Based on an acclaimed novella by Max Porter, The Things with Feathers casts Benedict Cumberbatch as a widower going through a unique grieving process. Dylan Southern directs with a supporting cast including Richard and Henry Boxall as his children, Eric Lampaert and David Thewlis.
Feathers was first screened way back in January at Sundance and also played in Berlin. Slated for a November 28th stateside bow, festival reaction was unimpressive. Despite an awards baity premise and source material, the Rotten Tomatoes rating is 53% with 51 on Metacritic. Those numbers won’t fly as we get deeper into the season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
One Warner Bros horror flick looks to transfer the #1 spot to another as The Conjuring: Last Rites haunts multiplexes this weekend. We also have Disney releasing their filmed version of the Broadway play Hamilton. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
My mid 50s projection for Last Rites gives it the best opening of the franchise, just outpacing 2018’s The Nun and toppling the $40 million and change starts that the first two proper Conjuring flicks scared up. As mentioned, it will easily replace the WB’s Weapons from its Labor Day weekend perch atop the charts.
Hamilton is a tricky one. It could easily outdo my high single digits forecast, but it’s hard to ignore that audiences have been able to view it on Disney+ for five years. No matter what, it should manage a runner-up debut.
Weapons should place third while 4-5 could be awfully close between Caught Stealing and Freakier Friday.
Here’s how I have it playing out:
1. The Conjuring: Last Rites
Predicted Gross: $58.2 million
2. Hamilton
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
3. Weapons
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
4. Caught Stealing
Predicted Gross: $4 million
5. Freakier Friday
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
Box Office Results (August 29-September 1)
In a rather quiet Labor Day frame, Weapons returned to #1 with KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event having completed its two-day engagement from the previous frame. Zach Cregger’s missing persons scare fest took in $13 million, falling short of my $15.9 million call over the four-day holiday. The four-week total is $135 million.
Jaws 50th Anniversary swam past my expectations with $11.3 million for second, more than doubling my $5.6 million prediction. Crowds clearly were down for revisiting the shark tale.
Austin Butler crime thriller Caught Stealing nabbed a so-so $9.5 million in third and that was more than my $6.3 million projection.
Freakier Friday was fourth with $8.7 million, in range with my $9.4 million estimate for a four-week tally of $82 million.
Comedic remake The Roses with Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman settled for fifth with $7.7 million, in line with my $7.9 million guesstimate.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps was sixth with $6.5 million (I said $6.1 million) for $266 million after six weeks.
Finally, The Toxic Avenger Unrated with Peter Dinklage didn’t crack the top 10 at $2.1 million. I went with $1.8 million.
Three newcomers and one summer classic celebrating a half century in existence will work hard to earn box office dollars this Labor Day weekend. We have comedy remake The Roses with Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman, Darren Aronofsky’s crime thriller Caught Stealing starring Austin Butler and Zoë Kravitz, Peter Dinklage in the splatter reboot The Toxic Avenger Unrated, and the 50th anniversary reissue of Steven Spielberg’s Jaws out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quartet here:
We’ll discuss Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event in the results section below. We know it won’t be #1 since the streamer put it out only as a two-day multiplex event on Saturday and Sunday this past weekend.
That means Weapons should return to the top spot as I don’t see the fresh foursome challenging it. The acclaimed horror flick should remain in the teens as holdovers usually have meager declines or even slight increases over the Friday to Monday of Labor Day weekend compared to the previous weekend.
The Roses could manage the best start of the new titles though I have it slightly behind the fourth weekend of Freakier Friday.
Caught Stealing might be stuck in fourth with The Fantastic Four: First Steps just behind in fifth and the Jaws reissue in sixth.
As for Toxic, my $1.8 million guesstimate puts it far down the charts.
