Tag: Barbie

2023 Oscar Predictions: August 28th Edition

You could correctly call this Oscar Predictions post the calm before the festival storm as Venice kicks off this week with Telluride and Toronto right behind it. Yet a major development occurred last week as the sands of time are moving slower for Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two. The epic sequel was pushed back to the spring of 2024.

How big of an impact does that make for my forecasts? A heavy one as I had it achieving 11 nominations. In my previous projections on August 16th, that was second only to Oppenheimer‘s 12. I had it ranked 1st in Makeup and Hairstyling and Visual Effects, 2nd in Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound, 3rd in Picture and Director, and 4th for Adapted Screenplay.

In fact, a victory for Dune in Visual Effects was probably the easiest race to call this early (its predecessor won too). Now it makes the VE contest quite interesting. Oppenheimer could take the prize and mark Christopher Nolan’s second win in a row in the category after 2020’s Tenet. It opens the door wider for The Creator from Gareth Edwards. And there’s now more of a shot for the MCU to nab its first statue in VE for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 in particular.

I plan to do my next update on Labor Day (September 4th). By that time, we will have reviews and buzz from Venice premieres including Ferrari, Maestro, Poor Things, Priscilla, and The Killer. We’ll also have the word out for whatever pics debut at Telluride (to be announced Thursday).

Right after that update on the 4th, the rest of the Venice titles and a slew of Toronto movies will be unveiled. They include The Holdovers, Rustin, Dumb Money, Next Goal Wins, Society of the Snow, Origin, Pain Hustlers, Nyad, Lee, American Fiction, The Burial, and Hit Man.

In other words… it’s about to get really interesting, folks! I’m also dropping some titles that I’m just not sure are actually releasing in 2023 like The Piano Lesson. Obviously, it will re-enter the dance if there’s confirmation on a release this year. Questions persist about other ones. Is Long Day’s Journey Into Night happening before December 31st? Is Shirley or Freud’s Last Session? Will other currently scheduled releases pull a Dune? The answer is likely affirmative.

With the Dune shift, Air moves back into my BP 10 and Bradley Cooper (Maestro) is in Director over Denis Villeneuve. In non-Dune related shifts, Sandra Huller is now #1 in Actress over The Color Purple‘s Fantasia Barrino. Charles Melton from May December hits my Supporting Actor five over Willem Dafoe (Poor Things).

You can read all the movement below and my next update with the Venice buzz arrives in a week!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Maestro (PR: 5) (E)

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)

10. Air (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Saltburn (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)

15. Ferrari (PR: 16) (+1)

16. The Killer (PR: 17) (+1)

17. May December (PR: 20) (+3)

18. Asteroid City (PR: 18) (E)

19. One Life (PR: 21) (+2)

20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 19) (-1)

21. Rustin (PR: 24) (+3)

22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (E)

23. Dumb Money (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

25. The Book of Clarence (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

The Piano Lesson

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)

7. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: 15) (+2)

14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)

15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 10) (E)

11. Caille Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (E)

12. Aunjanue Ellis, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Helen Mirren, Golda

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)

5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (E)

10. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (E)

12. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (-1)

14. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)

9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (E)

11. Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life (PR: 11) (E)

12. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Niecy Nash-Betts, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)

3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Air (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. May December (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Fair Play (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)

11. Napoleon (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)

15. A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)

8. One Life (PR: 9) (+1)

9. BlackBerry (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (E)

13. Dumb Money (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Killer (PR: 15) (+1)

15. All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

The Piano Lesson

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)

3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Taste of Things (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Monster (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)

9. La Chimera (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

El Conde

The Delinquents

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nimona (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Robot Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: 9) (E)

10. They Shot the Piano Player (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)

3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)

4. Every Body (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 6) (E)

7. Orlando, A Political Biography (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wild Life (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Deepest Breath (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Black Ice

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Poor Things (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Napoleon (PR: 5) (+2)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. Chevalier (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (E)

8. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Priscilla (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Air (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Killer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ferrari (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Barbie (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Golda (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked

10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Wonka

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Elemental (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Killer (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+4)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)

10. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Poor Things

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)

4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities

6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Napoleon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ferrari (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Barbie

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Creator (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Rebel Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wonka (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Little Mermaid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Killers of the Flower Moon

Blue Beetle

That means I’m predicting the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

8 Nominations

Barbie, Maestro

7 Nominations

The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things

5 Nominations

Napoleon

4 Nominations

Air, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest

2 Nominations

Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Rustin, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, The Killer, May December, Monster, Nimona, Rebel Moon, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol

August 25-27 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (08/23): I’ve downgraded my Turismo prediction from $24.3M to $19.3M.

The month of August closes out with a trio of new titles and National Cinema Day happening on Sunday with ticket prices at $4 in thousands of theaters. The Playstation based racing drama Gran Turismo, faith-based baseball drama The Hill, and Liam Neeson’s action thriller Retribution premiere and you can access my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Gran Turismo Box Office Prediction
The Hill Box Office Prediction
Retribution Box Office Prediction

With high familiarity for the video game source material and decent enough reviews, Gran Turismo should place first with a mid 20s haul. The National Cinema Day bargain prices on Sunday could push this to grosses similar to what Blue Beetle made in its opening.

Speaking of Beetle, it may drop from first to third in its sophomore frame after a poor start (more on that below). That’s because Barbie should see a smaller decline and remain in second.

As for other holdovers, Oppenheimer and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem should each ease a spot to fourth and fifth.

That’s because I don’t envision The Hill or Retribution hitting the top five. The former could exceed my forecast if it breaks through with Christian audiences. I have it at $3.3 million. With Retribution, I see no compelling reason why it wouldn’t open on pace with recent Neeson pics and that’d mean an opening of just over $3 million. I’ll go a tad less with $2.4 million.

Here’s how I see that high five playing out:

1. Gran Turismo

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million

2. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $16.5 million

3. Blue Beetle

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

Box Office Results (August 18-20)

Good news and bad news for Warner Bros as Barbie became the studio’s largest domestic earner of all time over 2008’s The Dark Knight. Obviously that’s the good news.

WB saw Barbie‘s four-week reign atop the charts by the WB’s Blue Beetle. Yet that’s kinda the bad news because its $25 million beginning is the lowest in the decade plus history of the DCU. It did manage to barely top my $23.7 million take, but it’s still a subpar start.

As for Barbie, it was second with $21 million. That’s just under my $22.5 million projection as its $566 million total set for the aforementioned record.

Oppenheimer was third with $10.7 million compared to my $12.7 million estimate for a five-week tally of $285 million.

Fourth place belonged to Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem with $8.5 million (I said $9.2 million) for $88 million in three weeks.

Rounding out the top five in disappointing fashion was Strays. The R rated comedy featuring Will Ferrell and Jamie Foxx voicing dirty dogs tanked with $8.2 million. I was kinder at $13.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your preferred streaming platform. Until next time…

2023 Oscar Predictions: August 16th Edition

It’s looking like Netflix is going all in on Bradley Cooper’s Maestro being their main contender for awards love in 2023. With its first trailer out this week, the biopic is the biggest riser in Best Picture. Additionally, Carey Mulligan joins the Best Actress field with Annette Bening (Nyad) falling out.

Supporting Actress also sees a change as Viola Davis (Air) is back in over Rosamud Pike for Saltburn. It’s not a good update for Emerald Fennell’s sophomore feature as it also drops from BP with Poor Things returning.

In another significant development, Cillian Murphy’s work in Oppenheimer rises to #1 in Best Actor for the first time over Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon).

You can expect one more update at month’s end before the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto festivals arrive and dramatically reshape the race. That’s where we’ll catch our first glimpses and see first reactions to many contenders. They include Maestro, Poor Things, Rustin, The Killer, Ferrari, Priscilla, El Conde, Dumb Money, Nyad, Lee, One Life, Next Goal Wins, and more.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maestro (PR: 8) (+3)

6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Saltburn (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Air (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)

14. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Ferrari (PR: 18) (+2)

17. The Killer (PR: 16) (-1)

18. Asteroid City (PR: 19) (+1)

19. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+1)

20. May December (PR: 17) (-3)

21. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (+1)

23. The Piano Lesson (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Rustin (PR: 21) (-3)

25. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bob Marley: One Love

Priscilla

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (E)

13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)

14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)

15. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wes Anderson, Asteroid City

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (E)

13. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)

15. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Emily Blunt, Pain Hustlers

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)

5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (E)

11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (E)

14. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)

9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Helena Bonham Carter, One Life (PR: 13) (+2)

1.2 Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12 ) (-1)

14. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Audra McDonald, Rustin

America Ferrera, Barbie

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)

