The Fantastic Four: First Steps stomps into multiplexes this Friday as the 37th MCU pic’s review embargo lifted today. Directed by Matt Shakman, the fourth Four feature in the 21st century (and second reboot) is easily generating the strongest reviews of the quartet. Vanessa Kirby, Pedro Pascal, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, and Joseph Quinn are the title heroes with Julia Garner, Natasha Lyonne, Paul Walter Hauser, and Ralph Ineson providing support.
The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 86% with a 65 Metacritic. That’s slightly behind its Marvel predecessor Thunderbolts* (88% RT/68 Meta). Yet of the three MCU adventures of 2025 (Captain America: Brave New World being the other), this likely stands the best shot at Oscar attention. That’s in the Visual Effects race which are being widely praised. As we’ve discussed on the blog multiples times, MCU flicks get nominated in VE and don’t win. They are 0 for 14 beginning with 2008’s Iron Man. I don’t expect Steps to be their inaugural victor, especially with Avatar: Fire and Ash on the way.
Another aspect being singled out is Michael Giacchino’s score. Black Panther is the only MCU title that’s been nominated for Original Score (it also won). Giacchino is a two-time nominee for Ratatouille and Up for which he took gold). Fantastic might be a long shot in the musical composition competition though I wouldn’t completely discount it. Same goes for its 1960s production design. The likeliest scenario is a sole VE nod. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
On rare occasions, the need arises to update my Oscar prognosis on a particular picture if warranted. When I penned my post for Ryan Coogler’s Sinners on April 13th, I didn’t discount its awards potential. I wrote of its solid chances in down-the-line competitions including Ludwig Goransson’s lauded score and the sound and production design.
However, I also wrote this:
So could Sinners score above-the-line mentions? I think it’s possible, but I wouldn’t predict it at the moment. Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay could materialize depending on how competition shakes out in the months ahead.
I don’t need to wait until the months ahead to revise my remarks. Sinners has taken the box office by storm in addition to its critical acclaim. When my initial write-up was published nearly three weeks ago, the vampire drama stood at 100% on RT. It barely lost any steam with 98% at press time, a 97% audience score and 84 on Metacritic.
On the financial front, Coogler’s latest has taken in $123 million domestically after less than two weeks and it should reach $250 million or higher. Sinners has become part of the cultural zeitgeist and that’s a recipe for a strong showing this awards season.
So what’s the best case scenario for this? The ceiling has undeniably gotten higher. I now believe that Sinners will be nominated for Best Picture with Director and Original Screenplay as major possibilities. In addition to the aforementioned Score, Production Design, and Sound, there are other below the line categories where it could pop up. That includes the new Casting race, Original Song (where the track “I Lied to You” from cast member Miles Caton might stand the best shot), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Visual Effects. Regarding that new casting competition, I’m confident this will be in a sturdy position to vie for Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards next year.
I didn’t discuss the actors involved in mid-April because I wasn’t seriously considering their inclusion. That has changed. Michael B. Jordan could factor into the Best Actor race. In Supporting Actress, it could be Hailee Steinfeld or Wunmi Mosaku (with the former probably having an edge to nab her second nod after 2010’s True Grit). For Supporting Actor, there’s Delroy Lindo, Caton, or Jack O’Connell. Some of this may come down to who Warner Bros mounts campaigns for. The narrative for Lindo might be tempting. Five years ago, he probably narrowly missed the cut for Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods. He’s a well-respected veteran actor who’s never been nominated and the Academy could look to rectify that.
Back to that best case scenario. If all went perfectly, that would be 16 nominations and the record stands at 14 (shared by Titanic, All About Eve, and La La Land). Do I think that’ll happen? No. Would 12 or 13 nods surprise me? No.
Some prognosticators may think it’s too early to think anything has secured one of the ten BP slots. And there’s always the matter of a horror movie making the cut. Yet Get Out and The Substance brought the genre into the big dance in the past decade. As for the timeline, it was rather clear that Dune: Part Two was going to be a Warner Bros hopeful at this juncture in 2024 and that turned out to be accurate. Another counterargument is that WB will focus on Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. Time will tell on that one, but there’s no reason the studio can’t have two contenders and I’m skeptical (based on the trailer) that Battle is a surefire play over Sinners.
Three weeks ago I wasn’t predicting Sinners for BP and beyond “at the moment”. That moment arrived quickly for me to reconsider. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Thunderbolts* is generating stronger critical reaction than most of the MCU’s recent offerings. The 36th entry in the franchise (out Friday) comes from director Jake Schreier with Florence Pugh, Sebastian Stan, Wyatt Russell, Olga Kurylenko, Lewis Pullman, Geraldine Viswanathan, David Harbour, Hannah John-Kamen, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus among the cast.
2025’s summer starter sits at 87% on Rotten Tomatoes with a 69 Metacritic. Particular praise is being given to Pugh, a Supporting Actress nominee for 2019’s Little Women. Despite reviews calling Thunderbolts* full of grit and heart, don’t expect this to be a BP nominee like the MCU’s Black Panther from 2018. I also wouldn’t bank on Pugh become the second MCU acting nominee behind Angela Bassett from 2022’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.
So where it could score noms? The score from Son Lux (whose work in Everything Everywhere All at Once was up three years ago) could be a long shot contender. Yet as usually is the case with Marvel, Visual Effects is where this stands the best chance. As has been discussed on this blog numerous times, the MCU has been up 14 times for VE and gone 0 for 14. I wouldn’t anticipate Thunderbolts* being the first winner, but it could make the five. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Sinners, which reunites Michael B. Jordan with his Creed and Black Panther director Ryan Coogler, looks for a strong Easter weekend showing at multiplexes. Seeking to challenge A Minecraft Movie for the top spot, you can peruse my detailed prediction post on the vampire flick here:
It could be a real photo finish for the #1 slot. Sinners is holding at a remarkable 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and that should help build buzz. My mid 40s projection might equal box office supremacy.
Yet I have Minecraft barely managing bragging rights with a low 40s percent ease for a third week in first. The separation is less than $1.5 million between the leaders.
Holdovers in their sophomore frames should populate the rest of the top five via The King of Kings, The Amateur, and Warfare.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $46.1 million
2. Sinners
Predicted Gross: $44.8 million
3. The King of Kings
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
4. The Amateur
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
5. Warfare
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
Box Office Results (April 11-13)
A Minecraft Movie mastered the charts once again with $78.5 million, on pace with my $77.9 million call. The video game based smash has amassed $278 million in just two weeks of release.
Five newcomers filled the next spots with animated The King of Kings from Angel Studios outpacing its competitors. With an A+ Cinemascore, it was runner-up with $19.3 million. That’s falling shy of my $21.4 million estimate, but it’s still a terrific result.
The Amateur with Rami Malek was third with $14.8 million. That’s at the top of the anticipated range for the spy thriller and outdoes my $11.9 million prediction.
Warfare from Alex Garland and Iraq War vet Ray Mendoza managed fourth with $8.3 million, on target with my $8.5 million projection.
Blumhouse thriller Drop was fifth with a meh $7.3 million. I was close at $7.6 million. The B Cinemascore is decent for its genre though I’d look for this to fade quickly.
Finally, The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 took sixth with $6 million, I was a tad lower at $5.5 million.
Warner Bros appears to have a hit rising on their hands this Easter weekend via Sinners. The 1930s set vampire tale casts Michael B. Jordan as twin brothers returning to New Orleans to face blood sucking nemeses. Hailee Steinfeld, Miles Caton, Jack O’Connell, Wunmi Mosaku, Jayme Lawson, Omar Benson Miller, Li Jun Li, and Delroy Lindo costar.
This is Jordan’s latest collaboration with his Creed and Black Panther director Ryan Coogler. Many critics are saying this is the filmmaker’s most accomplished work. That’s evidence by its rare 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes (after 45 reviews) and 83 on Metacritic.
Sinners is not the type of genre exercise that typically generates awards attention. Yet it might be hard for voters to ignore the praise (and likely incoming box office bounty). For down-the-line attention, Ludwig Göransson’s score is being singled out and he’s already a two-time Academy victor for Black Panther and Oppenheimer. He could certainly be nominated again for his composing. I wouldn’t discount nods in Sound and maybe even Production Design.
So could Sinners score above-the-line mentions? I think it’s possible, but I wouldn’t predict it at the moment. Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay could materialize depending on how competition shakes out in the months ahead. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Michael B. Jordan reunites with his Creed and Black Panther director Ryan Coogler on April 18th with Sinners. The vampire tale with an original script from the auteur casts Jordan in dual roles with Hailee Steinfeld, Miles Caton, Jack O’Connell, Wunmi Mosako, Jayme Lawson, Omar Benson Miller, Li Jun Li, and Delroy Lindo providing support.
Reviews are impressive with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 83 Metacritic. With an Easter release, the forecast is that Sinners takes in $35-40 million for its start. The R rating might slightly limit its potential though that could be negligible. Given the high profile re-teaming of star and filmmaker and buzz that should build considering the critical reaction, I think it might exceed expectations.
The 31st SAG Awards hosted by Kristen Bell air on Netflix this Sunday and are the last major precursor before the Oscars on March 2nd. The winners here will not influence the Academy since voting closed this week.
That said, the correlation between SAG victors and Oscar winners can be high. In Actress over the past decade, it’s 7 out of 10. For Actor – 8 out of 10. In the supporting fields, we’re looking at a whopping 9/10 for both.
At SAG, the top prize is Best Ensemble and not Best Picture. Therefore we have less frequency between those competitions matching. Yet it’s a decent 6 out of 10 including the last 3 with CODA, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Oppenheimer.
Let’s walk through each race and I’ll give you my winner pick and a runner-up. I’ll have a recap posted Sunday evening!
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
All 5 nominees here are BP hopefuls at Oscar and that’s the first occurrence of that since 2014. Unknown and the scandal plagued Pérez are long shots. The other three are all stronger possibilities. Conclave is fresh off the BAFTA coronation while Anora recently completed the hat trick of DGA/PGA/Critics Choice. That said, Wicked really over performed with nods in Actress, both supporting fields, and Stunt Ensemble. And (spoiler alert) I’m not predicting it to win any of those. It isn’t rare for the Ensemble recipient to blank everywhere else – Black Panther, Parasite, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 all did so from 2018-2020. I’ll give a slight edge to the musical adaptation.
PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED
Runner-Up: Anora
Outstanding Performance by Female Actor in a Leading Role
Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)
This really has the feel of a coin flip after Madison is the recently minted BAFTA winner while Moore has the Golden Globe and Critics Choice. I just think this group of actors might be swayed by the comeback narrative. Nevertheless this seems so close.
PREDICTED WINNER: DEMI MOORE, THE SUBSTANCE
Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
Many believe this is Chalamet’s best opportunity to interrupt Brody’s potential sweep. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens since Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce from The Brutalist both missed here and are Oscar nominees. The smart money is on Brody but I’m going with the mild upset in this one.
PREDICTED WINNER: TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Runner-Up: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Don’t discount Grande with Wicked‘s nomination haul. However, Saldaña has swept thus far and seems immune to any controversy with the picture.
PREDICTED WINNER: ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ
Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
Norton is maybe the only real threat to Culkin’s seasonal sweep. I don’t believe it’ll be interrupted.
PREDICTED WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN
Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Gladiator II, Wicked
This could go to Dune: Part Two (though the first one lost to No Time to Die) or even Wicked, but this might be a layup for SAG to honor the movie about stunt ensembles.
We are 37 films deep into the Marvel Cinematic Universe with The Fantastic Four: First Steps as the latest entry. This is my space to give you my personal listing of the MCU sagas that began in 2008 with Iron Man.
This list will be updated as new comic book based adventures come our way.
37. The Marvels (2023)
36. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2023)
35. Thor: Love and Thunder (2022)
34. Captain America: Brave New World (2025)
33. Eternals (2022)
32. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022)
31. Iron Man 2 (2010)
30. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (2022)
29. Thor: The Dark World (2013)
28. Ant-Man (2015)
27. Thor (2011)
26. Captain Marvel (2019)
25. The Incredible Hulk (2008)
24. Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018)
23. Black Widow (2021)
22. Captain America: First Avenger (2011)
21. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)
20. Spider-Man: Far from Home (2019)
19. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (2021)
Blogger’s Update (11/08): I am lowering my The Marvels prediction from $62.3 million to $46.3 million and that gives it the lowest MCU premiere ever.
After a series of delays dating back to summer 2022, the MCU’s 33rd adventure arrives November 10th with The Marvels. Nia DaCosta, best known for her 2021 Candyman remake, directs. Captain Marvel Brie Larson leads a cast that includes Teyonah Parris, Iman Vellani, Zawe Ashton, Park Seo-joon, and Samuel L. Jackson.
Beginning with Spider-Man: No Way Home, we’ve seen a run of six MCU pics that opened to $100 million or over. It certainly helped that each one of them was a sequel in a well-established sub franchise including Guardians of the Galaxy, Thor, and Black Panther.
The nine digit premiere streak should end here and the debut may look more like a trilogy of titles from 2021. Black Widow started with $80 million in the summer of that year and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings did $75 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of its Labor Day weekend bow. Finally, Eternals managed $71 million in November.
Two years later, I’m not confident The Marvels even matches those grosses. Other than Captain Marvel and Jackson’s Nick Fury, the other characters are relatively unknown compared to various Avengers counterparts. There’s always the risk of superhero overload and we’ve seen our share of letdowns in the genre in 2023 (The Flash, Blue Beetle, Shazam! Fury of the Gods). Yes, those were all DCU, but the subpar earnings could apply here.
I’m projecting The Marvels will have the lowest MCU beginning since Ant-Man ($57 million) back in 2015. That would be a rather significant letdown for Marvel in their third feature from Phase Five and the third smallest opening overall of the 33 picture series.
The Marvels opening weekend prediction: $46.3 million
For my Journey to Bethlehem prediction, click here:
We will see if it struggles at the box office (which is expected) or exceeds projections, but Blue Beetle is topping expectations with its reviews. The 14th pic in the DC Universe currently has the 4th best Rotten Tomatoes score (81%) behind Wonder Woman, Shazam!, and The Suicide Squad. Ángel Manuel Soto directs the origin story with Xolo Maridueña as the title hero.
The MCU has racked up plenty of Visual Effects nods (though no victories) in addition to a BP nod for Black Panther five years ago. The DCU’s awards exposure has been far more limited. 2016’s Suicide Squad (not the stronger reviewed 2021 reboot The Suicide Squad) won for Makeup and Hairstyling. And that, my friends, is the extent of the DCU Oscar mentions.
It is worth noting that Visual Effects this year looks kind of thin. The unseen Dune: Part Two is probably the easy frontrunner while the other four slots are up for grabs. Beetle is getting some praise for its visuals and it likely stands a better chance than earlier ’23 DCU titles Shazam! Fury of the Gods and The Flash. If it can make the shortlist, maybe it gets in. I wouldn’t bet on it, but it’s doable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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