Tag: BAFTA

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our first contender in the Best Actor five is on the table and it’s Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme.

Previous Acting Nominations:

2017 – Actor (Call Me by Your Name) – lost to Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour; 2024 – Actor (A Complete Unknown) – lost to Adrien Brody for The Brutalist

The Case for Timothée Chalamet:

After likely being runner-up last year, Chalamet has drawn career best reviews as the singularly focused ping pong player in Josh Safdie’s sports drama. Precursor appreciation has followed with victories at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice while he awaits the BAFTAs and SAG Actor. While he’s only 30, Chalamet’s body of work in recent years is seen as worthy of recognition and Marty is a supreme vehicle for it.

The Case Against Timothée Chalamet:

The Academy left his costars out of contention including Odessa A’Zion (who I predicted for inclusion). A domino effect for either One Battle After Another or Sinners could create an opening for Leonardo DiCaprio or Michael B. Jordan, respectively.

The Verdict:

Unless one of the upcoming precursors provides an upset, it appears the third time is probably going to be the charm for Chalamet.

My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Supporting Actress and that’s Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our first contender in the Best Actress quintet is up for consideration and that’s Jessie Buckley in Hamnet.

Previous Acting Nominations:

2021 – Supporting Actress (The Lost Daughter) – lost to Ariana DeBose for West Side Story

The Case for Jessie Buckley:

As Agnes, the grief stricken spouse of William Shakespeare, Buckley’s weighty role has been seen as a major contender since the project was announced. The buzz intensified after its Telluride premiere in early fall. Buckley has already picked up hardware at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice and is awaiting word on potential victories at BAFTA and SAG Actor.

The Case Against Jessie Buckley:

Hamnet had a couple of unexpected misses on Oscar nomination morning including the omission of her costar Paul Mescal in Supporting Actor. Sentimental Value did slightly better than expected and its potential momentum could benefit Renate Reinsve.

The Verdict:

Of the four acting competitions, a Buckley win might be the easiest to call. Four years ago, she was a surprise nominee in supporting for The Lost Daughter. A loss for her first shot in lead would also be surprising unless there’s an upset at SAG or BAFTA.

My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Best Actor and that’s Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Train Dreams

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten Best Picture contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the final film in BP and that’s Clint Bentley’s Train Dreams. If you missed my posts covering the previous nominees, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Hamnet
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Marty Supreme
Oscar Nominations: The Case of One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of The Secret Agent
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Sentimental Value
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Sinners

The Case for Train Dreams:

Since premiering at Sundance over a year ago, the period drama has been seen an awards player. In addition to the BP nod, it’s up for Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Original Song. Precursor BP nominations for the Netflix release include the Globes and PGA.

The Case Against Train Dreams:

Note the noms it didn’t get including directing and or any mentions for its cast (Joel Edgerton, Felicity Jones, or William H. Macy). BAFTA almost completely ignored it where it received a sole cinematography nom and it was blanked at SAG Actor.

The Verdict:

Of the two Netflix entries up in the biggest race, Dreams is below Frankenstein as far as victory chances and Frankenstein is definitely not going to win.

My Case Of posts will continue with the first Best Actress write-up and that’s Jessie Buckley in Hamnet…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Sinners

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten Best Picture contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the ninth candidate in BP and that’s Sinners from Ryan Coogler. If you missed my posts covering the previous nominees, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Hamnet
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Marty Supreme
Oscar Nominations: The Case of One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of The Secret Agent
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Sentimental Value

The Case for Sinners:

The 16 (yes, sixteen) nominations for the vampire saga set a record. Even if the Academy had not added the new Casting race, it still would’ve set the all-time high as the previous best was 14 in a three-way tie between All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land. Besides Picture, it is up for Coogler’s direction and original screenplay, Actor (Michael B. Jordan), Supporting Actress (Wunmi Mosaku), Supporting Actor (Delroy Lindo), Casting, Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Sinners has seen BP nods at all important precursors including the Globes, PGA, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and best ensemble at SAG Actor. At $280 million in domestic earnings, it is easily the largest grosser of the 10 nominees.

The Case Against Sinners:

The movie with the most nominations has only taken BP three out of the past 10 shows (2017’s The Shape of Water, 2022’s Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Oppenheimer in 2023). Sinners has yet to have a signature victory as Hamnet took Best Drama at the Globes and One Battle After Another was victorious at Critics Choice. The Academy has shown reluctance to honor horror flicks.

The Verdict:

The 16 nominations changed the dynamic from One Battle being seen as the fairly sturdy frontrunner to what’s now considered a legitimate showdown between Warner Bros properties. If Sinners takes this weekend’s DGA for its maker Coogler, look for this to become the favorite. If it doesn’t achieve that prize, it could still be honored with ensemble as SAG Actor and its momentum could result in Oscar glory. With all that said, Battle is still a strong competitor that may not be denied.

My Case Of posts will wrap up the BP hopefuls with Train Dreams…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Sentimental Value

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten Best Picture contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the eighth horse in the BP derby and that’s Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. If you missed my posts covering the previous nominees, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Hamnet
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Marty Supreme
Oscar Nominations: The Case of One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of The Secret Agent

The Case for Sentimental Value:

The Norwegian drama has been on the Academy’s radar since it took home the Grand Prix (the prize for 2nd) at the Cannes Film Festival in May. It scored a better than anticipated nine nods including four of its cast members -Renate Reinsve in lead Actress, Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass in Supporting Actress, and Stellan Skarsgård in Supporting Actor plus Trier’s direction and original screenplay with Eskil Vogt. The other two mentions are for Film Editing and International Feature Film. It also nabbed BP noms at BAFTA, the Globes, and Critics Choice.

The Case Against Sentimental Value:

In addition to no BP victories at the already aired ceremonies, it has fallen short to The Secret Agent at the Globes and Critics Choice in the foreign field. Value also blanked at the SAG Actor awards. Only one Oscar winner (1995’s Braveheart) has been zeroed out by SAG previously.

The Verdict:

The overperformance of nine noms arguably makes it the favorite over Agent for International Feature Film and Skarsgård (fresh off a Globe win) is considered the frontrunner in his race. Though it could be in the top half of the 10 contenders, Value is not a real threat for the trophy.

My Case Of posts will continue with Sinners…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of The Secret Agent

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the seventh movie in the big dance and that’s The Secret Agent from Kleber Mendonça Filho. If you missed my posts covering the previous nominees, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Hamnet
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Marty Supreme
Oscar Nominations: The Case of One Battle After Another

The Case for The Secret Agent:

Filho’s Brazilian political thriller has become a late bloomer in awards season even though it picked up traction last summer at Cannes where it won Actor (Wagner Moura) and director prizes. Agent was still seen as behind Sentimental Value and It Was Just An Accident in International Feature Film, but then it took the foreign prizes at Critics Choice and the Globes. In addition to BP and the International race, Moura is in for lead Actor and it is up for Casting.

The Case Against The Secret Agent:

Note that in the Case for, I never spoke of it being in serious contention for Best Picture. The four nominations are tied for the lowest of the BP hopefuls with three others. It missed key nods in director and screenplay and other tech categories that usually correlate to a victory. Agent underperformed at BAFTA with only two nominations.

The Verdict:

With Value having an impressive Oscar morning, Agent could fall short in IFF and come up empty-handed at the ceremony. It is not a threat for BP.

My Case Of posts will continue with Sentimental Value…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of One Battle After Another

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the sixth contender – Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. If you missed my posts covering the previous five nominees, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Hamnet
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Marty Supreme

The Case for One Battle After Another:

Since Paul Thomas Anderson’s multi-genre mixup premiered in September, it vaulted to the top of the BP rankings. It impressed with 12 additional nominations – PTA in Director and Adapted Screenplay, Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Supporting Actress (Teyana Taylor), Supporting Actor (Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn), Casting, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound. The precursor love has been strong already with a Best Film (Musical or Comedy) trophy at the Globes and BP victory at Critics Choice. It’s also in contention for SAG Actor Ensemble and highest honors at BAFTA. This is PTA’s fourth title up for BP (the others being There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread, and Licorice Pizza) and there could be a feeling that he’s overdue for recognition after 30 years of critically acclaimed projects.

The Case Against One Battle After Another:

Sinners. The fellow Warner Bros release raised eyebrows with a record-breaking 16 nods. That could be hard for the Academy to discount when voting for BP. There was a notable Oscar miss for Teyana Taylor missing the quintet in lead Actress.

The Verdict:

The day before nominations morning, I would have confidently called Battle for the win. The Sinners showing makes it more of a toss-up.

My Case Of posts will continue with The Secret Agent…

Oscar Predictions: Wicker

Olivia Colman headlines the irreverent and vulgarly romantic Sundance premiere Wicker from co-directors Alex Huston Fischer and Eleanor Wilson. As a Fisherwoman who builds herself a wooden boyfriend, the supporting cast includes Alexander Skarsgård (as said BF), Peter Dinklage, and Elizbeth Debicki.

Currently seeking distribution, Rotten Tomatoes is at 93% with 68 on Metacritic for the bawdy concoction. Three-time nominee and one-time winner Colman (for The Favourite) will probably assist in easily securing a release deal. Oscar attention will be harder to achieve though I do wonder if the Globes could bite in their Musical or Comedy competitions if a legit campaign is mounted. If nothing else, the BAFTAs are a possibility (maybe remote dependent on competition) for Colman. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Hamnet

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the fourth nominee – Hamnet from Chloé Zhao. If you missed my posts covering the previous three contenders, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein

The Case for Hamnet:

Arriving five years after Zhao’s Nomadland took home Best Picture, Director, and Actress, the filmmaker hopes to do the same with this gut-wrenching historical drama. Besides BP, it’s up in 7 other races including Director, Actress (Jessie Buckley), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Costume Design, Original Score, and Production Design. The ensemble is nominated at the SAG Actor awards and it made the BP cut at Critics Choice and BAFTA. Perhaps most significantly, it beat out Sinners in a slight upset for Best Drama at the Golden Globes. 3 out of the last BP Academy winners also featured the Best Actress victor and Buckley is definitely the frontrunner.

The Case Against Hamnet:

Despite some decent arguments in the case for, One Battle After Another and Sinners are still seen as the favorites. Hamnet missed some notable competitions at the Oscars – Cinematography, Editing and Supporting Actor (Paul Mescal). Even at BAFTA (where it was expected to fare even better), it wasn’t nominated in Cinematography, Editing, or Casting. The Academy could feel they just honored Zhao.

The Verdict:

Buckley is in good shape unless upcoming precursors change the narrative. The movie itself might be in third when it comes to rankings. Despite the Globe win, I’d say it’s a distant third.

My Case Of posts will continue with fifth nominee Marty Supreme…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the third nominee in the biggest race of all and that’s Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein. If you missed my posts covering Bugonia and F1, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1

The Case for Frankenstein:

Del Toro’s dream project, arriving eight years after The Shape of Water won BP and director, amassed an impressive nine nominations. Those additional 8 mentions are Supporting Actor (Jacob Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound. The Netflix production has shown up in significant precursors including SAG Actor ensemble, Critics Choice, PGA, and the Globes. Del Toro is up at DGA and Elordi won Supporting Actor at Critics Choice.

The Case Against Frankenstein:

There are no Picture wins at the aforementioned precursors and it missed the Best Film quintet at BAFTA. The omission from the Brits confirms that Frankenstein is probably 6th among the contending ten. While the nine nominations are noteworthy, Del Toro missing Director and no nod in Film Editing are significant.

The Verdict:

It’s alive in races such as Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design. Not in Best Picture.

My Case Of posts will continue with Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet…