Tag: Barbie

30th SAG Awards Winner Predictions

The 30th SAG Awards air this Saturday and they are rightly viewed as an often reliable barometer for the Oscars, especially in the acting derbies. The biggest prize honors the strongest ensemble and that’s a less reliable match with Best Picture. Over the past 10 ceremonies, the correlation has been 5 out of 10 and that includes the last two shows with CODA and Everything Everywhere All at Once.

On the other hand, it was four for four in Actress, Actor, and the supporting competitions last year. That also holds true for 2021.

Sunday’s program could solidify frontrunner statuses for Actress/Actor hopefuls and further potential sweeps for the supporting players. Let’s walk through all 6 categories with a winner and runner-up selection.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

You have to go back to the second SAG Awards and The Birdcage to find a nominee that wasn’t an Oscar BP nominee so you can cross The Color Purple out immediately. My hunch is this comes down to Barbenheimer. We know that Oppenheimer is the overwhelming favorite for the Academy’s BP. However, Barbie could legitimately pick this up. This is a close call and I wouldn’t totally rule out Fiction. Yet the fact is that Oppenheimer might be strong enough to nab this one in addition to all the other precursors.

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Barbie

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

This is where Gladstone could make the Oscar race a nail biter. Stone has taken Critics Choice and BAFTA. If she gets the victory at SAG, she’ll become the easy favorite. Arguably a coin flip, but I’m sensing Stone gets it.

Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things

Runner-Up: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Read what I said about Female Actor in a Leading Role. In this race, Cillian Murphy is Emma Stone. Paul Giamatti is Lily Gladstone (except Giamatti took Critics Choice). Murphy could achieve frontrunner status or Giamatti could make it a jump ball. I’m projecting the latter.

Predicted Winner: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Penélope Cruz (Ferrari), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Randolph has been the victor everywhere important and I don’t see SAG interrupting her sweep.

Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie)

Read what I said about Female Actor in a Supporting Role. Robert Downey Jr. is Da’Vine Joy Randolph.

Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick: Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning

The sequel heavy lineup marks the first nomination for a John Wick pic. Some prognosticators are going with it, but I’m forecasting the Mission series (in its third try) pulls through.

Predicted Winner: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning

Runner-Up: John Wick: Chapter 4

That means the tally goes like this:

2 Wins

The Holdovers, Oppenheimer

1 Win

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Poor Things

I’ll have a recap up after the show this weekend!

35th PGA Awards Winner Predictions

A weekend of precursors culminates on Sunday with the 35th PGA Awards. The 10 nominees in the top race at PGA happen to match the 10 that Oscar put up in Best Picture. There’s two other categories to consider with animated fare and docs. I will walk through all three with a winner prediction and a runner-up possibility.

Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures

Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Let’s not make this complicated, shall we? Oppenheimer should have no trouble taking this as it’s taken all key precursors. 7 of the last 10 PGA victors have ended up as the Academy’s BP (the last diversion was 2019 when 1917 took PGA and Parasite was BP).

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Barbie

Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

The Boy and the Heron has made this category one to watch with Globe and BAFTA trophies. That being said, I think Spidey has the edge with PGA.

Predicted Winner: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron

Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, The Disappearance of Shere Hite, The Mother of All Lies, Smoke Sauna Sisterhood, Squaring the Circle (The Story of Hipgnosis)

Mariupol has cleaned up on its way to a likely Oscar victory and it should emerge here.

Predicted Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol

Runner-Up: American Symphony

I’ll have a recap up on the blog after the show on Sunday!

77th BAFTA Awards Reaction

The top races went as I anticipated at the 77th BAFTA Awards while other races were a bit more unpredictable. That’s pretty much par for the course with the British equivalent of the Oscars as I went 13/23 (oof) in my selections.

Let’s start with Oppenheimer. As expected, Christopher Nolan’s epic took Best Film and its maker is your Best Director. Some prognosticators had this pegged for a record setting 10 BAFTAs. I had it winning 8 and it took 7. In addition to Film and Director, I correctly called Cillian Murphy in Actor, Robert Downey Jr. in Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Editing, and Original Score. I still believe Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers poses a threat to Murphy with the Academy (especially if he manages to win SAG). Oppenheimer should take those other BAFTA trophies a little less than a month away at the Oscars.

