Taylor Swift will not be performing an Oscar nominated track at this April’s ceremony. Sonic the Hedgehog will not be the Oscar nominated Sonic the Hedgehog. Sacha Baron Cohen’s makeup team from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm who transformed him into former President Donald Trump will not see their work recognized.
These are some of the headlines from today’s unveiling of shortlists in six categories covering feature films from the Academy. On the positive side for its respective studios, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey could contend in at least three races. A documentary about refugees from Chechnya is a Visual Effects hopeful. And Borat is still on the board for his song “Wuhan Flu”. There were mixed results from the announcements for features such as Hillbilly Elegy, The Invisible Man, and The United States vs. Billie Holiday.
Let’s break this all down and what it means for my weekly predictions, shall we?
Best Documentary Feature
Fifteen films were shortlisted today as follows:
76 Days
All In: The Fight for Democracy
Boys State
Collective
Crip Camp
Dick Johnson Is Dead
Gunda
MLK/FBI
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher
Notturno
The Painter and the Thief
Time
The Truffle Hunters
Welcome to Chechnya
Analysis:
There are two docs I had in my top ten that missed the cut: The Dissident, which I had ranked all the way up in second and Totally Under Control, which I had sixth. This is a pretty open race in 2020 and I had Time in first position two days ago. All In and Dick Johnson are sturdy contenders as well.
Best International Feature Film
Fifteen films were shortlisted today as follows:
Another Round
Better Days
Charlatan
Collective
Dear Comrades!
Hope
I’m No Longer Here
La Llorona
The Man Who Sold His Skin
The Mole Agent
Night of the Kings
Quo Vadis, Aida?
A Sun
Sun Children
Two of Us
Analysis:
My only top ten hopeful falling out was my #10 Notturno (which made the Documentary list). No real surprises with Another Round as a soft frontrunner to win.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Ten films were shortlisted as follows:
Birds of Prey
Emma
The Glorias
Hillbilly Elegy
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
The Little Things
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
One Night in Miami
Pinocchio
Analysis:
Two of my predicted nominees from my last round had their possibilities cease today: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and The United States vs. Billie Holiday (ranked fourth and fifth respectively). Also dropped: The Trial of the Chicago 7 (#7), News of the World (#8), and Mulan (#9). Ma Rainey will probably remain in my #1 spot with Hillbilly and Mank following.
Best Original Score
Fifteen films were shortlisted as follows:
Ammonite
Blizzard of Souls
Da 5 Bloods
The Invisible Man
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
The Life Ahead
The Little Things
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Minari
Mulan
News of the World
Soul
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Analysis:
My #6 entry Hillbilly Elegy was a rather notable miss here while my other nine entries are still in the mix. This race could come down to Atticus Ross and Trent Reznor competing against themselves with Soul and Mank.
Best Original Song
Fifteen films were shortlisted as follows:
“Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy
“See What You’ve Done” from Belly of the Beast
“Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
“Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
“Never Break” from Giving Voice
“Make It Work” from Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
“Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah
“Seen” from The Life Ahead
“Rain Song” from Minari
“Show Me Your Soul” from Mr. Soul!
“Loyal Brave True” from Mulan
“Free” from The One and Only Ivan
“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
“Green” from Sound of Metal
“Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
Analysis:
As mentioned, no Taylor Swift for her track “Only the Young” from Miss Americana. Yet a larger omission was “Over the Moon” from the animated Rocket to the Moon, which I had ranked at #4. Another to miss the cut: “Tigress & Tweed” from The United States vs. Billie Holiday, which achieved a Golden Globes nod. “Speak Now” might have an edge, but I wouldn’t count out “Seen”.
Best Visual Effects
Ten films were shortlisted as follows:
Birds of Prey
Bloodshot
Love and Monsters
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
Soul
Tenet
Welcome to Chechnya
Analysis:
Some genuine shockers in VE with my #3 The Invisible Man and #4 Greyhound out of contention. Also missing: Wonder Woman 1984 (#7), Sonic the Hedgehog (#8), and The Call of the Wild (#10). In their places are pics I didn’t have on my radar like Bloodshot and Love and Monsters (the Chechnya nod was at least spoken of in recent days). Soul getting in certainly gives it a solid shot at inclusion, but Tenet and The Midnight Sky still appear to be the heavyweights.
Today’s news will certainly alter what you see when I update my estimates this weekend! Stay tuned…
As much as I want to predict Mel Gibson’s Santa Claus revenge tale Fatman in all categories based on its bonkers trailer, I shall refrain. However, there is more news to be discussed in my latest round of Oscar predictions.
Speaking of trailers, we got our first looks at two major contenders this week: David Fincher’s Mank (still holding in 1st place in Picture and Director and more) and News of the World from Paul Greengrass (with an impressive 10 predictions). Mank, by the way, leads all contenders with 12 and that takes over last week’s leader The Trial of the Chicago 7.
We also learned that Dune and No Time to Die have officially moved out of contention due to release date changes. I had Dune down for 8 nominations last week. I also listed the theme song from No Time to Die (performed by Billie Eilish) in first place for Original Song. These drops are reflected below.
Other developments:
Picture, Director, Actor, and Actress remain unchanged. I will note that French Exit will screen this weekend for critics and we will have a better idea as to Michelle Pfeiffer’s viability and if it could be a contender in other categories.
While Supporting Actor stays intact, I have moved Amanda Seyfried’s work in Mank in the Supporting Actress five over Ellen Burstyn in Pieces of a Woman.
With that, let’s get to the latest guesstimates!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
7. The Father (PR: 7)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
9. Minari (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Soul (PR: 10)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
12. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 13)
13. Ammonite (PR: 14)
14. Respect (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The White Tiger (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Dune
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
9. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 8)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)
4. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 4)
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7)
8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
9. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 10)
10. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
9. Matt Damon, Stillwater (PR: 9)
10. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
5. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
7. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 7)
8. Lily Collins, Mank (PR: 8)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Abigail Breslin, Stillwater
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
4. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 6)
7. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 10)
8. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. Tom Pelphrey, Mank (PR: 8)
10. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 5)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
5. Soul (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
7. On the Rocks (PR: 6)
8. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Respect (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Stillwater (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Ammonite
C’Mon C’Mon
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
8. French Exit (PR: 10)
9. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 9)
10. Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Over the Moon (PR: 2)
3. Wolfwalkers (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Predicted Nominees:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. Connected (PR: 7)
8. Bombay Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Trolls World Tour (PR: 9)
10. Earwig and the Witch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rumble
Ride Your Wave
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Crip Camp (PR: 1)
2. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 4)
3. Boys State (PR: 2)
4. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 3)
5. The Dissident (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)
7. Totally Under Control (PR: Not Ranked)
8. 76 Days (PR: Not Ranked)
9. MLK/FBI (PR: 7)
10. Notturno (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spaceship Earth
John Lewis: Good Trouble
Miss Americana
On the Record
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. Another Round (PR: 6)
3. New Order (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
5. The Disciple (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. My Little Sister (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Wife of a Spy (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Atlantis (PR: 5)
10. A Sun (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ema
The Life Ahead
Young Ahmed
Memory House
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 10)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune
Ammonite
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Mulan (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 10)
8. Coming 2 America (PR: 6)
9. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ammonite (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Dune
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 4)
4. News of the World (PR: 3)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
7. The Father (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
10. Tenet (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Dune
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)
3. Mank (PR: 1)
4. Mulan (PR: 5)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Respect (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
9. Emma (PR: 8)
10, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune
No Time to Die
Wonder Woman 1984
Ammonite
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Soul (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 6)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
7. Over the Moon (PR: 9)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
9. Tenet (PR: 10)
10. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 7)
3. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: Not Ranked)
4. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 9)
5. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 3)
8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 6)
9. “Carried Me with You” from Onward (PR: 8)
10. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
“See What You’ve Done” from Belly of the Beast
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 3)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
7. Rebecca (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Ammonite (PR: 6)
9. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune
One Night in Miami
Tenet
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. Soul (PR: 3)
3. News of the World (PR: 7)
4. Mank (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greyhound (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Respect (PR: 5)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune
The Invisible Man
No Time to Die
Wonder Woman 1984
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 2)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
3. Greyhound (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 6)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Call of the Wild (PR: 7)
8. Birds of Prey (PR: 10)
9. Free Guy (PR: 9)
10. Dolittle (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune
Wonder Woman 1984
No Time to Die
That equates to the following numbers of nominations for features:
12 Nominations
Mank
10 Nominations
News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
6 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Nomadland, One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
The Father, Mulan, Soul
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Ammonite, Minari, Over the Moon, Tenet
1 Nomination
Birds of Prey, Boys State, Coming 2 America, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Disciple, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, Giving Voice, Greyhound, Hillbilly Elegy, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, New Order, Night of the Kings, The One and Only Ivan, Onward, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Wolfwalkers
As October begins, my weekly Oscar predictions get a major expansion as I am now including all categories covering feature length films! Additionally, I’m dwindling the listed prospects in all the top races. For Best Picture, it goes from 25 to 15. The directing, acting, and screenplay contests drop from 15 to 10. This is why you’ll see so many movies dropping out of contention.
Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch is rumored to be moving from the 2020 window. While this has yet to be confirmed, I have taken it out of the running at this time. Obviously once its release date is announced, I’ll adjust accordingly.
For the tech races and Animated Feature, International Film, and Documentary Feature – I’ve definitely learned that these estimates will be fluid over the next months. This is just a first glimpse at where my head’s at.
As for developments in the significant categories:
Lee Isaac Chung’s Minari makes it debut in my nine predicted Picture nominees and that takes out Pixar’s Soul (which is listed #1 in Animated Feature). The directing players remain the same.
I have switched Kingsley Ben-Adir’s performance in One Night in Miami from Supporting Actor to lead. He makes the five and that drops Tom Hanks in News of the World. The Best Actress estimates remain.
The Supporting Actress nominees also stay intact. However, Ben-Adir’s shift in Supporting Actor means I am now including three actors from The Trial of the Chicago 7: Mark Rylance, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, and Sacha Baron Cohen. I’m not at all confident this happens, but it’s where I am at the moment. I now have Leslie Odom, Jr. as the representative from One Night in Miami in the race. Lakeith Stanfield moves away from the top five.
There are no changes in the screenplay predictions.
As a bonus, I am including how many nominees from my initial full predictions in 2019 ended up getting nominated in each race to give you an idea of historical accuracy. I will note that I didn’t expand my estimates last year until October 17th, so I did have a bit more to go on.
And with all that, let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
7. The Father (PR: 6)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
9. Minari (PR: 12)
Other Possibilities:
10. Soul (PR: 9)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
12. Dune (PR: 10)
13. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 13)
14. Ammonite (PR: 16)
15. The White Tiger (PR: 14)
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 8/9
Dropped Out:
The French Dispatch
Stillwater
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Respect
The Midnight Sky
Annette
Next Goal Wins
Red, White and Water
C’Mon C’Mon
French Exit
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
5. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
8. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 11)
9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
10. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy
Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
Ramin Bahrani, The White Tiger
Tom McCarthy, Stillwater
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)
4. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 4)
5. Michele Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7)
8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
9. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 11)
10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 9)
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5
Dropped Out:
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White and Water
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Rachel Brosnahan, I’m Your Woman
Marion Cotillard, Annette
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR 2)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 5)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 8)
8. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
9. Matt Damon, Stillwater (PR: 6)
10. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7)
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5
Dropped Out:
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Courier
Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins
Adam Driver, Annette
Trevante Rhodes, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 6)
7. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 7)
8. Lily Collins, Mank (PR: 14)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Abigail Breslin, Stillwater (PR: 8)
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 2/5
Dropped Out:
Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans
Mary J. Blige, Respect
Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Gaby Hoffman, C’Mon C’Mon
Kristin Scott Thomas, Rebecca
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
4. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 8)
7. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
8. Tom Pelphrey, Mank (PR: 9)
9. Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 12)
10. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 11)
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5
Dropped Out:
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (moved to Lead Actor)
Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Richard Jenkins, The Humans
Tom Burke, Mank
Charles Dance, Mank
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
4. Soul (PR: 3)
5. Minari (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. On the Rocks (PR: 11)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
8. Ammonite (PR: 9)
9. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10)
10. Stillwater (PR: 8)
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5
Dropped Out:
The French Dispatch
Respect
Pieces of a Woman
Red, White and Water
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
5. News of the World (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Dune (PR: 8)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
9. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 9)
10. French Exit (PR: 10)
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5
Dropped Out:
The White Tiger
Next Goal Wins
The Humans
First Cow
The Midnight Sky
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul
2. Over the Moon
3. Wolfwalkers
4. Onward
5. The Croods: A New Age
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys
7. Connected
8. Rumble
9. Trolls World Tour
10. Ride Your Wave
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Crip Camp
2. Boys State
3. All In: The Fight for Democracy
4. Dick Johnson is Dead
5. Spaceship Earth
Other Possibilities:
6. John Lewis: Good Trouble
7. MLK/FBI
8. The Truffle Hunters
9. Miss Americana
10. On the Record
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 2/5
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida?
2. The Disciple
3. Night of the Kings
4. Ema
5. Atlantis
Other Possibilities:
6. Another Round
7. The Life Ahead
8. Young Ahmed
9. A Sun
10. Memory House
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank
2. Nomadland
3. News of the World
4. Dune
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods
7. One Night in Miami
8. Judas and the Black Messiah
9. Ammonite
10. Tenet
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Emma
4. Dune
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Other Possibilities:
6. Coming 2 America
7. Ammonite
8. News of the World
9. Mulan
10. The Personal History of David Copperfield
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 2/5
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Mank
3. News of the World
4. Nomadland
5. Dune
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods
7. One Night in Miami
8. Tenet
9. Judas and the Black Messiah
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank
2. Dune
3. Birds of Prey
4. Coming 2 America
5. Mulan
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. No Time to Die
8. Emma
9. Wonder Woman 1984
10. Ammonite
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 2/5
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank
2. Soul
3. Da 5 Bloods
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. Dune
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World
7. The Midnight Sky
8. One Night in Miami
9. Over the Moon
10. Tenet
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
2. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan
3. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
Other Possibilities:
6. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
7. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon
8. “Carried Me with You” from Onward
9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice
10. “See What You’ve Done” from Belly of the Beast
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank
2. Dune
3. News of the World
4. Mulan
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7
Other Possibilities:
6. Ammonite
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
8. One Night in Miami
9. Tenet
10. Judas and the Black Messiah
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet
2. Dune
3. Soul
4. Sound of Metal
5. Respect
Other Possibilities:
6. The Invisible Man
7. News of the World
8. No Time to Die
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7
10. Wonder Woman 1984
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: N/A – CATEGORY WAS SPLIT BETWEEN SOUND EDITING & SOUND MIXING
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune
2. Tenet
3. Greyhound
4. Wonder Woman 1984
5. The Invisible Man
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan
7. The Call of the Wild
8. No Time to Die
9. Free Guy
10. Birds of Prey
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5
And that gives us our first breakdown of how many nominations I believe we will see for each picture:
12 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
10 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Dune
7 Nominations
News of the World
6 Nominations
Nomadland, One Night in Miami
5 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
4 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Soul
2 Nominations
Ammonite, Minari, Mulan, Pieces of a Woman, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Atlantis, Birds of Prey, Boys State, Coming 2 America, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson is Dead, The Disciple, Ema, Emma, French Exit, Greyhound, Hillbilly Elegy, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, Miss Americana, Night of the Kings, No Time to Die, The One and Only Ivan, Onward, Over the Moon, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Respect, Sound of Metal, Spaceship Earth, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984
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