The 78th British Academy Film Awards (or BAFTAs) have occurred across the pond. What will be the ripple effect for the Oscars in two weeks? Let’s get into it!
Last weekend, the PGA/DGA/Critics Choice Awards troika rightfully vaulted Sean Baker’s Anora to frontrunner status at the Academy Awards. My feeling (shared by plenty of prognosticators) is that Anora would have a tougher time taking top prize at BAFTA. That turned out to be true, but it did nab an award that could shake up another major competition.
Edward Berger’s Conclave is your BAFTA Best Film and I correctly called that. It wins two years after the director’s All Quiet on the Western Front did the same. A very important reminder: Best Picture at the Oscars and Best Film at BAFTA have matched just twice in the past decade. For those thinking this vaults Conclave into winning status in two weeks, think again. If it can be named Best Ensemble at SAG next weekend, chances improve.
Brady Corbet is Best Director for The Brutalist (another correct call). This adds intrigue to the Academy’s directorial competition as Sean Baker won DGA last weekend for Anora. They should battle it out for Oscar.
Overall I went 17 for 24 in my projections. Before I get into the acting derbies and screenplay contests, let’s do a quick review on where I went right elsewhere. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl is the honoree for Animated Film while Emilia Pérez escaped its controversies to become Best Film Not in the English Language. The Brutalist took Cinematography and Original Score. Wicked is both your Costume Design and Production Design victor. Make Up & Hair went to The Substance. Conclave won Editing with Dune: Part Two emerging in Sound. Outstanding British Debut by a Writer, Director or Producer went to Kneecap with Conclave predictably taking Outstanding British Film.
Here’s where I went wrong in the down the line competitions. I went out on a limb with Better Man in Special Visual Effects and it was Dune: Part Two. In the Rising Star Competition, the Brits chose one of their own (David Jonsson) instead of Mikey Madison. Jonsson received plenty of complimentary notices in 2024 for Alien: Romulus. We are not done with Madison though.
In the newly created Children’s and Family Film race, it was Wallace & Gromit again and not my predicted The Wild Robot. And Anora aced Best Casting over Conclave. Finally, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story is your Best Documentary despite not being up at Oscar. I went with No Other Land which is considered the soft Academy favorite.
Now let’s get to our acting and writing showdowns. In maybe the biggest upset of all, Jesse Eisenberg won Original Screenplay for A Real Pain. I had Anora projected with The Brutalist as my runner-up. Truth be told, my second runner-up would’ve been The Substance so Pain managing this was truly unexpected. On the other hand, Conclave is the Adapted Screenplay winner which was expected.
Three of the four frontrunners in the acting races made English podium walks today and solidified their positions. That would be Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) as Best Actor and Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) in their respective supporting fields. For any of this trio to be denied a sweep, the SAG Awards would need to provide that disruption next weekend.
The other frontrunner after winning the Golden Globe and Critics Choice was Demi Moore in The Substance. Yet the BAFTAs went with Mikey Madison (Anora) and this sets up an unpredictable competition between them.
Bottom line: the BAFTAs made Best Actress and Director more intriguing while I wouldn’t read too much into the Conclave selection. Keep an eye on the blog for more speculation as we hurdle toward Oscar night.
Here’s the breakdown of movies that won BAFTAs:
4 Wins
The Brutalist, Conclave
2 Wins
Anora, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked
1 Win
Kneecap, The Substance, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story
