performance as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown rises from 4th to 2nd. He has emerged as a genuine challenger for the gold (along with Ralph Fiennes in Conclave) to Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. Another development: after unexpectedly landing Globe and CCA noms, Hugh Grant (Heretic) is in Other Possibilities for the first time.

While my Supporting Actress field remains the same, I’m putting Yura Borisov (Anora) in Supporting Actor to the detriment of Conclave‘s Stanley Tucci, who missed CCA and the Globes.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (-1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Substance (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-2)

10. A Real Pain (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Complete Unknown (PR: 15) (+4)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-1)

13. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Gladiator II

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilie Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-3)

7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 8) (E)

9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (E)

5. Isabella Rosselini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (E)

7. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joan Chen, Dídi

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jonathan Bailey, Wicked

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. September 5 (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)

8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Challengers (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

His Three Daughters

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hit Man (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

The Piano Lesson

Queer

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)

5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kneecap (PR: 6) (E)

7. Flow (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Dahomey (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Universal Language (PR: 8) (-1)

10. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Armand

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

2. Flow (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilites:

6. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Transformers One (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Spellbound (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daughters (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Union (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

A New Kind of Wilderness

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Challengers (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Anora

Blitz

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Conclave (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sing Sing

Saturday Night

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)

4. A Different Man (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 6) (E)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (E)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Challengers (PR: 7) (+4)

4. The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two – deemed ineligible

Saturday Night

Blitz

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilties:

6. “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-4)

10. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Blitz (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Substance (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Twisters

Conclave

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)

4. Better Man (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Twisters (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

The Brutalist

9 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

Conclave, Wicked

6 Nominations

Anora, The Substance

4 Nominations

Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Sing Sing

3 Nominations

Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

Better Man, A Complete Unknown, The Girl with the Needle, Maria, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

1 Nomination

Challengers, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

30th Critics’ Choice Awards Nominations Reaction

Nominations for the 30th Critics’ Choice Awards were out this morning in a bustling week of precursor activity. I went 108 for 131 in my overall predictions in the feature film races. Let’s briefly go through each competition listing the nominees, how I did, and what I missed.

Best Picture

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 8/10

A Complete Unknown and Nickel Boys get in over my picks of Challengers and A Real Pain

Best Director

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

How I Did: 6/8

The “How I Did” number is misleading as I assumed there would be 6 nominated filmmakers and not 8. I correctly named six who made it, but didn’t predict Audiard and Ross.

Best Ensemble

Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Wicked

How I Did: 5/6

I had The Brutalist and not Saturday Night

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

How I Did: 5/6

Jean-Baptiste, who was snubbed for a Golden Globe nom, is in over Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) who did nab a GG mention.

Best Actor

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic)

How I Did: 5/6

A surprising selection of Grant over my pick of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice. Three days after garnering a Globe slot in Actor (Musical or Comedy), is it possible that Grant makes it in with the Academy?

Best Supporting Actress

Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

How I Did: 5/6

A solid showing for Nickel Boys this morning. Ellis-Taylor in over Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

How I Did: 4/6

Borisov and Norton are up instead of Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) and Stanley Tucci (Conclave). Tucci has now missed GG and CCA. Borisov and Norton have made both.

Best Young Actor/Actress

Alyla Browne (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail), Zoe Ziegler (Janet Planet)

How I Did: 4/6

Browne and Ziegler over Nykiya Adams (Bird) and Anora‘s Mark Eidelstein.

Best Original Screenplay

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

How I Did: 6/6

Yay!

Best Adapted Screenplay

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Wicked

How I Did: 5/6

Perez and not The Room Next Door.

Best Foreign Language Film

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, Flow, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

How I Did: 5/6

Flow and not Vermiglio.

Best Animated Feature

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 5/5

I thought there would be six nominees so I also selected Transformers One. CCA decided to go with a handful of animated titles. I’m counting it as 5/5. I’ll be taking no questions.

Best Comedy

Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, My Old Ass, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma

How I Did: 5/6

I had the critics considering Anora a comedy, but they didn’t so it’s My Old Ass instead (which was my runner-up).

Best Cinematography

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 4/6

Nosferatu and Wicked over Challengers and Emilia Pérez.

Best Costume Design

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 5/6

Conclave and not Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.

Best Editing

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune, September 5

How I Did: 5/6

September 5 gets in and not The Substance.

Best Hair and Makeup

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 6/6

Yay!

Best Production Design

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 5/6

I went with Emilia Pérez. They went with Conclave.

Best Score

The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 6/6

Yay!

Best Song

“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

How I Did: 5/6

“Beautiful” is in; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing is out.

Best Visual Effects

Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 3/6

My weakest showing as Better Man, Gladiator II, and The Substance are honored instead of Deadpool & Wolverine, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. and Twisters.

And there you have it. Below are the total numbers of nominations for respective pictures. I’ll have winner predictions up shortly before the January 12th ceremony!

11 Nominations

Conclave, Wicked

10 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez

9 Nominations

The Brutalist

7 Nominations

Anora, The Substance

5 Nominations

Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

4 Nominations

Challengers, Gladiator II, Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

Flow, Maria, My Old Ass, Saturday Night, September 5

1 Nomination

Abigail, All We Imagine as Light, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Blitz, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dídi, A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Hard Truths, Heretic, Hit Man, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Janet Planet, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, The Last Showgirl, Memoir of a Snail, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Thelma, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

30th Critics’ Choice Awards Nomination Predictions

Chelsea Handler returns to host the 30th Critics’ Choice Awards occurring January 12th and tomorrow brings the nominations. The ceremony can often be a reliable barometer for the Oscars. In the last two years, it agreed on Picture and Director with the Academy and went 5 for 8 in the acting derbies.

At CCA, there are 10 Best Film contenders and then 6 in the other races. Here’s my projections along with a runner-up selection for all competitions. I’ll have a recap up tomorrow with how I did and overall thoughts!

Best Film

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked

Runner- Up: September 5

Best Director

Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

Runner-Up: Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)

Best Ensemble

Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, Wicked

Runner-Up: Saturday Night

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

Runner-Up: Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths)

Best Actor

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Runner-Up: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)

Best Supporting Actress

Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariane Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Runner-Up: Selena Gomez (Emila Pérez)

Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Stanley Tucci (Conclave), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

Runner-Up: Yura Borisov (Anora)

Best Original Screenplay

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

Runner-Up: Saturday Night

Best Adapted Screenplay

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, The Room Next Door, Sing Sing, Wicked

Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

Best Foreign Film

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio

Runner-Up: The Girl with the Needle

Best Animated Feature

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Transformers One, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Piece by Piece

Best Cinematography

The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys

Runner-Up: Nosferatu

Best Costume Design

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked

Runner-Up: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Editing

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, The Substance

Runner-Up: Wicked

Best Makeup and Hair

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

Runner-Up: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Production Design

The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

Runner-Up: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Score

The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Wicked

Best Song

“Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl

Best Visual Effects

Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Twisters, Wicked

Runner-Up: Gladiator II

Best Comedy

Anora, Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma

Runner-Up: My Old Ass

Best Young Actor

Nykiya Adams (Bird), Mark Eidelstein (Anora), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail)

Runner-Up: Cailey Fleming (IF)

That works out to these numbers with The Brutalist leading with 11 and 4 movies tying with 10 nominations apiece:

11 Nominations

The Brutalist

10 Nominations

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

8 Nominations

Anora

7 Nominations

The Substance

6 Nominations

Challengers

4 Nominations

A Real Pain

3 Nominations

Gladiator II, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Deadpool & Wolverine, Maria, Nickel Boys

1 Nomination

82nd Golden Globe Awards Nomination Predictions

The 82nd Golden Globe Awards will come our way in a month on January 5th with Nikki Glaser handling hosting duties. Nominations are out this coming Monday (12/09). Readers of the blog know that I do a whole lotta Oscar speculating. That’s not the case with the GG’s but I’m giving you take on who and what will be nominated.

For the Globes, there are six nominees in each race with the exception of Cinematic and Box Office Achievement where there’s 8. I’ll give my picks along with a runner-up. Some quick notes: the Globes divide their Picture and lead acting derbies into Drama and Musical/Comedy. The designations below are the reported slots where films and performers are contending. Yes, there’s interesting choices with Heretic in comedy. On the flip side, if A Complete Unknown had submitted in Musical/Comedy, Timothée Chalamet might be the easy frontrunner in Best Actor.

Next week I’ll have a recap up with how I did and my early frontrunners for winners!

Best Motion Picture – Drama

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Nickel Boys

Sing Sing

ALTERNATE – The Room Next Door

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Anora

Challengers

Emilia Pérez

A Real Pain

The Substance

Wicked

ALTERNATE – A Different Man

Best Director

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

Sean Baker, Anora

Jon M. Chu, Wicked

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

ALTERNATE – Edward Berger, Conclave

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

Angelina Jolie, Maria

Nicole Kidman, Babygirl

Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door

Kate Winslet, Lee

ALTERNATE – Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Daniel Craig, Queer

Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

ALTERNATE – John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comed

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez

Mikey Madison, Anora

Demi Moore, The Substance

June Squibb, Thelma

Zendaya, Challengers

ALTERNATE – Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

Hugh Grant, Heretic

Michael Keaton, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Glen Powell, Hit Man

Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool & Wolverine

Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

ALTERNATE – Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night

Best Supporting Actress

Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez

Ariana Grande, Wicked

Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

Margaret Qualley, The Substance

Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

ALTERNATE – Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov, Anora

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Stanley Tucci, Conclave

Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

ALTERNATE – Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Best Screenplay

Anora

The Brutalist

Conclave

Emilia Pérez

Sing Sing

The Substance

ALTERNATE – A Real Pain

Best Animated Feature

Flow

Inside Out 2

Memoir of a Snail

Moana 2

Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

The Wild Robot

ALTERNATE – Piece by Piece

Best Non-English Language Film

All We Imagine as Light

Emilia Pérez

The Girl with the Needle

I’m Still Here

Kneecap

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

ALTERNATE – Universal Language

Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Deadpool & Wolverine

Despicable Me 4

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II

Inside Out 2

Twisters

Wicked

ALTERNATE – Moana 2

Best Score

The Brutalist

Challengers

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

The Wild Robot

ALTERNATE – The Room Next Door

Best Song

“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez

“Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper

“Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot

“Like a Bird” from Sing Sing

“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

“Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece

ALTERNATE – “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl

That means I have these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

10 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

The Brutalist

6 Nominations

Conclave

5 Nominations

Anora, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked

4 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

3 Nominations

Challengers, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Complete Unknown, Deadpool & Wolverine, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2

1 Nomination

All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Babygirl, Despicable Me 4, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Hard Truths, Heretic, Hit Man, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, Lee, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Nickel Boys, The Outrun, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Thelma, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

AFI Awards 2024: Reaction

Each year the American Film Institute (AFI) names their ten best films of the year and it’s become a reliable bell weather for 7-8 Best Picture nominees at the Oscars. How about a look at the past 15 years and their track record since the Academy expanded to more than five BP contenders?

2009: 5/10 match

2010: 9/10

2011: 7/9

2012: 8/9

2013: 7/9

2014: 6/8

2015: 6/8

2016: 7/9

2017: 7/9

2018: 5/8

2019: 7/9

2020: 6/8

2021: 8/10

2022: 7/10

2023: 8/10

There’s an important caveat as this is the American Film Institute. Therefore movies considered international do not make the cut. They often get a “special” award and that was the case with Roma, Parasite, and The Banshees of Inisherin.

Today’s AFI announcement was surprising in the sense that there was only one. Emilia Pérez was thought by most to be ineligible for the 10 due to its foreign flavor, but it managed to make the cut. The AFI list is as follows:

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

Nickel Boys

A Real Pain

Sing Sing

Wicked

Not a shocker in the group. This seems like a key inclusion for Nickel Boys and A Real Pain in solidifying their status as legit BP players. I suspect that if some prognosticators knew Emilia would be eligible, several of them would’ve gone 10/10.

Let’s analyze, shall we? The AFI has a habit of naming mainstream pics that the Academy ignores. Examples in the last decade include Into the Woods, Inside Out, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Straight Outta Compton, Zootopia, Wonder Woman, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, Knives Out, Soul, Nope, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.

Note the amount of animated features. This is where a nod for The Wild Robot wouldn’t have been unexpected. The fact that it didn’t land here is an indication of its chances in the Academy’s BP derby… none. The same might be said for Gladiator II. It’s been out of my top 10 and I had it placed 13th in Other Possibilities last weekend. Don’t be surprised it drops out of the top 15 in my next update.

Other features that could have benefitted from a spot here include The Substance, September 5, Nosferatu, Blitz, The Room Next Door, and recent Gotham recipient A Different Man.

That said… we don’t expect this to be the Oscar top ten…

Do we?!? It sure could be. Yes, that would be the first time AFI and the Academy match 10/10. Yet the only difference I have right now is The Substance over A Complete Unknown and the latter seems to be picking up some steam. We still have Critics Choice and their top ten en route. They’re another pretty reliable barometer. I’ll say right now, though, that at least 8 of AFI’s picks will be the Academy’s and perhaps more…

Keep an eye on this blog for all Oscar precursor chatter!

97th Academy Awards Predictions: December 1st Edition

As December dawns, my first Oscar predictions in two weeks have substantial changes for us to mull over. It begins with Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance as I have put it in my Best Picture top ten where it had yet to be listed. I still have reservations about including it. This is not the type of genre material that Academy voters usually go for. However, it has its vocal admirers and is one of the most buzzed about pictures of 2024.

The love for The Substance doesn’t stop there. Fourteen days ago, I had it pegged for only a single nomination in Makeup and Hairstyling. Now I have it nabbing five other mentions: Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, and Film Editing.

My BP inclusion for The Substance knocks out Steve McQueen’s Blitz. In fact, Blitz has fallen the most in my estimation in recent days. Two weeks ago, I had it achieving five nods. Now I have it only managing a Best Sound mention.

In Director, Fargeat’s rise puts Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) on the outside looking in. There are two newbies in Best Actress: the aforementioned Demi Moore and Cynthia Erivo from the massively successful Wicked. Their additions subtract Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun) and Amy Adams (Nightbitch).

Speaking of Wicked, Ariana Grande is now in my Supporting Actress quintet and that takes out… Saoirse Ronan for Blitz. That means that I went from projecting Ronan as a double nominee to none.

There are no changes in my Actor and Supporting Actor lineups. I will note that the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown has started industry screenings while the review embargo hasn’t lifted. The early buzz indicates that Timothée Chalamet is looking solid for a nom while its chances elsewhere are shakier.

You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update available in mid-December!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Substance (PR: 13) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Blitz (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (E)

15. A Complete Unknown (PR: 15) (E)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jon M. Chu, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Robert Eggers, Nosferatu

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Kinglsey Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Paul Mescal, Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Substance (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)

8. September 5 (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)

10. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hit Man (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (E)

10. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A Complete Unknown

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kneecap (PR: 6) (E)

7. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Universal Language (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Dahomey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Armand (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Grand Tour

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

7. Transformers One (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Chicken for Linda! (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Savages

Spellbound

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sugarcane (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Union (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daughters (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Dahomey (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A New Kind of Wilderness (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Separated

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Anora (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Blitz (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maria (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Conclave (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Emila Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Substance (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Substance (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Wicked (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. A Different Man (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 6) (E)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Conclave (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Challengers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (E)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Nosferatu

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 7) (+4)

4. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Harper & Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Beyond” from Moana 2

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maria (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Blitz (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Conclave (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Twisters (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Better Man (PR: 6) (E)

7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

The Brutalist

8 Nominations

Conclave, Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

Wicked

6 Nominations

Sing Sing, The Substance

5 Nominations

Anora, Gladiator II

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

Maria, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

1 Nomination

Black Box Diaries, Blitz, A Complete Unknown, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Union, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

97th Academy Awards Predictions: November 17th Edition

My first Oscar predictions in two weeks and it’s about what narratives I’m buying and which ones I’m selling. For example, I’m currently not sold that Paramount’s September 5 is the contender that some other prognosticators think it is.

On the flip side, I am starting to buy that Conclave is on the rise. The Focus Features effort from Edward Berger is performing well at the box office for an adult skewering drama. I think it has to a shot to win the big prize and that’s why you’ll see it elevated in multiple categories.

While my BP and directorial and Best Actress lineups are unchanged as far as hopefuls, Daniel Craig (Queer) returns to my Actor quintet at the expense of Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice). In Supporting Actor, it is the same five but Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is perched atop the list for the first time. In Supporting Actress, I’m banking on Isabella Rossellini potentially riding that Conclave goodwill and that leaves Ariana Grande (Wicked) on the outside looking in.

You can read all the movement below and the next update should arrive on Thanksgiving weekend!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Conclave (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Real Pain (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Substance (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+1)

15. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 8) (+2)

7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Steve McQueen, Blitz

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)

7. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

John Magaro, September 5

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Substance (PR: 9) (+3)

7. September 5 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Blitz (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Hit Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kneecap (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Universal Language (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

9. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Grand Tour (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Armand

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

2. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Spellbound (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Most Precious of Cargoes

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daughters (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Union (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Separated (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Gaucho Gaucho

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Anora (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Blitz (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (E)

8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Substance (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Substance (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+3)

4. A Different Man (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wicked (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Challengers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Beyond” from Moana 2 (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Blitz (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 4) (E)

4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Twisters (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Civil War

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Twisters (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Better Man (PR: 6) (E)

7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Here

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

9 Nominations

The Brutalist, Conclave

6 Nominations

Wicked

5 Nominations

Anora, Blitz, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Sing Sing

3 Nominations

A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, Saturday Night, The Substance, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl