Dead Man’s Wire from Gus Van Sant is being compared to the crime movies of the mid to late 70s era it takes place in after it premiered at Venice with additional play in Toronto. Bill Skarsgård headlines as a real life kidnapper in a role that’s drawing impressive reviews. The supporting cast includes Dacre Montgomery, Colman Domingo, Myha’la, Cary Elwes, John Robinson and Al Pacino.
There has been more than one comparison to 1975’s Dog Day Afternoon (starring Pacino). Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with 73 on Metacritic. Distribution rights are unsettled so there’s no guarantee this is out in 2025. While there’s across the board thumbs in the right direction, I’m not sure it is enough for this to break out in awards chatter. There’s the sneaky possibility of Skarsgård gaining momentum, but I’m not convinced. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
The second post in this series is Best Supporting Actor. If you missed my write-up for Best Actress, you can access it here:
Unlike some of the other categories… Best Picture for example… I do believe there’s a legit frontrunner in Supporting Actor and that’s Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. He has received a quartet of significant Oscar precursor nominations thus far: the Golden Globe, the BAFTA long list, SAG, and Critics Choice. That’s in addition to a slew of critics group prizes. Most significantly, he won the Golden Globe last week. The only potential drawback to a victory is that A Real Pain is a question mark for Best Picture inclusion. Since the Academy’s BP nominees expanded to more than five (and now a set 10) starting in 2009, 14 of the 15 Supporting Actor recipients came from films nominated in the biggest race. The only exception is 2011 with Christopher Plummer from Beginners. If A Real Pain gets into the BP derby, it’ll be much simpler to project Culkin as the victor. If not, that makes him more of a soft leader in the contest.
There are two other performers with the aforementioned precursors to their credit – Yura Borisov in Anora and Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown. At this juncture, it would be bold to leave either of them off the ballot. Both come from surefire BP hopefuls.
So does Guy Pearce of The Brutalist. The veteran actor seeks his first nomination. I’ve had him consistently ranked 2nd behind Culkin for weeks. His SAG omission was a surprise, but he still looks relatively safe for inclusion.
That leaves us with one spot left to fill. Before we consider that, let’s remember a time when these gentlemen had shots for the 97th Academy Awards. In some cases, the movies didn’t turn out to be Oscar contenders or their roles weren’t substantial enough to make the cut. I speak of Tom Hardy or Michael Shannon from The Bikeriders, Benedict Cumberbatch in The Book of Clarence, Brendan Gleeson in Joker: Folie à Deux, and Giancarlo Esposito from Megalopolis.
There’s a next level up of performances. It might not be totally impossible for them to get in, but there’s been no evidence precursor wise to realistically believe they’re a threat. This list includes Josh O’Connor from Challengers, Peter Sarsgaard and John Magaro from September 5 and Bill Skarsgård and Willem Dafoe in Nosferatu, and Drew Starkey in Queer. Same goes for Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside), Adam Pearson (A Different Man), and Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson). Chris Hemsworth drew raves for Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, but he hasn’t shown up anywhere. Same story for Dune: Part Two supporting players Javier Bardem and Austin Butler. And John Lithgow (Conclave) and Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora) are likely to cede the spotlight to their costars.
With one spot remaining, I have five contenders worthy of chatter: Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Stanley Tucci (Conclave), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?
Speaking of costars, it sure seemed like Wicked‘s Jonathan Bailey would be on the outside looking in while his popular cast mates Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande would get noms. Yet his unexpected SAG inclusion this week puts him in the mix. Nevertheless I have him 5th out of these 5 possibilities.
Clarence Maclin took his real life experience behind bars and became a critical darling playing himself in Sing Sing. He made the BAFTA long list and Critics Choice ballot but missed SAG and the Globes. Oscar may still remember him, but he’s currently 3rd out of these 5 possibilities.
Jeremy Strong’s work as Roy Cohn in The Apprentice has snagged BAFTA long list, the Globes, and SAG and only missed Critics Choice. An excellent argument can be made for Culkin’s Succession costar. At the moment, I have him 2nd of the 5 possibilities which puts him just outside. I could see that changing when I make final picks on Wednesday.
Stanley Tucci is a dark horse for Conclave. No SAG, Globe, or Critics Choice. Just the BAFTA long list and I don’t have him predicted to make their final five. I could envision a scenario where he comes along for the ride at Oscar if they really love Conclave. He’s 4th out of these 5 possibilities.
Denzel Washington’s turn in Gladiator II was correctly called the sequel’s brightest spot. He has the BAFTA long list, Globe, and Critics Choice locked down. SAG voters, on the other hand, surprisingly ignored him. That makes a 10th acting Oscar nomination questionable. I currently have him 1st out of these 5 possibilities and that gets him in. This is mainly predicated on the fact that he’s Denzel Washington and that has worked before (see his 2017 nomination for Roman J. Israel, Esq.).
There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Supporting Actor for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a dive into Supporting Actress up next!
Blogger’s Update (03/20): Wick appears poised for a massive over performance. I am revising from projection from $69.1M to $85.5M.
Each Wick pic has burned brighter at the box office than the previous entry and the trend looks to continue as John Wick: Chapter 4 is unleashed on March 24th. Keanu Reeves is back in the title role with Chad Stahelski returning to direct. The supporting players are a mix of familiar franchise faces and newcomers including Donnie Yen, Bill Skarsgård, Hiroyuki Sanada, Shamier Anderson, Lance Reddick, Rino Sawayama, Ian McShane, and Laurence Fishburne.
In the fall of 2014, the first Wick was a modest success when it debuted with $14 million and $43 million domestic overall. Those numbers seem meager now, but they were better than anticipated and more fans were gained when it hit the home viewing circuit. The 2017 sequel took in $30 million out of the gate with $92 million total. In 2019, Chapter 3 – Parabellum soared to a $56 million premiere with $171 million in the stateside bank.
At nearly three hours long, Chapter 4 is generating some of the strongest reviews of the series. With 91% on Rotten Tomatoes, critics are particularly praising the choreography of its wild action sequences. That should get plenty of genre fans out to the multiplexes. Like Creed III, look for this to score a series high opening with room to spare. I’m thinking mid 60s to possibly $70 million is achievable.
John Wick: Chapter 4 opening weekend prediction: $85.5 million (REVISED NUMBER)
The Best Picture lineup for the just aired Academy Awards was 20% sequel with Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water in contention. We also had Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery up in key contests. So is it crazy to think John Wick: Chapter 4 could find its way into the Oscar conversation a little less than a year from now? Yeah, it might be.
Or maybe not. The fourth heaping of ultra-violence starring Keanu Reeves and directed by Chad Stahelski stands at 89% on Rotten Tomatoes prior to its March 24th domestic bow. That exactly matches the scores of predecessors Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 – Parabellum and exceeds the original’s 86%.
Yet many of the reviews are calling #4 the best of the wild bunch. The nearly three hour opus is being specifically singled out for its production design and cinematography. I could certainly see Film Twitter mounting a campaign for this acclaimed franchise to finally get some love from the tech branches. It’s unlikely to occur, but not impossible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Zach Cregger’s Barbarian is really three movies in its 100 minutes and you won’t see two of them coming. You won’t find this Blu-Ray laying around at an Airbnb for your viewing enjoyment (I realize there’s probably not many Blu-Rays laying around anyway). Your viewing enjoyment may depend on your tolerance for gross out scares and if that’s up your alley, this offers some genuine surprises.
Tess (Georgina Campbell) pulls up to a bad Detroit neighborhood to stay at the aforementioned company’s property. She has a job interview the next morning and is shocked to find someone else trying to catch some shuteye. Keith (Bill Skarsgard) is just as confused until they discover the property has been double booked.
For a little while, we’re led to think this could be a meet cute heading down rom com territory. Not so much. It’s hard to forget that Mr. Skarsgard donned creepy makeup recently as Pennywise in the It parts. The couple is instead heading down to the basement where there’s plenty of dank discoveries to uncover.
This is about where spoilers come into play and I do suggest watching Barbarian cold. We do have Justin Long in the mix as a sitcom actor going through a Me Too moment and other cast members whose house appearances shall remain a secret.
I give credit to Cregger, a sitcom actor himself and comedian, for a screenplay that veers into unexpected places. It also tackles some dark subjects while keeping the primary objective in focus. That’s to provide a frightening stay at this setting that wouldn’t merit many stars. On that note, just how were the reviews from previous guests? This creation does merit a referral for horror fans.
The fall movie season kicks off in horrific fashion with Barbarian, Zach Cregger’s directorial debut which premiered at Comic-Con in July to solid buzz. Whether its festival reaction translates to positive box office numbers is questionable.
Georgina Campbell, Bill Skargard (who’s had huge success in the genre with It and its sequel), and Justin Long star in a pic whose plot is being kept rather secretive. Early word-of-mouth suggests horror fans might be best served by entering this one cold.
September is not looking overly encouraging for blockbuster possibilities. It is, however, filled with scary flicks. Barbarian starts the trend with Pearl out a week later and Smile arriving at month’s end. Barbarian needs that chatter from its screenings to seep into the mainstream and I’m not sure it has. One comp could be Malignant, which premiered on the same post Labor Day weekend last year. It made just over $5 million though it was simultaneously streaming on HBO Max.
This should benefit a little from being theatrical only. I’ll say Barbarian will be lucky to make close to double digits, but may to settle for $6-8 million.
Barbarian opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million
Nine Days premiered nine months ago at the Sundance Film Festival. It will be available for all viewers this January after Sony Pictures Classics snatched up the rights. The science fiction drama marks the directorial debut of Edson Oda with a cast featuring Winston Duke, Zazie Beetz, Benedict Wong, Tony Hale, and Bill Skarsgard. Executive produced by Spike Jonze, the pic has been praised by critics for its originality, the lead performance from Duke, and its screenplay which was penned by the director. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 86% currently.
Sony Pictures will need to a mount a major campaign in order for this to gain any traction with awards voters. I’m skeptical for now, but it’s not impossible that Original Screenplay could be in play if Sony plays their cards right. Bottom line: Nine Days could easily be ignored in the Oscar conversation, but it’s at least worth keeping an eye on. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
The Gothic thriller The Devil All the Time, based on the 2011 bestseller by Donald Ray Pollock, is in theater this weekend in limited fashion before a Netflix release this coming Wednesday. Directed by Antonio Campos, the pic boasts an impressive cast that includes Tom Holland, Bill Skarsgard, Riley Keough, Jason Clarke, Sebastian Stan, Haley Bennett, Mia Wasikowska, and Robert Pattinson (who’s everywhere at the moment with Tenet and The Batman trailer out).
Reviews out are of the mixed variety as Devil holds a 64% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Some critics have gone out of their way to praise the performances of Holland and Pattinson. The latter, in particular, seems likely to find an awards friendly role sooner than later with his impressive post Twilight output.
However, this is highly unlikely to be it. In addition to the several negative reviews, Netflix is simply too busy this season to make this film a priority. The streamer looks to have several legitimate contenders on their hands in the near future with Mank, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and Hillbilly Elegy – all of which have actors that they’ll campaign for. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
It bloats. That would be Chapter Two of the saga that was adapted from Stephen King’s novel to monstrous box office results in 2017. A rumination on childhood friendship and fears that happened to feature a demented clown (with a humdinger of a performance by Bill Skarsgard and his creepy eyes as Pennywise), it was easy to see why It cashed in. Set in the 1980s (when the book was released) as opposed to the 1950s, the pic had a retro vibe fitting the Stranger Things and Steven Spielberg mold. Featuring fine performances by its band of teens called The Losers, the scariest parts of It often involved what adults were capable of doing to the group as opposed to Pennywise in clown or other forms.
In Chapter Two, it’s The Losers who are the adults. They come together 27 years after the events of chapter one in the town of Derry, Maine. This was choreographed at the conclusion of It two years back, but the grownup Losers only have scant memories of warding off Pennywise in 1989. We as the audience remember it well, but it takes around an hour of the nearly three hour running time for nearly all of them to recall. And that’s a slog.
On the positive side, the casting here is impressive. James McAvoy is de facto leader Bill, now a successful horror author who can’t ever write a satisfactory ending to his works (something King himself is often accused of). In my It review, I speculated that Amy Adams could inhabit the part of Beverly, the lone female of the club who continues to suffer from physical abuse started by her demented father. Jessica Chastain got the role and she’s another obvious choice. The most memorable performances here, however, come from Bill Hader as Richie, now a standup comic and James Ransone as hypochondriac Eddie. They’re responsible for some much needed comic relief and occasional moments that are genuinely funny. And while Jay Ryan might not exactly physically resemble the younger overweight New Kids on the Block loving Ben (who still has a crush on Beverly), the casting club found a performer whose eyes match his youthful counterpart Jeremy Ray Taylor.
Of course, there’s also Skarsgard having a ball as Pennywise. It comes in many forms and in many situations. It comes at night. It comes during daytime. It comes as a creepy old lady who lives in Beverly’s old apartment. It comes as a giant spider. It comes as famous lumberjacks. It comes in ways that display decent CG and dodgy CG. It’s a mixed bag of appearances.
Chapter Two is overstuffed and overlong. It’s as if director Andy Muschietti and screenwriter Gary Dauberman (the team behind the first chapter) wanted to be as faithful as possible to King’s book and leave as little out as possible. A tightening of the screws might have been a wiser course of action. King himself (who cleverly cameos) has stated in interviews that the why of why monsters do what they do is fairly incidental. The time spent linking Pennywise to Native American rituals and the creature’s background feels just that. That Stephen King might be onto something.
The long continuation of this story does certainly feature a couple of spine tingling sequences, fine acting, and amusing bits. Unfortunately it does not represent a hefty portion of its 169 minutes and that’s why this chapter just can’t match the more tightly contained first one.
Two years ago, Andy Muschietti’s adaptation of the Stephen King novel It broke box office records in the horror genre and became an instant audience favorite. Yet it didn’t end up registering with awards voters in any fashion… not even for Pennywise’s creepy makeup job.
This weekend, the eagerly awaited sequel arrives and the review embargo has floated away. ChapterTwo holds a decent 79% Rotten Tomatoes score, but that’s beneath the 86% achieved by its predecessor. A consistent theme in much of the critical reaction is that many parts work, but that it’s also overlong and doesn’t quite measure up to chapter one.
If It couldn’t garner Oscar attention, don’t expect this to. I will make make one further prediction. Another common factor in the reviews is praise for Bill Hader’s performance and he’s said to be a scene stealer. Don’t be surprised to see some chatter and wishful thinking for a Supporting Actor nod that will never come to pass. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
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