The Phoenician Scheme Box Office Prediction

Wes Anderson’s latest The Phoenician Scheme, following its limited rollout in six venues this weekend, expands nationwide June 6th. Originally screened at Cannes earlier this month, Benicio del Toro and Mia Threapleton headline the the black comedy. Per usual with Mr. Anderson’s tales, the supporting cast is massive and includes Michael Cera, Riz Ahmed, Tom Hanks, Bryan Cranston, Mathieu Amalric, Richard Ayoade, Jeffrey Wright, Scarlett Johansson, Benedict Cumberbatch, Hope Davis, Rupert Friend, Bill Murray, Charlotte Gainsbourg, Willem Dafoe, and F. Murray Abraham.

Phoenician reviews are decent though not as effusive as those that greeted other works from the auteur. Rotten Tomatoes is at 77% with a 71 Metacritic. Anderson is certainly one of those filmmakers with a devoted following. His pictures aren’t going to make $100 million+, but they have their niche.

Predecessor Asteroid City from summer 2023 made $9 million for its expansion. I see no reason why Scheme wouldn’t gather about the same.

The Phoenician Scheme opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million

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Oscar Predictions: The Phoenician Scheme

Wes Anderson is back at Cannes with The Phoenician Scheme, his latest comedy sporting a gigantic cast opening stateside June 6th. Benicio del Toro and Mia Threapleton have the most significant roles with an ensemble also (deep breath) including Michael Cera, Riz Ahmed, Tom Hanks, Bryan Cranston, Mathieu Amalric, Richard Ayoade, Jeffrey Wright, Scarlett Johansson, Benedict Cumberbatch, Rupert Friend, Hope Davis, Bill Murray, Charlotte Gainsbourg, and Willem Dafoe.

We are more than a decade removed from The Grand Budapest Hotel which turned out to be Anderson’s most significant awards contender yet (nine Oscar nods with victories in Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Original Score, and Production Design). His two Phoenician predecessors generated minimal attention in their seasons with The French Dispatch up for Score at the Globes and Asteroid City blanked from the Academy and at the Globes.

Phoenician‘s reaction in France indicates this will follow in the footsteps of those recent titles and not Hotel. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 79% with Metacritic at 74. Even with the typical praise for Production Design and Score, I doubt this shows up anywhere at the Oscars and that includes the new Casting category. Depending on competition, del Toro and Threapleton (daughter of Kate Winslet) could be threats for noms in the Musical/Comedy races in their respective acting derbies. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Alto Knights Box Office Prediction

Robert De Niro pulls double duty as real-life mobsters Vito Genovese and Frank Costello in The Alto Knights on March 21st. The crime drama from director Barry Levinson rolls into approximately 2500 venues with Debra Messing, Cosmo Jarvis, Kathrine Narducci, and Michael Rispoli in the supporting cast. Nicholas Pileggi, who wrote the source material for De Niro’s classic GoodFellas, penned the screenplay.

Warner Bros isn’t putting much marketing muscle behind this. Originally slated for February of last year, this is Levinson’s first theatrical project since the 2015 Bill Murray flop Rock the Kasbah. He did direct his star in HBO’s The Wizard of Lies back in 2017. Though De Niro is back in his most known genre, I’ll say Alto struggles to even hit $5 million as I analyze this.

The Alto Knight opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million

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Oscar Predictions: Riff Raff

Dito Montiel directs the crime comedy Riff Raff, premiering this weekend from Roadside Attractions. Jennifer Coolidge, Ed Harris (pulling double duty with My Dead Friend Zoe out this frame), Gabrielle Union, Lewis Pullman, Pete Davidson, and Bill Murray make up the impressive cast.

It originally debuted at the Toronto Film Festival last fall to mixed notices. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 55% with 45 on Metacritic. This certainly isn’t an Academy play, but better reviews could’ve put this in contention at the Globes next year in the Musical or Comedy derbies. The so-so buzz eliminates that possibility. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time: Number 11 – Dan Aykroyd

Dan Aykroyd was SNL’s first all utility player who could subtly do it all on the legendary sketch comedy show. The youngest cast member at 23 when it premiered in 1975, he made his mark with impressions including President Jimmy Carter, former President Richard Nixon, Tom Snyder, and Julia Child in a famously bloody bit.

There’s iconic characters like Elwood Blues alongside John Belushi’s Jake for The Blues Brothers which spawned the program’s first spin-off movie (and arguably best). We have the Coneheads which became a less successful picture in 1993. Then there’s “Two Wild and Crazy Guys” with frequent host Steve Martin and creations like Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute and cheapskate toymaker Irwin Mainway. Weekend Update during Season 3 was memorably anchored by Aykroyd and Jane Curtin.