The only placement I’m confident in is Weapons in 1st while the others jockey for position. Keep in mind that these estimates are made for the four-day holiday and here’s how I envision the top six:
1. Weapons
Predicted Gross: $15.9 million
2. Freakier Friday
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
3. The Roses
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
4. Caught Stealing
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
6. Jaws 50th Anniversary
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
Box Office Results (August 22-24)
After two months plus on the streaming service, Netflix made an unconventional move by releasing a sing-along version of their massive hit KPop Demon Hunters on Saturday and Sunday. They were conventional in not officially reporting its numbers. However, estimates put it at $19.2 million and that’s ahead of my $13.8 million call and easily strong enough for 1st place. With an over $11k plus per screen average, kids had no trouble getting their folks to bring them out. The specialized engagement is only for the aforementioned two days.
Weapons was second with $15.4 million, just under my $16.1 million projection. Zach Cregger’s disappearance tale has amassed $115 million in three weeks.
Freakier Friday was third with $8.8 million, on pace with my $8.7 million forecast. The Disney sequel has taken in $70 million after three weeks.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps, in week five, was fourth with $6 million (I said $5.8 million) for $257 million thus far.
The Bad Guys 2 rounded out the top five with $5.1 million, in line with my $5.2 million call for $66 million in four weeks.
Action sequel Nobody 2 tumbled 60% in its sophomore outing with $3.7 million. I was a bit more generous at $4.8 million. The tally is a mere $16 million.
Finally, Ethan Coen’s noirish comedy Honey Don’t! opened in 8th with $3 million. That’s nothing to brag about, but it did outshine my $1.8 million prediction.
Critics are not generally not showering The Roses with praise ahead of its release over Labor Day weekend. Remaking Danny DeVito’s 1989 dark comedy (itself based on a 1981 novel), Jay Roach directs Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman as feuding spouses. Costars include Andy Samberg, Kate McKinnon, and Allison Janney.
Plenty of reviews say the leads elevate the material. However, Rotten Tomatoes stands at 64% with Metacritic at 59. That’s certainly in the average range and should put it outside of Oscar consideration. I wouldn’t discount the Golden Globes. That’s where the original Roses scored noms in Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical and in Actor and Actress in the same genre for Michael Douglas and Kathleen Turner. Fun fact: it lost all three to Driving Miss Daisy and its headliners Morgan Freeman and Jessica Tandy.
Depending on the level of competition, Cumberbatch and (especially) Colman could sneak into their Globe competitions. Best Motion Picture might be out of reach. My Oscar (and in this case, Globe) prediction posts will continue…
Remaking Danny DeVito’s dark comedy The War of the Roses 36 years after its release, Jay Roach (the Austin Powers trilogy, Meet the Parents, Meet the Fockers) directs The Roses. Out August 29th, Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman headline as the divorcing title couple played by Michael Douglas and Kathleen Turner in 1989. Andy Samberg, Kate McKinnon, and Allison Janney costar.
The Searchlight release faces a thorny release date in the waning summer dog days. Early social word-of-mouth is encouraging. It stands a decent shot at having the highest debut over Labor Day weekend over Caught Stealing and the re-release of Jaws for its 50th anniversary.
That still might only mean higher single digits over its four-day holiday premiere.
The Roses opening weekend prediction: $7.9 million (Friday to Monday projection)
Wes Anderson’s latest The Phoenician Scheme, following its limited rollout in six venues this weekend, expands nationwide June 6th. Originally screened at Cannes earlier this month, Benicio del Toro and Mia Threapleton headline the the black comedy. Per usual with Mr. Anderson’s tales, the supporting cast is massive and includes Michael Cera, Riz Ahmed, Tom Hanks, Bryan Cranston, Mathieu Amalric, Richard Ayoade, Jeffrey Wright, Scarlett Johansson, Benedict Cumberbatch, Hope Davis, Rupert Friend, Bill Murray, Charlotte Gainsbourg, Willem Dafoe, and F. Murray Abraham.
