Tag: Ben Fountain

Billy Lynn’s Long Oscar Plummet

 

Blogger’s Update (11/21): Final box office numbers for the film put it at just a $901,000 opening, adding more insult to injury.

When I began writing my Oscar Watch posts several weeks ago, the general consensus was this: Damien Chazelle’s La La Land (based on its festival screenings) was the front runner for Best Picture. It still is. Furthermore, there was a trio of unseen contenders to upset that notion: Martin Scorsese’s Silence, Denzel Washington’s Fences, and Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk.

Silence has still yet to land any eyeballs on it and remains a mystery. Fences has held industry screenings and established itself as a player in Picture and several other races. Yet for Billy, the narrative has gone in a significantly different direction.

The war drama, based on a bestseller by Ben Fountain, looked to be a serious awards force on paper. After all, Lee has won the Best Director statue twice for 2005’s Brokeback Mountain and 2012’s Life of Pi. Both of those films were nominated for the grand prize but came up short. Two of his other efforts – 1995’s Sense and Sensibility and 2000’s Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon also nabbed Pic nods. Walk features an eclectic cast surrounding unknown Joe Alwyn in the title role that includes Kristen Stewart, Steve Martin, Vin Diesel, Chris Tucker, and Garrett Hedlund.

And it was being touted as a potential visual marvel as Lee and his effects crew were shooting it at 120 frames per second (think super duper HD). Then something happened on the march to Academy glory… people actually saw it.

The result? Many critics were not kind to it (it’s at just 41% on Rotten Tomatoes). Following its first festival exposure in New York, the Oscar fortunes took a tumble. Yet even after that, I still managed to keep it in my top 20 possibilities for a Picture nomination until yesterday. Why? On the chance that audiences would respond positively enough to it to keep it viable.

Well… that viability just took a nose dive this afternoon. Walk opened wide today and forecasts for the weekend have it grossing just $2-$3 million dollars. Let me translate: it’s bombing very, very badly.

One month ago, before anyone had seen it, Billy Lynn looked like it could receive multiple nominations come Oscar time. As of today, the highest likelihood is that it will walk away with zero.

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk Box Office Prediction

Ang Lee’s war drama Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk makes its way to theaters next weekend in wide release and expectations for it have been tampered down a bit. The film, based on a bestseller by Ben Fountain, had been looked at as a major awards contender for the bulk of 2016. After all, Lee has won the Best Director prize at the Oscars twice (for Brokeback Mountain and Life of Pi) and it just looked the kind of picture that the Academy might take a liking to. Newcomer Joe Alwyn stars in the title role alongside a stellar supporting cast that includes Kristen Stewart, Chris Tucker, Garrett Hedlund, Vin Diesel, and Steve Martin.

Walk has also received significant publicity to the manner in which it was shot at 120 frames per second (translate that to very high definition). Yet something unexpected happened when this screened at the New York Film Festival nearly a month ago. Critics were sharply divided as to both its dramatic and visual quality. In fact, it stands at just 50% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Any chances of it being an Oscar force pretty much fell along the wayside.

So where does that leave its box office prospects? Quite simply, shakier than before the buzz unfolded. If this had the aura of an Academy hopeful, it could certainly boost its grosses. Then there’s even the matter of another more critically lauded war drama having opened just two weeks prior – Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge.

The film is reportedly rolling out on a low 800 screens which would limits its prospects. Add all that up and I believe Halftime will see a debut below $10 million for just a so-so start.

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk opening weekend prediction: $9.2 million

For my Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/fantastic-beasts-and-where-to-find-them-box-office-prediction/

For my Bleed for This prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/10/bleed-for-this-box-office-prediction/

For my The Edge of Seventeen prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/the-edge-of-seventeen-box-office-prediction/

 

Oscar Watch: Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

One of the largest pieces of the Oscar puzzle came into sharper focus tonight as Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk premiered at the New York Film Festival. For months, the film has rightfully been looked at as a massive awards contender. After all, the director has won two Best Director awards for Brokeback Mountain and Life of Pi.

Based on its initial screening, it appears Walk has taken a significant hit. Early critical reaction is quite mixed and several reviews have been negative. I’ve had this pegged at between 2-5 for the last several weeks in terms of getting a Best Picture nod. I’ve also included Lee in the top 5 every week in terms of his nomination. At various junctures, I’ve also predicted Joe Alwyn (Actor), Steve Martin (Supporting Actor), Kristen Stewart (Supporting Actress), and Adapted Screenplay. Based on tonight’s buzz, that’s likely to change come Thursday when I make my next round of predictions.

Billy could still be a player in technical categories like Visual Effects and the Sound races. Yet the sound heard tonight in the Big Apple was a perceived Oscar heavyweight losing serious luster.