Tag: Barbenheimer

November 22-24 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (11/20): I have posted a $4 million forecast for Bonhoeffer today which puts it in fourth place. That change is reflected below and we now have a top 7 projections.

Bonhoeffer Box Office Prediction

Hollywood hopes for a massive box office weekend ahead as Wicked and Gladiator II look to inject $200 million or more in domestic receipts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Wicked Box Office Prediction
Gladiator II Box Office Prediction

In July 2023, the phenomenon known as Barbenheimer occurred when Barbie soared with a $162 million starting haul while Oppenheimer took in $82 million. I don’t think the grosses will be as gargantuan with Wicked and Gladiator II, but multiplexes should be in for a much needed boost.

Wicked adapts the well-known stage musical with Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande as early versions of the Wicked Witch of the West and Glinda the Good Witch from The Wizard of Oz, respectively. This is part 1 of Jon M. Chu’s fantasy musical with part II arriving in a year. I’m projecting nearly $135 million out of the gate as a wide audience seems destined to greet it.

Gladiator II is the long-in-development follow-up to Ridley Scott’s Best Picture winner with Paul Mescal headlining and Denzel Washington in an Oscar baity supporting turn. My high 60s forecast puts it in the runner-up position. I would note that either of these titles could over perform and keep on this post to see if there are any upgrades by Thursday.

With families flocking to Wicked and action fans packed for Gladiator, current champ Red One will slide to third. The holiday themed action comedy may experience a decline north of 50% considering the fresh competition.

The rest of the high five will consist of holdovers Venom: The Last Dance and The Best Christmas Pageant Ever and Heretic in a close race for fifth. Here’s how I envision the top 6 shaking out:

1. Wicked

Predicted Gross: $134.6 million

2. Gladiator II

Predicted Gross: $69.8 million

3. Red One

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million

4. Bonhoeffer

Predicted Gross: $4 million

5. Venom: The Last Dance

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

6. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever

Predicted Gross: $2.7 million

7. Heretic

Predicted Gross: $2.5 million

Box Office Results (November 15-17)

On one hand, Red Notice with Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans was originally set for Amazon only distribution so any number is better than nothing. On the other, its debut is fairly ho-hum considering the reported $250 million price tag. It made $32.1 million which did manage to exceed my $27.6 million take. As mentioned, I do expect a hefty dip though it could rebound over the Turkey Day frame.

Venom: The Last Dance was second after three weeks in 1st with $7.3 million, falling behind my $10.2 million prediction. The comic book based threequel sits at $127 million after four outings.

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever was third with $5.2 million. In a trend from this past weekend, it didn’t match my number as I pegged it at $7.6 million. The two-week tally is $19 million.

Heretic was fourth with $5.1 million (I said $6.3 million) as Hugh Grant horror thriller’s total is $20 million after its second go-round.

The Wild Robot rounded out the top five with $4.2 million compared to my $5.5 million call. The animated tale has earned $137 million in eight weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Wicked Box Office Prediction

Universal is banking on Wicked casting a spell on a wide audience when it debuts November 22nd. Based on the Stephen Schwartz musical, the fantasy set in the land of Oz comes from Crazy Rich Asians director Jon M. Chu. Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande headline with a supporting cast including Jonathan Bailey, Ethan Slater, Bowen Yang, Marissa Bode, Peter Dinklage, Michelle Yeoh, and Jeff Goldblum. The adaptation serves as part one with the sequel scheduled for November of 2025.

Expectations are high, especially after industry screenings that were met with Oscar buzz in Best Picture, Supporting Actress fo Grande, and numerous tech races. Moviegoers of all ages have familiarity with the Broadway show and, of course, The Wizard of Oz. There’s even some Barbenheimer chatter since it is opening on the same date as Gladiator II, which is also anticipated to perform well.

The forecasted range of its start is wide with some estimates less than $100 million, but going all the way up to $150 million. I’m skeptical it gets that high as some viewers may choose to wait until the extended Thanksgiving frame to check it out. Yet I do think it will easily clear nine digits out of the gate.

Wicked opening weekend prediction: $134.6 million

For my Gladiator II prediction, click here:

Gladiator II Box Office Prediction

For my Bonhoeffer prediction, click here:

Bonhoeffer Box Office Prediction

The Fall Guy Review

We all know Tom Cruise does his own stunts. He reminds us of that frequently and is the biggest artist handling the bulk of those duties himself. David Leitch’s The Fall Guy takes time to honor those performers doubling for the non-Cruisers and that’s a noble cause though it often plays like a long shaggy dog story.

Sort of based on the 1980s TV show with Lee Majors, Ryan Gosling is Colt Seavers. He’s Cliff Booth to Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s Rick Dalton… or rather Tom Ryder, who’s a mega action superstar with a penchant for hard partying. Seavers does the trickier work while Ryder takes all the credit. A prologue details a setup gone wrong that derails Colt’s career and his budding relationship with camerawoman Jody Moreno (Emily Blunt).

A year and a half later, Colt is parking cars instead of crashing them. He is summoned by producer Gail (Hannah Waddingham, kind of looking like 70s era Robert Evans in a wig) to set in Sydney. The selling point is the opportunity to make up with Jody, who is now directing the sci-fi saga Metalstorm with Ryder headlining. Upon his arrival down under, it turns out Jody has no idea what’s up or that he was joining the production.

The picture’s lead has mysteriously disappeared and Colt is tasked with tracking him down while also stunting by day. And, of course, there’s some serious and humorous tension with his ex.

I was reminded at times of 80s action comedies like Beverly Hills Cop or Fletch where the plot is inconsequential and where coasting on the above the title players’ charisma is enough. Obviously Gosling and Blunt have that level of appeal.

Somehow I didn’t fall for it despite their efforts. They have chemistry, but this fails to coast on their charms. The action scenes are well-choreographed. They should be given the subject matter and Leitch (John Wick, Atomic Blonde, Bullet Train) in charge. Yet there’s not one sequence that rivals, say, the antics of you know who in fill in the recent Mission: Impossible entry.

There are more references to Miami Vice or other 80s artifacts than the TV show it takes its name from. This includes Jody belting out “Against All Odds” by Phil Collins at a karaoke bar while Colt is engaged in an elaborate car chase. Blunt being more involved in the fights might have helped. Her one scene where she gets to do so is memorable.

The Fall Guy, given the personnel, is a minor disappointment especially with how convoluted it gets in the denouement. The occasionally on point self-referential jokes and the Barbenheimer cast mates provide the highlights. When they’re apart, it can feel like just an empty space.

** (out of four)

May 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is poised to rule over the box office charts as it looks for a similar opening to its predecessors. We also have Not Another Church Movie, spoofing the Tyler Perry assembly line of features out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Box Office Prediction
Not Another Church Movie Box Office Prediction

I have Kingdom premiering similarly to 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes and 2017’s War for the Planet of the Apes and even a smidge higher. I don’t foresee it reaching the heights of 2014’s Dawn of the Planet of the Apes at $72 million.

As for Church, I’m forecasting its number of parishioners gives it a mid single digits start and that should mean a third place showing. I do believe it has a shot at over performance, per my individual write-up. It could also flame out in the low single digits (this is a tough one).

There’s no question that The Fall Guy did not exceed expectations. In fact, the action comedy with Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt came in at the lowest end of its anticipated range (more on that below). An A- Cinemascore could mean the sophomore drop won’t be too damaging, but I suspect high 40s to low 50s is where the dip will be.

Holdovers Challengers and the re-release of Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace should round out the top five. The latter’s first weekend back in theaters is probably front loaded. Therefore I see Phantom sliding from 2nd to 5th and Challengers only down one spot in fourth.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $55.2 million

2. The Fall Guy

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

3. Not Another Church Movie

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

4. Challengers

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

5. Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menance

Predicted Gross: $4 million

Box Office Results (May 3-5)

Despite the Barbenheimer pedigree (the pics that ruled summer 2023), The Fall Guy‘s performance was stunted at just $27.7 million. That’s well under my $38.3 million prediction and a letdown considering the reported $150 million price tag. For the past decade and a half, the MCU/Disney has owned the first weekend of May that marks the official start of cinematic summer. With that franchise sitting it out, audiences responded with indifference to the Gosling and Blunt show.

The Mouse Factory did bank some more cash for its Star Wars franchise. Marking its 25th anniversary and despite its checkered reputation, the re-release of The Phantom Menace took in $8.7 million for second place. It certainly didn’t hurt that Saturday fell on May 4th (a sacred date for many fans). That tops my $6.8 million forecast as the first episode is now at $483 million stateside in the last quarter century.

Challengers was third with $7.5 million, on target with my $7.9 million call. Zendaya’s sports drama eased an expected 49% to bring its two-week total to $29 million.

Poorly reviewed horror flick Tarot had a fourth place debut in the cards with $6.5 million, a bit over my $5.6 million projection. Look for this to fade fast as have other recent genre offerings.

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire rounded out the top five with $4.5 million (I said $4.7 million) to bring its haul to $188 million after six weeks.

Finally, faith-based drama Unsung Hero fell considerably further in weekend #2 than I figured. In seventh place, its $2.9 million gross was well under my estimate of $5.4 million. The total is $13 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 3-5 Box Office Predictions

The summer box office season officially rises with Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt in The Fall Guy as horror pic Tarot is also on deck. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

The Fall Guy Box Office Prediction
Tarot Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (04/30): A couple hours after posting, per the comments below, I realized the large theatrical output that The Phantom Menance re-release is getting this weekend. My $6.8M projection puts it in third.

Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace Re-Release Box Office Prediction

Loosely based on the 1980s action show, the supporting Oscar nominees from Barbenheimer should dominate the charts with The Fall Guy. This is the rare year in the past decade and a half that the MCU is sitting the first frame of May out. Fall won’t climb anywhere near as high as that franchise does to kick off the season. A best case scenario might be $50 million, but I’ve got it in the high 30s. This should leg out impressively over the coming weeks.

As for Tarot, a mid single digits take should place it fourth behind the second weekend of current champ Challengers and Phantom. Scary movies have struggled lately with recent genre titles failing to reach $10 million out of the box.

The sophomore drop for Challengers could have a somewhat wide range. A low to mid 40s decline would be considered a win. I suspect it might see a fall in the high 40s or low 50s region.

Another question mark is the percentage reduction for faith-based drama Unsung Hero in weekend #2. With an A+ Cinemascore grade, audiences are liking what they see and should be recommending to friends and, in this case, fellow parishioners. It might only witness a 25-35% decrease and has a decent shot at being fourth if Tarot comes in under my meager projection.

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire should round out the high six and here’s how I see it playing out:

1. The Fall Guy

Predicted Gross: $38.3 million

2. Challengers

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

3. Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace re-release

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

4. Tarot

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

5. Unsung Hero

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

6. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

Box Office Results (April 26-28)

Zendaya and company fought off all competitors as Challengers served up $15 million in its opening. The well-reviewed love triangle didn’t quite match my $16.2 million forecast. It ended up right in its anticipated range.

Unsung Hero was runner-up with a solid $7.7 million, besting my $5.9 million call. In its first weekend it made back its tiny $6 million price tag and, as mentioned, should hold up well in the near future.

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire was third in weekend #5 at $7.2 million compared to my $6 million prediction. The overall take is a roaring $181 million.

Civil War plummeted from 1st to 4th with $7 million while still topping my $6.3 million projection. The three-week tally is $56 million.

Abigail rounded out the top five in its sophomore go-round at $5.2 million (I was close at $5.4 million). Total is $18 million.

Finally, The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare was sixth with $3.8 million. I was higher at $5.2 million as it dove a hefty 57% in its second weekend.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

The Fall Guy Box Office Prediction

For decades in Hollywood, the first weekend of May (or occasionally last frame of April) has served as the official start of cinematic summer. Ryan Gosling’s character in The Fall Guy might have worked on some of those kickoff projects as his stuntman title character gets top billing here. Emily Blunt co-headlines the action comedy from director David Leitch (Atomic Blonde, Deadpool 2, Bullet Train). Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Winston Duke, Hannah Waddingham, and Stephanie Hsu provide supporting work.

This Universal project (loosely based on the 1980s TV show) finds the studio in an unfamiliar position. The summer season has begun in many recent years with a Disney/MCU blockbuster getting the financial ball rolling (last year it was Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3).

Obviously The Fall Guy won’t reach MCU figures, but it has a lot going for it. Gosling is hot off Barbie and a recent SNL hosting stint that generated lots of buzz. Blunt is coming off reigning BP winner Oppenheimer. The Barbenheimer duo’s teaming initially debuted at South by Southwest to loud buzz and solid reviews (the RT score is 90%).

I do believe a $50 million opening is achievable but unlikely. Low 40s to mid 40s is also reasonable while mid to high 30s might be where it lands. Regardless I think this will leg out impressively throughout May.

The Fall Guy opening weekend prediction: $38.3 million

For my Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace re-release prediction, click here:

Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace Re-Release Box Office Prediction

For my Tarot prediction, click here:

Tarot Box Office Prediction

2023: The Year of Taylor Swift

My first two Year Of posts for the cinematic gifts we’ll remember in 2023 didn’t cover individuals. They focused on the phenomenon known as Barbenheimer and the impressive past few months for video game adaptations. You can peruse both of those entries here:

2023: The Year of Barbenheimer
2023: The Year of the Video Game Movie

Now we arrive at one performer whose year shone brightest beyond the silver screen. Yes, we’re talking Taylor, Swifties! Whether it was on her money minting tour or upping NFL viewership due to her romance with Travis Kelce, it was all about Taylor in 2023.

That popularity extended to the multiplex. On October 13th, her concert pic Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour broke every record in the genre. Actually it did so before it release by racking up ginormous pre-sales. When it debuted, the result was a $250 million worldwide gross with nearly $180 million of that stateside. Critics turned into Swifties as well (99% on Rotten Tomatoes).

This reversed perhaps the only blip on Swift’s career trajectory. Her movie past was littered with disappointments like 2019’s Cats and 2022’s Amsterdam. With Eras, she now stands tall as the Queen of the Concert Movie… and pretty much everything else in 2023. My Year Of posts will continue…

2023: The Year of Barbenheimer

As I do at the tail end of each year, I’m gifting you some posts recounting what enthralled us on the big screen in the preceding 12 months. There will be five for 2023 and, for the first write-up, I didn’t have to think too hard. This year, audiences across the globe were transfixed by the phenomenon known as “Barbenheimer”.

That would be the combination of Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer. Both pictures opened on July 21st stateside. The former – Gerwig’s modern take on the Mattel doll and her cinematic universe – drew critical praise and became the biggest hit of the year with $1.4 billion worldwide. The latter – Nolan’s biopic of the man who built the atom bomb – made $954 million worldwide (good for third overall) and proved that three-hour historical biopics can make unforeseen amounts of dough.

Barbie and Oppenheimer will forever be tied together despite their many differences. The similarities? Crowds were excited to see both. Both are primed to vie for Best Picture at the Oscars. Each could see a trifecta of their actors contend for acting prizes. For Barbie – Margot Robbie in Actress, Ryan Gosling in Supporting Actor, and America Ferrera in Supporting Actress. For Oppenheimer – Cillian Murphy in Actor, Robert Downey Jr. in Supporting Actor, and Emily Blunt in Supporting Actress. And in a welcome development, the summer’s two behemoths weren’t sequels.

With the possible exception of Top Gun: Maverick in 2022, Barbenheimer is likely the most notable box office story of the decade and certainly for 2023. My Year Of posts will continue tomorrow!

81st Golden Globe Awards Nominations Predictions

Prior to its January 7th airing on CBS and Paramount+, nominations for the 81st Golden Globe Awards are out Monday, December 11th. After years of airing on NBC, the ceremony has found a new home after the controversies of the last few years involving the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

That’s not the only change with the program. The categories we are used to have expanded from five to six nominees. And a new competition – Cinematic and Box Office Achievement – comes with eight contenders. We could safely coin this the “Barbenheimer” race unless Taylor Swift has something to say about that.

As always, there’s some controversy in the differentiation between Drama and Musical/Comedy placements. Netflix decided to campaign Todd Haynes’s May December in the latter even though Drama seems more appropriate. It could help it get more noms.

Here we go with my picks in each cinematic derby and I’ll give you an alternate with each.

Motion Picture (Drama)

Anatomy of a Fall

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Saltburn

Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

American Fiction

Barbie

The Color Purple

The Holdovers

May December

Poor Things

Alternate: Air

Film Director

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Celine Song, Past Lives

Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers

Actress (Film Drama)

Annette Bening, Nyad

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Greta Lee, Past Lives

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Cailee Spaney, Priscilla

Alternate: Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One

Actor (Film Drama)

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

Alternate: Zac Efron, The Iron Claw

Actress (Musical/Comedy)

Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple

Abby Ryder Fortson, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, You Hurt My Feelings

Natalie Portman, May December

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings

Actor (Musical/Comedy)

Gael Garcia Bernal, Cassandro

Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario

Timothee Chalamet, Wonka

Matt Damon, Air

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Alternate: Jamie Foxx, The Burial

Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple

Julianne Moore, May December

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Alternate: Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Supporting Actor

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Charles Melton, May December

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

Alternate: Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Best Screenplay

American Fiction

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: May December

Cinematic and Box Office Achievment

Barbie

Elemental

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

John Wick: Chapter 4

Oppenheimer

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

Alternate: The Little Mermaid

Motion Picture (Non-English Language)

Anatomy of a Fall

Perfect Days

Society of the Snow

The Taste of Things

The Teachers’ Lounge

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: The Promised Land

Motion Picture (Animated)

The Boy and the Heron

Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Elemental

Nimona

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Alternate: Wish

Original Score

The Boy and the Heron

Killers of the Flower Moon

Nyad

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: Elemental

Original Song

“Dance the Night” from Barbie

“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

“Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple

“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot

“A World of Your Own” from Wonka

Alternate: “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

9 Nominations

Barbie

8 Nominations

Oppenheimer

7 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

6 Nominations

Poor Things

5 Nominations

The Color Purple, The Holdovers

4 Nominations

Maestro, May December

3 Nominations

American Fiction, Nyad, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2 Nominations

The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Wonka, The Zone of Interest

1 Nomination

Air, All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Cassandro, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Dream Scenario, Flamin’ Hot, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, John Wick: Chapter 4, Nimona, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rustin, Saltburn, Society of the Snow, The Taste of Things, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, The Teachers’ Lounge, You Hurt My Feelings

Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (September 7th)

Beginning today, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories for the 96th Academy Awards slated for March 2024. Ardent readers of this here blog know that I typically update my predictions every 10-14 days.

Yet there’s been some major developments in the past week and there will be more in the week or so to come. The Telluride Film Festival just happened. Venice is ongoing and Toronto starts tonight. In other words, a whole bunch of Oscar hopefuls have just screened or are about to screen.

So for these closer looks at the four acting derbies, Best Director, and Best Picture – I’m obviously keeping all that in mind with the heavy buzz emanating from Colorado, Italy, and Ontario.

We begin with Supporting Actor. In this competition, 3 of the biggest contenders saw their movies released (or screen) prior to the September trio of festivals. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) and Ryan Gosling (Barbie) are, of course, part of the Barbenheimer phenomenon. Both appear highly likely to be nominated. I could see a narrative develop where Downey Jr. is honored for his body of work (in addition to his strong work in the film itself) and ends up taking the trophy. This would mark his third nom after 1992’s Chaplin and 2008’s Tropic Thunder. He’s currently my #1.

A similar victory could happen with Robert De Niro for Killers of the Flower Moon (which first screened at Cannes in May). The acting legend is a two-time Oscar winner, but it’s been 43 years since he took the lead prize for Raging Bull. You have go back to 49 years for his first statue in Supporting for The Godfather Part II. A Downey Jr. or De Niro statue could be contingent on which of their movies wins BP (if one of them does). The momentum from the top prize could dwindle down to either one of them.

Before its rapturous unveiling at Venice, there was uncertainty as to whether Mark Ruffalo or Willem Dafoe would be Fox Searchlight’s strongest contender for Poor Things. The answer might be both. Ruffalo could have the slight edge, but both could make the dance. That wouldn’t be all that surprising. Three of the past four Supporting Actor quintets have seen double nominees from the same feature – The Irishman in 2019 for Al Pacino and Joe Pesci, The Power of the Dog in 2021 for Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-McPhee, and last year for The Banshees of Inisherin with Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. It’s worth mentioning that none of the six nominees took the prize.

Speaking of double nominees, it isn’t out of the question that the aforementioned Plemons could materialize for Flower Moon. Same goes for Matt Damon in Oppenheimer. I suspect they ultimately don’t make it.

Past Lives is an acclaimed drama that seems destined for a BP spot. John Magaro is sure to be placed here and he could absolutely get into the final five. There is a question as to whether his costar Teo Yoo is campaigned for in lead or here. I’ve got him in the former as of now.

If Air overperforms, I wouldn’t totally discount Ben Affleck (he’s never had an acting mention). Glenn Howerton in BlackBerry has drawn plenty of raves. He’ll win some critics prizes and could be a trendy pick for inclusion. Charles Melton was singled out for his work alongside Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore at Cannes.

Dominic Sessa could see himself in for The Holdovers (especially if Alexander Payne dramedy’s cast mates Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph make their categories).

The Maestro acting campaigns should go to Carey Mulligan and Bradley Cooper in lead and not Matt Bomer. Saltburn reactions suggest any attention will go to star Barry Keoghan and not Richard E. Grant.

And there are unseen hopefuls in the wings. Colman Domingo in The Color Purple immediately comes to mind. His nom might not happen because he’s almost surely going to make the lead Actor’s five with Rustin.

So where’s that leave us? I’m shortening my possible nominees from 15 to 10 and here’s my snapshot of the race right now!

Predicted Nominees

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

5. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

Ben Affleck, Air

Matt Bomer, Maestro

Matt Damon, Oppenheimer

Richard E. Grant, Saltburn

Glynn Turman, Rustin

Supporting Actress is up next!