Tag: Beth de Araújo

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Director

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

We are not quite a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. I already posted my take in the acting fields and they can be found here:

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress
99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

That brings us to Best Director. When I did my first forecast in this race for the 98th ceremony, my projections yielded two of the eventual nominees: Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet). Eventual winner Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) were named in Other Possibilities. I had yet to mention Ryan Coogler (Sinners).

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system where the lineup for Cannes was revealed today.

This premiere post has Christopher Nolan back in the lineup three years after Oppenheimer dominated the 96th Academy Awards. His competitors include newcomers and former nominees like Martin McDonagh and Ryusuke Hamaguchi.

Here’s the first snapshot with Best Picture up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR DIRECTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

Cristian Mungiu, Fjord

Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

Other Possibilities:

Danny Boyle, Ink

Beth de Araújo, Josephine

Robert Eggers, Werwulf

Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger

Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

Oscar Predictions: Josephine

The Sundance Film Festival is underway this weekend for the final time in Park City before it moves to Boulder in 2027. This is also the first Sundance since the passing of its legendary founder Robert Redford. In particular, Sundance is a major indicator of the documentaries that will be in eventual Oscar contention. At the 2025 fest, all five just nominated docs played there. Also last year, BP nominee Train Dreams got its first exposure as did Rose Byrne’s nominated Best Actress turn in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.

You can expect a few Sundance related prediction posts to pop up in the coming days, but we’ll start with Josephine. The drama marks the second film for auteur Beth de Araújo (behind 2022’s Soft & Quiet) and it incorporates a traumatizing incident involving sexual violence that the filmmaker experienced at a young age. Gemma Chan, Channing Tatum, and Philip Ettinger lead the cast and early word-of-mouth is very complimentary to them.

Yet the loudest praise is going to eight-year-old Mason Reeves in her title role cinematic debut. The raves for Josephine and the girl playing her is already an indication of potential awards attention down the line. Reeves might be a shoo-in at the Critics Choice Awards for Best Young Actor/Actress. A distributor is likely to snatch up rights quickly. One question is whether the tough subject matter will be a hindrance. The first reviews out of Utah suggest it could be in the mix for Picture, some acting nods, and Original Screenplay with a deftly handled campaign. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…