Phoenician reviews are decent though not as effusive as those that greeted other works from the auteur. Rotten Tomatoes is at 77% with a 71 Metacritic. Anderson is certainly one of those filmmakers with a devoted following. His pictures aren’t going to make $100 million+, but they have their niche.
Predecessor Asteroid City from summer 2023 made $9 million for its expansion. I see no reason why Scheme wouldn’t gather about the same.
The Phoenician Scheme opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million
Wes Anderson is back at Cannes with The Phoenician Scheme, his latest comedy sporting a gigantic cast opening stateside June 6th. Benicio del Toro and Mia Threapleton have the most significant roles with an ensemble also (deep breath) including Michael Cera, Riz Ahmed, Tom Hanks, Bryan Cranston, Mathieu Amalric, Richard Ayoade, Jeffrey Wright, Scarlett Johansson, Benedict Cumberbatch, Rupert Friend, Hope Davis, Bill Murray, Charlotte Gainsbourg, and Willem Dafoe.
We are more than a decade removed from The Grand Budapest Hotel which turned out to be Anderson’s most significant awards contender yet (nine Oscar nods with victories in Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Original Score, and Production Design). His two Phoenician predecessors generated minimal attention in their seasons with The French Dispatch up for Score at the Globes and Asteroid City blanked from the Academy and at the Globes.
Phoenician‘s reaction in France indicates this will follow in the footsteps of those recent titles and not Hotel. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 79% with Metacritic at 74. Even with the typical praise for Production Design and Score, I doubt this shows up anywhere at the Oscars and that includes the new Casting category. Depending on competition, del Toro and Threapleton (daughter of Kate Winslet) could be threats for noms in the Musical/Comedy races in their respective acting derbies. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
The second post in this series is Best Supporting Actor. If you missed my write-up for Best Actress, you can access it here:
Unlike some of the other categories… Best Picture for example… I do believe there’s a legit frontrunner in Supporting Actor and that’s Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. He has received a quartet of significant Oscar precursor nominations thus far: the Golden Globe, the BAFTA long list, SAG, and Critics Choice. That’s in addition to a slew of critics group prizes. Most significantly, he won the Golden Globe last week. The only potential drawback to a victory is that A Real Pain is a question mark for Best Picture inclusion. Since the Academy’s BP nominees expanded to more than five (and now a set 10) starting in 2009, 14 of the 15 Supporting Actor recipients came from films nominated in the biggest race. The only exception is 2011 with Christopher Plummer from Beginners. If A Real Pain gets into the BP derby, it’ll be much simpler to project Culkin as the victor. If not, that makes him more of a soft leader in the contest.
There are two other performers with the aforementioned precursors to their credit – Yura Borisov in Anora and Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown. At this juncture, it would be bold to leave either of them off the ballot. Both come from surefire BP hopefuls.
So does Guy Pearce of The Brutalist. The veteran actor seeks his first nomination. I’ve had him consistently ranked 2nd behind Culkin for weeks. His SAG omission was a surprise, but he still looks relatively safe for inclusion.
That leaves us with one spot left to fill. Before we consider that, let’s remember a time when these gentlemen had shots for the 97th Academy Awards. In some cases, the movies didn’t turn out to be Oscar contenders or their roles weren’t substantial enough to make the cut. I speak of Tom Hardy or Michael Shannon from The Bikeriders, Benedict Cumberbatch in The Book of Clarence, Brendan Gleeson in Joker: Folie à Deux, and Giancarlo Esposito from Megalopolis.
There’s a next level up of performances. It might not be totally impossible for them to get in, but there’s been no evidence precursor wise to realistically believe they’re a threat. This list includes Josh O’Connor from Challengers, Peter Sarsgaard and John Magaro from September 5 and Bill Skarsgård and Willem Dafoe in Nosferatu, and Drew Starkey in Queer. Same goes for Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside), Adam Pearson (A Different Man), and Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson). Chris Hemsworth drew raves for Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, but he hasn’t shown up anywhere. Same story for Dune: Part Two supporting players Javier Bardem and Austin Butler. And John Lithgow (Conclave) and Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora) are likely to cede the spotlight to their costars.
With one spot remaining, I have five contenders worthy of chatter: Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Stanley Tucci (Conclave), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?
Speaking of costars, it sure seemed like Wicked‘s Jonathan Bailey would be on the outside looking in while his popular cast mates Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande would get noms. Yet his unexpected SAG inclusion this week puts him in the mix. Nevertheless I have him 5th out of these 5 possibilities.
Clarence Maclin took his real life experience behind bars and became a critical darling playing himself in Sing Sing. He made the BAFTA long list and Critics Choice ballot but missed SAG and the Globes. Oscar may still remember him, but he’s currently 3rd out of these 5 possibilities.
Jeremy Strong’s work as Roy Cohn in The Apprentice has snagged BAFTA long list, the Globes, and SAG and only missed Critics Choice. An excellent argument can be made for Culkin’s Succession costar. At the moment, I have him 2nd of the 5 possibilities which puts him just outside. I could see that changing when I make final picks on Wednesday.
Stanley Tucci is a dark horse for Conclave. No SAG, Globe, or Critics Choice. Just the BAFTA long list and I don’t have him predicted to make their final five. I could envision a scenario where he comes along for the ride at Oscar if they really love Conclave. He’s 4th out of these 5 possibilities.
Denzel Washington’s turn in Gladiator II was correctly called the sequel’s brightest spot. He has the BAFTA long list, Globe, and Critics Choice locked down. SAG voters, on the other hand, surprisingly ignored him. That makes a 10th acting Oscar nomination questionable. I currently have him 1st out of these 5 possibilities and that gets him in. This is mainly predicated on the fact that he’s Denzel Washington and that has worked before (see his 2017 nomination for Roman J. Israel, Esq.).
There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Supporting Actor for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a dive into Supporting Actress up next!
Mixing comedy and drama with the Biblical epic genre, The Book of Clarence opens January 12th over the long MLK frame. This is Jeymes Samuel’s sophomore directorial feature after 2021’s The Harder They Fall. LaKeith Stanfield leads a sprawling cast that includes Omar Sy, RJ Cyler, Anna Diop, David Oyelowo, Micheal Ward, Alfre Woodard, Teyana Taylor, Caleb McLaughlin, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, James McAvoy, and Benedict Cumberbatch.
The unique mashup was originally slated for September 2023 before a delay to January. It was first unveiled at the London Film Festival and holds an encouraging 94% RT score.
Despite the positive reviews, this is not your typical faith-based effort that might attract a significant religious crowd. The pushback to mid-January meant Clarence forewent an awards campaign that could’ve helped with awareness.
Over the Friday to Monday portion of the MLK weekend, this probably won’t hit $10 million. Mid single digits is more likely.
The Book of Clarence opening weekend prediction: $5.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
The unconventional Biblical epic The Book of Clarence is the sophomore feature from Jeymes Samuel, who earned acclaim for his debut The Harder They Fall in 2021. It premiered at the London Film Festival prior to its planned January 12th opening stateside. LaKeith Stanfield, Omar Sy, Anna Diop, RJ Cyler, David Oyelowo, Micheal Ward, Alfre Woodard, Teyana Taylor, Caleb McLaughlin, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, James McAvoy, and Benedict Cumberbatch are included in the sprawling cast.
Originally slated for September of this year, I assumed the mid-January push included an awards qualifying run before the ball drops. That does not appear to be the case as Book should be in contention for the 97th Academy Awards.
Reviews are mostly praising its unique take on the genre with a current 91% Rotten Tomatoes score. However, while Stanfield and some of the tech work is being singled out, this is a long shot to be an Oscar player. So was the director’s first pic and it came up empty handed at the 94th ceremony. And frankly, the January release date indicates that Sony might not make a major push for it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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