Tag: Bad Boys: Ride or Die

July 12-14 Box Office Predictions

Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum are hoping to land a third place showing behind the current animation domination with Fly to the Moon this Friday. We also have the critically acclaimed horror thriller Longlegs with Maika Monroe and Nicolas Cage and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

Fly Me to the Moon Box Office Prediction
Longlegs Box Office Prediction

A low double digits premiere might get Moon to third after Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2. The former got off to a holiday weekend start in line with expectations while Inside continues its enormously financially potent run. I have Despicable dropping in the low 50s range with Out easing in the lower to mid 40s.

The worst case scenario for Moon would be fifth depending on how Longlegs debuts and A Quiet Place: Day One holds up in weekend 3. Longlegs is a wild card and it could exceed expectations. I have it just topping $10 million and that would put it in a close race with its genre competitor and perhaps even Moon. I’ll give the newcomer an edge over Quiet, but spots 3-5 will be a fascinating watch this time around.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 playing out:

1. Despicable Me 4

Predicted Gross: $36.4 million

2. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $17.7 million

3. Fly Me to the Moon

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million

4. Longlegs

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million

5. A Quiet Place: Day One

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

Box Office Results (July 5-7)

As mentioned, Illumination Entertainment performed as anticipated with Despicable Me 4. Having opened on Wednesday the 3rd, the four-quel (and sixth entry in the series when counting the Minions titles) made $75 million from Friday to Sunday and $122.6 million when counting its two extra days. That’s slightly below my respective estimates of $79.4 million and $126.3 million and certainly enough to keep this money minting franchise going.

Inside Out 2 dropped to second after three weeks atop the charts with $30.3 million, a tad under my $32.6 million take. The four-week gross is $534 million.

A Quiet Place: Day One tumbled a somewhat troubling 61% in third with $20.6 million. I was more generous at $24 million. The two-week tally is nearing nine digits with $93 million.

Ti West’s third pic in his horror trilogy MaXXXine was fourth with a so-so $6.7 million. That does top my $5.7 million forecast and it is higher than predecessors X and Pearl. This should fade quickly.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die rounded out the top five with $6.6 million (I said $6.8 million) for a five-week $177 million haul.

Kevin Costner’s Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 was sixth in its sophomore outing with $5.3 million, in line with my $5.4 million prediction. The Western’s underwhelming total is $22 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 5-7 Box Office Predictions

Inside Out 2 has been responsible for animation domination and kickstarting the summer season for the past three weeks. Now it’s time for a new sequel to take over as Despicable Me 4 debuts Wednesday and looks to rule the holiday frame. We also have Ti West’s horror trilogy capper MaXXXine out Friday. My detailed prediction posts on both can be accessed here:

Despicable Me 4 Box Office Prediction
MaXXXine Box Office Prediction

While not setting a franchise record like other follow-ups lately, I have Despicable Me 4 from Illumination Entertainment premiering in line with other entrees. That means a three-day near $80 million with over $125 million when counting Wednesday and Independence Day.

As for MaXXXine, my readers think I’m low. However, I’m struggling to see why it would debut too much higher than predecessors X and Pearl. I have it slated for a fifth place showing, but perhaps I’m not being generous enough.

Inside Out 2 will slide to second with perhaps a low to mid 40s percentage ease considering the Despicable competition. A Quiet Place: Day One may experience a 50-55% drop after its series best start (more on that below). The 4 slot (barring a MaXXXine over performance) should go to Bad Boys: Ride or Die with Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 in sixth after its so-so unveiling.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Despicable Me 4

Predicted Gross: $79.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $126.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $32.6 million

3. A Quiet Place: Day One

Predicted Gross: $24 million

4. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

5. MaXXXine

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

6. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

Box Office Results (June 28-30)

Despite the aforementioned loud opening from A Quiet Place: Day One, Disney/Pixar ruled the roost for a third weekend with Inside Out 2. It took in $57.5 million (just below my $61.5 million prediction) for a three-week haul of $469 million. The sequel also crossed a billion bucks worldwide.