7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)

8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (E)

9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Glynn Turman, Rustin

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Saltburn (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Air (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Fair Play (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Rustin (PR: 10 (E)

11. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-2)

12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 15) (+3)

13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 11) (-2)

14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)

15. A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bob Marley: One Love

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-3)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. BlackBerry (PR: 10) (+2)

9. One Life (PR: 14) (+5)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9) (-2)

12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)

14. The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Killer (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Ferrari

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)

3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)

4. Monster (PR: 4) (E)

5.The Taste of Things (formerly The Pot-Au-Feu) (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fallen Leaves (PR: 8) (+1)

8. El Conde (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Delinquents (PR: 9) (E)

10. La Chimera (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Nimona (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Robot Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)

3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Every Body (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wild Life (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Black Ice (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Kokomo City

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 10) (+6)

5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Poor Things (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Killer (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Chevalier (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Ferrari (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Killer (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saltburn

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Glaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Priscilla (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Golda (PR: 8) (E)

9. Beau is Afraid (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Color Purple

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Napoleon

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+5)

5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)

7. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Maestro (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+6)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Creator (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)

7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wonka (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blue Beetle (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Barbie

That means I’m projecting these numbers of nominations for these films:

12 Nominations

Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

7 Nominations

Barbie, Maestro

6 Nominations

The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things

5 Nominations

The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon

2 Nominations

Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, Ferrari, May December, Monster, Priscilla, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

August 18-20 Box Office Predictions

The DCEU hopes to halt a string of disappointments with Blue Beetle while Strays features the vocal canine stylings of Will Ferrell and Jamie Foxx. Both pics will attempt to dethrone Barbie after four weeks on top. My individual prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

Blue Beetle Box Office Prediction
Strays Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros and DC Comics have seen some underwhelming returns as of late with Black Adam, Shazam! Fury of the Gods, and this summer’s mega flop The Flash. I don’t anticipate their fortunes will turn with Beetle. A best case scenario might be $30 million. My projection below $25 million does give it an ever so slight edge over Barbie (which I see falling in the mid 30s in its fifth outing). Yet I doubt WB/DC will be bragging.

As for Strays, the R-rated comedy might have benefitted from Ferrell and Foxx hitting the promotion circuit. With the SAG-AFTRA strike, that’s not an option. This genre has struggled in recent years anyway. My low to mid teens take puts it in third with a start similar to No Hard Feelings from a few weeks back.

Oppenheimer and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem should fill out the rest of the top five and here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Blue Beetle

Predicted Gross: $23.7 million

2. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $22.5 million

3. Strays

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million

4. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million

Box Office Results (August 11-13)

The summer phenomenon that is Barbenheimer returned to rule the charts with Barbie leading the way. In its fourth frame, it took in $33.8 million and that’s good for the ninth best fourth weekend in history. It’s also a touch higher than my $30.4 million forecast as it climbed to $526 million overall.

Oppenheimer returned to the runner-up slot with $18.8 million, on target with my $19 million take. Christopher Nolan’s epic was down only 35% and it’s up to $264 million.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem rose from fourth to third with $15.2 million in its sophomore weekend. My prediction? $15.2 million! The acclaimed animated reboot has made $72 million.

As anticipated, Meg 2: The Trench suffered the heftiest drop of the holdovers (57%). Falling from second to fourth, the shark sequel grossed $12.8 million (I said $12 million) to bring its tally to $54 million. On the brighter side, it’s making a killing overseas like its 2018 predecessor.

Finally, The Last Voyage of the Demeter bombed in fifth with $6.5 million. Dubbed the “Dracula on a Boat” movie, audiences weren’t intrigued as it premiered on pace with my $6.4 million projection. With a B- Cinemascore, looking for it to sink even further next weekend.

And that does it for now, folks! Check out my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your favorite listening stream. Until next time…

August 11-13 Box Office Predictions

The box office bonanza that is Barbenheimer looks to return to the 1-2 positions as waterlogged horror entry The Last Voyage of the Demeter is the only newcomer this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The Last Voyage of the Demeter Box Office Prediction

Demeter may struggle to make de-money (I apologize). Besides the rather bad title, I’m not seeing this have much bite with genre fans. My mid single digits projection puts it in fifth… distantly.

Barbie should have no trouble maintaining the top spot for the fourth weekend in a row. After scoring the 11th largest third frame in domestic history, my $30M+ take gives it the 11th best fourth outing.

