Nosferatu Box Office Prediction

Focus Features is hoping horror fans sink their teeth into Nosferatu when it premieres on Christmas. A remake of the 1922 German classic which adapted Bram Stoker’s Dracula, Robert Eggers directs. Bill Skarsgård takes on another classic scary villain after Pennywise in the It chapters. Costars include Nicholas Hoult, Lily-Rose Depp, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Emma Corrin, Ralph Ineson, Simon McBurney, and Willem Dafoe.

Reviews are strong with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 82 Metacritic score. This caps off a year filled with numerous acclaimed fright features. Nosferatu could manage the largest debut among the holiday openings considering its only real competition is A Complete Unknown.

During this season, newcomers often start out lower than they typically would and develop stronger legs into January. With 12/25 falling on a Wednesday, I’ll project Nosferatu manages low teens from Friday to Sunday with close to an equal amount when factoring in Christmas and the day after.

Nosferatu opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday estimate); $26.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my A Complete Unknown prediction, click here:

For my Babygirl prediction, click here:

For my The Fire Inside prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: Nosferatu

Acclaimed filmmaker Robert Eggers brings his version of Nosferatu to multiplexes on Christmas Day with Bill Skarsgård embodying the iconic vampire. Based on the 1922 classic German film which was spawned from Bram Stoker’s Dracula, this is Eggers’ fourth feature after the critically praised The Witch, The Lighthouse, and The Northman. Lily-Rose Depp, Nicholas Hoult, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Emma Corrin, Ralph Ineson, Simon McBurney, and Willem Dafoe populate his dark vision.

The review embargo lifted over three weeks before the opening and critics are (sorry…) mostly sinking their teeth into this. With 96% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic, the question isn’t whether Nosferatu gets Oscar nods. It’s how many. That’s because I’m confident tech nods are coming its way. Makeup & Hairstyling, Costume Design, Cinematography, and Production Design all seem achievable and I had it nabbing those four nods in my predictions from yesterday. Sound and (to a lesser degree) Visual Effects and Original Score could be on the menu.

As for above the line mentions, that is more questionable. Lily-Rose Depp is drawing raves for her lead work, but Best Actress is probably too crowded and I don’t currently have her in my top 10. Skarsgård, who terrified us as Pennywise in It, is being lauded for his supporting role. Yet we know the Academy doesn’t warm to performances in the horror genre.

I wouldn’t completely discount Picture or Eggers in director. Nosferatu‘s stock could rise exponentially if it grabs AFI or National Board of Review best of slots. For now, I feel more comfortable having the film and its maker on the outside looking in for recognition while below the lines noms should be materializing. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Crow Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate Films is currently reeling from Borderlands performing a box office belly flop. On August 23rd, they hope The Crow reboot flies higher with moviegoers. Bill Skarsgård trades in the Pennywise makeup for the comic book based vigilante hero first made famous onscreen 30 years ago by Brandon Lee (who was killed in an onset tragedy during filming). Costars include FKA Twigs, Danny Huston, and Josette Simon. Rupert Sanders, who was behind the camera on Snow White and the Huntsman and Ghost in the Shell, directs.

While this is the fifth feature in the franchise, it is the first in nearly 20 years. Fun fact: Skarsgård is the fifth actor to play the title role following Lee, Vincent Perez, Eric Mabius, and Edward Furlong. The last two entries from 2000 and 2005 experienced limited theatrical runs before going the direct-to-video route.

1994’s original gained plenty of notoriety due to the death of its lead. It also struck a chord with youth culture and was assisted by a hit soundtrack. Fans of that picture are three decades older and probably have little interest in this long-in-development project which at times had Bradley Cooper, Jason Momoa, and others attached.

The marketing campaign seems muted. General brand recognition could get this to $10 million, but it may fall a bit under that. That’s not much to crow about considering the reported $50 million budget.

The Crow opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million

For my Blink Twice prediction, click here:

For my The Forge prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: Boy Kills World

If the Oscars ever do bring in a Best Stunt Ensemble race at their ceremony, perhaps a post for something like Boy Kills World would feel more appropriate. This is the latest John Wick style action thriller marking the directorial debut of Moritz Mohr. Bill Skarsgård is the central character in revenge mode after his family bites the dust. Costars include Jessica Rothe, Michelle Dockery, Famke Janssen, Sharlto Copley, Brett Gelman, Isaiah Mutafa, and Andrew Koji.

Out this weekend, this failed to generate any box office heat with less than $2 million. Critics were a tad kinder with a meh 61% RT score. The Wick pics get buzz for potential Sound or VE nods that do not materialize. If they can’t manage it, these perceived knock-offs are far behind. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

John Wick: Chapter 4 Review

No franchise has seen more actors submit headshots to get their heads shot than this one. Nearly a decade has passed since the puppy of John Wick (Keanu Reeves) was offed by Russian mobsters in the 2014 original. Much less time has expired onscreen as we arrive at Chapter 4. In the features that have followed, the world building continues to grow as the squib games ramp up.

As a quick reminder, Wick was a legendary hitman mourning his wife’s death from natural causes in 2014. When the condemned criminals caused the demise of his very good boy, it triggered a thirst for revenge still not quenched. The storyline also veered into unexpected and violently enjoyable directions. This includes The Continental, stylish hotels across the globe that cater to nefarious types. The Wick world also established its own set of rules for how these characters behave. It’s all set in a cinematic universe where law enforcement is on permanent break and an all-powerful syndicate The High Table calls the shots.

Ultimately it’s an excuse for long take battles where Keanu and his friends and enemies (and in some cases frenemies) find fresh ways to shoot indistinguishable baddies in the head. This can be monotonous but director Chad Stahelski and his team of technicians and stunt persons more often impress with their inventive set-ups.

In 2019’s Chapter 3 – Parabellum, Wick was left for dead by the High Table and rescued by underground crime lord the Bowery King (Laurence Fishburne, still having a ball). Our title character is in heavy revenge mode as the travelogue takes him to Morocco on horseback and then New York City, Japan, and Berlin. His back is always against the wall as the reward for his killing is $20 million and increasing.

The main player tasked with extinguishing Wick is Caine (Donnie Yen), a blind former Table assassin reluctantly returning to employment. His lack of sight causes creative ways for him to accomplish goals. Every time a bell rings around him, a henchman gets his wings (you’ll see). His hirer is the arrogant and ruthless Marquis (Bill Skarsgård), making for a delightfully smarmy addition. Skarsgård nailed the role of Pennywise with his demented sideways glances in the It double feature. Now he has another memorable villainous turn. Ian McShane’s Continental manager Winston (last seen putting a bullet into Wick) is more supportive this time. Shamier Anderson turns up as a skilled bounty hunter waiting for the price to be right before taking Wick out. In keeping with the franchise’s canine connection, he has a dedicated pooch who enacts cruelty to would-be tormentors. The dog’s presence also humorously reveals that even hotels for the underworld must adopt a policy for emotional support animals.

I have a tough time ranking these movies over the others. It sort of feels like one long movie. This one feels a bit longer because it is. Chapter 4 probably doesn’t need to clock in at three hours, but the action sequences continue to wow and this edition has the best adversary. As long as they continue to stay this solid and stylish, my policy will be to support them.

*** (out of four)