Oscar Predictions: The Alto Knights

Robert De Niro plays the dual roles of real-life Mafiosos Vito Genovese and Frank Costello in The Alto Knights, premiering this weekend. The crime drama reunites the star with Barry Levinson, who directed him in Sleepers, Wag the Dog, and The Wizard of Lies. Costars include Debra Messing, Cosmo Jarvis, Kathrine Narducci, and Michael Rispoli.

Critics are not singing Alto‘s praises. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 39% with Metacritic at 47. The March release date should’ve been a tipoff that De Niro won’t be receiving his ninth (or tenth) acting nominations. Same goes for any other categories. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Alto Knights Box Office Prediction

Robert De Niro pulls double duty as real-life mobsters Vito Genovese and Frank Costello in The Alto Knights on March 21st. The crime drama from director Barry Levinson rolls into approximately 2500 venues with Debra Messing, Cosmo Jarvis, Kathrine Narducci, and Michael Rispoli in the supporting cast. Nicholas Pileggi, who wrote the source material for De Niro’s classic GoodFellas, penned the screenplay.

Warner Bros isn’t putting much marketing muscle behind this. Originally slated for February of last year, this is Levinson’s first theatrical project since the 2015 Bill Murray flop Rock the Kasbah. He did direct his star in HBO’s The Wizard of Lies back in 2017. Though De Niro is back in his most known genre, I’ll say Alto struggles to even hit $5 million as I analyze this.

The Alto Knight opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million

For my Snow White prediction, click here:

Snow White Box Office Prediction

Fatman Review

Santa Claus is comin’ to frown in Fatman, which should have never gotten past the conceptual stage. From brother directors Eshom and Ian Nelms, Mel Gibson is a dour Chris Cringle. Holiday cheer isn’t what it used to be and neither is business. He’s remotely located in Alaska with supportive wife Ruth (Marianne Jean-Baptiste) and the elves and reindeer when an overachieving kid and the U.S. government cramp his style.

His toy making enterprise is disrupted by the military (they’ve got a contact with him) and his diminutive workers are tasked with making parts for a fighter jet. A different kind of contract is put out on Santa’s head by spoiled brat Billy (Chance Hurstfield). When he receives a lump of coal on Christmas morning, he hires hitman Jonathan (Walton Goggins) to exact revenge on the bearded icon. This is no problem for the eccentric assassin as he harbors childhood ill will toward the no longer jolly Saint Nick.

A potentially interesting idea is simply squandered here. Fatman isn’t good for many laughs or thrilling action sequences. The industrial complex themes are reminiscent of Barry Levinson’s expensive bomb Toys from 1992. When that’s the only comparison that comes to mind, you’re in trouble. It’s as if the filmmakers (who also wrote the script) believed the notion of Santa toting weapons and protecting his turf was enough to fill 100 minutes. Turns out the answer is no no no! Gibson’s Cringle is supposed to be bored for the most of the running time so that sort of explains his performance. You’ll (or shall I say) yule be right there with him in this joyless slog.

*1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: The Survivor

For about a decade starting in the early 80s, the films of Barry Levinson were a magnet for awards nominations. 1988’s Rain Man won Best Picture and Levinson took directing honors. 1991’s Bugsy scored numerous nods including the aforementioned big races. The Natural and Good Morning, Vietnam earned acting mentions. Levinson received screenplay nominations for Diner and Avalon.

Over the past decade or so, the filmmaker’s most acclaimed titles have come on the small screen with several HBO movies. His previous big screen offering was the panned 2015 Bill Murray vehicle Rock the Kasbah.

Those fortunes could change with The Survivor, which has screened in Toronto. The black and white Holocaust drama tells the true life story of Harry Haft (Ben Foster). During his captivity at Auschwitz, he was forced to box fellow prisoners in order to survive. Costars include Billy Magnussen, Danny DeVito, Vicky Krieps, Peter Sarsgaard, and John Leguizamo.

Reviews from our neighbor up north have resulted in an 88% Rotten Tomatoes score. Not all the generally positive reaction are raves, but there’s one consistency. Foster is being heralded for his role. Despite praised performances in Hell or High Water and Leave No Trace, Foster has yet to capture the attention of Oscar voters. The actor reportedly lost a tremendous amount of weight for the part. That has been a recipe for making the ballot for plenty of winners and contenders including Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) and Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) to name just two. The Best Actor race probably has two slots filled already with Will Smith (King Richard) and Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog). Hopefuls are waiting in the wings like Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth), Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley), and Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up). There’s other performances from the fest circuit such as Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon), Peter Dinklage (Cyrano), and Clifton Collins Jr. (Jockey) in the mix.

First things first. The Survivor needs to find a distributor and a 2021 release date to qualify. It will likely do so. The next question is how hard its eventual studio/streamer pushes for Foster. The Survivor is also a possibility in Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, and maybe even Picture and Director if its gets the right push.

Bottom line: I’ve yet to even mention The Survivor in my weekly Oscar predictions. I doubt I’ll be projecting it yet for inclusion in the aforementioned categories, but I do suspect it will bubble up for the first time in other possibilities. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…

Paterno Movie Review

Paterno opens during an important football game as the 84-year-old Penn State coaching legend is going for a personal NCAA record in wins. The elderly team leader sits up high in a press box and not on the sidelines, plotting out the victory. He’s removed, but involved. It’s an allegory for what follows. This is the central question of the massive scandal that follows and the rendering of the subject’s legacy in the public view. How removed was Joe Paterno in the Jerry Sandusky saga? Or how involved was he?

The HBO effort marks the second collaboration of director Barry Levinson and leading man Al Pacino for the cable network. Their first was 2010’s You Don’t Know Jack, in which the Oscar winner played Dr. Kevorkian. Levinson also made last year’s The Wizard of Lies, which cast Robert De Niro as Ponzi scheme maker Bernie Madoff. That picture had some issues with its story structure and so does this.

The tale unfolds in November 2011 over a week’s period of time that feels like an eternity for those in Happy Valley. When former assistant coach Jerry Sandusky is charged with multiple accounts of child sexual abuse, the focus soon turns to what the iconic Paterno (Pacino) knew and when. It’s a startling turn of quick events that results in the coach’s dismissal, as well as others involved with the college.

Breaking the explosive story is local reporter Sara Ganim (Riley Keough), whose sordid tale is ignored for a bit. And then everyone in the world pays attention. It’s this work that would result in a Pulitzer for her and the downfall of a living and breathing institution. This journalistic expose is done in a setting where many of the Penn State faithful are in a haze and in denial about what’s happening. Many don’t want to believe Paterno could have done any wrong in failing to report his knowledge of Sandusky’s evil.

This plot line of the bravery of reporters and the victims to shed light on Sandusky’s crimes and the inability of university officials to do the right thing is the fascinating one. However, Paterno the movie spends most of its running time holed up in Paterno the man’s home as he’s in crisis control mode with his family and advisors.

It does provide Pacino an opportunity for a choice role, just as his other HBO projects have in the 21st century (both Jack and 2003’s Angels in America). He is successful in mimicking the look and mannerisms of the coach. Paterno is played as a man seemingly incapable of understanding the gravity of the unfolding storm around him. The same goes for many in State College.

There’s a remarkable sequence where people take to the streets to protest JoePa’s firing as Sara watches. She knows that she is largely responsible for their vitriol, but also instrumental in putting away a monster. A deeper dive into how that happened could have been intriguing. Paterno largely removes itself from that process while providing a slightly disappointing but well-acted experience from those involved.

**1/2 (out of four)

Rock the Kasbah Box Office Prediction

Bill Murray headlines the comedy Rock the Kasbah, out next weekend and it hopes to join the many successful genre pics Mr. Murray has graced over the past three decades plus. Oscar winner Barry Levinson directs Murray as a has-been rock agent looking to reclaim his mojo in Afghanistan, of all places. The stellar supporting cast includes Bruce Willis, Kate Hudson, Zooey Deschanel, and Danny McBride.

Last year around the same time period, Murray’s St. Vincent opened to positive buzz and an eventual $44 million domestic gross. Rock the Kasbah may have trouble replicating that kind of business. For starters, the buzz on Kasbah isn’t as hot as that of Vincent and there’s also plenty of adult competition in the form of Steve Jobs and the second weekend of Bridge of Spies, among others. On the other hand, this really is the only comedy out there among lots of dramas and horror type flicks.

As I see it, this modestly budgeted $15 million pic might struggle to reach double digits in weekend number one and its best hope might be small drop-offs in subsequent weekends for a respectable gross.

Rock the Kasbah opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million