As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered six of the BP contenders and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Next up is I’m Still Here from Walter Salles.
The Case for I’m Still Here:
The Brazilian drama has been a critics favorite ever since it debuted in Venice where it won the Best Screenplay prize. The love is evidenced by the 95% Rotten Tomatoes score coupled with its 99% Audience Score on that site. It is a threat to win its other two nominations for International Feature Film and Actress (Fernanda Torres) based on the growing momentum.
The Case Against I’m Still Here:
It was unquestionably the surprise nominee on nomination morning that few (including me) predicted. Here missed the BP cut with precursors including the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. While it was up for Foreign Film at the Globes, it lost to Emilia Pérez. This could just as easily go for 0 for 3 on Oscar night and I’d say it’s the frontrunner in none of its competitions. The 3 nominations is the second lowest of the 10 hopefuls (ahead of 2 for Nickel Boys). Salles hasn’t been nominated anywhere for his direction and that rarely bodes well for BP viability.
The Verdict:
While I’m Still Here is generating increased visibility, I’d say International Feature Film and not Best Picture is where it could emerge over Pérez (which has faced unwanted headlines in recent days due to Karla Sofia Gascón’s past social media history).
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the first half of the BP contenders and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Next up is Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez.
The Case for Emilia Pérez:
This multi-genre mashup of music and crime mixed with social commentary has been at the forefront of awards attention since it debuted at Cannes last summer and took the Jury Prize. That’s essentially second place to the Palme d’Or which went to Anora. Pérez landed an Academy ceremony leading 13 nominations including Director, Actress (Karla Sofia Gascón), Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña), Adapted Screenplay, International Feature Film, Cinematography, Film Editing, Makeup & Hairstyling, Original Score, two in Original Song, and Sound. Precursor nods have been in abundance for BP at Critics Choice, BAFTA, and PGA and Best Ensemble at SAG. Mr. Audiard is in contention at DGA. At the Golden Globes, Pérez beat a field in Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy) that included fellow BP nominees Anora, The Substance, and Wicked.
The Case Against Emilia Pérez:
While festival crowds have lauded it, general audiences have not. Pérez sports an 18% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes while the next lowest among the BP hopefuls is The Substance at 75%. If you’re not buying the Tomato measuring accuracy of that stat, the critics aren’t over the moon either. The RT score of 73% is the least of the bunch with the next lowest being A Complete Unknown at 80%. The 71 Metacritic rating is second to bottom with Unknown at 70. There’s also the Netflix factor. The distributor has yet to win Best Picture and that could be due to voter aversion to the giant streaming service. Some believe this was a major factor at the 91st Academy Awards when Green Book took top honors over Roma. The movie with the leading amount of nominations has failed to win BP more often than not in the 21st century (14 out of 24 times). Additionally, I’m Still Here (with its unexpected Pic nom) has emerged as serious competition in International Feature Film where Pérez was seen as the easy frontrunner. Then there’s the events of the last week where Karla Sofia Gascón’s troubling social media posts from a few years back resurfaced. The story has dominated headlines in the trades and beyond and could hinder the frontrunner status it has held with pundits.
The Verdict:
Obviously a lot to unpack here. I have never had Pérez 1st in my BP rankings, but it’s undeniably a major threat to win. I fully understand why many do have it above the others (especially after the Globe victory). Yet for the lengthy information contained above in Case Against, I’m highly hesitant to push the chips in for it.
My Case Of posts will continue with I’m Still Here…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the first four features for BP and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. The fifth is Dune: Part Two.
The Case for Dune: Part Two:
If the Academy wants to honor one of the most widely seen pics, Dune is second only to Wicked in that particular race. The sci-fi sequel stands at $714 million worldwide compared to Wicked‘s $718 million (and growing). Denis Villeneuve’s epic continuation of Frank Herbert’s novels made the BP cut at PGA, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes.
The Case Against Dune: Part Two:
The misses are more glaring. Dune‘s additional Academy nods (Cinematography, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects) bring its total to five compared to the original’s 10. For perspective, part one from 2021 won six golden guys. Villeneuve didn’t get in Best Director (like with its predecessor) and the screenplay isn’t honored. Beyond what the Academy did, Dune failed to get into the BAFTA derby and Villeneuve was snubbed at the Directors Guild (unlike what occurred three years ago).
The Verdict:
In my previous Case Of posts for Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, and Conclave, I’ve given them all at least a shot at taking the top prize. Dune: Part Two is the first entry where I don’t believe winning is a possibility.
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered Anora, The Brutalist, and A Complete Unknown for BP and if you missed those, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Our fourth hopeful is Conclave.
The Case for Conclave:
Edward Berger’s pulpy papal drama has been considered a top awards player since it debuted at Telluride in September. With 93% on Rotten Tomatoes, reviews are solid enough and it performed decently at the box office (over $30 million) for its genre. It is up for 8 statues including Actor (Ralph Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Isabella Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, and Production Design. Conclave has scored BP nods everywhere it needs to. It leads the BAFTAs with 12 nominations, is up at Critics Choice and PGA and for Best Ensemble at SAG, and contended at the Golden Globes in Best Drama where it won Best Screenplay. Berger’s behind the camera work also landed a DGA mention.
The Case Against Conclave:
Berger surprisingly missed the cut with the Academy in Best Director. Only three films in the 21st century (Argo, Green Book, CODA) have won BP without its maker being nominated. Berger can’t catch a break with the Academy as his 2022 war epic All Quiet on the Western Front received nine mentions but excluded his direction. The 79 Metacritic score is less than some competitors. It is possible that the only race where its the frontrunner is Adapted Screenplay and possibly Editing. Don’t expect either of its acting nominees to make podium walks. The Brutalist emerged victorious at the Globes in Best Drama.
The Verdict:
The snub of Berger looms large. I’d likely be more optimistic if he hadn’t been left out. Conclave has a slight chance in BP, but I wouldn’t put much faith in it.
My Case Of posts will continue with Dune: Part Two…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered Anora and The Brutalist for BP and if you missed those, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Our third hopeful is A Complete Unknown.
The Case for A Complete Unknown:
If you want to bet on the picture with some late breaking momentum, the Bob Dylan biopic from James Mangold might be your horse. Released in December, Unknown is doing healthy business at the box office and scored 8 total noms that include Director, Actor (Timothée Chalamet), Supporting Actress (Monica Barbaro), Supporting Actor (Edward Norton), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Sound. The journey to the better than expected nomination count began with over performances at the precursors. It really hasn’t missed anywhere with a Best Ensemble mention at SAG and BP noms at the Golden Globes, PGA, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and a DGA slot for Mangold.
The Case Against A Complete Unknown:
It didn’t win the Golden Globe in Drama (that went to The Brutalist). The 80% RT score and 71 Metacritic are below most of its competitors. There’s even a chance that it goes 0 for 8 on Oscar night. I wouldn’t say it is the favorite in any category.
The Verdict:
I don’t think it’s impossible for this to take the top prize, but I would need to see some victories at upcoming precursors such as Critics Choice or SAG.
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered Anora and if you missed that, it is linked at the bottom of the post. Our second contestant is Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist.
The Case for The Brutalist:
With the exception of SAG (where it wasn’t really expected to be a strong contender for Best Ensemble), the 215 minute epic immigration period piece has landed everywhere else. This includes BAFTA, PGA, Critics Choice, and DGA. The Golden Globe performance was particularly notable as it flexed its muscle with a Best Drama victory over competitors including A Complete Unknown and Conclave. Corbet took Director and Adrien Brody won Actor. The ten nominations are tied for 2nd best with Wicked. In addition to Pic, Corbet, and Brody, there are noms in Supporting Actress and Actor (Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, and Production Design. The timely subject matter doesn’t hurt. Critical appreciation is present with 93% on RT and a 90 Metacritic.
The Case Against The Brutalist:
Due to its runtime and subject matter, The Brutalist will not be as widely seen as some other options. Voters may want to go for something more popular and known. There’s been some subpar showings like at SAG where Pearce and Jones missed.
The Verdict:
I’ve had The Brutalist ranked in my top spot for months. It could take Director + Actor + some down the line competitions. That’s a solid mix for BP victory. However, this is a soft top ranking as half the field has BP winning potential.
My Case Of posts will continue with A Complete Unknown…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
I will begin with the ten BP contenders and then alternate alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Sean Baker’s Anora kicks it off!
The Case for Anora:
The dramedy from auteur Sean Baker has turned out to be his awards breakout. Nominations wise it has landed everywhere it needed to in the precursors. This includes the Golden Globes with 5 nods as well as DGA, SAG, PGA, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. With a 93% Rotten Tomatoes meter and 91 on Metacritic, it sports five other Academy mentions and Mikey Madison is a threat to win Best Actress. It is likely the frontrunner for Original Screenplay. The other three noms are for Baker’s direction, Yura Borisov in Supporting Actor, and Film Editing.
The Case Against Anora:
Anora surprisingly went 0 for 5 at the Oscars. In Best Musical or Comedy, it fell short to Emilia Pérez with Demi Moore (The Substance) emerging over Madison in Actress while Conclave took Screenplay. From a genre and content standpoint, it’s not your “typical” BP recipient.
The Verdict:
There is no doubt that a narrative exists where Anora could take the top prize. That especially holds true if it gets the combo of Actress + Original Screenplay. Yet I’ve never had Anora ranked 1st in my BP forecast while others have and I’m skeptical that’ll change.
My Case Of posts will continue with The Brutalist…
Three years ago at the Sundance Film Festival, Sophie Hyde premiered her dramedy Good Luck to You, Leo Grande where Emma Thompson earned an Actress (Musical or Comedy) nom. It also rounded up a few BAFTA mentions. In 2025, the writer/director is back in Park City with Jimpa. Olivia Colman stars as a mom taking her non-binary teen to visit their gay grandpa (or Jimpa) in Amsterdam. John Lithgow is the title character with newcomer Aud Mason-Hyde as the teen. Costars include Tilda Cobham-Hervey, Daniel Henshall, Kate Box, Eamon Farren, and Zoë Love Smith.
Colman had a four year Oscar run where she achieved 3 nominations: 2018’s The Favourite (where she won), 2020’s The Father in supporting, and 2021’s The Lost Daughter in lead. Lithgow nabbed back-to-back mentions in Supporting Actor over four decades ago with 1982’s The World According to Garp and 1983’s Terms of Endearment (winning neither). Both of these roles seem like Academy bait.
However, initial reaction is mixed with 67% on Rotten Tomatoes. Perhaps its eventual distributor will mount a campaign. Lithgow, in what’s said to be quite a revealing role, seems due for one. His turn in Conclave last year turned out not to be that part as costars Ralph Fiennes and Isabella Rossellini were the focal points. I’m just not convinced this’ll be a major awards player at all. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives TOMORROW prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd (pushed back due to the California wildfires). Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
The last post in this series is Best Picture. If you missed my write-ups for the acting derbies and director, you can access them here:
As I’ve mentioned several times lately, I believe there’s an octet of movies that have punched their ticket to the BP show. Let’s call them the easy 8. If any of these pictures miss the Best Picture cut at this point, it would be a major surprise. Four of them (Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez) have shown up in five of the key precursors: Golden Globes, BAFTA, PGA, Critics Choice and SAG.
Two more (The Brutalist, Wicked) managed four.
Two more (Dune: Part Two, The Substance) were nominated in three. No other 2024 motion pictures had three or more mentions.
Now we have to consider the final two slots and that’s where it gets tricky. Before we do, let’s take a moment to recognize some efforts that won’t make the ultimate dance. Some of them could show up in tech races or see some of their actors nominated. Others didn’t cut the mustard with critics and audiences. A lot of these titles were, at some juncture, listed in my top 25 possibilities as I forecasted the race throughout the year. They won’t be seen tomorrow in my BP list. We’re talking about Joker: Folie à Deux and Gladiator II and Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. Yes, I once saw Megalopolis as a viable candidate. There’s The Piano Lesson, The Apprentice, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night, Civil War, Kinds of Kindness, Maria, and The End.
That leaves me with 8 pictures to ponder for 2 spots. Unlike my previous posts on Best Director and the actors, I won’t be ranking these possibilities. After all, I gotta leave a little suspense for my final picks tomorrow, right? Nevertheless let’s walk through them one by one with some commentary.
All We Imagine as Light would be a threat to win Best International Feature Film had India submitted it as its contender. It was not to be and the Academy could make up for it in BP. Yet it hasn’t shown up in any of the 5 aforementioned precursors.
Challengers only has a Musical or Comedy nod from the Globes in its favor. A PGA nomination (which I wrongly predicted) didn’t materialize. This is a tough sell.
Nickel Boys has Golden Globe and Critics Choice noms on the resume. Many critics have it at the top of their 2024 best of, but it’s missed other key competitions.
Nosferatu has gotten some “spoiler” ink lately with some saying it could be this year’s Nightmare Alley. That pic from 2021 at least had the Critics Choice nod whereas Nosferatu didn’t show up in the quintet of precursors.
A Real Pain has undoubtedly had an up and down journey on the road to a potential BP nomination. It made the Globe cut and then missed Critics Choice and BAFTA. That left it down and out in the eyes of many and I dropped it from my 10. This week it popped back up at PGA and its fortunes could be stronger.
The Seed of the Sacred Fig should receive an International Feature Film nom. It has not gotten into the precursors for Picture though. Though I didn’t say I’d rank these eight, this is unquestionably at or near the bottom of these hopefuls.
September 5, like A Real Pain, has been buoyed by a PGA spot and it also made the Globes. Yet its exclusions at BAFTA and Critics Choice are noteworthy.
Sing Sing has had a rocky preseason, especially missing SAG and the Globes. While Colman Domingo seems locked in for Best Actor, the Academy will really need to fall for this. Of the five precursors, this only received Critics Choice.
There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Picture for the 97th Academy Awards. After months of endless speculation, you’ll know my final predictions in about 24 hours!
My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Sunday, January 19th (note the new date) prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd. Note that new date too as the Academy pushed back the nomination unveilings due to the California wildfires. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
The fifth post in this series is Best Director. If you missed my write-ups for the acting derbies, you can access them here:
Similar to Best Actor, I believe there are four hopefuls represented here that you don’t want to bet against. There is a quartet of filmmakers who have been nominated in the four most significant precursors (DGA, Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice). They are Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist). Mr. Corbet won the Globe while the other races are TBD. I wouldn’t leave any of them out of your predictions.
So it all comes down to the fifth slot and I will discuss seven possibilities that I feel are viable. Before we get to that, there are the directors who might’ve had a shot before their pictures premiered. The movies either became non-contenders due to poor buzz and reviews or just never properly caught on in the awards chatter. This list includes Francis Ford Coppola (Megalopolis), Todd Phillips (Joker: Folie à Deux), Yorgos Lanthimos (Kinds of Kindness), Ridley Scott (Gladiator II), George Miller (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Joshua Oppenheimer (The End), Pablo Larrain (Maria), Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door) and Steve McQueen (Blitz).
The next level includes makers of movies that didn’t quite reach BP consideration and even some that could make the cut at BP. I’m looking at Tim Fehlbaum (September 5), Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing), Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Walter Salles (I’m Still Here), Robert Eggers (Nosferatu) and Luca Guadagnino for Challengers and Queer.
Now let’s get to the 7 individuals fighting for the 5th spot, shall we?
Jon M. Chu directed one of the year’s largest blockbusters in Wicked. However, he has only picked up a Critics Choice precursor mention in which there were eight nominees. I’d rank him 6th of these 7 possibilities.
Coralie Fargeat’s behind the camera work for The Substance has yielded her Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA noms. The notable omission is DGA, but DGA/Oscar seldom match completely. I have her 1st of these 7 possibilities.
Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) got in the Globes mix but couldn’t make it anywhere else. She’s 5th of the 7 possibilities.
James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) was the surprise fifth contender at DGA and Unknown has been exceeding expectations at precursors as we arrive at Oscar nominations. Under the same logic seen above with Fargeat, I have Mangold 3rd of the 7 possibilities.
Mohammad Rasoulof’s direction of The Seed of the Sacred Fig was once seen a strong hopeful. Fig has, however, seemingly fallen out of BP contention and Rasoulof has not been nominated at any of the aforementioned shows. He’s 7th of the 7 possibilities.
RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) made the octet of Critics Choice contestants and has been absent elsewhere. Boys is a question mark for BP inclusion and I have Ross 4th of the 7 possibilities.
Finally, Denis Villeneuve was a shocking snub in 2021 with Dune. For Dune: Part Two, he’s missed DGA and the Globes but was included in Critics Choice and BAFTA. The Academy might seek to rectify their ’21 activity. At the moment, I have him 2nd of the 7 possibilities for the last slot.
OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Director for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Sunday when I do final picks. I’ll have that all-important dive into Best Picture up next!
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