Tag: BAFTA Awards

77th BAFTA Nominations Reaction

The BAFTAs, the United Kingdom’s equivalent to the Oscars, unveiled their nominations six days before the Academy has their turn. In short… the BAFTAs always BAFTA. That means there were some baffling omissions in some major competitions that could alter the thinking of prognosticators when it comes to their Oscar forecasts. Then again… the BAFTAs have a history of going their own way that doesn’t necessarily have a connection to what the Academy ultimately decides. I went 85 for 119 in my guesstimates for BAFTA.

Let’s walk each race one by one with the nominees, how I performed, and some quick thoughts.

Film

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

Barbie failed to make the cut with The Holdovers (which had a very impressive morning) sliding in. This is likely Oppenheimer‘s race to lose.

Director

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

How I Did: 4/6

Here’s where the shockers begin. Cooper and Payne are in over Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Marty’s exclusion is especially surprising. As with Film – Mr. Nolan is looking strong.

Actress

Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

How I Did: 3/6

More unforeseen action as Barrino, Oparah, and Robbie (my alternate) appear here instead of Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Greta Lee (Past Lives), and Mia McKenna-Bruce (How to Have Sex). In perhaps the story of the day, Gladstone falling off is truly astonishing as she’s been seen by many (including me) as the #1 option for the Oscar in Actress. For BAFTA, Stone might be the smart choice and you can anticipate some writers switching her to the top spot over Gladstone at Oscar.

Actor

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Teo Yoo (Past Lives)

How I Did: 4/6

Despite no love for Past Lives in the categories above, Teo Yeo is in along with Domingo in place of Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers). Scott’s omission at BAFTA, to me, is more unexpected than Leo missing. Murphy might be out front, but Giamatti (especially considering The Holdovers overperformance) is a factor. For that matter, Maestro also had a solid showing and Cooper could get a win here.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers), Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

How I Did: 5/6

Hüller, who was my alternate pick, is a double nominee. I went with Cara Jade Myers for Flower Moon. Randolph has been sweeping the season thus far and will look to continue that.

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)

How I Did: 4/6

Elordi and Sessa in over Anthony Hopkins (One Life) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things). It’s worth noting that this is Ruffalo’s second major miss after SAG. Downey Jr. has taken GG and CCA and looks to keep the streak alive.

Original Screenplay

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives

How I Did: 4/5

Maestro finds a slot over my Saltburn call. Considering how The Holdovers performed, I’d put it out front with Anatomy lurking.

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 4/5

Now would be a good time to mention that Zone had a fine day despite missing Best Film. It’s in here over Flower Moon in another snub for Scorsese’s epic. This is a tricky race and I’m not ready to declare a frontrunner.

Casting

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Killers of the Flower Moon

How I Did: 2/5

Since there’s no Oscar competition for this one, it’s always a crapshoot figuring this out and it shows. Anatomy, How to, and Holdovers are named and I picked Barbie, Oppenheimer (a rare category which it missed), and Saltburn.

Animated Feature

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

How I Did: 3/4

As with all animated derbies for 2023, it’s Heron vs. Spider-Man. The former could have the edge at BAFTA, but either could be victorious. I had Nimona instead of Elemental.

British Film

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, Napoleon, The Old Oak, Poor Things, Rye Lane, Saltburn, Scrapper, Wonka, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 9/10

My alt Oak makes the ten over One Life. Maybe Poor Things gets this since it’s the only Best Film entry. However, I wouldn’t discount Strangers or Zone.

Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer

Nominees: Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Earth Mama, How to Have Sex, Is There Anybody Out There?

How I Did: 1/5

Ouch. Only got How to Have Sex listed correctly so I guess I’ll say it wins (especially considering its impressive performance elsewhere). I wrongly had The End We Start From, Police Society, Rye Lane, and Scrapper.

Film Not in the English Language

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 3/5

Mariupol and Snow over The Boy and the Heron and Fallen Leaves. Anatomy is probably a slight favorite over Zone.

Documentary

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox, Wham!

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

I’ll admit I didn’t think this would be one of my 2 perfect calls. Considering its inclusion in the international race, Mariupol is a decent bet for the trophy.

Cinematography

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did 4/5

Maestro over Saltburn. Think Oppenheimer.

Costume Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

Killers over Wonka. Think Barbie or Poor Things.

Editing

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

This is Oppenheimer.

Makeup and Hair

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 3/5

Barbie and Priscilla are no-shows while Killers and Napoleon materialize. This should be Maestro.

Original Score

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

How I Did: 4/5

My alt Saltburn in over Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (which missed both races I projected it in). Think Oppenheimer.

Production Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 4/5

My alt Zone in over Napoleon. This should be Barbie or Poor Things.

Sound

Nominees: Ferrari, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 4/5

Mission over Napoleon. Bank on an Oppenheimer win.

Special Visual Effects

Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Poor Things

How I Did: 2/5

Ouch on this one. We know now that Oppenheimer will not be a nominee in VE for BAFTA or Oscar. Indiana Jones, Oppenheimer, and Spider-Man out in favor of my alt Guardians, Mission, and Napoleon. Your guess is as good as mine, but maybe Creator or Poor Things is the pick.

That all works out to these movies contending for these numbers of BAFTAs:

13 Noininations

Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Poor Things

10 Nominations

The Zone of Interest

9 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

7 Nominations

The Holdovers, Maestro

6 Nominations

All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall

5 Nominations

Barbie, Saltburn

4 Nominations

Napoleon

3 Nominations

How to Have Sex, Past Lives

2 Nominations

20 Days in Mariupol, The Color Purple, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Rye Lane, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

1 Nomination

American Fiction, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Creator, Earth Mama, Elemental, Ferrari, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Is There Anybody Out There?, The Old Oak, Rustin, Scrapper, Society of the Snow, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!, Wonka

I’ll have winner predictions up for shortly before the BAFTA ceremony on Sunday, February 18th.

96th Academy Awards Predictions: January 6th Edition

We are 17 days out from Oscar nominations being revealed and a flurry of activity is ahead of us. The Golden Globes air Sunday evening and SAG nods come out on Wednesday. The BAFTA long lists were unveiled yesterday and critics groups continue to bestow their honors. Those events (specifically the Globes and SAG) could alter my thinking in the very near future.

As for these first forecasts of the fresh new year, the big news of the past few days was the announcement that Barbie will contend in Adapted Screenplay and not Original. That means I’ve shifted Greta Gerwig’s blockbuster from #1 in its former race to the top spot in its new one. That drops All of Us Strangers from the adapted field and allows Air to enter the high five for original.

You won’t find a whole lot of changes in the main categories. I will note that Barbie is now sitting in the #2 slot in BP with Killers of the Flower Moon sliding to third. In Supporting Actress, the fifth position (which seems wide open) goes to Sandra Hüller in The Zone of Interest. That makes her a double nominee and puts my former pick of Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) on the outside looking in.

You can peruse all the movement below! Keep an eye on the blog this week for reaction to the Globes, SAG nods, and any other noteworthy activity.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: Even)

2. Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

6. Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)

7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (E)

9. American Fiction (PR: 9) (E)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Color Purple (PR: 11) (E)

12. May December (PR: 12) (E)

13. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Air (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Society of the Snow

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)

7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

J.A. Bayona, Society of the Snow

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (E)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)

7. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (-4)

10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)

4. May December (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Iron Claw (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Barbie (moved to Adapted Screenplay)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original Screenplay)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-2)

5. American Fiction (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Color Purple

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Society of the Snow (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Perfect Days (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)

8. Io Capitano (PR: 9) (+1)

9. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Four Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Godland

The Monk and the Gun

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nimona (PR: 4) (E)

5. Suzume (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Peasants (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Wish (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Robot Dreams

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 1) (E)

2. Beyond Utopia (PR: 2) (E)

3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Symphony (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 7) (E)

8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)

10. A Still Small Voice (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. Barbie (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

El Conde

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+3)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wonka (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Chevalier (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Air (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Past Lives (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Golda (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 7) (E)

8. Beau is Afraid (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)

7. Elemental (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Barbie (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

American Fiction

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: A Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (+2)

8. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-4)

9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Dear Alien (Who Art In Heaven)” from Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Maestro (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ferrari (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Barbie (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Killer (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Creator (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Napoleon (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 8) (-2)

That means I’m currently projecting these movies generate these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Oppenheimer, Poor Things

11 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

9 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

Maestro, The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers

3 Nominations

American Fiction, May December, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2 Nominations

American Symphony, The Color Purple, Napoleon, Society of the Snow

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rustin, Suzume, The Taste of Things

Oscar Predictions: The Lesson

After premiering at the Tribeca Festival last month, British thriller The Lesson is out in limited release stateside. Marking the feature length debut of Alice Troughton (who’s done her share of TV work across the pond), the cast includes Richard E. Grant, Julie Delpy, Daryl McCormack, and Stephen McMillan.

The Bleecker Street release is generating decent if rather subdued reviews with an 83% Rotten Tomatoes score. Five years back, Grant was a Supporting Actor contender for Can You Ever Forgive Me? and he may find himself in that mix for the upcoming Oscars with Emerald Fennell’s Saltburn. McCormack nabbed a BAFTA mention for Good Luck to You, Leo Grande last year.

Perhaps The Lesson could show up among the 10 nominees for Outstanding British Film at the BAFTAs. That could even be a stretch though maybe Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer is feasible. Don’t look for the Academy to notice it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

BAFTA & DGA Reaction

The past 24 hours have likely been impactful when it comes to figuring the puzzle that is Oscar prognosticating. The BAFTAs and the DGAs announced their winners. The latter went as expected. The Brits, on the other hand, showed they are still capable of surprises.

Across that pond, Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front made a lot of noise. The German WWI epic won 7 out of its 14 nominations. This includes Best Film and Director. I predicted those categories would go to The Banshees of Inisherin and the Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Side note – I went 13 for 22 overall on the BAFTA picks. Quiet also took Adapted Screenplay over my favored Living. The other four were Film Not in the English Language, Cinematography, Original Score, and Sound. I called 3 of those 4, but had Babylon listed in Score instead. Ironically I picked Quiet to take Production Design. That went to Babylon.

While this is a great BAFTA performance for Quiet, I don’t believe it dramatically changes its dynamic at the Oscars. I still don’t view it as a threat to emerge victorious in Best Picture. It’s important to remember that just 3 out of the past 10 BAFTA winners ended up nabbing the biggest race at the Academy Awards. Nomadland (from 2020) is the only match of the previous 8 ceremonies. And, of course, Berger isn’t even nominated in Director for the Oscars.

In the lead acting derbies, I correctly called the victors with Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Austin Butler (Elvis). This solidifies each as the frontrunners and it especially hurts Colin Farrell for Banshees. I would say he needed this to have any real shot at Best Actor on March 12th (unless he somehow manages an upset at SAG next weekend).

Banshees made up for the Best Film and Actor losses in the supporting fields. Kerry Condon is Supporting Actress which I projected. She has emerged as the alternative to Oscar favorite Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. One of the massive upsets is Barry Keoghan winning Supporting Actor over the heavily favored Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once (who was sweeping until today). I still believe Quan is looking good for Oscar.

Further races I got right: Banshees in Original Screenplay; Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio as Animated Film (continuing its sweep); Elvis in Costume Design; Everything Everywhere for Editing; Avatar: The Way of Water‘s Visual Effects; Banshees for Outstanding British Film; and Aftersun for Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer.

Where I went wrong: Navalny is Best Documentary over Fire of Love and Elvis took Casting instead of Everything Everywhere and won Make-Up & Hair over The Whale. That means Banshees and Elvis each earned 4 statues. Nothing else won more than one.

As I relayed in my DGA prediction, the directorial recipient there has matched the Oscar winning director 19 of 22 times in the 21st century. The Daniels were honorees for Everything Everywhere. Even though Everything won only Editing at BAFTA, I still think it’s the frontrunner for BP at the Oscars (as are the Daniels).

Bottom line: Quiet was loud at BAFTA. Yet the most significant storyline with Academy impact could be Butler and Blanchett firming up their standings.

Oscars: The Case of Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans

For his brief but memorable appearance as an eccentric granduncle in Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans, Judd Hirsch is next up in my Case Of posts for the Supporting Actor nominees.

The Case for Judd Hirsch:

From TV shows Taxi and Dear John to movies including Ordinary People and Independence Day, Hirsch has been a fixture on screens small and large for decades. His inclusion here comes 42 years after a nod in the same category for Ordinary People and that stands as the longest gap between recognitions in Oscar history. Besides that cool storyline, he scored a Critics Choice mention and managed to get in over his more favored costar Paul Dano.

The Case Against Judd Hirsch:

Hirsch was omitted at the Golden Globes, SAG, and BAFTA for individual honors. He’s only in the film for about 10 minutes and that’s brought some gripes about whether he should be in the quintet at all. Most importantly, Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) is probably the sturdiest frontrunner in any of the acting competitions.

Previous Nominations:

Supporting Actor (Ordinary People; 1980)

The Verdict:

Hirsch was a real question mark to make the cut. There’s not much mystery about his chances to win as they’re basically non-existent.

My Case Of posts will continue with Ruben Östlund’s direction for Triangle of Sadness!

For my other posts covering the Supporting Actor contenders, click here:

Oscars: The Case of Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin
Oscars: The Case of Brian Tyree Henry in Causeway
Oscars: The Case of Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin
Oscars: The Case of Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once

76th BAFTA Film Awards Winner Predictions

The BAFTAs, Britain’s version of the Academy Awards, airs this Sunday (February 19) and it can often serve as a preview for where the Oscars will go. That holds true in same races more than others like the acting derbies.

In the past decade, 32 of the 40 winners in Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor became Oscar recipients. That’s 8 out of the past 10 Actresses, 9 for 10 in Actor, 7 for 10 in Supporting Actress, and 8 for 10 in Supporting Actor.

It’s a different story for the grand prize. A mere 3 of 10 Best Film winners at BAFTA are BP victors at the Oscars – Argo, 12 Years a Slave, and Nomadland. The percentage goes up considerably for Director at 7/10.

I’m going to keep it simple here. I’ll give you the nominees and my predicted winner and a runner-up. Let’s get to it!

Best Film

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár

Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Director

Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Predicted Winner: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Todd Field, Tár

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, Tár

Runner-Up: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Daryl McCormack (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)

Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis

Runner-Up: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everywhere All at Once), Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)

Predicted Winner: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse), Albrecht Schuch (All Quiet on the Western Front), Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)

Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front, Living, The Quiet Girl, She Said, The Whale

Predicted Winner: Living

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Animated Film

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red

Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Runner-Up: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Best Film Not in the English Language

All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Corsage, Decision to Leave, The Quiet Girl

Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Runner-Up: The Quiet Girl

Best Documentary

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Moonage Daydream, Navalny

Predicted Winner: Fire of Love

Runner-Up: Navalny

Best Casting

Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Triangle of Sadness

Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Elvis

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Empire of Light, Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Runner-Up: Elvis

Best Costume Design

All Quiet on the Western Front, Amsterdam, Babylon, Elvis, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Predicted Winner: Elvis

Runner-Up: Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Best Editing

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Make-Up & Hair

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, The Whale

Predicted Winner: The Whale

Runner-Up: Elvis

Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Predicted Winner: Babylon

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Batman, Elvis, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Runner-Up: Babylon

Best Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Special Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

Outstanding British Film

Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Brian and Charles, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, See How They Run, The Swimmers, The Wonder

Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Aftersun

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Aftersun, Blue Jean, Electric Malady, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Rebellion

Predicted Winner: Aftersun

Runner-Up: Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

That equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of wins:

4 Wins

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2 Wins

Elvis

1 Win

Aftersun, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Fire of Love, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Tár, The Whale

I’ll have a recap up on Sunday!

Oscars: The Case of Women Talking

Women Talking is the final Case Of post for the Best Picture nominees at the 95th Academy Awards. Will we be talking about Women gathering Oscars come March 12th? Let’s get into it.

The Case for Women Talking:

Sarah Polley’s adaptation of the 2018 Miriam Toews novel generated awards buzz out of the gate when it premiered at Toronto. At the Critics Choice Awards, it had a respectable showing with six mentions including BP and Director with a victory in Adapted Screenplay.

The Case Against Women Talking:

There’s a lot. For starters, its total of two nominations is the lowest of the candidates (it’s rare for a BP contender to have only one other nom). Women was ignored in Director, Original Score, and for any of its performances and it was once thought to be in contention for all. BAFTA totally ignored it. The Golden Globes only put it up in two races (Screenplay and Score) and it lost both. Its SAG count is one category. That was in Ensemble with individual players like Jessie Buckley, Claire Foy, and Ben Whishaw left out. Box office grosses have been subpar.

Other Nominations:

Adapted Screenplay

The Verdict:

Women Talking does stand a chance of becoming the Adapted Screenplay recipient. Perhaps this can cling to the hope that CODA took BP last year and it tied for the least numbers of nominations among the ten. Realistically there is just about zero chance of this becoming Best Picture.

While my Case Of posts for BP have concluded, I will now move to the filmmakers and thespians in Director and the four acting derbies. That will begin with the Daniels and their direction of Everything Everywhere All at Once!

If you missed my Case Of posts for the other BP nominees, you can access them here:

Oscars: The Case of All Quiet on the Western Front
Oscars – The Case of Avatar: The Way of Water
Oscars: The Case of The Banshees of Inisherin
Oscars: The Case of Elvis
Oscars: The Case of Everything Everywhere All at Once
Oscars: The Case of The Fabelmans
Oscars: The Case of Tár
Oscars – The Case of Top Gun: Maverick
Oscars: The Case of Triangle of Sadness

76th BAFTA Nominee Reactions

Five days ahead of the Academy Awards nominations, our friends across the pond have revealed their picks. The BAFTAs (Great Britain’s Oscars equivalent) take place March 13th with Richard E. Grant hosting.

After the long lists of potential contenders were revealed, it was an impressive showing for Edward Berger’s WWI epic All Quiet on the Western Front. Today’s nods solidified its status as a favorite of this branch with a terrific 14 nominations. In short, it showed up everywhere it could’ve with the exception of Best Actor.

While Quiet made noise, it was the opposite for Women Talking and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. Both were blanked. In particular, each were expected to contend in Adapted Screenplay (Talking is seen as a potential winner at Oscar). The Fabelmans only managed one mention. I projected that though not in the race where it materialized.

I went 83/119 on my forecasts. Let’s walk through each category with some quick takes.

Best Film

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár

How I Did: 4/5

No shockers here as Elvis got in over Triangle of Sadness. Given the performance by Quiet today, it may battle it out with Banshees (which did well this morning) and Everything for the grand prize.

Director

Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)

How I Did: 4/6

My runner-up Chan-wook making the cut was not a surprise. Prince-Bythewood getting in is. They’re in over Alice Diop (Saint Omer) who was my own surprise pick and Charlotte Wells (Aftersun). It’s worth noting that Aftersun had a rather subpar day. We already knew Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) was out since he didn’t make the long list. This might be Berger v. Daniels.

Actressk

Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

How I Did: 5/6

Deadwyler over Lesley Manville in Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris. As projected, this is another high profile omission for Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans. Her Oscar hopes are shakier by the minute.

Actor

Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Daryl McCormack (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)

How I Did: 5/6

McCormack unexpectedly pops up instead of Felix Kammerer – the one miss for All Quiet. Noteworthy that Tom Cruise couldn’t land here for Top Gun: Maverick (with a so-so haul of 4 tech nods).

Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)

How I Did: 4/6

The question here is whether Bassett keeps the victory streak alive or whether Condon, De Leon, or one of the others can disrupt a sweep. Curtis and Mulligan surface over my projected picks of Lashana Lynch (The Woman King) and Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion).

Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse), Albrecht Schuch (All Quiet on the Western Front), Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)

How I Did: 4/6

Another call for Redmayne. He and Schuch join this sextet instead of Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness) and Brad Pitt (Babylon). Quan is the favorite.

Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

How I Did: 4/5

The sole nod for The Fabelmans is here and I thought Aftersun would be in the quintet instead. Will Banshees or Everything emerge?

Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front, Living, The Quiet Girl, She Said, The Whale

How I Did: 2/5

Ouch. As mentioned, no Glass Onion or Women Talking and I also had Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio listed. All Quiet, The Quiet Girl, and The Quiet Whale, errr just The Whale, were the trio I wasn’t counting on. Good luck selecting a winner here. I’m thinking Living at the moment.

Outstanding British Film

Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Brian and Charles, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, See How They Run, The Swimmers, The Wonder

How I Did: 8/10

The only race with 10 contenders, one would think Banshees (as the only Best Film nominee) is out front. I had Blue Jean and Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris and not See How They Run or The Swimmers.

Outstanding Debut a British Writer, Director, or Producer

Aftersun, Blue Jean, Electric Malady, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Rebellion

How I Did: 3/5

Malady and Rebellion over Emily and Wayfinder. Before this morning, I would’ve thought Aftersun was a slam dunk. It likely still takes this, but Grande could threaten given its over performance.

Film Not in the English Language

All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Corsage, Decision to Leave, The Quiet Girl

How I Did: 4/5

Had EO and not Corsage. The only way All Quiet doesn’t take this in a blowout is if it wins Best Film and the voters want to choose something else. That probably won’t occur, but if so, Decision to Leave is viable considering the directing nod.

Animated Film

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red

How I Did: 4/4

I won’t pat myself too hard on the back since the only category with a quartet wasn’t much of a challenge. Picking a recipient isn’t either as Pinocchio should prevail.

Documentary

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Moonage Daydream, Navalny

How I Did: 3/5

I admittedly went with a couple spoilers in Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song and The Ghost of Richard Harris. Fire and Navalny are present instead for what could be a preview of the Oscar five (or at least 4/5).

Casting

Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Triangle of Sadness

How I Did: 3/5

Chose Banshees and Fabelmans and not All Quiet (get used to hearing that) or Elvis.

Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Empire of Light, Top Gun: Maverick

How I Did: 3/5

Had Athena and Tár as opposed to The Batman and Elvis.

Costume Design

All Quiet on the Western Front, Amsterdam, Babylon, Elvis, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

How I Did: 3/5

All Quiet and Amsterdam are suited for competition instead of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (a notable snub) and Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical.

Editing

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick

How I Did: 4/5

Thought the Brits might select Moonage Daydream but it’s Banshees instead.

Make Up and Hair

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, The Whale

Didn’t have All Quiet or Matilda. Did have Amsterdam and Babylon.

Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Two of the year’s most acclaimed scores (Empire of Light, Women Talking) fall out with All Quiet and Everything in.

Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Batman, Elvis, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

How I Did: 2/5

Ouch Part II. Only correctly called Babylon and Elvis (the duo most likely to win). Incorrectly had Avatar: The Way of Water, Banshees, and Empire of Light.

Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

How I Did: 4/5

Tár in, The Batman out.

Special Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick

All Quiet in over Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore. Despite a meager haul for Avatar, it should manage a victory in this race.

For those keeping score, that means these pictures garnered these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front

10 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once

9 Nominations

Elvis

5 Nominations

Tár

4 Nominations

Aftersun, The Batman, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale

3 Nominations

Babylon, Empire of Light, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Triangle of Sadness

2 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Decision to Leave, The Quiet Girl, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, She Said, The Woman King

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Amsterdam, Argentina, 1985, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Blonde, Blue Jean, Brian and Charles, Corsage, Electric Malady, The Fabelmans, Fire of Love, The Good Nurse, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Moonage Daydream, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Rebellion, See How They Run, The Swimmers, Till, Turning Red, The Wonder

I’ll have final predictions up shortly before the ceremony’s airdate!

76th BAFTA Nominee Predictions

Arriving five days before Oscar nominations are the British Academy Film Awards – commonly known as the BAFTAs. On January 6th, the long lists in each category were revealed. There were major surprises like Avatar: The Way of Water not being in the list of 10 for Best Film consideration (same goes for its maker James Cameron in Director). Perhaps the biggest shock was Steven Spielberg being omitted from the Directing race. That’s partly why I have The Fabelmans generating a grand total of 1 nomination.

This is a show that isn’t afraid to go their own way. In 2021, while all 5 Best Film contenders were also BP contenders with the Academy, none of the six Best Actress hopefuls scored an Oscar nod (I doubt that happens again). Only two of the six Actor nominees got the Academy’s consideration.

You know the drill. For each competition, I’m giving you my picks (nominees can be between 4 and 10 and mostly 5 and 6 depending on the race) and a runner-up. Let’s go!

Best Film

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

Director

Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Alice Diop (Saint Omer), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Charlotte Wells (Aftersun)

Runner-Up: Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

Actress

Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Runner-Up: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Actor

Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Felix Kammerer (All Quiet on the Western Front), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)

Runner-Up: Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Lashana Lynch (The Woman King), Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)

Runner-Up: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brad Pitt (Babylon), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)

Runner-Up: Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

Original Screenplay

Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

Runner-Up: The Fabelmans

Adapted Screenplay

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, She Said, Women Talking

Runner-Up: The Whale

Outstanding British Film

Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Blue Jean, Brian and Charles, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, The Wonder

Runner-Up: Lady Chatterley’s Lover

Outstanding Debut a British Writer, Director, or Producer

Aftersun, Blue Jean, Emily, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Wayfinder

Runner-Up: Donna

Film Not in the English Language

All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Decision to Leave, EO, The Quiet Girl

Runner-Up: RRR

Animated Film

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red

Documentary

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Ghost of Richard Harris, Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song, Moonage Daydream

Runner-Up: Navalny

Casting

Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Triangle of Sadness

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front, Athena, Empire of Light, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin

Costume Design

Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

Runner-Up: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Editing

All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Moonage Daydream, Top Gun: Maverick

Runner-Up: Aftersun

Make Up and Hair

Amsterdam, Babylon, The Batman, Elvis, The Whale

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

Original Score

Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Empire of Light, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Women Talking

Runner-Up: The Batman

Production Design

Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Empire of Light

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick

Runner-Up: Thirteen Lives

Special Visual Effects

Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, Top Gun: Maverick

Runner-Up: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in nominations:

11 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin

8 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

7 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front

6 Nominations

Aftersun, Elvis

5 Nominations

Babylon, Empire of Light, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

4 Nominations

Top Gun: Maverick

3 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, The Whale

2 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Blue Jean, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Moonage Daydream, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, The Woman King, Women Talking

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Amsterdam, Argentina, 1985, Athena, Blonde, Brian and Charles, Decision to Leave, Emily, EO, The Fabelmans (!), Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, The Ghost of Richard Harris, Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Quiet Girl, Saint Omer, She Said, Turning Red, Wayfinder, The Wonder

I’ll have a recap up Thursday!

95th Academy Awards Predictions: January 16th Edition

It has been two weeks since my last Oscar predictions and a lot has transpired since. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards aired. SAG nominations came out. So did the BAFTA shortlists and PGA and DGA contenders.

All of this has made the puzzle a little clearer. Yet the fact remains – Oscar will Oscar when noms are released in a week. This is my penultimate forecast. Final predictions will arrive this weekend. Tonight’s estimates are your last look at rankings. It will simply be the listed picks a few days from now with commentary and a runner-up projection in each feature film category.

Here’s the latest developments as we are almost at the end of the line:

The Whale rises as it is back in my top 10 BP nominees. Women Talking falls out. A similar scenario in Supporting Actress as The Whale‘s Hong Chau is in over Women Talking‘s Claire Foy. After victories at the Globes and Critics Choice, Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) vaults over Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) for the #1 slot in Supporting Actress.

On the other hand, I’m putting Austin Butler (Elvis) back in first over Brendan Fraser (The Whale). This is essentially a coin flip with Colin Farrell from Banshees as a legit spoiler.

Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) returns to the directorial quintet and James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) is out.

In Actress, Viola Davis (The Woman King) at last makes the cut with Margot Robbie (Babylon) dropping. That’s not the only news in this derby. I almost went with Ana de Armas (Blonde) instead of Davis. And there’s the recent development of Andrea Riseborough’s online campaign for the micro budget indie drama To Leslie. Numerous performers, including Cate Blanchett, have boarded the Riseborough bandwagon. Two weeks ago – she was on no one’s radar screen. Now the buzz is enough to put her in 8th.

You can read all the movement below and look for those FINAL predictions this weekend!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)

6. Elvis (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-1)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Whale (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Babylon (PR: 11) (E)

12. RRR (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Women Talking (PR: 8) (-5)

14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 14) (E)

15. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Woman King

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+3)

8. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Sarah Polley, Women Talking

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)

5. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway

Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 7) (E)

8. Adam Sandler, Hustle (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)

7. Babylon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Menu (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bardo

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 2) (-1)

4. She Said (PR: 4) (E)

5. Living (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. White Noise (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. Bones and All (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 2) (E)

3. Turning Red (PR: 3) (E)

4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Bad Guys (PR: 6) (E)

7. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)

9. Inu-Oh (PR: 9) (E)

10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)

2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Close (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 4) (E)

5. EO (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saint Omer (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Bardo (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Quiet Girl (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Joyland (PR: 9) (E)

10. Holy Spider (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)

2. All That Breathes (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Navalny (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Territory (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Descendant (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (E)

8. Retrograde (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Bad Axe (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Last Flight Home (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Janes

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)

5. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bardo

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Tár

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Elvis (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Living (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)

9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)

10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tár (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Women Talking

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Elvis (PR: 2 (+1)

2. The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)

4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (E)

7. Amsterdam (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Blonde (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Emancipation (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Crimes of the Future (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nomnees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Women Talking (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-3)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (+1)

2. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (-1)

3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 7) (E)

8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Good Afternoon” from Spirited (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-2)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Elvis (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Batman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)

7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (E)

9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)

4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (E)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nope (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: 9) (E)

10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: 10) (E)

That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:

9 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

7 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick

6 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water

5 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Whale

4 Nominations

Babylon, Tár

3 Nominations

The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness

2 Nominations

Living, The Woman King, Women Talking

1 Nominations

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, EO, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, She Said, Tell It Like a Woman, The Territory, Till, Turning Red, Wendell and Wild