Day One was second with $52.2 million, eclipsing my estimate of $46.3 million and the $50.2 million that A Quiet Place earned back in 2018. I do think its sophomore weekend dip will be more pronounced than part 1 (which only fell by a third). Either way it’s a fine result for a franchise that looks to keep chugging along.

The news wasn’t as good for Kevin Costner as his Western epic Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 lassoed $11 million in third compared to my $14.8 million projection. Reportedly self-funded by its star/writer/director, this is on the lower end of its range and troubling considering the rumored $100 million price tag.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die was fourth with $10.3 million (I said $11.2 million) for a four-week gross of $165 million.

Indian sci-fi tale Kalki 2898 AD was fifth with $5.2 million and I incorrectly had it outside the high five and didn’t do a forecast.

The Bikeriders plummeted 66% to sixth with $3.3 million (I was generous at $4.6 million) for a mere $16 million in ten days.

Finally, Yorgos Lanthimos’s anthology Kinds of Kindness was ninth on just under 500 screens with $1.5 million. I thought it might get a bit more with a $3.2 million call.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 28-30 Box Office Predictions

Horror prequel A Quiet Place: Day One will attempt to make enough noise to knock Inside Out 2 from its third week atop the charts, but that could be a tall order. We also have Kevin Costner’s epic Western Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 and the semi-wide expansion of the Yorgos Lanthimos anthology Kinds of Kindness out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio right here:

A Quiet Place: Day One Box Office Prediction
Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 Box Office Prediction
Kinds of Kindness Box Office Prediction

My mid 40s projection for Quiet would be right in line with expectations and a tad under predecessor A Quiet Place Part II from 2021. That should put it firmly in second.

That’s because animated box office behemoth Inside Out 2 might ease around 40% for a third weekend in first after its record breaking performance during its second frame (more on that below).

Horizon is a legit question mark. Some estimates have it as low as $10 million and that would likely put it in fourth behind the fourth outing of Bad Boys: Ride or Die. Despite lackluster reviews and a three-hour runtime, I think it might manage low teens for third if enough Yellowstone viewers turn up.

The Bikeriders, with significant competition for adult eyeballs, should fall around 50% to fifth after a so-so start. As for Kinds of Kindness (which just scored the biggest PTA of 2024 on five screens), it is expanding to approximately 500 venues Friday and a gross just above $3 million might be enough for sixth.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $61.5 million

2. A Quiet Place: Day One

Predicted Gross: $46.3 million

3. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

4. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

5. The Bikeriders

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

6. Kinds of Kindness

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (June 21-23)

Disney/Pixar broke its own record (previously held by Incredibles 2) with the second highest animated weekend in history at $101.2 million. That bests my $93.6 million projection as the mighty sequel is up to $356 million in just ten days. A billion plus worldwide haul seems to be in the making. This is also vying for title of summer 2024’s heftiest domestic grosser with Deadpool & Wolverine seemingly the only challenger.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die held in second at $18.8 million, a bit shy of my $21.3 million take. The three-week gross is $147 million.

The Bikeriders couldn’t quite reach double digits in third with $9.6 million compared to my $10.5 million forecast. With an unimpressive B Cinemascore, this should stall out in subsequent weekends.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was fourth with $3.8 million (I said $4.1 million) for a seven-week tally of $164 million.

The Garfield Movie closely followed in fifth with $3.7 million and I incorrectly had it outside the high five. It has made $85 million after five weeks.

IF was sixth with $2.7 million as the family friendly original hit $106 million after six weeks.

I was a little too kind to Russell Crowe’s The Exorcism. His second feature with this subject matter in a year’s time (after The Pope’s Exorcist) was underwater in seventh with $2.4 million. I predicted $3.2 million.

Finally, I didn’t do an estimate for the critically acclaimed comedy Thelma with June Squibb. It was eighth with $2.3 million which is pretty decent considering it’s on less than 1300 screens.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 21-23 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (06/20): We have yet to even see a theater count for The Exorcism so I’m downgrading my estimate from $6.2 million to $3.2 million

The Bikeriders and The Exorcism enter a marketplace in which Inside Out 2 greatly exceeded expectations last weekend. The summer box office is finally looking up, but the two new entries could struggle for exposure. My detailed prediction posts on them can be accessed here:

The Bikeriders Box Office Prediction
The Exorcism Box Office Prediction

There’s no doubt that Inside Out 2 will be perched in 1st for a second weekend. A high 30s to low 40s decline would put it in the low to mid 90s. A sequel in its third frame – Bad Boys: Ride or Die – should remain in the runner-up slot with a mid 30s to 40% ease.

Now we get to the newbies. With decent reviews and the star power of Austin Butler, Tom Hardy, and Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders could still sputter with a third place showing. I think the big question is whether it reaches double digits and I have it barely accomplishing that minor goal.

As for The Exorcism, Russell Crowe’s second horror pic in as many years dealing with the subject matter probably won’t reach the $10 million that The Pope’s Exorcist did in April of 2023.

The five spot may go to holdover Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes in its seventh week of release and here’s how I have the high five playing out:

1. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $93.6 million

2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

3. The Bikeriders

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

4. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

5. The Exorcism

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (June 14-16)

Disney/Pixar were feeling all the happy emotions as Inside Out 2 blasted past forecasts for the 2nd best animated opening of all time. That would also be the 2nd largest Pixar haul behind record holder Incredibles 2. The sequel to the 2015 Oscar winning blockbuster posted $154.2 million, way beyond my $92.4 million call. It’s also the biggest 2024 premiere thus far.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die only fell 40% after its huge start with $33.7 million, riding past my $29.8 million take. The fourth entry in the three-decade old franchise has amassed $113 million.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes actually rose 2% to $5.5 million in third, dwarfing my $3.1 million projection as this sequel’s six-week tally is $158 million.

The over performance of Inside Out 2 caused other family friendly titles to plummet. The Garfield Movie was fourth with $4.7 million (I said $6.1 million) for $78 million in four weeks. IF was fifth with $3.6 million (I said $4.9 million) for $101 million in five weeks.

Finally, The Watchers was sixth in its sophomore frame with $3.5 million compared to my $2.9 million prediction. The two-week total is $13 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 14-16 Box Office Predictions

Disney/Pixar looks to dominate the box office charts in a way they haven’t for some time with Inside Out 2. The sequel to the 2015 hit is the only newcomer in the marketplace and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Inside Out 2 Box Office Prediction

After some fairly underwhelming grosses for the studio, Out could exceed the $90 million premiere achieved by its predecessor nine summers ago. I have it just doing so for what would be the fifth largest Pixar opening in its nearly three decade history.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die got off to a sizzling start (more on that below) and a mid to high 40s decline would have it in the $30 million range for its sophomore outing.

Spots 3 and 4 are likely to be a family friendly zone with The Garfield Movie and IF. Both will probably see slightly heftier declines than this past weekend considering the Mouse Factory competition.

Ishana Night Shyamalan’s horror debut The Watchers failed to attract genre viewers and I suspect its second weekend will see a dip in the 60% region. That could mean Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes stays in fifth with The Watchers in sixth.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $92.4 million

2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

Predicted Gross: $29.8 million

3. The Garfield Movie

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

4. IF

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

6. The Watchers

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (June 7-9)

Will Smith can breathe a sigh of relief as Bad Boys: Ride or Die topped estimates with a boisterous $56.5 million. While that’s under the $62 million that 2020 predecessor Bad Boys for Life achieved, it’s still an impressive number considering this summer of underachievers. I didn’t give it enough credit with a $47.3 million forecast. For Smith, it’s a sign that moviegoers are willing to shell out their bucks after The Slap. Don’t be surprised to see him and Martin Lawrence back for a fifth adventure.

The Garfield Movie was second with a meager 29% slide at $10 million, ahead of my $8.9 million call. The three-week total is $68 million as it hopes to reach $100 million domestically.

IF only fell 25% for third at $7.8 million, in range with my $7.4 million projection. It is approaching nine digits with $93 million after four weeks.