I incorrectly had Oppenheimer taking Best Sound. It instead went to The Zone of Interest. The Holocaust drama had a solid day with a victory in Best Film Not in the English Language over my predicted Anatomy of a Fall and for Outstanding British Film over my pick of Poor Things.

Despite the Poor miss in that category, it was honored with a handful of prizes. Emma Stone is your Best Actress and it won Costume Design, Makeup & Hair (over my Maestro call), Production Design, and Special Visual Effects (over my Napoleon pick).

The Holdovers was a double recipient for Supporting Actress with Da’Vine Joy Randolph and Casting (I went with All of Us Strangers instead).

Those four (Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest, The Holdovers) were the only features with two victories or more. Here’s what else I got right: Anatomy of a Fall in Original Screenplay (which certainly helps its Oscar chances) and 20 Days in Mariupol for Documentary (same story).

In Adapted Screenplay, it was American Fiction continuing to make the case for Academy gold with a surprise win over Poor Things and my runner-up Oppenheimer.

The Boy and the Heron, as it did at the Globes, is Best Animated Feature over Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. I went with Spidey and there could be a real showdown on March 10th.

Earth Mama is the Outstanding British Debut by a Writer, Director or Producer over the favored How to Have Sex while the lead in Sex (Mia McKenna-Bruce) is the Rising Star over Jacob Elordi (who I picked).

Some overall takeaways that shouldn’t surprise: Oppenheimer is still the overwhelming choice for BP as it’s winning everywhere it needs to. Same goes for Nolan and Downey Jr.

Randolph is bascially a lock for Supporting Actress while Emma Stone helped herself today over stiff competition from Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall. Some noteworthy pics that didn’t take a single award: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Maestro.

Keep an eye on the blog for all Oscar speculation as we approach the big show!

Oscars: The Case of Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our third performer in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

Chaplin (Actor, 1992); Tropic Thunder (Supporting Actor, 2008)

The Case for Robert Downey Jr.:

It could be considered the capper for one of the most remarkable comeback stories in Hollywood history. In the mid 90s, Downey Jr.’s career appeared over due to drug abuse and legal woes. By 2008, he was starting run as star of the biggest franchise of all time with the MCU and multiple appearances as Tony Stark in the Iron Man and Avengers series. His role as the scheming AEC Chairman Lewis Strauss in Christopher Nolan’s epic biopic has swept the season thus far at the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. SAG is likely to follow suit next weekend. This could be seen as a career achievement prize and his peers are probably eager to give it to him (similar to Jamie Lee Curtis last year in Everything Everywhere All at Once).

The Case Against Robert Downey Jr.:

Frankly, it’s difficult to come up with one. Maybe the voters will look at Supporting Actor as a place to honor Barbie and give it to Ryan Gosling. The same logic could apply to Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things or Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon.

The Verdict:

At this point, anything other than a Downey Jr. victory would be a significant upset.

My Case Of posts will continue with the direction of Christopher Nolan in Oppenheimer…

Oscars: The Case of America Ferrera in Barbie

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our third performer in Best Supporting Actress and that’s America Ferrera in Barbie. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for America Ferrera:

Every performer wants that obvious Oscar clip and Ferrera has it playing Gloria as the single ma tells the challenges of being a woman. That speech likely propelled the Globe, SAG, and Emmy winner for TV’s Ugly Betty to her first Academy nod. Alongside fellow nominee Ryan Gosling, she was singled out for plaudits in Greta Gerwig’s billion plus grossing phenomenon. A Critics Choice mention preceded this.

The Case Against America Ferrera:

Ferrera didn’t make the cut at SAG, BAFTA, and the Globes (unlike Gosling) and the acting branch didn’t recognize lead Margot Robbie. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) has won the key precursors so far and stands as the favorite.

The Verdict:

I wouldn’t bet on Ferrera making a speech from the podium on March 10th.

My Case Of posts will continue with Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer…

77th BAFTA Winner Predictions

Sunday brings the 77th BAFTA Awards as we look for further clues to the pictures and performers who will emerge victorious at the Oscars next month. Oppenheimer leads the pack with 13 nominations (the same number as its Academy haul) with Poor Things in second with 11 (also matching numbers wise with its American counterpart).

For each race, I’m giving you a predicted winner with a runner-up. I’ll have a recap on the blog with my takeaways following the ceremony!

Film

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Director

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

Predicted Winner: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Is there one?? Let’s just say Glazer

Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things

Runner-Up: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Teo Yoo (Past Lives)

Predicted Winner: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)

Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Original Screenplay

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives

Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

Runner-Up: The Holdovers

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Oppenheimer

Animated Feature

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Winner: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron

Documentary

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!

Predicted Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol

Runner-Up: Beyond Utopia

Film Not in the English Language

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

Casting

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Killers of the Flower Moon

Predicted Winner: All of Us Strangers

Runner-Up: The Holdovers

Cinematography

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Costume Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Barbie

Editing

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Make-Up & Hair

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Maestro

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Original Score

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

Production Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Barbie

Sound

Nominees: Ferrari, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

Special Visual Effects

Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Napoleon

Runner-Up: The Creator

Outstanding British Film

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, Napoleon, The Old Oak, Poor Things, Rye Lane, Saltburn, Scrapper, Wonka, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Nominees: Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Earth Mama, How to Have Sex, Is There Anybody Out There?

Predicted Winner: How to Have Sex

Runner-Up: Bobi Wine: The People’s President

Rising Star

Nominees: Phoebe Dynevor, Ayo Edebiri, Jacob Elordi, Mia McKenna-Bruce, Sophia Wilde

Predicted Winner: Jacob Elordi

Runner-Up: Mia McKenna-Bruce

That works out to these numbers of victories for these pictures:

8 Wins

Oppenheimer

5 Wins

Poor Things

2 Wins

Anatomy of a Fall

1 Win

20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, The Holdovers, Maestro, Napoleon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

76th DGA Awards Winner Predictions

The 76th DGA Awards take place this Saturday and it’s a key indication to which filmmaker will emerge with the Oscar for direction. How much so? 9 out of the previous 10 DGA recipients have taken the Academy’s gold. The only deviation in the last ten years is Sam Mendes (1917) winning DGA while Bong Joon-Ho was victorious on Oscar night.

There is usually a 4 out of 5 match between DGA and Oscar nominees in the big race. 2023 diverted from that. There are just 3 DGA contenders vying for the Academy prize: Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Greta Gerwig (Barbie) and Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) are up for DGA while Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) look for Academy love.

Let’s walk through that contest as well as the ones for Documentaries and First-Time Feature Film with predictions for the winner and a runner-up selection.

Feature Film

Nominees: Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Even if Oppenheimer doesn’t win BP at the Oscars (and that seems unlikely right now), Nolan appears to be in the driver’s seat for the Academy statue. If he doesn’t take DGA, it would frankly be a shocker. Don’t count on it.

Predicted Winner: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

First-Time Feature Film

Nominees: Cord Jefferson (American Fiction), Manuela Martelli (Chile ’76), Noora Niasari (Shayda), A.V. Rockwell (A Thousand and One), Celine Song (Past Lives)

This is clearly a showdown between the makers of the two BP nominees in Jefferson and Song. Fiction actually had a stronger showing than Lives from the Academy – 5 nominations to 2. Yet I think Song gets this by a nose.

Predicted Winner: Celine Song, Past Lives

Runner-Up: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

Documentaries

Moses Bwayo and Christopher Sharp, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Mstyslav Chernov, 20 Days in Mariupol, Madeleine Gavin, Beyond Utopia, Davis Guggenheim, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, D. Smith, Kokomo City

Even though it wasn’t nominated for Doc Feature at the Academy Awards, Guggenheim’s work in Still could score the hardware (the editing alone could earn it the win). However, I’ll go with Chernov and his likely Oscar frontrunner.

Predicted Winner: Mstyslav Chernov, 20 Days in Mariupol

Runner-Up: Davis Guggenheim, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

I’ll have reaction up over the weekend!

Oscars: The Case of Poor Things

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered eight of the BP nominees. They are linked at the bottom of the post. Next up is Poor Things from Yorgos Lanthimos.

The Case for Poor Things:

After The Favourite generated 10 nominations in 2018, Lanthimos’s follow-up bested that by 1 with 11. The multi-genre affair scored the second most nods overall for this year’s ceremony behind Oppenheimer‘s 13. The others are for the direction, Actress (Emma Stone), Supporting Actor (Mark Ruffalo), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, and Production Design. Truth be told, it didn’t really miss anywhere (though Willem Dafoe was probably close to getting in for Supporting Actor alongside his costars). It’s been nominated for top honors at key precursors like BAFTA and Critics Choice and won Musical/Comedy (over Barbie) at the Globes.

The Case Against Poor Things:

Poor Things might be a little too out there for even the Academy. More importantly, you have to place it in at least second position (maybe third after The Holdovers) behind strong frontrunner Oppenheimer.

The Verdict:

Just as The Favourite wasn’t, this isn’t the favorite for BP. Like The Favourite and Olivia Colman, it might yield a Best Actress winner in Emma Stone and some tech victories. This might also go home empty-handed.

My Case Of posts will continue with The Zone of Interest…

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction
Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall
Oscars: The Case of Barbie
Oscars: The Case of The Holdovers
Oscars: The Case of Killers of the Flower Moon
Oscars: The Case of Maestro
Oscars: The Case of Oppenheimer
Oscars: The Case of Past Lives

Oscars: The Case of Oppenheimer

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered six of the BP nominees. They are linked at the bottom of the post. Next up is Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer.

The Case for Oppenheimer:

Since it debuted last summer, the biopic of the “father of the atomic bomb” stood out as a massive awards player. It has a director who’s considered overdue for Oscar recognition. There’s widespread critical acclaim. And it’s an opportunity for the Academy to recognize a pic that general audiences flocked to (nearly a billion worldwide). The 13 nominations are the most of any film and it has already taken top honors at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice. The other nods are for Nolan in Director, Actor (Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actress (Emily Blunt), Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound. I would contend it has a real shot at picking up gold for at least 8 of them, in addition to BP.

The Case Against Oppenheimer:

There’s no doubt that it’s the frontrunner. And sometimes being the frontrunner causes a backlash that begets an upset. Usually the movie with the most nods doesn’t take BP (it’s only happened 3 out of the last 10 years with Birdman, The Shape of Water, and Everything Everywhere All at Once).

The Verdict:

Yes, there’s always the chance for a shocker. The Holdovers looms as a spoiler and perhaps the huge press generated by the Barbie snubs could propel it to a BP victory. Poor Things has its ardent supporters. That said, Oppenheimer is the far and away favorite for this and other prizes on March 10th.

My Case Of posts will continue with Past Lives…

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction
Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall
Oscars: The Case of Barbie
Oscars: The Case of The Holdovers
Oscars: The Case of Killers of the Flower Moon
Oscars: The Case of Maestro

Oscars: The Case of Barbie

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered American Fiction and Anatomy of a Fall and you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Our third contestant for BP glory is a little picture called Barbie. Perhaps you’ve heard of it. Let’s get into it.

The Case for Barbie:

If Oscar voters go with the most popular and seen choice, Greta Gerwig’s fantasy dramedy based on the Mattel doll is your selection. The pic became 2023’s largest earner last summer to the tune of nearly $1.5 billion worldwide and $636 million domestically. It landed BP nods at key precursors including SAG, the Globes, and Critics Choice. In addition to BP, there are seven other nods: Supporting Actress (America Ferrera), Supporting Actor (Ryan Gosling), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Production Design, and 2 possibilities in Original Song (“I’m Just Ken” and “What Was I Made For?”), making it the fourth most nominated feature behind Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and Killers of the Flower Moon.

The Case Against Barbie:

Despite the 8 total nominations, there were significant snubs (in case you haven’t read the news this week). Greta Gerwig did not make the quintet in Director and Margot Robbie (despite making all the major precursors) missed in Actress. It is rare (only thrice this century) for a BP recipient to have its filmmaker not even nominated. Barbie didn’t turn up in the final five at BAFTA.

The Verdict:

One could argue that the widely publicized news of Gerwig and Robbie’s exclusions could cause Academy voters to honor it here. I wouldn’t bank on it. Barbie is unlikely to go home empty-handed (victories in Production Design and Original Song are probably happening and Costume Design and Adapted Screenplay are doable). As for BP, Barbie‘s roadblock is the movie it will forever be linked with: Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer. They opened the same day, crushed the box office charts together, and coined the Barbenheimer phenomenon. It is Oppenheimer way out in front in the big race.

My Case Of posts will continue with The Holdovers…

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction
Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall