This Day in Movie History: February 18

20 years ago Today in Movie History – February 18 – Ben Stiller made his directorial debut with the now Gen X classic Reality Bites. The romantic comedy/drama starring Winona Ryder helped establish not only Stiller, but also Ethan Hawke and Janeane Garafalo as rising stars. Its soundtrack was also a hit and include the single “Stay” by Lisa Loeb. Stiller could onto direct The Cable Guy, Zoolander, Tropic Thunder, and The Secret Life of Walter Mitty.

As for birthdays – John Travolta is 60 today. After becoming known to TV viewers from “Welcome Back, Kotter”, he very successfully transitioned into film with late 70s megahits Saturday Night Fever and Grease and Urban Cowboy in 1980. After some lean years in which only his Look Who’s Talking flicks did well, he had one of the most notable comebacks in film history with 1994’s Pulp Fiction. Since then he’s starred in numerous commercial and critical hits including Get Shorty, Broken Arrow, Phenomenon, Michael, Face/Off, Primary Colors, and Swordfish. He’s had some flops too – particularly the disastrous Battlefield Earth.

Matt Dillon is 50 today. He broke out in the early 80s in such pictures as My Bodyguard, Rumble Fish, The Outsiders, and The Flamingo Kid. He had a major critical hit in Gus Van Sant’s 1989 indie pic Drugstore Cowboy and a big comedic breakout in the smash There’s Something About Mary. Other notable movies include Singles, To Die For, Beautiful Girls, Wild Things, and Crash.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between them:

John Travolta was in Get Shorty with Gene Hackman

Gene Hackman was in Target with Matt Dillon

And that’s today – February 18 – in Movie History!

This Day in Movie History: January 16

10 years ago Today in Movie History – January 16 – marked the release of Along Came Polly, the romantic comedy headlined by Ben Stilller and Jennifer Aniston. The pic would debut to a terrific $27.7 million in its opening weekend, ending the month-long reign of The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. With a stellar supporting cast that included Philip Seymour Hoffman, Alec Baldwin, and a sight impaired ferret, Polly‘s overall domestic haul would eventually stand at $88 million.

Today marks the 66th birthday of director John Carpenter. He is responsible for what I believe to be the greatest slasher flick ever – 1978′ Halloween. There’s also a trio of genre classics starring Kurt Russell – Escape from New York, The Thing, and Big Trouble in Little China. Other notables features: Assault on Precinct 13, The Fog, Christine, Starman, and They Live.

January 16th would have marked the 35th birthday of Aaliyah. The R&B singer was certainly known more for her musical career, but she was beginning to branch out to film with roles in Romeo Must Die with Jet Li and Queen of the Damned. Aaliyah was tragically killed in a plane crash in 2001.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two:

John Carpenter directed Kurt Russell in Escape from New York

Kurt Russell was in Tango&Cash with Sylvester Stallone

Sylvester Stallone was in The Expendables with Jet Li

Jet Li was in Romeo Must Die with Aaliyah

And that’s today – January 16th – in Movie History!

Box Office Results: Christmas 2013 Weekend

There was a whole bunch of new movies that opened Christmas Day, but numbers 1-4 were occupied by holdovers. The Wolf of Wall Street was the top newcomer while The Secret Life of Walter Mitty had a just OK opening and 47 Ronin, Grudge Match, and Justin Bieber’s Believe disappointed.

For the third weekend in a row, it was The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug at the top spot with $29.8 million – above my $25.7M estimate. The middle chapter in Peter Jackson’s Tolkien trilogy has earned $190 million in its three weeks of release so far.

Disney’s Frozen was close behind with $28.8 million, surpassing my $22.1M projection. The animated feature has grossed an impressive $248 million so far and should go north of $300 million when all is said and done.

Ron Burgundy and company were third with Anchorman: The Legend Continues earning $20.1 million in weekend #2, right in line with my $19.6M estimate. Anchorman has made $83.6 million so far, nearly matching the entire domestic gross of the original.

David O. Russell’s awards contender American Hustle was fourth with $19.5 million – beyond my $14.9M projection. Hustle has grossed $60 million in two weeks and is very likely to cross the century mark at some point.

It was Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street taking honors as top newbie. The three hour sex and drugs fest with Leo DiCaprio made $18.5 million over the Friday-to-Sunday portion of the weekend and $34.3 million since its Wednesday debut. While this is below my respective estimates of $25.4M and $44.2M, this is still a solid opening. Where Wolf could soon falter is with its C Cinemascore average. Audiences are clearly not liking what they’re seeing and there could be rather substantial drop-offs in future weekends.

Saving Mr. Banks with Emma Thompson and Tom Hanks had a big jump in its second weekend with $14 million for sixth, above my $10.6M estimate. It’s earned $37.8M in two weeks.

Ben Stiller’s comedic drama The Secret Life of Walter Mitty was seventh with $13 million over Friday-to-Sunday and $25.5 million since the Wednesday start, outpacing my projections of $11.7M and $19.3M. This opening could best be described as middle of the pack and it’ll be interesting to see how it holds up over the next couple of weekends.

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire was eighth with $10.2 million, above my $7.7M projection. Fire has made $391 million since its November opening, currently sits at #18 for all-time domestic grossers, and still looks to top Iron Man 3 as 2013’s biggest hit.

The martial arts flick with Keanu Reeves 47 Ronin opened at ninth with $9.8 million over Friday-to-Sunday and $20.5 million since Wednesday. It earned under my predicted three-day estimated (I said $11.4M) but over my five-day estimate ($17.8M). Look for it to fade fast.

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas rounded out the Top Ten with $7.4 million (I didn’t predict it would be in the top ten).

This left the Sylvester Stallone/Robert De Niro comedy Grudge Match at #11 with a very poor opening well below my expectations. Match grossed $7.3 million from Friday-to-Sunday and $13.4 million since Wednesday. I thought it would do much better and predicted $13.9M for the three-day and $24.5M for the five-day. Oops. This is Stallone’s third bomb of the year after Bullet to the Head and Escape Plan.

Finally, Beliebers totally failed to turn out for his documentary Believe. It sputtered at #14 with $2 million from Friday-to-Sunday and $4.2 million since the Wednesday start. I predicted it would do $5.8M for the three-day and $10.3 million for the five. Oops again.

Whew. And there’s your Christmas weekend box office results! Be sure to check the blog later today for my prediction next weekend’s only newcomer, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones.

Box Office Predictions: Christmas Weekend 2013

It’s the most wonderful time of the year and, at multiplexes, by far the most crowded time of the year! On Christmas Day, five pictures enter an already crowded marketplace. They are: Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street, the boxing comedy Grudge Match with Sylvester Stallone and Robert De Niro, Ben Stiller’s fantasy drama The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, martial arts flick 47 Ronin with Keanu Reeves, and the Justin Bieber documentary Believe. You can read my individual posts on all five at the following links:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/the-wolf-of-wall-street-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/grudge-match-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/the-secret-life-of-walter-mitty-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/47-ronin-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/justin-bieber-believe-box-office-prediction/

By my estimates there will be nine – yes, nine – movies that gross double digits over the weekend. And there may well be a fierce battle for #1. In this same holiday weekend last year, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey fell only 13% in its third weekend and I expect current #1 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug to fall no further than 20%. This should put it in a neck and neck race with my prediction for Wolf of Wall Street.

Disney’s Frozen stands an excellent chance of gaining audience from last weekend and it too has an outside shot at the top spot. Another title I expect to post gains: Disney’s Saving Mr. Banks which had a rather middling opening this past weekend at $9.3 million but should benefit from positive word of mouth.

Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues had a solid opening ($40 million over five days), but it was at the lesser end of expectations. Still, the holiday time frame should prevent it from suffering a large decline. The same can be said for American Hustle, which started strong out of the gate last weekend with $19.1 million.

One thing is for sure: the film calendar doesn’t get more crowded than this. After that, many things are highly uncertain but here’s my best guesses for the Christmas 2013 Top Ten:

1. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Predicted Gross: $25.7 million (representing a drop of 18%)

2. The Wolf of Wall Street

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million ($44.2 million predicted for five-day opening)

3. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $22.1 million (representing an increase of 13%)

4. Anchorman: The Legend Continues

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (representing a drop of 26%)

5. American Hustle

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 22%)

6. Grudge Match

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million ($24.5 million predicted for five-day opening)

7. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million ($19.3 million predicted for five-day opening)

8. 47 Ronin

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million ($17.8 million predicted for five-day opening)

9. Saving Mr. Banks

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing an increase of 15%)

10. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)

These predictions would leave Justin Bieber’s Believe out of the top ten and likely in the #12 slot behind the second weekend of Walking with Dinosaurs.

And there you have it! My predictions for Christmas 2013. Of course, I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page throughout the week with final results Sunday. And have yourself a Merry little Christmas, my friends!

 

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty Box Office Prediction

One of the big question marks entering into the crowded Christmas holiday season is how The Secret Life of Walter Mitty will perform at the box office.

Ben Stiller directs and stars in the fantasy themed drama, which is loosely based on a 1947 Danny Kaye picture of the same name. Walter Mitty has been in development for nearly two decades. During that time period, various directors and actors were attached to the project including Steven Spielberg, Ron Howard, Gore Verbinski, Jim Carrey, Owen Wilson, Mike Myers, and Sacha Baron Cohen. Eventually it turned into a vehicle for Mr. Stiller, making his first directorial effort since 2008’s Tropic Thunder. Kristin Wiig and Sean Penn are among the costars.

At one time, Mitty was seen as a potential awards contender but the reviews have ended that prospect. The pic has generated mixed reviews and stands at a troubling 42% on Rotten Tomatoes. As has become a theme in my Christmas box office predictions, the high amount of competition is a factor in my estimate. This picture is going for an adult audience and there’s The Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle out there. Those seeking a film with comedic elements may look to Anchorman 2 or Grudge Match. There’s also Saving Mr. Banks, which I anticipate will perform well in its second weekend after a rather soft debut. This all leads to me to believe that Mitty, coupled with its middling reviews, could get somewhat lost in the holiday shuffle.

I’m not convinced the pic’s marketing campaign has been successful in drawing significant audience interest for it. Mitty may struggle to reach $20 million over the five-day holiday time period.

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty box office prediction: $11.7 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $19.3 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my prediction on The Wolf of Wall Street, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/the-wolf-of-wall-street-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Grudge Match, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/grudge-match-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on 47 Ronin, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/47-ronin-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Justin Bieber’s Believe, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/justin-bieber-believe-box-office-prediction/

This Day in Movie History: December 22

Apparently December 22nd in Movie History could be called Ben Stiller Day as the actor has had a trio of titles debut on the day over the past decade.

For starters, 2004 brought us the sequel Meet the Fockers, which was a smash hit grossing $279 million domestically. It remains Stiller’s highest earning picture of all time.

Two years later would come Stiller’s second largest domestic grosser Night at the Museum. The family friendly pic racked up a $250 million domestic gross and spawned a sequel with another on the way in 2014.

Finally, December 22, 2010 brought Little Fockers, where the franchise seemed to run out of steam. Though it made a respectable $148 million – that’s a far cry from its 2004 predecessor.

Stiller’s movies are no stranger to the Christmas season (clearly) and this year is no exception with The Secret Life of Walter Mitty opening on Christmas Day.

As for celebrity birthdays, we have two characters actors: Hector Elizondo turns 77. You may know him for the original The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 or Beaches or Pretty Woman. He’s a particular favorite of director Garry Marshall.

And Ralph Fiennes turns 51. He first captured the attention of audiences with his Oscar nominated supporting role as a Nazi soldier in Schindler’s List. Since then he’s appeared in everything from Quiz Show to The English Patient to Red Dragon to, of course, Lord Voldemort in the Harry Potter franchise.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two actors:

Hector Elizondo was in Beverly Hills Cop III with Eddie Murphy

Eddie Murphy was with (yep) Ben Stiller in Tower Heist

Ben Stiller was in Along Came Polly with Phillip Seymour Hoffman

Phillip Seymour Hoffman was in Red Dragon with Ralph Fiennes

And that’s today – December 22 – in Movie History!

Oscar History: 2001

As far as film history, the year 2001 will most be remembered for the first installments of two billion dollar franchises, The Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter. Other than that, not much will be remembered about the year. It was an exceptionally weak year for movies.

This was reflected in a relatively unimpressive group of Best Picture nominees. Ron Howard’s good but not great A Beautiful Mind would take top prize against Robert Altman’s Gosford Park, Todd Field’s In the Bedroom, and Baz Luhrmann’s Moulin Rouge. The other nominee: Peter Jackson’s Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, which began a three-year streak of the franchise’s entry being nominated.

I’ve always felt Fellowship was the best of the trilogy and I certainly would’ve had no problem with it winning over Mind. The Academy decided against some edgier material, such as David Lynch’s critically lauded Mulholland Drive and Chris Nolan’s twisty thriller Memento.

Ron Howard took Best Director over Altman and Jackson. Lynch would be nominated here for Mulholland, as well as Ridley Scott for Black Hawk Down. Field and Luhrmann were the two auteurs whose Picture was nominated left out. Certainly, I would’ve reserved a slot for Nolan for his work in Memento.

Denzel Washington would earn his first Best Actor prize for Training Day (he won Supporting Actor for Glory in 1989). Other nominees: previous year’s winner Russell Crowe for Mind, Sean Penn for I Am Sam, Will Smith as Ali, and Tom Wilkinson for In the Bedroom.

I would have considered Johnny Depp for his performance in Blow or Billy Bob Thornton in Monster’s Ball. Keeping with the Memento kick, how about Guy Pearce for his challenging lead role? And if you’ve read my previous Oscar History posts, you’ll notice I usually advocate for comedic performances, which the Academy typically ignores. So how about a shout-out to Ben Stiller for his hilarious turn as Derek Zoolander?

Oscar history would be made as Halle Berry became the first African-American to win Best Actress for Monster’s Ball. It would also be the first year where both the Actor and Actress prizes went to African-Americans. Other nominees: Judi Dench in Iris, Nicole Kidman in Moulin Rouge, Sissy Spacek for In the Bedroom, and Renee Zellwegger for Bridget Jones Diary. Other performances worthy of consideration: Naomi Watts in Mulholland Drive and Audrey Tautou in Amelie.

Jim Broadbent was a surprise Supporting Actor winner for Iris, beating out favorites Ben Kingsley in Sexy Beast and Ian McKellen in Lord of the Rings. Other nominees: Ethan Hawke for Training Day and Jon Voight in Ali.

Steve Buscemi in Ghost World and Gene Hackman in The Royal Tenenbaums were worthy nominees. And here’s a totally outside-the-box selection from me: Bruce Davison’s wonderful performance as Kirsten Dunst’s dad in the romantic drama Crazy/Beautiful, a greatly underrated film.

Jennifer Connelly would win Supporting Actress for A Beautiful Mind. Other nominees: Helen Mirren and Maggie Smith (both for Gosford Park), Marisa Tomei for In the Bedroom, and Kate Winslet for Iris.

I probably would have found room for Cameron Diaz’s effective performance as Tom Cruise’s jilted lover in Vanilla Sky.

So, all in all, other than some historical Actor and Actress winners, 2001 was a pretty blah year for the Academy. A Beautiful Mind is a solid flick, but definitely one of the least memorable Best Picture winners of recent years, as I see it.