One of the most eagerly awaited titles screening at the Toronto Film Festival has premiered in the form of If Beale Street Could Talk, the third directorial feature from Barry Jenkins. As you may recall, his second film Moonlight took home the Academy Award for Best Picture in 2016 in rather memorable fashion over La La Land.
Beale Street is based on a James Baldwin novel and set in mid 70s Harlem. The pic sports a large ensemble cast led by Stephan James and Kiki Layne alongside Regina Hall, Colman Domingo, Teyonah Parris, Pedro Pascal, Diego Luna, Ed Skrein, and Dave Franco. Early reviews suggest this could be a player in multiple categories, including Best Picture and Director. In down the line races, it could be recognized for its score from Nicholas Britell as well as Cinematography, Editing, and Production Design. Jenkins could also contend for his Adapted Screenplay. While most critical reaction is strong, some have said it doesn’t quite match up to Moonlight. That said, we shall see if that particular buzz changes in the coming weeks and I feel pretty secure marking it for Picture consideration.
As for the cast, that’s a little murkier. James and Layne are receiving positive notices, but both the lead acting races seem awfully crowded. Both Hall and Parris could contend in Supporting Actress, but that too is far from guaranteed.
Bottom line: If Beale Street Could Talk likely did what it needed to do to be in the Picture and Director mix, while acting nods are a bit less clear.
The film opens domestically on November 30. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
What a difference a week makes! Last Thursday, I gave you my first initial predictions in the major categories for the Oscars. Since then – we’ve seen a slew of pictures screened at the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals.
Films like A Star Is Born, Roma, First Man, and The Favourite solidified their status as contenders. Others like Boy Erased and The Front Runner availed themselves as possibilities, but not slam dunks. Others like Destroyer and The Old Man & The Gun likely took themselves out of the running in Best Picture, but shined a light on their actors that could receive nods.
And here’s the thing… by the time I do my third round of predictions next Thursday, we will have lots more pictures screened at the Toronto Film Festival, which begins today. That includes such high-profile titles as If Beale Street Could Talk, Beautiful Boy, Widows, and more.
Here’s how I have the key races ranked by possibility of nomination at this point in time!
Best Picture
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Roma (PR: 4)
4. First Man (PR: 5)
5. Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)
6. The Favourite (PR: 13)
7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
8. Boy Erased (PR: 7)
9. Backseat (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Front Runner (PR: 14)
11. Black Panther (PR: 12)
12. Peterloo (PR: 9)
13. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)
14. Widows (PR: 11)
15. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 16)
16. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 17)
17. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 22)
18. Green Book (PR: 21)
19. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 24)
20. Cold War (PR: Not Ranked)
21. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 23)
22. July 22 (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 19)
24. The Sisters Brothers (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
The Old Man & The Gun
Destroyer
Ben Is Back
Best Director
1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 2)
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 4)
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 11)
7. Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy (PR: 6)
8. Adam McKay, Backseat (PR: 7)
9. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
10. Jason Reitman, The Front Runner (PR: 14)
11. Mike Leigh, Peterloo (PR: 9)
12. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: Not Ranked)
My weekly ranked Oscar predictions kick off today as the Venice Film Festival is in full swing with Toronto and Telluride on deck!
Each Thursday, I will be bringing you my top 25 possibilities for Best Picture, along with 15 for Best Director, the four acting races, and the screenplay categories.
In November, the rankings will constrict to 15 possibilities for Best Picture and ten for every other race covering feature films (this is when all the tech categories, animated feature, foreign film, documentary will enter the mix).
Before I get to the rankings, some warnings: these will change dramatically as time rolls along. Some features could be pushed back to 2019. Some of them will instantly become non-factors due to poor critical reaction. Others will vault higher.
In the acting races, there is always uncertainty at this juncture about placement in which category. Here’s a few 2018 examples: right now I have Steve Carell listed in lead actor for Beautiful Boy with Timothee Chalamet in supporting. That could switch or both could be campaigned for in lead. Time will tell. Same goes for Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali in Green Book. Right now, I have Tim Blake Nelson in The Ballad of Buster Scruggs for lead, but it could easily be supporting. And it’s uncertain where the women (Olivia Colman, Rachel Weisz, Emma Stone) of The Favourite will land.
All of this will be sorted out in the coming weeks and months and I’ll be here every Thursday to share with you where I have each category at this snapshot in time.
You can expect a whole bunch of Oscar Watch posts coming your way directly focused on individual films screenings at festivals over the coming days.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
BestPicture
1. If Beale Street Could Talk
2. A Star Is Born
3. Beautiful Boy
4. Roma
5. First Man
6. BlacKkKlansman
7. Boy Erased
8. Backseat
9. Peterloo
Other Possibilities:
10. Mary Queen of Scots
11. Widows
12. Black Panther
13. The Favourite
14. The Front Runner
15. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
16. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
17. Crazy Rich Asians
18. Old Man & The Gun
19. Bohemian Rhapsody
20. Destroyer
21. Green Book
22. Mary Poppins Returns
23. At Eternity’s Gate
24. On the Basis of Sex
25. Ben Is Back
BestDirector
1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
4. Damien Chazelle, First Man
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Other Possibilities:
6. Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy
7. Adam McKay, Backseat
8. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
9. Mike Leigh, Peterloo
10. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
12. Steve McQueen, Widows
13. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
14. Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
15. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
We’ve arrived at Best Director in my early bird predictions for the 2018 Oscars! In the last couple of days, I’ve also posted my take on the four acting categories and the new race that everyone has an opinion on – Best Popular Film. If you missed those, you can find them right here:
As mentioned previously, these categories will all come into much sharper focus this coming week when Venice kicks off Film Festival season with Toronto to quickly follow.
Let’s get to it with Director and Best Picture will follow later today.
We may be smack dab in the middle of the summer movie season, but Oscar season will be taking shape before we know it. This week, the organizers of the Toronto and Venice Film Festivals have unveiled lineups for the pictures that will be premiering at their events in a few weeks. Many of them are awards hopefuls.
To give you an idea of the importance of festivals when it comes to Oscar nominees, six of last year’s nine nominees premiered at some combination of Toronto, Venice, Telluride, New York, Sundance, or Cannes. Every Best Picture winner from this decade and beyond played at one of them. The last one that didn’t was The Departed back in 2006.
The months of September-December are the fertile ground for most nominated features. Last year, seven of the nine Picture nominees came out in that time frame. In 2016 – it was 8 out of 9.
Beginning in late August/early September, I will begin my weekly Oscar prediction columns. It works like this:
Late August/Early September – first posting of predictions in the categories of Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress
Months of September and October – weekly Oscar predictions column post covering those 6 categories, as well as Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay. For Best Picture, I will be ranking possibilities numbered 1-25. For other categories, it will be numbered 1-15.
Months of November through announcement of nominations – weekly Oscar predictions column covering every category involving feature films. For Best Picture, I will be ranking possibilities numbered 1-15. For other categories, it will be numbered 1-10.
While these posts are a month away, today I bring you 25 fall awards hopefuls that I suspect I’ll be mentioning frequently. Most of these are premiering at the high-profile quartet of upcoming fests (Venice, Toronto, New York, Telluride). Some aren’t, but could certainly be added to Telluride or New York especially (as they’re more known for surprise screenings).
Let’s get to it!
A Star is Born
The third remake of the musical drama marks the directorial debut of Bradley Cooper and features a potential showcase role for his costar Lady Gaga. Early word of mouth is already strong.
At Eternity’s Gate
He received a nomination for his supporting work last year for The Florida Project and Willem Dafoe plays Vincent Van Gogh in what could be another awards bait role.
**NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
Backseat
Expect Adam McKay’s follow-up to The Big Short to receive plenty of attention. Christian Bale is Cheney with Amy Adams as wife Lynne and last year’s Supporting Actor winner Sam Rockwell as George W. Bush.
**NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
Beautiful Boy
Steve Carell plays the father of a meth addict played by Timothee Chalamet, who was nominated last year for Call Me by Your Name.
Ben is Back
Lucas Hedges and Julia Roberts headline this family drama that premieres at Toronto.
**NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
Bohemian Rhapsody
Despite some behind the scenes drama in its filming, all eyes will be on Rami Malek’s work as Queen front man Freddie Mercury.
Boy Erased
Perhaps an even larger showcase role for Lucas Hedges is this drama where he plays a homosexual sent to conversion camp. Joel Edgerton directs and costars along with Nicole Kidman and Russell Crowe.
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Melissa McCarthy received an Academy Award nomination with her breakthrough role in Bridesmaids. This drama about writer Lee Israel could muster attention for her yet again.
First Man
Director Damien Chazelle has seen both of his efforts (Whiplash, La La Land) nominated for Best Picture and he’s the youngest filmmaker to ever win Best Director. His third pic is a Neil Armstrong biopic starring Ryan Gosling. It opens the Venice Film Festival.
If Beale Street Could Talk
The follow-up to his Oscar winning Moonlight, Barry Jenkins directs this drama set in 1970s Harlem.
July 22
United 93 and Captain Phillips director Paul Greengrass brings his latest to Netflix and it focuses on the 2011 terrorist attacks in Norway.
**NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
Life Itself
Premiering at Toronto, this ensemble drama includes Oscar Isaac, Olivia Munn, Annette Bening, and Antonio Banderas.
Mary Poppins Returns
She’s already a contender for A Quiet Place and Emily Blunt could face competition from herself with Disney’s expected monster hit.
Mary Queen of Scots
They were both nominated for Best Actress last year and now Saoirse Ronan and Margot Robbie star in this historical drama about the title character and Queen Elizabeth I.
Old Man & The Gun
David Lowery directs Robert Redford in the true life tale of a prison escape artist. Sissy Spacek and Casey Affleck costar.
On the Basis of Sex
The documentary RBG could get noticed by the Documentary branch, as could this biopic which casts Felicity Jones as Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
Peterloo
Acclaimed British director Mike Leigh returns with this historical 19th century drama.
Roma
This Mexican family drama is Alfonso Cuaron’s first directorial effort since his acclaimed Gravity.
Suspiria
Call Me by Your Name maker Luca Guadagnino shifts gears for this remake of the 1970s horror classic. Don’t be surprised if this receives attention in some technical categories.
The Favourite
The Lobster director Yorgos Lanthimos is behind this historical drama featuring Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz.
The Front Runner
Jason Reitman directs this biopic of failed Presidential candidate Gary Hart with Hugh Jackman cast in the role.
**NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
The Sisters Brothers
John C. Reilly, Joaquin Phoenix, and Jake Gyllenhaal are among the cast in this Western from acclaimed French director Jacques Audiard.
Welcome to Marwen
Steve Carell stars in this unique looking drama from Forrest Gump maker Robert Zemeckis.
Widows
It’s been five years between projects for Oscar winning 12 Years a Slave director Steve McQueen. This heist thriller stars recent winner Viola Davis.
And there’s your very early preview of some titles to keep an eye on over the coming months. Those Oscar posts will start rolling out weekly in about a month! Stay tuned…
One not need to live in Chiron’s world in Moonlight to understand his struggles. We all have moments where we feel isolated. We all have had family drama. We all have moments where we strive to figure out who we are. The central character in this Barry Jenkins picture may experience it at an elevated level and in a universe where his identity is shunned. However, we manage to identify with him and that’s a tribute to an often subtle and smart script.
The film is told in three chapters as it follows various stages in Chiron’s life in Miami and eventually Atlanta. It begins under the heading “Little”, where we find him as a shy young boy. His mother Paula (Naomie Harris) is an absentee one and Little is soon befriended by drug dealer Juan (Mahershala Ali) and his girlfriend Teresa (Janelle Monae). They serve as his de facto parents.
Second chapter “Chiron” finds him as a teenager who’s frequently targeted at school. Paula is now a drug addict, Teresa still cares for him, and Juan is no longer in the picture. He also has a complicated relationship with longtime friend Kevin that alters between romantic and antagonistic.
Chapter three “Black” finds Chiron as a twenty something whose life has veered into territory much like Juan’s. It would probably be something his father figure would despise. The years gone by have also gotten him out of touch with Kevin, but their paths coincide once again.
Moonlight finds three actors playing Chiron (and Kevin) in these stages. Alex Hibbert is the youngster in part one, Ashton Sanders is the teen, and Trevante Rhodes is the young man. All of them shine. Same goes for the supporting players, with note deserved to Ali for putting a fresh spin on a character who could’ve been far more stereotypical.
There are events key to Chiron’s story that aren’t shown here and while I understand the structural decision not to belabor them, it does occasionally take away from its overall dramatic impact.
Yet its staying power is still significant. The film is about someone discovering their sexuality and we finds ourselves for rooting for Chiron to get there. No matter your identity, you’ll recognize and sympathize with moments of family struggle, bullying, and loneliness. Jenkins (who wrote and directed) assuredly keeps the audience wondering where his subject’s journey turns next.
Good Sunday all! 15 days from today, the Oscars will air and for the next three Sundays, I’ll be giving you my take on where I see each category standing. This means my winner prediction and each nominee listed in order of likelihood to take their prize.
My final predictions will post on Sunday, February 26 prior to the broadcast the next day. Let’s get to it, shall we?
The final major awards ceremony before Oscar takes place tonight on TBS and TNT as the 23rd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards airs. These awards and winners are voted by fellow thespians, so the races are a bit different in the sense that there’s no Best Picture per se. Instead it’s Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture and the five nominated pictures contains one rather glaring omission: LaLaLand, even though it’s the front runner at the Academy Awards.
We do have the other acting races we’re accustomed to, as well as Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture. Let’s break each category down one by one with my predicted winners for this evening.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Analysis: The recipient here could solidify its status as Most Likely to Win Best Picture at the Oscars if LaLa doesn’t. I’ll predict the SAG voters give the edge to Barry Jenkins acclaimed drama over Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester, just like the Globes did.
OutstandingPerformancebyaMaleActorinaLeadingRole
Nominees: Casey Affleck (ManchesterbytheSea), Andrew Garfield (HacksawRidge), Ryan Gosling (LaLaLand), Viggo Mortensen (CaptainFantastic), Denzel Washington (Fences)
Predicted Winner: Casey Affleck
Analysis: The five nominees match five for five with the Academy. Affleck has received the lions share of precursors thus far and I expect that to continue here. Washington is the only other possibility.
Nominees: Amy Adams (Arrival), Emily Blunt (TheGirlontheTrain), Natalie Portman (Jackie), Emma Stone (LaLaLand), Meryl Streep (FlorenceFosterJenkins)
Predicted Winner: Natalie Portman
Analysis: Yes, I’m going for the minor upset here as Stone is the likely front runner. Only the two of them and Streep match the Oscar nods, as SAG honored Adams and Blunt instead of Isabelle Huppert (Elle) and Ruth Negga (Loving).
Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (HellorHighWater), Hugh Grant (FlorenceFosterJenkins), Lucas Hedges (ManchesterbytheSea), Dev Patel (Lion)
Predicted Winner: Mahershala Ali
Analysis: A win by either Bridges or Patel wouldn’t surprise me, but Ali has picked up a lot of critics prizes. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, surprise Globe winner for NocturnalAnimals, isn’t present here.
Analysis: This is a tough one as either of the comic book flicks could win. Still, I’ll go with the only nominated Best Picture at the Oscars. By the way, why Nocturnal is present here baffles me.
And… they’re out! After months of predictions and Oscar Watch posts, the 2016 Oscar nominations were announced this morning. Save for a couple of the technical categories, I must say I’m pretty pleased with my results! Per usual, there were a couple of surprising inclusions and omissions.
Let’s go race by race and see how I did, shall we? I am also including my commentary with each category and, for the first time (!) giving my first predictions on who and what will win…
Best Picture
Todd’s Performance: 9/9 (!)
Analysis: Since the Oscars went to the format where 5-10 Pictures can be nominated, 9 has mostly been the magic number and that held true this time around. There were no surprises here, as evidenced by my perfect score with the biggest race of all. The nominees are: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight.
Winner Prediction: La La Land
There are 3 films that stand a chance – La La, Manchester, and Moonlight. Yet there’s no denying that Damien Chazelle’s musical is the front runner, as it tied the record of 14 nominations today along with All About Eve and Titanic.
Best Director
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: There were four easy picks to make and they were all honored: Chazelle (La La), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester), and Denis Villeneuve (Arrival). The fifth slot has consistently been the tricky one in recent weeks and I went with DGA nominee Garth Davis (Lion). The Academy instead brought previous winner Mel Gibson back into their good graces once again for Hacksaw Ridge.
Winner Prediction: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
This one is tougher than Picture. Barry Jenkins has emerged victorious in a number of precursors. Ultimately I’m forecasting that Picture and Director will match in honoring Chazelle’s return to the Hollywood musical.
Best Actor
Todd’s Performance: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: The five performers recognized today have been the most likely to get in for about a month, at least. They are: Casey Affleck (Manchester), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw), Ryan Gosling (La La), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), and Denzel Washington (Fences). It played out as such.
Winner Prediction: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Actor is essentially a two man race between Affleck and Denzel, but the Manchester lead has racked up the lions share of other awards show and I feel Oscar will follow.
Best Actress
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: Let’s get the four women I got right out of the way: Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Natalie Portman (Jackie), Emma Stone (La La), and Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins). No surprises there, but what was a bit startling was the omission of Amy Adams in Arrival. I had her ranked third out of five possibilities. Then – my sixth (Annette Bening, 20th Century Women) and seventh (Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train) place alternate picks didn’t make it in. That slot was filled with #8 – Ruth Negga in Loving. Not a huge shock as Actress has been packed for some time, but I thought Negga getting it would replace either Huppert or Streep. Not so.
Winner Prediction: Emma Stone, La La Land
I could see Stone, Portman, and maybe even Huppert taking the statue, but I’ll give Stone the gold.
Best Supporting Actor
Todd’s Performance 5/5 (!)
Analysis: I’ll give myself a hearty pat on the back for this as Supporting Actor was a tough race to wrap your head around this year. The nominees: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Lucas Hedges (Manchester), Dev Patel (Lion), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals).
Winner Prediction: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Ali has won the bulk of precursors and this is the safe pick. That said, this is often a race where upsets happen and I could see Bridges, Patel, and possibly Shannon standing a chance.
Best Supporting Actress
Todd’s Performance: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: I’ll give myself a softer pat on the back with this one as the five expected nominees held court. They are: Viola Davis (Fences), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), and Michelle Williams (Manchester).
Winner Prediction: Viola Davis, Fences
Of all the acting races, this is the easiest to project as Davis has been the front runner for months and remains so.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: As expected – Arrival, Fences (which some had on the fence), Lion, and Moonlight are in. I had Nocturnal Animals getting a nod, but the writers chose Hidden Figures instead.
Winner Prediction: Moonlight
The Barry Jenkins picture is a heavy, heavy favorite here.
Best Original Screenplay
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
Analysis: I correctly predicted Hell or High Water, La La Land, and Manchester by the Sea. I was a bit surprised to see Captain Fantastic left off, not as much so for dark horse pick I, Daniel Blake. In their place: The Lobster and 20th Century Women.
Winner Prediction: Manchester by the Sea
Kenneth Lonergan’s script is the favorite, but don’t discount a La La sweep factoring in here. Hell or High Water is a potential upset pick.
Best Animated Feature
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: I went with a bit of an upset pick with Pixar’s Finding Dory… and you usually don’t associate this category not including that studio’s work. Instead, The Red Turtle got in along with predicted nominees Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, and Zootopia.
Winner Prediction: Zootopia
Disney is likely to see their blockbuster take the prize, though Kubo could be lurking.
Best Documentary Feature
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: I Am Not Your Negro, Life, Animated, O.J.: Made in America, and 13th were correct estimates while Fire at Sea nabbed a nod instead of Cameraperson.
Winner Prediction: I Am Not Your Negro
This is a tough one as O.J. and 13th also stand decent chances.
Best Foreign Language Film
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: Tanna got in instead of predicted The King’s Choice. Other nominees: Land of Mine, A Man Called Ove, The Salesman, and Toni Erdmann.
Winner Prediction: The Salesman
The safe money could be on German comedy Erdmann, but I’m leaning toward Iranian drama The Salesman. I could switch back before showtime.
Best Cinematography
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: My Nocturnal Animals love bore no fruit again as my first alternate Lion was nominated. Other nominees: Arrival, La La Land, Moonlight, and Silence.
Winner Prediction: La La Land
I’ll go with the probable Best Picture winner, but Moonlight and Arrival are possibilities.
Best Costume Design
Todd’s Performance: 5/5 (!)
Analysis: I guess I know my costumes as I correctly predicted Allied, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Florence Foster Jenkins, Jackie, and La La Land.
Winner Prediction: Jackie
The La La love could extend here and possibly even Colleen Atwood’s work for Fantastic Beasts, but I’ll go Jackie.
Best Editing
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: Hell or High Water got in as opposed to Manchester. Other nominees: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land, and Moonlight.
Winner Prediction: La La Land
This category often matches Picture and it should here, too. Hacksaw and Arrival have shots.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Todd’s Performance: 1/3
Analysis: Not so good… There were seven possibilities out of three nominees and I only was able to get Star Trek Beyond right. In place of Deadpool and Florence Foster Jenkins are A Man Called Ove and Suicide Squad.
Winner Prediction: Star Trek Beyond
I guess I’ll go with it since it’s the only one I named correctly. This could change…
Best Original Score
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
Analysis: Jackie and a legitimately unforeseen Passengers got in instead of Florence Foster Jenkins and Nocturnal Animals, along with La La Land, Lion, and Moonlight.
Winner Prediction: La La Land
The musical should win here, but Lion could possibly be an upset winner. Not likely though.
Best Original Song
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: Expected nominees got in like the two from La La (“Audition” and “City of Stars”), Moana‘s “How Far I’ll Go”, and Justin Timberlake’s Trolls chart topper “Can’t Stop the Feeling!”. I went with “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street but the voters surprisingly chose “”The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story, a tune that was never even on my radar.
Winner Prediction: “City of Stars” from La La Land
It’s won the Golden Globe and should take this one.
Best Production Design
Todd’s Performance: 2/5
Analysis: Damn production designers! This one threw me for a loop as I only got Arrival and La La Land right. I whiffed on Jackie (which I was certain would get in), Nocturnal Animals (again), and Silence. In their place: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Hail, Caesar!, and those darn Passengers.
Winner Prediction: La La Land
La La should have this wrapped up over the competitors.
Best Sound Editing
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Analysis: Sully got in here instead of Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, along with Arrival, Deepwater Horizon, Hacksaw Ridge, and La La Land.
Winner Prediction: Hacksaw Ridge
Could be La La, Arrival, or even Deepwater, but I’ll give this to Hacksaw for its lone win.
Best Sound Mixing
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
Surprise nod here for 13 Hours: Secret Soldiers of Benghazi. I had Sully picked. Other nominees: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land, and Rogue One.
Winner Prediction: La La Land
Hard to imagine La La not taking this one.
Best Visual Effects
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
Deepwater Horizon and Kubo and the Two Strings made it in as opposed to Arrival (bit surprised there) and Fantastic Beasts (not as much so). Other nominees: Disney trio Doctor Strange, The Jungle Book, and Rogue One.
Winner Prediction: The Jungle Book
This could be a close one with Rogue, but I’ll predict Mowgli and his amazing CG animals pals.
That leaves this official breakdown of nominations:
14 Nominations
La La Land
8 Nominations
Arrival, Moonlight
6 Nominations
Hacksaw Ridge, Lion, Manchester by the Sea
4 Nominations
Fences, Hell or High Water
3 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Jackie
2 Nominations
Deepwater Horizon, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Florence Foster Jenkins, Kubo and the Two Strings, A Man Called Ove, Moana, Passengers, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
1 Nomination
Allied, Captain Fantastic, Doctor Strange, Elle, Fire at Sea, Hail, Caesar!, I Am Not Your Negro, Jim: The James Foley Story, The Jungle Book, Land of Mine, Life, Animated, The Lobster, Loving, My Life as a Zucchini, Nocturnal Animals, O.J.: Made in America, The Red Turtle, The Salesman, Silence, Star Trek Beyond, Suicide Squad, Sully, Tanna, 13th, 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, Toni Erdmann, Trolls, 20th Century Women, Zootopia
And HERE is my current WINNER breakdown:
9 Wins
La La Land
2 Wins
Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight
1 Win
Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, I Am Not Your Negro, Jackie, The Jungle Book, The Salesman, Star Trek Beyond, Zootopia
And that (whew) does it for now! You can rest assure I’ll be back shortly before the big ceremony to make final winner picks. Until then…
Well, here we are folks! After four months of (almost) weekly columns predicting the nominees and dozens of individualized Oscar Watch posts, the Academy Award nominations will be officially announced on Tuesday, January 24th around 8:30AM Eastern time. These are my final predictions. I’ve pontificated all year on who and what these nominees might be, so we’ll keep this simple. I’m listing my predicted nominees in each race as well as a first and second alternative. On Tuesday evening, I’ll have a post up recounting how I did.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
First Alternate: Nocturnal Animals
Second Alternate: Loving
Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Garth Davis, Lion
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
First Alternate: Martin Scorsese, Silence
Second Alternate: Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
First Alternate: Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
Second Alternate: Joel Edgerton, Loving
Best Actress
Amy Adams, Arrival
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
First Alternate: Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Second Alternate: Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
First Alternate: Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Second Alternate: Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
First Alternate: Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
Second Alternate: Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Lion
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
First Alternate: Hidden Figures
Second Alternate: Loving
Best Original Screenplay
Captain Fantastic
Hell or High Water
I, Daniel Blake
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
First Alternate: The Lobster
Second Alternate: Toni Erdmann
Best Animated Feature
Finding Dory
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
Zootopia
First Alternate: The Red Turtle
Second Alternate: The Little Prince
Best Documentary Feature
Cameraperson
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th
First Alternate: Gleason
Second Alternate: The Ivory Game
Best Foreign Language Film
The King’s Choice
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann
First Alternate: My Life as a Zucchini
Second Alternate: It’s Only the End of the World
Best Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
Silence
First Alternate: Lion
Second Alternate: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Costume Design
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
First Alternate: Silence
Second Alternate: Love & Friendship
Best Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
First Alternate: Lion
Second Alternate: Hell or High Water
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
Star Trek Beyond
First Alternate: A Man Called Ove
Second Alternate: Suicide Squad
Best Original Score
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
First Alternate: Jackie
Second Alternate: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Best Original Song
“Audition” from La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls
“City of Stars” from La La Land
“Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street
“How Far I’ll Go” from Moana
First Alternate: “Runnin” from Hidden Figures
Second Alternate: “Faith” from Sing
Best Production Design
Arrival
Jackie
La La Land
Nocturnal Animals
Silence
First Alternate: Hacksaw Ridge
Second Alternate: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Best Sound Editing
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
First Alternate: Sully
Second Alternate: The Jungle Book
Best Sound Mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Sully
First Alternate: Deepwater Horizon
Second Alternate: Deadpool
Best Visual Effects
Arrival
Doctor Strange
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
First Alternate: Deepwater Horizon
Second Alternate: The BFG
That gives yours truly the following nomination breakdown:
14 Nominations
La La Land
10 Nominations
Arrival
8 Nominations
Moonlight
7 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea
6 Nominations
Lion
5 Nominations
Hacksaw Ridge, Nocturnal Animals
4 Nominations
Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins
3 Nominations
Hell or High Water, Jackie, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Captain Fantastic, Moana, Silence, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
1 Nomination
Elle, I, Daniel Blake, Finding Dory, Kubo and the Two Strings, My Life as a Zucchini, Zootopia, Cameraperson, I Am Not Your Negro, Life, Animated, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, The King’s Choice, Land of Mine, A Man Called Ove, The Salesman, Toni Erdmann, Allied, Deadpool, Star Trek Beyond, Trolls, Sing Street, Deepwater Horizon, Sully, Doctor Strange, The Jungle Book
And there you have it – my FINAL (yikes) Oscar predictions! Check back on Tuesday for the postmortem.
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