Sam H. Freeman and Ng Choon Ping’s LGBTQ+ revenge thriller Femme first screened at the Berlin Film Festival back in February 2023 with a U.K. premiere in December. After a limited stateside release in March, it hits streaming services tomorrow. The recipient of 11 British Independent Film Awards, the sole win was for its two leads Nathan Stewart-Jarrett and George MacKay in Best Joint Lead Performance. It is a feature-length adaptation of a BAFTA nominated short film from 2021.
Unlike like their Independent counterparts, the BAFTAs ignored the full-length Femme despite strong reviews (94% on RT). 1917 star MacKay made the long list for Best Actor, but didn’t place among the 6 eventual nominees. Though it should be eligible for this year’s Oscars due to the spring release, the Academy is unlikely to put it in contention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Back to Black doesn’t hit domestic venues until May 17th, but the biopic is out this weekend in the U.K. and reviews are available for download. Focused on the life of British crooner Amy Winehouse, Fifty Shades of Grey helmer Sam Taylor-Johnson directs with Marisa Abel as the late singer. Jack O’Connell, Eddie Marsan, and Lesley Manville costar.
Critical reaction is decidedly mixed. Trades like Variety and Hollywood Reporter are mostly positive while plenty of across the pond publications are panning it. The current result is 52% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Like another 2024 musical biopic about a legend gone too soon (Bob Marley: One Love with Kingsley Ben-Adir in the title part), notices for its headliner are stronger than the picture itself. Abel is being praised and she’s at least a slight threat to contend in Best Actress. Like Ben-Adir, it might be a stretch to make the final cut. Perhaps BAFTA is more doable. Don’t expect Black to factor in anywhere else. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Olivia Colman and Jessie Buckley both received Oscar nods for their work in 2021’s The Lost Daughter. The pair reunite in Wicked Little Letters from director Thea Sharrock. It premiered last fall at the Toronto Film Festival, came out in the UK in February, and makes it way to stateside locations on March 29th. Costars include Anjana Vasan, Malachi Kirby, Joanna Scanlan, Gemma Jones, and Timothy Spall.
Critics are divided on the 1920s mystery comedy which is said to be heavy on foul language coming from delightful British accents. The RT score is a so-so 64%. Despite praise for the cast, the Sony Picture Classics release is unlikely to factor into the awards race. Same goes for the Globes and BAFTA, but perhaps the studio will mount a campaign. However, it probably won’t make a %#*@$^! difference. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After a year plus of speculation, the 96th Academy Awards have finally happened. As anticipated, Oppenheimer had a solid night by winning over half of its nominations with 7 trophies out of 13 nods. It emerged triumphant in the top of the line races where it was expected to do so: Picture, Director (Christopher Nolan), Actor (Cillian Murphy), and Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.). **Fun fact: RDJ is the first former SNL cast member to win an Oscar. Oppenheimer also took the prizes for Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Score. I correctly called those victories for the epic biopic correctly.
The real question of the night was what other movie would emerge as having a good night with the Academy. That answer turned out to be Poor Things. I only had Yorgos Lanthimos’s multi-genre experiencing generating one Oscar. It received four. I rightly had it pegged for Production Design. Yet it also took Makeup & Hairstyling over my pick of Maestro and Costume Design over my favored Barbie.
And then… Emma Stone took to the podium for her second Academy Award in 7 years over Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), who had seemed to grab the momentum after her SAG statue. It turned out to be the BAFTAs (where Stone won) that had the closest correlations with tonight’s show. Poor Things had a rich bounty that was better than my projections and pretty much everyone else’s.
The Zone of Interest, as widely projected, is the International Feature Film. In another slight surprise, it also was named for Best Sound over Oppenheimer (got that wrong).
Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and Zone were the only films with multiple golden pickups. Other BP nominees that nabbed a win were The Holdovers where Da’Vine Randolph completed her sweep in Supporting Actress and Anatomy of a Fall in Original Screenplay and American Fiction in Adapted Screenplay (got those right). Same goes for Barbie‘s sole trophy in Original Song with “What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish over “I’m Just Ken” (though Ryan Gosling’s performance of the tune was perhaps the evening’s highlight).
I correctly called 20 Days in Mariupol for Documentary Feature while The Boy and the Heron is Animated Feature over Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (I went with Spidey). Another wrong projection: The Creator didn’t take Visual Effects as that went to Godzilla Minus One.
All in all, I went 14 for 20. I will note that in the six races I missed, my runners-up ended up with each one. And in perhaps the biggest shocker of the night, the ceremony actually wrapped up early and that was with host Jimmy Kimmel (who’s good at this assignment) stretching in the home stretch.
It’s been a blast trying to figure out the 96th Academy Awards! Now onto the 97th…
FINAL WIN TALLY
7 Wins
Oppenheimer
4 Wins
Poor Things
2 Wins
The Zone of Interest
1 Win
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Boy and the Heron, Godzilla Minus One, The Holdovers, 20 Days in Mariupol
After scores of Oscar Prediction posts, 35 Case Of write-ups making the argument for and against winners in BP, Director, and the four acting derbies, and numerous articles covering the key precursors – we have arrived at my final winner predictions for the 96th Academy Awards. The ceremony airs Sunday night with Jimmy Kimmel back hosting (remember: it starts an hour earlier than normal at 7PM EST).
Truth be told, some of the major races come with little to zero suspense and you’ll read about that below. On the other hand, there are a handful of competitions that are quite unpredictable with the most visible being Best Actress.
As I do each year, I’ll give you the nominees, brief analysis, and a winner and runner-up pick for all the feature-length categories. Let’s get to it!
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Let’s keep this simple. Oppenheimer is the easiest BP selection to predict in quite some time and there’s been some obvious ones recently (including Everything Everywhere All at Once last year). It has taken all the precursors it needs to including the Globes, BAFTA, SAG and Critics Choice. Frankly, the more difficult call is runner-up (and it doesn’t really matter). I’ll go with Poor Things since it had the second most noms and showed up in all the major races where it was expected to contend.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
You could literally copy and paste everything about Picture for Director with the man who made Oppenheimer and throw in the fact that he took DGA as well. Another no brainer.
Prediction: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (I guess)
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
And now it gets complicated. Of the four acting races, this is by far the hardest one. Why? It appears to be a coin flip between Stone and Gladstone. They split the Golden Globes as anticipated. Stone received BAFTA and Critics Choice and appeared to be out front. And then Gladstone swooped in for SAG. That recency factor could serve as a boost. Additionally, Gladstone’s victory would be historic. For Stone, it would be her second statue in seven years after her La La Land prize. Stone could absolutely make the podium trip and it wouldn’t be unexpected at all. Yet for the reasons above…
Prediction: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Poor Things
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Best Actor also looked like a pick ’em for a bit between Murphy and Giamatti. They split the Globes and then Giamatti was your Critics Choice choice. Murphy, however, regained momentum with BAFTA and SAG. A Giamatti win could occur, but it seems unlikelier now.
Prediction: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
There was some thought that this race could become interesting at some point with an Emily Blunt upset at SAG or maybe even Brooks scoring a shocking victory. It never happened and Randolph has emerged everywhere. This is one of the easiest categories to call.
Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
This quintet of performers all come from BP nominees, but the winner will be from the BP recipient. Downey Jr. has swept this season thus far and that’ll continue.
Prediction: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives
You’ll notice a common theme with both Screenplay derbies. It looked like each would difficult to figure out, but precursors have had consistency. In Original, that’s been Anatomy of a Fall and this should mark its sole Oscar since France inexplicably didn’t make it their International Feature Film submission.
Prediction: Anatomy of a Fall
Runner-Up: The Holdovers
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
There is a little more intrigue here with Barbie in the mix and a potential Oppenheimer juggernaut being rewarded even here. That said, Fiction kept racking up precursors and I can’t bet against it for its solo prize.
Prediction: American Fiction
Runner-Up: Oppenheimer
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Nominees: Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Teachers’ Lounge, The Zone of Interest
As mentioned, with Anatomy left out, this becomes easy. Zone is the only BP nominee listed in this group.
Prediction: The Zone of Interest
Runner-Up: Society of the Snow
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
We’ve got real drama here as Heron took the Globe and BAFTA while Spidey is the Annie and Critics Choice selection. I’m leaning toward the latter, but Heron could fly away with the minor upset.
Prediction: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nominees: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol
Doc Feature can be a head scratcher from time to time and I’m tempted to go with Daughters or even something else to shake it up. Mariupol, though, has collected the bulk of notable precursors. It’s the safe pick.
Prediction: 20 Days in Mariupol
Runner-Up: Four Daughters
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Sometimes brevity is appreciated. There are some of these tech races where Oppenheimer is way out front. This would be one.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Here’s one where Oppenheimer isn’t really expected to win. Instead, like Production Design, this should be between Barbie and Poor Things and it’s 50/50 in my view. I have a strange feeling that Barbie will win more than 1 Oscar (there’s one coming below where it’s basically a slam dunk). This could mark that second trophy.
Prediction: Barbie
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST FILM EDITING
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
A very easy call for Oppenheimer.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Anatomy of a Fall
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow
Poor Things is a genuine threat, but I’ll say this is Maestro‘s only victory.
Prediction: Maestro
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
It is Oppenheimer‘s destiny to take this one.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Nominees: “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot; “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie; “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony; “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon; “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Here’s where Barbie is the safe pick with either tune. “Ken” nabbed a Critics Choice prize, but Billie Eilish’s ballad scored at the Globes and Grammys.
Prediction: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Runner-Up: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Per Costume Design, a showdown between Barbie and Bella of Poor Things. Unlike Costume Design, my coin is flipped to Poor Things for what I’m projecting is its only Academy Award.
Prediction: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Barbie
BEST SOUND
Nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
This looked like a no thinking pick for Oppenheimer until Zone managed the BAFTA. I could see that repeating, but I’m not confident enough to bet against Oppenheimer.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: The Zone of Interst
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon
Along with Actress, this is where I’ve struggled the most. VE is kinda wild this year with Oppenheimer not listed (it won Critics Choice), Dune: Part Two having been pushed to 2024, and Poor Things (which won BAFTA) not in the quintet. So… your guess is as good as mine. I’m really tempted to go with Godzilla. Guardians and Napoleon are possible (I really don’t see Mission as the pick). Yet I’ll say The Creator edges them out as it just took some Visual Effects Society awards. Confidence level? Nada.
Prediction: The Creator
Runner-Up: Godzilla Minus One
That means I’m speculating that every BP nominee except Past Lives will win an Oscar… and that Barbie is the only other picture with more than one trophy other than Oppenheimer.
Here’s the projected breakdown for victories:
8 Wins
Oppenheimer
2 Wins
Barbie
1 Win
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Creator, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon,Maestro, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, 20 Days in Mariupol, The Zone of Interest
And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with how I did and general takeaways…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our fifth performer in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things . Let’s get to it!
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
The Kids Are All Right (Supporting Actor, 2010); Foxcatcher (Supporting Actor, 2014); Spotlight (Supporting Actor, 2015)
The Case for Mark Ruffalo:
For his role as a true louse in Yorgos Lanthimos’s Poor Things, Ruffalo notched his fourth bid in Supporting Actor and perhaps voters will feel he’s overdue. He doesn’t have to worry about splitting votes with Willem Dafoe (his costar who was omitted) and he received noms at the Globes and Critics Choice.
The Case Against Mark Ruffalo:
He did not receive mentions at key precursors SAG and BAFTA. His leading lady Emma Stone is receiving the only potential winner buzz. Most importantly, Ruffalo’s fellow Avenger Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) has taken all the trophies at preceding ceremonies.
The Verdict:
It’s Iron Man and not Hulk happening here.
My Case Of posts will conclude (!) with Justine Triet’s direction for Anatomy of a Fall…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our fifth performer in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers . Let’s get to it!
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
None
The Case for Da’Vine Joy Randolph:
It’s significant. After capturing the attention of many critics and moviegoers in 2019’s Dolemite Is My Name, Randolph has had a sterling precursor season by sweeping at the Globes, SAG, BAFTA, and Critics Choice. Heck, she even picked up the Indie Spirit Award for good measure in Alexander Payne’s acclaimed dramedy.
The Case Against Da’Vine Joy Randolph:
I’m struggling to come up with one. Randolph has won everywhere she needs to and no other rival emerged as a threat. I suppose if Oppenheimer greatly exceeds expectations, Emily Blunt could benefit from it. However, that hasn’t played out anywhere including BAFTA (where some suspected she could be a surprise recipient).
The Verdict:
Randolph will be holding an Oscar in the building come March 10th.
My Case Of posts will continue with Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our fifth performer in Best Actor and that’s Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction. Let’s get to it!
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
None
The Case for Jeffrey Wright:
The veteran thespian and Tony and Emmy winner for Angels in America finally gets into the Academy’s mix with Cord Jefferson’s dramedy. The Globes, SAG, and Critics Choice all included him. The film itself easily matched expectations with 5 nods (including for Wright’s costar Sterling K. Brown) and it could get honored somewhere.
The Case Against Jeffrey Wright:
That somewhere is likely to be in Adapted Screenplay and not Best Actor where Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) is favored with Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) as runner-up. BAFTA didn’t bite and he won none of the precursors.
The Verdict:
You’d be wrong to bet on Wright.
My Case Of posts will continue with Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our fifth performer in Best Actress and that’s Emma Stone in Poor Things. Let’s get to it!
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
Birdman (Supporting Actress, 2014); La La Land (Actress, 2016, WON); The Favourite (Supporting Actress, 2019)
The Case for Emma Stone:
Stone has posted significant wins this season with the Globes for Musical/Comedy, BAFTA, and Critics Choice. As Bella in Yorgos Lanthimos’s latest multi-genre concoction, she leads the picture with the second most overall nominations after Oppenheimer.
The Case Against Emma Stone:
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) has key victories of her own at the Globes (Drama) and, most notably, SAG last weekend. Voters may opt to honor her in what would be a history making win over Stone’s second statue in seven years.
The Verdict:
This appears to be the one acting derby coming down to the wire. Between Stone and Gladstone, I’ll be pondering it all the way to final predictions in the coming days.
My Case Of posts will continue with Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our fourth filmmaker in Best Director and that’s Martin Scorsese in Killers of the Flower Moon. Let’s get to it!
Previous Directing Oscar Nominations:
Raging Bull (1980); The Last Temptation of Christ (1988); GoodFellas (1990); Gangs of New York (2002); The Aviator (2004); The Departed (2006, WON); Hugo (2011); The Wolf of Wall Street (2013); The Irishman (2019)
The Case for Martin Scorsese:
Being one of the most celebrated directors in the history of the medium helps. For this epic historical drama, Scorsese nabs a 10th nod for his behind the camera work (moving ahead of Steven Spielberg’s 9). That’s second only to William Wyler’s 12. DGA, Globe, and Critics Choice mentions preceded this.
The Case Against Martin Scorsese:
It’s Christopher Nolan’s year as Oppenheimer glides to a BP crowning. That should easily correlate to this race. Scorsese also missed the BAFTA cut.
The Verdict:
The stats will be 1 for 10 for Marty when it comes to victories as Nolan is taking this.
My Case Of posts will continue with Emma Stone in Poor Things…
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 