The Fault in Our Stars director Josh Boone is back in the romantic drama genre with Regretting You on October 24th. Adapting Colleen Hoover’s 2019 novel, the Paramount release stars Allison Williams, Mckenna Grace, Dave Franco, Mason Thames, Willa Fitzgerald, Scott Eastwood, and Clancy Brown.
The studio is hoping that Hoover’s readers come out in droves like they did last year with It Ends with Us. That Blake Lively and Justin Baldoni team-up (and it’s safe to say the last one) began with a sizzling $50 million. Regretting isn’t expected to get anywhere near that. If this reached $20 million out of the gate, that would be a massive win.
Tracking has it in the low to mid teens and that sounds right.
Regretting You opening weekend prediction: $14 million
For my Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere prediction, click here:
Zoë Kravitz’s directorial debut Blink Twice and The Crow reboot make their way to multiplexes this weekend, but the top 3 may look familiar… albeit with a potential change at the top. We also have the faith-based drama The Forge (a spin-off of the surprise 2015 hit War Room) entering the fray. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
The dog days of August are when newbies can struggle to find an audience. I have Blink and The Crow separated by about a million bucks with both falling under $10 million. Set to premiere on more screens, I’m giving Blink the slight edge for a fourth place finish with The Crow landing in fifth.
The Forge is a potential wild card. I wouldn’t be shocked if it cleared $10 million and contended for fourth or even third. Yet I have it just behind the other debuts for a sixth place showing.
Alien: Romulus started toward the higher end of expectations (more on that below). It also nabbed a better Cinemascore grade (B+) than the B’s generated by predecessors Prometheus and Alien: Covenant. In 2012, Prometheus fell a steep 59% in its sophomore outing while 2017’s Covenant took a 71% nosedive. I’ll say Romulus eases in the mid to upper 50s for a late teens second frame.
If Deadpool & Wolverine only experiences a mid 30s decline, the MCU juggernaut could rise back to #1 and that’s what I’m envisioning. It Ends with Us from Mrs. Deadpool aka Blake Lively should hold third position in the low teens.
Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $19.2 million
2. Alien: Romulus
Predicted Gross: $17.8 million
3. It Ends with Us
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million
4. Blink Twice
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
5. The Crow
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
6. The Forge
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
Box Office Results (August 16-18)
Disney/20th Century Studios had another winner on their hands as Alien: Romulus easily got to 1st place with $42 million, ahead of my $35.2 million prediction. With mostly complimentary reviews, audiences were ready for a seventh series entry that built upon the $36 million start of Covenant seven summers ago. It did not reach the $51 million heights that Prometheus managed.
Deadpool & Wolverine slipped to second after three weeks in the pole position. The superhero mashup took in $30 million, right on target with my $29.5 million forecast for $546 million thus far.
It Ends with Us dwindled an understandable 52% with a third place $23.8 million finish. I went a little higher at $27.9 million as the romantic drama is nearing the century mark after ten days at $97 million.
Twisters was fourth with $10 million, in line with my $9.8 million forecast for a five-week tally of $238 million.
Finally, the 15th anniversary re-release of the stop-motion animated fantasy Coraline rounded out the top five with $9.8 million. I incorrectly didn’t factor it in my estimates. The extra cash brought its total since 2009 to $87 million.
Alien: Romulus will attempt to dethrone Deadpool & Wolverine after three weeks atop the charts while Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure looks to bring in youngsters and their parents. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
The seventh feature in the Alien series dating back 45 years should grind out a #1 showing if it manages to hit in the lower to mid 30s or above. I have it coming in a bit under what 2017 predecessor Alien: Covenant achieved ($36 million).
Deadpool & Wolverine would fall to the #2 slot in its fourth frame, easing somewhere between 40-45%. It Ends with Us, starring Mrs. Deadpool Blake Lively, might lose around half its audience in its sophomore outing after a spectacular start (more on that below).
As for Ryan’s World the Movie: Titans Universe Adventure, it’s a giant question mark. Based on a popular YouTube channel that attracts plenty of kiddos, I have it in the mid single digits. That would put it in fifth after Twisters. However, I do think it has the capacity to over perform. Or… it could totally flop. I freely admitted in my longer write-up that I’m flying blind with this one.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 playing out:
1. Alien: Romulus
Predicted Gross: $35.2 million
2. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $29.5 million
3. It Ends with Us
Predicted Gross: $27.9 million
4. Twisters
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
5. Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
Box Office Results (August 9-11)
Despite a serious challenge, the MCU reigned supreme as Deadpool & Wolverine took in $53.7 million for three in a row. That figure is beyond my $49.6 million prediction as this has banked $493 million domestically so far. Worldwide it has already scored a billion bucks.
As mentioned, It Ends with Us began with a terrific premiere. Based on the bestseller by Colleen Hoover, it was runner-up with a cool $50 million (doubling the reported $25 million price tag). My estimate kept rising last week, but it still outpaced my $43.8 million projection.
Twisters was third with $15 million compared to my $13.9 million forecast as the four-week tally reached $222 million.
Borderlands, based on a well-known video game series, laid claim to biggest bomb of 2024. With a rumored budget of $120 million, the critically blasted sci-fi action tale was fourth with $8.6 million. I was on target with an $8.1 million call.
Despicable Me 4 rounded out the top five with $7.9 million (I said $8.6 million) as the animated sequel is up to $330 million after six weeks.
Finally, M. Night Shyamalan’s Trap fell 57% in weekend #2 to $6.6 million, in line with my $6.1 million take. The thriller has made a so-so $28 million in ten days.
Based on Colleen Hoover’s 2016 bestseller, the romantic drama It Ends with Us begins what should be a fruitful box office run this weekend. Justin Baldoni directs and costars with Blake Lively. The supporting cast includes Brandon Sklenar, Jenny Slate, and Hasan Minhaj.
Despite its financial prospects looking encouraging (it should finish a strong second behind Deadpool & Wolverine starring Lively’s hubby), Oscar possibilities are considerably weaker. The melodrama stands at 61% on RT and that won’t start any awards conversation. I will note the current rating is higher than 2022’s Where the Crawdads Sing (34%) which this is frequently being compared to. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Updates (08/08): Two updates for the newcomers on the eve of their premieres. Bumping It Ends with Us from $39.8 million to $43.8 million and downsizing Borderlands from $11.3 million to $8.1 million.
After the 8th best second weekend of all time at the domestic box office, Deadpool & Wolverine should rule the charts for a third frame. Yet the most serious competition for Ryan Reynolds thus far will come from his wife Blake Lively. That’s courtesy of the romantic drama It Ends with Us based on the bestseller from Colleen Hoover. Its breakout potential could cause it to over perform even beyond my forecast. We also have the video game based sci-fi action comedy Borderlands with Cate Blanchett and Kevin Hart. My detailed prediction posts on both newbies can be found here:
It Ends should begin with impressive numbers. The source material looks to bring in a sizable female audience who have been underserved in these summer months. My low to mid 30s call puts it easily in second and I could envision it going even higher.
I’m not expecting fireworks for Borderlands. Despite its video game series being popular, my low double digits take would place it in fourth behind the fourth go-round for Twisters.
Deadpool & Wolverine should lose about half its sophomore weekend crowd and that would give it high 40s for a third championship session.
Despicable Me 4 may only fall one slot to fifth. The percentage drop should be meager compared to M. Night Shyamalan’s Trap. His latest thriller underwhelmed (more on that below) and I foresee it plummeting around 60% to sixth place.
Here’s how I see that top 6 playing out:
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $49.6 million
2. It Ends with Us
Predicted Gross: $43.8 million
3. Twisters
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million
4. Despicable Me 4
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
5. Borderlands
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
6. Trap
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
Box Office Results (August 9-11)
As mentioned, Deadpool & Wolverine managed the 8th largest weekend #2 with $96.8 million, easily clawing beyond my $84.6 million prediction. The MCU mashup has amassed $395 million in only ten days.
Twisters held tight in second with $22.8 million, blowing past my $18.1 million estimate. In three weeks, the sequel has hit $195 million with $200 million coming this week.
Mr. Shyamalan’s Trap performed in line with predecessors Old and Knock at the Cabin. In third place, the $15.4 million gross was under my $19.2 million projection. This opening is certainly on the lower end of the expected range and the C+ Cinemascore grade suggests the aforementioned large drop is coming.
Despicable Me 4 was fourth with $11.4 million compared to my $9.4 million call. The five-week total is $314 million.
Inside Out 2 rounded out the top five with $6.8 million for $626 million so far in eight weeks. I incorrectly had it outside the high five.
That’s because the family friendly and poorly reviewed Harold and the Purple Crayon couldn’t draw its crowd. With $6 million in sixth place, it fell under my $7.6 million prediction.
Blogger’s Update (08/08): On the eve of its premiere, bumping my estimate from $39.8 million to $43.8 million
Blake Lively’s husband Ryan Reynolds will certainly have the largest summer 2024 opening with Deadpool & Wolverine, but her romantic drama It Ends with Us could be poised for an impressive beginning. Based on a 2016 novel by Colleen Hoover that was a huge bestseller, Lively costars with Justin Baldoni. He also handles directorial duties. The supporting cast includes Jenny Slate, Hasan Minhaj, and Brandon Sklenar.
Originally set for release in February, then June, and finally settling on the August date, Ends should be shrewd seasonal counter programming. The Sony release could perform similarly to last year’s Where the Crawdads Sing. It was also based on a wildly popular book. Opening to $17 million in July 2022, it eventually legged out to $90 million domestically.
Ends might even be more front loaded. Some estimates have this in the $25 million range. My hunch is to go higher in the upper 30s to even low 40s.
It Ends with Us opening weekend prediction: $43.8 million
After massive box office success with the two A Quiet Place horror pics, John Krasinski is in family mode when IF debuts Friday. Combining live-action with animation, Ryan Reynolds headlines the human cast with a ginormous list of familiar faces voicing imaginary friends from Steve Carell to Emily Blunt to George Clooney to Matt Damon and Bradley Cooper and many more.
The review embargo is up and reaction is mixed. With a 59% RT score, any awards prospects are shaky. The one exception could be Visual Effects, but I don’t even think it’s guaranteed to make the shortlist (let alone the final five). In other words, putting this anywhere in your Academy forecast represents a big… well, you know. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Paramount is banking on John Krasinski’s latest directorial project to make lots of noise at multiplexes when IF debuts on May 17th. Mixing live-action with animation, the comedy’s real-life cast consists of Ryan Reynolds, Cailey Fleming, Fiona Shaw, Alan Kim, Liza Colón-Zayas, Bobby Moynihan, and Krasinski himself. The sprawling list of performers providing voiceover work includes the filmmaker’s Office costar Steve Carell, Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Krasinski’s spouse Emily Blunt, the late Louis Gossett Jr., Matt Damon, Maya Rudolph, Jon Stewart, Sam Rockwell, Sebastian Maniscalco, Christopher Meloni, Richard Jenkins, Awkwafina, Blake Lively, George Clooney, Matthew Rhys, Bradley Cooper, Amy Schumer, Keegan-Michael Key, and Vince Vaughn.
Handling screenplay duties as well, this is a far cry from the director’s A Quiet Place pics. The summer’s first feature geared toward families, this should capitalize on the absence of genre material in the marketplace (it’s been two months since Kung Fu Panda 4). The title, by the way, stands for Imaginary Friend.
The chance for this to rise above expectations seems real. I think it could make $50 million for starters. It could also start out slowly and hope for decent legs in subsequent weekends. A worst case scenario could be $25-30 million. I’m giving it $35-40 million out of the gate.
IF opening weekend prediction: $38.3 million
For my The Strangers: Chapter 1 prediction, click here:
Just as our collective world has changed around us in the past few days and will continue for the foreseeable future, so will this little movie blog of mine. Simply put – a lot of us (myself included) are going to be home for awhile. Therefore, the best use of this blog at the moment is shifting away from box office predictions and Oscar speculation.
Beginning right now, I’m going to post a Daily Streaming Guide recommending movies currently streaming on Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime. It’s likely that I’ll throw in Disney+ and HBO in from time to time. Hopefully this will assist my readers in identifying some worthy pictures to view at home. Let’s get to it, shall we?
Netflix
1984’s Purple Rain turned Prince into a global musical superstar. The soundtrack that accompanied it is a nine-track masterpiece in which every song demands repeat listens. Here’s a fair warning – the film itself is of its time. This is a kind way of saying that there’s some dialogue and attitudes that wouldn’t pass muster in 2020. That said, I would recommend it as a time capsule to witness a genius at a juncture of his creative peak. The performances alone with his band The Revolution that include the title tune, “Let’s Go Crazy”, “Darling Nikki”, and more are worth the price of streaming.
Hulu
Keeping with the musical theme, Cameron Crowe’s 1989 teen romance Say Anything… is known mostly for a shot of John Cusack holding up a boom box blaring Peter Gabriel’s “In Your Eyes”. It’s an iconic scene, but the picture itself is among the most intelligent and insightful experiences dealing with young love. Just as 80s icon John Hughes wrote teens as human beings as opposed to walking hormones, Crowe’s screenplay accomplishes the same.
Amazon Prime
For something more recent, Paul Feig’s A Simple Favor from 2018 belongs more in the guilty pleasure space. A charcoal black comedy starring Anna Kendrick and Blake Lively, this twisty thriller knows it’s ridiculous and is simply a whole lot of fun. This might be best enjoyed with a dry martini or two on standby.
I’ll be back at it tomorrow, folks! Until then – be well and stay safe!
Blogger’s Note (01/29): Revising my estimate from $8 million down to $6.5 million
Paramount is hoping their spy thriller The Rhythm Section makes sweet music at the box office next weekend, but it’s likely to face an uphill battle. Reed Morano directs Blake Lively as a woman investigating the death of her family in a plane crash. Costars include Jude Law, Sterling K. Brown, and Max Casella.
Like many titles that end up in January, Section has seen its release date delayed from February to November 2019 and now this. Looking at comps in similar genre territory, 2011’s Hanna took in just over $12 million for its start. In 2012, Haywire premiered with $8.4 million.
Without much buzz surrounding it, I could see Rhythm falling in between those numbers. That puts it just under or just over double digits.
The Rhythm Section opening weekend prediction: $6.5 million
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