Oppenheimer looks to have the slightest decline of the returnees (perhaps mid 30s) and that could mean a bump from 3rd to 2nd.

That’s because current #2 Meg 2: The Trench seems poised for the heftiest dip. Its B- Cinemascore grade (compared to its predecessor’s B+) could mean a 60% plummet after its solid premiere (more on that below).

The second weekend for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (with its A Cinemascore grade) should be rosier with a mid 40s percent downgrade. If that occurs, the crimefighting reptiles might jump to 3rd with Meg in fourth.

Here’s how I see it all playing out:

1. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $30.4 million

2. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $19 million

3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million

4. Meg 2: The Trench

Predicted Gross: $12 million

5. The Last Voyage of the Demeter

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

Box Office Results (August 4-6)

I underestimated the giant shark sequel and overestimated the green that the animated reboot would make in respect to Meg 2 and Turtles. As expected, neither came anywhere close to catching Barbie.

The summer smash added another $53 million to its considerable coffers. While that’s under my take of $60.4 million, the $459 domestic cume is astonishing. It also crossed $1 billion worldwide.

Meg 2: The Trench bit off $30 million in second place. That’s well under the $45 million achieved by its predecessor five years back, but ahead of my $24.5 million forecast. The sequel, like the original, will make the bulk of its bucks overseas.

Oppenheimer was third with $29.1 million, right on track with my $29.3 million projection. The acclaimed biopic has amassed $228 million in three weeks.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem generally opened in line with expectations at $28 million from Friday to Sunday and $43 million since its Wednesday bow. I thought it might exceed those numbers and went with $36.1 million and $51.2 million, respectively.

Finally, Haunted Mansion played to empty houses in weekend #2 with a 62% fall in fifth to $9.2 million (I said $11.4 million). The tepid two-week tally is $42 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Keep an eye on the blog this week for my prediction posts on Blue Beetle and Strays and listen to my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your preferred streaming platform…

2023 Oscar Predictions: August 2nd Edition

The box office and critical phenomenon known as Barbenheimer looms large over my first August Oscar predictions. I toyed with moving Oppenheimer and its maker Christopher Nolan to the #1 spots in BP and Director. They sit in second with Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon clinging to the top. On the other hand, Robert Downey Jr.’s work in Oppenheimer is now first over Robert De Niro from Killers.

Meanwhile, I have finally put Barbie in my ten BP contenders and that takes out Air. While it materializes in the big race, I’m still keeping Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie out of Director and Actress, respectively.

We are a month away from the triumvirate of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. They will undoubtedly shape and alter what you read below. Here’s where I believe it stands right now.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maestro (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Barbie (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Poor Things (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Air (PR: 9) (-3)

13. The Holdovers (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Napoleon (PR: 15) (E)

16. The Killer (PR: 21) (+5)

17. May December (PR: 15) (-1)

18. Ferrari (PR: 22) (+4)

19. Asteroid City (PR: 17) (-2)

20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 18) (-2)

21. Rustin (PR: 19) (-2)

22. The Piano Lesson (PR: 20) (-2)

23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+1)

24. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

BlackBerry

The Book of Clarence

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5 (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (E)

12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (E)

13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)

14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)

15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (E)

13. Emily Blunt, Pain Hustlers (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)

15. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Judy Greer, Eric Larue

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+4)

8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)

10. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 11) (E)

12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (E)

13. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 7) (-7)

15. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

David Strathairn, A Little Prayer

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)

10. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)

11. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

14. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (-1)

4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)

8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 11) (E)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Matt Bomer, Maestro

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saltburn (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)

4. Air (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Napoleon (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Rustin (PR: 9) (-1)

11. The Book of Clarence (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Fair Play (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Drive Away Dolls

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (E)

9. Next Goal Wins (PR: 13) (+4)

10. BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)

11. The Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (+1)

12. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (-2)

13. The Killer (PR: 11) (-2)

14. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dumb Money

Freud’s Last Session

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)

3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Monster (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Pot-Au-Feu (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (E)

7. El Conde (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Fallen Leaves (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)

10. La Chimera (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Perfect Days

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nimona (PR: 6) (E)

7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Robot Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)

3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 6) (+3)

4. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 4) (E)

5. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Every Body (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Eternal Memory (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Wild Life (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Kokomo City (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Black Ice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

It Ain’t Over

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Killer (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Poor Things (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Ferrari (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Chevalier (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wonka (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Air (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Killer (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Napoleon

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Barbie (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Priscilla (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Golda (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (E)

10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)

5. Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Killer (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Poor Things

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Napoleon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ferrari (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Creator (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wonka (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Poor Things

Spaceman

That equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

8 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

The Color Purple, Past Lives

6 Nominations

Poor Things

4 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest

3 Nominations

Maestro

2 Nominations

Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, About Dry Grasses, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Ferrari, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songsbirds and Snakes, May December, Monster, The Mother of All Lies, Nyad, The Pot-Au-Feu, Rustin, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

August 4-6 Box Office Predictions

Pizza loving reptilian crimefighters are back and a giant shark wreaks havoc on humans and animals (again) as Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem and Meg 2: The Trench open wide this week. You can peruse my detailed predictions posts on the newcomers here:

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem Box Office Prediction
Meg 2: The Trench Box Office Prediction

Turtles is getting the best reviews of any picture in the 30 year plus franchise as the animated reboot opens on Wednesday. With positive buzz and a healthy nostalgia factor, mid to high 30s over the traditional weekend and a five-day haul topping $50 million appears to be an achievable level of green.

The competition from Donatello, Michelangelo, Raphael, and Leonardo could hurt Meg 2 a tad. While the 2018 original premiered with $45 million, a mid 20s gross might be all that the sequel bites off.

This means the newbies may lag behind Barbie (for Turtles) and Oppenheimer (for Trench). Greta Gerwig’s take on the iconic doll should easily spend a third weekend atop the charts after a magnificent sophomore hold (more on that below). Oppenheimer could approach nearly $30 million in its third go-round.

Following a lackluster start, Disney’s Haunted Mansion should see a dip of at least 50% for fifth place.

Here’s how I see the pieces falling into place:

1. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $60.4 million

2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Predicted Gross: $36.1 million (Friday to Sunday); $51.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

3. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $29.3 million

4. Meg 2: The Trench

Predicted Gross: $24.5 million

5. Haunted Mansion

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

Box Office Results (July 28-30)

As mentioned, Barbie was nothing to toy with in its second outing as the phenomenon made off with $93 million (ahead of my $82.6 million prediction). That’s the seventh largest sophomore weekend in box office history between The Avengers and The Super Mario Bros. Movie. My estimate above, incidentally, gives it the seventh best third frame.

Barbie only fell 43% and the same was true for Oppenheimer in second. Christopher Nolan’s Oscar contender took in $46.7 million, reaching a bit higher than my $43.8 million take. The three hour biopic has amassed $174 million thus far.

The Mouse House had another disappointment with Haunted Mansion. With mediocre reviews and scant chatter, the family fright flick was third with $24 million compared to my slightly better $25.4 million projection. Look for it to fade quickly.

Sound of Freedom was fourth with $12.8 million (I said $14.7 million) as the season’s sleeper hit is up to $149 million.

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One rounded out the top five with $10.6 million. My call? $10.6 million! In three weeks, the Tom Cruise sequel has underwhelmed with $139 million.

Finally, A24’s acclaimed low-budget horror pic Talk to Me was a robust sixth with $10.4 million. That’s well beyond my meager guesstimate of $3.6 million. Lesson learned – bet the over on this genre.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 28-30 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (07/26): A rather low reported 1900 screen count for Talk to Me has lowered my estimate from $4.8 million to $3.6 million. That likely leaves it outside of the top six.

After a historic box office weekend, July closes out with a pair of new releases in Disney’s Haunted Mansion and A24’s critically acclaimed Talk to Me. Neither are likely to dislodge the potent 1-2 punch of Barbenheimer. My detailed prediction posts on the newbies are here:

Haunted Mansion Box Office Prediction
Talk to Me Box Office Prediction

I don’t really see audiences clamoring for a fresh spin on Haunted Mansion (nearly 20 years after the one with Eddie Murphy) and buzz seems light. Family crowds should get it to a ho-hum mid 20s gross and that would place it in third.

Even if it made $30-35 million, that wouldn’t mean top two. Those spots are reserved for Barbie and Oppenheimer after their amazing starts (more on that below). The question is how far each dips in weekend #2.

For Barbie, the event status that it took on makes it somewhat naturally front loaded. A worst case decline might be around 55-60%. Considering the A Cinemascore grade and chance for repeat business, I’ll say 45-50% is more feasible and that means low to possibly mid 80s.

Oppenheimer also nabbed an A Cinemascore grade and perhaps some adult viewers are content for the IMAX screenings to be a bit less packed. I’ll say it doesn’t quite fall 50% with a take of over $40 million.

Sound of Freedom should continue its meager percentage decreases while Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One hopes to right the ship after a turbulent two weeks. They should place fourth and fifth, respectively.

While Talk to Me is generating impressive reviews, this could be the type of A24 elevated horror experience that doesn’t bring genre fans out in droves. A lot of them just got their fright fix with Insidious: The Red Door as well.

And with that, here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:

1. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $82.6 million

2. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $43.8 million

3. Haunted Mansion

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million

4. Sound of Freedom

Predicted Gross: $14.7 million

5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

Box Office Results (July 21-23)

Racking up the fourth highest financial frame in history, Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer gave us the best weekend in over four years.

Barbie captured the zeitgeist and an especially sizable female audience to the tune of $162 million, right on pace with my $160.8 million prediction. That’s the best three-day opening of 2023 and my hunch is that it will remain so. It’s also the #1 premiere for a female directed feature and 20th overall.

Oppenheimer gave Mr. Nolan his personal best third start (after The Dark Knight Rises and The Dark Knight). Blasting beyond my $65.3 million estimate, the three-hour Oscar contender amassed $82.4 million for an astonishing runner-up showing. Those packed IMAX screenings didn’t hurt.

Sound of Freedom was third as it continued its low declines with $19.8 million, just below my $21 million projection. The brilliantly marketed action thriller sits at $124 million.

And this is where the good news stops. Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning, after a less than expected opening, had a free fall from 1st to 4th. The Barbenheimer phenomenon helped it plummet 65% to $19.3 million compared to my $25.5 million call. The ten-day tally is $118 million.

Indiana Jones and the Dial Destiny and Insidious: The Red Door were fifth and sixth, respectively. Each made $6.6 million. Indy‘s four-week earnings are at $158 million while Insidious‘s three-week bounty is $71 million.

I incorrectly had Elemental in fifth, but it was seventh with $5.7 million (I said $6.7 million) for $137 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

2023 Oscar Predictions: July 22nd Edition

It is the weekend of “Barbenheimer” as Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer are posting fantastic results at the box office. With their review embargoes lifted, the always to be inextricably linked pics have established themselves as Oscar players.

When I did my previous predictions two weeks ago, one of the questions centered on which performers could be singled out for recognition. Obviously we knew about Cillian Murphy and Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling’s supporting turn, but what else? The answer it seems is Robert Downey Jr. and Emily Blunt for Oppenheimer and maybe America Ferrera for Barbie. Matt Damon is still worth mentioning for Oppenheimer, but Downey Jr. clearly has the most significant buzz.

And… surprise! This is the first write-up where I am including all races covering feature-length motion pictures. I do so at a precarious time. While “Barbenheimer” is viable in many competitions, the release calendar for the remainder of 2023 is unpredictable.

That is, of course, due to the SAG-AFTRA strike and a fear that it could drag on for weeks or months. On Friday, Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers gave up its prime spot opening the Venice Film Festival and moved from September to April 2024. If you believe it’ll be the last movie to do so, think again. There’s already rumors that Dune: Part Two and/or The Color Purple (two potential heavy hitters) could move to ’24. I am keeping all currently scheduled titles in the mix until I hear different. Just know that some of the projects listed below may not be here for long.

Sometimes a trailer can either boost your hopes for a film’s awards potential or dilute it. I could be wrong, but Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers is an example of the latter when its first look was revealed this week. Soon enough we’ll see if my first impression was on the money.

For these initial projections covering all races, I’ll keep it at 25 possibilities for BP and 15 for the other top of the line derbies (the four acting ones and two screenplay contests). For all others, I will list my top 10.

With all that said, let’s get into it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-1)

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Air (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Maestro (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Barbie (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Poor Things (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-6)

15. Napoleon (PR: 16) (+1)

16. May December (PR: 15) (-1)

17. Asteroid City (PR: 18) (+1)

18. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Rustin (PR: 21) (+2)

20. The Piano Lesson (PR: 19) (-1)

21. The Killer (PR: 25) (+4)

22. Ferrari (PR: 24) (+2)

23. BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)

24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (-1)

25. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Challengers

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-4)

14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Ben Affleck, Air

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)

15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Zendaya, Challengers

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)

10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

14. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Andre Holland, The Actor

Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-3)

12. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Florence Pugh, Oppenheimer

Tilda Swinton, The Killer

Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love

Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Jesse Plemons, Killers. of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Richard E. Grant, Saltburn

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saltburn (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Air (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Rustin (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Napoleon (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Drive Away Dolls (PR: 13) (+2)

12. The Book of Clarence (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Fair Play (PR: 11) (-3)

15. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Challengers

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Barbie (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (E)

9. BlackBerry (PR: 14) (+5)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

11. The Killer (PR: 15) (+4)

12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Next Goal Wins (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Freud’s Last Session (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest

2. Anatomy of a Fall

3. Monster

4. About Dry Grasses

5. The Pot-au-Feu

Other Possibilities:

6. The Boy and the Heron

7. Perfect Days

8. The Delinquents

9. Fallen Leaves

10. La Chimera

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2. The Boy and the Heron

3. Elemental

4. Wish

5. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Other Possibilities:

6. Nimona

7. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

8. Robot Dreams

9. The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol

10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia

2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

3. The Eternal Memory

4. The Mother of All Lies

5. Wild Life

Other Possibilities:

6. 20 Days in Mariupol

7. Every Body

8. Kokomo City

9. Black Ice

10. It Ain’t Over

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Napoleon

5. The Color Purple

Other Possibilities:

6. The Killer

7. Poor Things

8. The Zone of Interest

9. Ferrari

10. Asteroid City

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie

2. Dune: Part Two

3. The Color Purple

4. Poor Things

5. Killers of the Flower Moon

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon

7. Chevalier

8. Oppenheimer

9. Wonka

10. Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Oppenheimer

4. Past Lives

5. Air

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple

7. Saltburn

8. Maestro

9. The Killer

10. Napoleon

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Poor Things

3. Maestro

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

5. Barbie

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon

7. Golda

8. Beau is Afraid

9. The Color Purple

10. Priscilla

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Dune: Part Two

4. Elemental

5. Past Lives

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

8. Napoleon

9. The Zone of Interest

10. The Killer

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from “The Color Purple”

2. “The Wish” from Wish

3. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

4. “Just Ken” from Barbie

5. TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Other Possibilities:

6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady

7. “Steal the Show” from Elemental

8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie

9. “Quiet Eyes” From Past Lives

10. “Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Oppenheimer

4. Poor Things

5. Napoleon

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie

7. Asteroid City

8. The Zone of Interest

9. The Color Purple

10. Wonka

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Napoleon

4. Killers of the Flower Moon

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Other Possibilities:

6. Ferrari

7. The Color Purple

8. Maestro

9. The Zone of Interest

10. The Killer

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Oppenheimer

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

4. The Creator

5. Wonka

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon

7. Killers of the Flower Moon

8. Poor Things

9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

10. Spaceman

And that, ladies and gents, gives us the following number of nominations for these pictures:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

8 Nominations

The Color Purple

7 Nominations

Past Lives

6 Nominations

Barbie

5 Nominations

Poor Things

4 Nominations

Air, Anatomy of a Fall

3 Nominations

Maestro, Napoleon, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest

2 Nominations

Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

About Dry Grasses, The Boy and the Heron, Beyond Utopia, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, Long Day’s Journey Into Night, May December, Monster, The Mother of All Lies, The Pot-au-Feu, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wild Life, Wonka

Oscar Predictions: They Cloned Tyrone

Mixing sci-fi, comedy, and government conspiracies, Juel Taylor’s directorial debut They Cloned Tyrone arrives on Netflix tomorrow. It premiered at the American Black Film Festival last month to glowing reviews and that has continued to the tune of a 98% Rotten Tomatoes rating. John Boyega, Teyonah Parris, Jamie Foxx, David Alan Grier, and Kiefer Sutherland star.

Despite the acclaim, its premiere seems a tad inconspicuous. It might not help that it is streaming in the same frame as the Barbie and Oppenheimer unveilings. However, a limited theatrical output last weekend does make it Academy eligible.

If Netflix were to mount a serious campaign for Original Screenplay (penned by the director and Tony Rettenmaier), perhaps Tyrone could be called up there. I’m guessing the streamer will be focused on different campaigns. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…