Aykroyd would, of course, eventually make classic 80s pics alongside fellow SNL alum like Trading Places with Eddie Murphy, Ghostbusters with Bill Murray, and Spies Like Us with Chevy Chase. His mark at 30 Rock was the solid foundation of his storied career. #10 will be up soon!

Dan Aykroyd

Years on the Show: 1975-79

The Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time: Number 13 – Gilda Radner

With Chevy Chase having clocked in at #14, we move to another SNL original cast member in 13th and that’s Gilda Radner. An Emmy winner for her work on the show, the Second City alum was an early breakout in 1975 with characters like Roseanne Roseannadanna, Emily Litella, Judy Miller, and Lisa Loopner (one half of The Nerds alongside Bill Murray).

She was also known for an impression of Barbara Walters (or Baba Wawa) and made us laugh and smile dancing alongside Steve Martin. With a mix of vulnerability and plain hilarity, she would influence many a Not Ready for Prime Time Player to follow. #12 will be up soon!

Gilda Radner

Years on the Show: 1975-80

The Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time: Number 14 – Chevy Chase

Coming from the National Lampoon Radio Hour like his costars John Belushi and Gilda Radner and his eventual replacement Bill Murray, Chevy Chase was the original breakout sensation on Saturday Night Live. He was the first person to say “Live from New York, It’s Saturday Night!”. The future star of comedy classics including Caddyshack, Vacation, and Fletch also was the initial anchor giving us the fake news on Weekend Update. And there’s that iconic Landshark sketch. And another with Richard Pryor. And his bumbling Gerald Ford which kickstarted 50 years of unforgettable POTUS impersonations.

With his opener “I’m Chevy Chase and you’re not”, it helped millions of viewers learn his name and brilliant deadpan delivery immediately. Chase’s quick rise to fame kept him on the show just a handful of episodes into season #2. Yet if it not for him, the Norms and Tinas, Colins and Michaels, Jimmys and Seths wouldn’t have followed. #13 will be up soon!

The Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time: Number 26 – Bill Murray

Bill Murray had big and clumsy shoes to fill when he joined SNL in 1977. The Second City performer was essentially brought in to replace Chevy Chase, the show’s first breakout star who left for movie stardom.

It didn’t happen immediately as evidenced by a sketch in which Murray apologized to viewers for not being funny. Eventually, of course, he would hit his stride with characters like Nick the Lounge Singer and nerdy Todd alongside then girlfriend Gilda Radner. Murray would also make his mark at the Weekend Update desk.

If this seems a little low for Murray, I would maintain that his most inspired work came on the big screen after his show duties. If this was a list of greatest movie careers after SNL, he would be at the top or darn close to it. #25 will be up soon!

Bill Murray

Years on the Show: 1977-80

The Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time: Number 46 – Jane Curtin

Saturday Night Live officially turns 49 years old today and Jason Reitman’s critically appreciated Saturday Night is out in wide release for the occasion. It recounts the 90 hectic minutes leading up to the iconic show’s premiere. Jane Curtin was there for it. She’s the first original Not Ready for Prime Time Player to make this list. As I wrote in my prelude to these posts, not all of them are included in the top 50 (Laraine Newman, Garrett Morris).

Curtin was more of the straight (wo)man in the program’s early years. She got to stretch every once in a while including as Prymaat Conehead alongside Dan Aykroyd in those bits. Yet it was as one half of the Weekend Update team with Aykroyd and then Bill Murray where she paved the way for future stars like Tina Fey and Amy Poehler. Some of her cast mates will be showcased later, but Curtin earns placement for her contributions. #45 will be up soon!

Jane Curtin

Years on the Show: 1975-1980

Oscar Predictions: The Friend

The Friend played Telluride and is about to hit Toronto and the dramedy has found some allies already. Based on the novel by Sigrid Nunez, the team known as Siegel & McGehee direct. They are known for indie pics such as The Deep End, What Maisie Knew, and Montana Story. Naomi Watts is a writer caring for her late mentor’s dog. Supporting work comes from Bill Murray (as said mentor), Sarah Pidgeon, Constance Wu, Ann Dowd, Owen Teague, and Carla Gugino. There’s also what’s said to be a terrific performance by Great Dane Bing as Apollo.

Several critics, while saying The Friend is formulaic, also say it often rises above similar doggie tales. Early buzz indicates it earns the tears of audience members. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100% with Metacritic at 70.

Still seeking domestic distribution, it remains to be seen whether this makes the 2024 cut. If so, Watts is getting plenty of applause. She’s a two-time nominee for 2003’s 21 Grams and 2012’s The Impossible. Becoming a contender isn’t an impossibility, but it is a stretch. There’s no Best Canine category so Bing doesn’t need his tux pressed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…