As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our second entry in Best Director and that’s Brady Corbet for The Brutalist. If you missed my post covering Sean Baker from Anora, it’s linked at the bottom.
Previous Directing Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Brady Corbet:
Mr. Corbet is going the Ron Howard route as a child actor turned acclaimed filmmaker and he’s already got hardware to show for it. Yesterday he took home the BAFTA for his direction to go with his Golden Globe from a few weeks back. While Picture and Director often match, it seems his behind the camera achievement for The Brutalist could win him the latter even if the film doesn’t take the top prize.
The Case Against Brady Corbet:
7 out of the last 10 Golden Globe directing winners won the Oscar. It’s also a 70% ratio over the past decade for BAFTA. For DGA, it is 9 out of the last 10 and Corbet didn’t win that one. Instead it was Sean Baker for Anora. He also came up short at Critics Choice where Jon M. Chu (Wicked) was the unexpected victor.
The Verdict:
Corbet seemed like a relatively safe bet before DGA. Now it feels like a coin flip between Baker and him.
My Case Of posts will continue the third hopeful in Best Actress and that’s Mikey Madison in Anora…
The 78th British Academy Film Awards (or BAFTAs) have occurred across the pond. What will be the ripple effect for the Oscars in two weeks? Let’s get into it!
Last weekend, the PGA/DGA/Critics Choice Awards troika rightfully vaulted Sean Baker’s Anora to frontrunner status at the Academy Awards. My feeling (shared by plenty of prognosticators) is that Anora would have a tougher time taking top prize at BAFTA. That turned out to be true, but it did nab an award that could shake up another major competition.
Edward Berger’s Conclave is your BAFTA Best Film and I correctly called that. It wins two years after the director’s All Quiet on the Western Front did the same. A very important reminder: Best Picture at the Oscars and Best Film at BAFTA have matched just twice in the past decade. For those thinking this vaults Conclave into winning status in two weeks, think again. If it can be named Best Ensemble at SAG next weekend, chances improve.
Brady Corbet is Best Director for The Brutalist (another correct call). This adds intrigue to the Academy’s directorial competition as Sean Baker won DGA last weekend for Anora. They should battle it out for Oscar.
Overall I went 17 for 24 in my projections. Before I get into the acting derbies and screenplay contests, let’s do a quick review on where I went right elsewhere. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl is the honoree for Animated Film while Emilia Pérez escaped its controversies to become Best Film Not in the English Language. The Brutalist took Cinematography and Original Score. Wicked is both your Costume Design and Production Design victor. Make Up & Hair went to The Substance. Conclave won Editing with Dune: Part Two emerging in Sound. Outstanding British Debut by a Writer, Director or Producer went to Kneecap with Conclave predictably taking Outstanding British Film.
Here’s where I went wrong in the down the line competitions. I went out on a limb with Better Man in Special Visual Effects and it was Dune: Part Two. In the Rising Star Competition, the Brits chose one of their own (David Jonsson) instead of Mikey Madison. Jonsson received plenty of complimentary notices in 2024 for Alien: Romulus. We are not done with Madison though.
In the newly created Children’s and Family Film race, it was Wallace & Gromit again and not my predicted The Wild Robot. And Anora aced Best Casting over Conclave. Finally, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story is your Best Documentary despite not being up at Oscar. I went with No Other Land which is considered the soft Academy favorite.
Now let’s get to our acting and writing showdowns. In maybe the biggest upset of all, Jesse Eisenberg won Original Screenplay for A Real Pain. I had Anora projected with The Brutalist as my runner-up. Truth be told, my second runner-up would’ve been The Substance so Pain managing this was truly unexpected. On the other hand, Conclave is the Adapted Screenplay winner which was expected.
Three of the four frontrunners in the acting races made English podium walks today and solidified their positions. That would be Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) as Best Actor and Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) in their respective supporting fields. For any of this trio to be denied a sweep, the SAG Awards would need to provide that disruption next weekend.
The other frontrunner after winning the Golden Globe and Critics Choice was Demi Moore in The Substance. Yet the BAFTAs went with Mikey Madison (Anora) and this sets up an unpredictable competition between them.
Bottom line: the BAFTAs made Best Actress and Director more intriguing while I wouldn’t read too much into the Conclave selection. Keep an eye on the blog for more speculation as we hurdle toward Oscar night.
Here’s the breakdown of movies that won BAFTAs:
4 Wins
The Brutalist, Conclave
2 Wins
Anora, Dune: Part Two,Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked
1 Win
Kneecap, The Substance, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our second entry in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Kieran Culkin in Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain. If you missed my post covering Yura Borisov in Anora, it’s linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Kieran Culkin:
Ever since A Real Pain premiered at Sundance over a year ago, Culkin has been considered a strong possibility for awards play. That narrative has carried over and intensified as the Succession Emmy winner has already picked up the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award. He’s also vying for BAFTA and SAG.
The Case Against Kieran Culkin:
The fact that A Real Pain didn’t nab a BP nod from the Academy is a tad concerning. Christopher Plummer (Beginners) is the last Supporting Actor recipient whose film wasn’t up in the big race and that was 13 years ago.
The Verdict:
Culkin is unquestionably the favorite. If someone else snags BAFTA or SAG (say Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown or Guy Pearce in The Brutalist), it could get more interesting.
My Case Of posts will continue with the second hopeful in Best Director and that’s Brady Corbet for The Brutalist…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our second entry in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Ariana Grande in Jon M. Chu’s Wicked. If you missed my post on Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown, it’s linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Ariana Grande:
As Glinda the Good in the hugely popular adaptation of the stage play, Grande scored big love from audiences and critics. It resulted in nominations at the Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. This is an opportunity for the Academy to recognize one of the most widely seen performances of the evening.
The Case Against Ariana Grande:
At the Globes and Critics Choice, she’s fallen short to another musical performance in Zoe Saldaña from Emilia Pérez.
The Verdict:
Grande is in the same boat as my previous post with Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown. Both are considered the runner-ups because they’ve yet to win a significant precursor. Like Chalamet, I think Grande needs to take SAG in order to have any real shot of taking gold over Saldaña. She could score a mild upset if the recent Pérez controversy extends beyond Karla Sofia Gascón.
My Case Of posts will continue with the next contender in Supporting Actor and that’s Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our second entry in Best Actor and that’s Timothée Chalamet in James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown. If you missed my post on Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), it’s linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
Best Actor (2017, Call Me by Your Name) – lost to Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
The Case for Timothée Chalamet:
He’s essentially Hollywood’s IT leading man of the moment coming off Wonka, Dune: Part Two, and this biopic where he embodies Bob Dylan. Plenty of critics have hailed it as career best work and he’s landed precursor nods everywhere that matter (Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, SAG). Chalamet would make Oscar history as the youngest victor in this competition.
The Case Against Timothée Chalamet:
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) has already taken the Globe and Critics Choice as he seeks his second gold statue. Side note – he’s the current record holder for youngest Best Actor recipient for The Pianist (2002). Voters might figure Chalamet will have other opportunities as his career progresses.
The Verdict:
Chalamet is rightly seen as the runner-up. If he can snag SAG next weekend, this becomes a race. If it goes to Brody, the sweep is likely on.
My Case Of posts will continue with our next Supporting Actress contender and that’s Ariana Grande in Wicked…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our second entry in Best Actress and that’s Karla Sofia Gascón for Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez. If you missed my post on Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), it’s linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Karla Sofia Gascón:
The Spanish actress has been nominated in the key quartet of precursors with the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. Playing the title character in the most nominated picture, a Gascón victory would be history making as she’s the first transgender performer nominated in the category.
The Case Against Karla Sofia Gascón:
Well… it’s voluminous but let’s start with the non-obvious. There’s been no precursor wins of note and she lost to Demi Moore (The Substance) at the Globes and Critics Choice. While she may play the titular role, her costar Zoe Saldaña has been the focus of attention in Supporting Actress. Then there’s the headline making controversy. Last month, a number of Gascón’s social media posts from a few years back resurfaced containing troubling comments. The firestorm was enough for Netflix to essentially drop any campaign for her in Best Actress and refocus all attention on its other nominations.
The Verdict:
Gascón wasn’t a real threat to win before the scandal and is even less so now.
My Case Of posts will continue with the second contender in Best Actor and that’s Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown…
The 78th edition of the BAFTAs, the U.K.’s version of the Academy Awards, occur this Sunday and it could help shape an already topsy-turvy awards season.
I’m going to give you a winner and runner-up prediction for each feature film race. I won’t spend much time pontificating as I do enough of that for the Oscars. However, it is worth noting BAFTA’s Best Film and the Academy’s Best Picture have matched just twice in the past 10 ceremonies (2020’s Nomadland, last year’s Oppenheimer). With victories at Critics Choice/PGA/DGA last weekend, Anora has anointed itself the Oscar frontrunner. And you could argue that it makes it easier not to select Sean Baker’s pic for BAFTA’s biggest prize.
That’s what I’m doing as I believe Conclave and The Brutalist could battle for BAFTA and I’m giving the slight edge to the former. We’re talking coin flip territory. Don’t get me wrong. Anora could take this and solidify its status even more so. I just have a hunch otherwise.
BAFTA/Oscar matches improve in other major races. For Director and Supporting Actress, it’s 7 out of the past 10. For Actor and Supporting Actor, it is 8 and we have 9/10 in Actress. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice have elevated Demi Moore, Adrien Brody, Zoe Saldaña, and Kieran Culkin to favorited status. The smart money is on that quartet and I’m not projecting an upset.
Here’s my rundown and I’ll have recap up Sunday!
BEST FILM
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
Predicted Winner: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Edward Berger, Conclave
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)
Predicted Winner: Demi Moore, The Substance
Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Predicted Winner: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Runner-Up: Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance
Predicted Winner: Anora
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Flow, Inside Out 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Predicted Winner: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Runner-Up: Flow
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper
Predicted Winner: No Other Land
Runner-Up: Daughters
BEST FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Predicted Winner: Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: I’m Still Here
BEST CASTING
Anora, The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Kneecap
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: Anora
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu
Predicted Winner: The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked
Predicted Winner: Wicked
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST EDITING
Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST MAKE UP & HAIR
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
Predicted Winner: The Substance
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot
Predicted Winner: The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked
Predicted Winner: Wicked
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST SOUND
Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, The Substance, Wicked
Predicted Winner: Dune: Part Two
Runner-Up: Wicked
BEST SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
Predicted Winner: Better Man
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
Outstanding British Film
Bird, Blitz, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, Love Lies Bleeding, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: Kneecap
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Flow, Kensuke’s Kingdom, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Predicted Winner: The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
EE Rising Star Award
Marisa Abela, Jharrel Jerome, David Jonsson, Mikey Madison, Nabhaan Rizwan
Predicted Winner: Mikey Madison
Runner-Up: Marisa Abela
And that leaves us with these pictures generating these numbers of victories:
5 Wins
Conclave
4 Wins
The Brutalist
2 Wins
Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked
1 Win
Anora (two if you count Madison’s Rising Star victory), Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kneecap, No Other Land, A Real Pain, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP nominees and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Director and that’s Sean Baker for Anora.
Previous Oscar Directing Nominations:
None
The Case for Sean Baker:
After winning Best Picture at PGA and Critics Choice last weekend, Anora became the frontrunner for the same prize at the Oscars. For Mr. Baker, his chances went way up after taking the Directors Guild of America (DGA) award on Saturday. For context, 21 of the 24 DGA victors in the 21st century have taken done the same from the Academy. He scored noms at BAFTA, Critics Choice, and the Golden Globes.
The Case Against Sean Baker:
He lost that Golden Globe to Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) and Jon M. Chu (Wicked) was the unexpected recipient at Critics Choice. While Chu isn’t nominated for the Oscar, voters could opt for Corbet’s more epic in nature project and honor Baker in Original Screenplay. Since he is the editor of Anora, he could also win that gold statue so that’s another at bat.
The Verdict:
For quite some time, it looked like Baker would be a first-time Academy honoree in Screenplay and perhaps Screenplay only. Now he’s in contention for four in one night with Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Editing. His chances for the filmmaking competition skyrocketed after DGA.
My Case Of posts will continue with our second hopeful in Best Actress and that’s Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP nominees and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Yura Borisov in Sean Baker’s Anora.
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
None
The Case for Yura Borisov:
As sympathetic henchman Igor to Mikey Madison’s title character, the Russian actor has run the table with nominations in significant precursors including the Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and SAG. After a weekend in which his picture won top prizes at Critics Choice and PGA and Baker’s direction took DGA, Anora has become the Academy’s frontrunner and perhaps those coattails could sweep him in.
The Case Against Yura Borisov:
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is the Globe and Critics Choice recipient and could sweep through the season. If he doesn’t, Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) and Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) are in BP nominees as well and both possess veteran careers that could lead to an overdue feeling.
The Verdict:
A victory isn’t much of a real possibility unless he surprises at BAFTA or SAG.
My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Best Director and that’s Sean Baker for (you guessed it) Anora…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP nominees and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Monica Barbaro in James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown.
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
None
The Case for Monica Barbaro:
As Bob Dylan’s on and off again flame Joan Baez, Barbaro has a breakout role as the legendary folk singer. The SAG awards put her in their mix and the picture itself scored an impressive eight nominations overall.
The Case Against Monica Barbaro:
Folks making up the voting branches at Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the Golden Globes did not nominate her. Zoe Saldaña from Emilia Pérez has dominated the precursors.
The Verdict:
Of Unknown‘s three acting nominees – Timothée Chalamet in Actor, Edward Norton in Supporting Actor, and here – I would rank Barbaro third in terms of winning possibility.
My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Supporting Actor and that’s Yura Borisov from Anora…
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