The aforementioned The Watchers couldn’t capitalize on the Shyamalan family name as poor reviews sunk it. The gross was just $7 million for fourth compared to my $10.2 million estimate.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes rounded out the top five with $5.4 million (I said $6 million) for five-week earnings of $149 million.

Lastly, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga plummeted another 61% in sixth with $4.2 million. I was kinder at $5.7 million as the prequel has only hit $58 million after three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 7-9 Box Office Predictions

Sony Pictures and theater owners are desperately looking for Will Smith and Martin Lawrence’s Bad Boys: Ride or Die to inject some life into the box office this weekend. We also have The Watchers, the horror debut from Ishana Night Shyamalan, daughter of M. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Bad Boys: Ride or Die Box Office Prediction
The Watchers Box Office Prediction

While I don’t have Ride revving up to the same numbers that predecessor Bad Boys for Life managed in January 2020, my mid to high 40s projection puts it in line with its somewhat muted expectations.

As I’ve been mentioning frequently in 2024, scary movies have struggled even managing $10M+ as of late for their starts. I do believe The Watchers gets there, but not by a lot for a so-so second place showing.

After rising to #1 (more on that below), The Garfield Movie should drop to third while IF appears poised for a one spot slide to fourth. That’s because Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga is bound to see a larger percentage decline. It may even fall from second to sixth depending on how Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes holds up.

And with that, my top 6 take on the frame ahead:

1. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

Predicted Gross: $47.3 million

2. The Watchers

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

3. The Garfield Movie

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

4. IF

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

5. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $6 million

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

Box Office Results (May 31-June 2)

The woes continued at multiplexes with no major new releases even sniffing $5 million. It’s a bit of a cinematic litter box right now and The Garfield Movie elevated to first with $14 million. That’s ahead of my $12 million projection for its sophomore outing as it’s up to $51 million.

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga plummeted 59%, as I figured, to second with $10.7 million. That’s on target with my $11.3 million take as the prequel has amassed a mere $49 million in its two weeks.

IF held up nicely in third with $10.5 million (I said $10.1 million) for a three-week gross of $80 million.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was fourth with $8.9 million, in range with my $8.5 million call. After four weeks, the sequel is perched at $140 million.

I incorrectly didn’t have estimates for The Fall Guy or The Strangers: Chapter 1. The former was fifth with $4.1 million for $80 million after five frames while the latter took in $3.7 million in sixth for $28 million after three weeks.

That’s because I had Japan’s animated Haiyku!! The Dumpster Battle in fifth place, but it was seventh with $3.6 million. I was darn close for the forecast with $3.9 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Bad Boys: Ride or Die Box Office Prediction

Nearly four and a half years ago, Will Smith and Martin Lawrence were riding high with Bad Boys for Life. The third entry in the buddy cop franchise that began nearly 30 years ago set series best marks with $73 million over the four-day MLK frame in January 2020. It ended up with just over $200 million domestically.

And then things got weird. Life was the last mega-grosser before the pandemic hit and stalled the industry for many months. Smith, meanwhile, became embroiled in the infamous Oscar slap controversy two years later with Chris Rock. The directors of part 3 – Adil El Arbi and Bilall Fallah – followed Life up with Batgirl which Warner Bros shockingly decided to shelve for eternity.

So it kind of feels like there’s a lot riding on Bad Boys: Ride or Die when it opens June 7th. Smith and Lawrence are back alongside Joe Pantoliano, Vanessa Hudgens, Alexander Ludwig, Paola Núñez, Jacob Scipio, and DJ Khaled. The Batgirl makers return as well. Newcomers to part 4 include Tiffany Haddish, Eric Dane, Ioan Gruffudd, Rhea Seehorn, Melanie Liburd, and Tasha Smith (pulling an Aunt Viv and replacing Theresa Randle as Lawrence’s wife).

Bad Boys hopes to shake up a summer season where plenty of titles have fallen below expectations. This is also the first test of Smith’s star power post slap. I do not expect it to match the earnings of its predecessor. Part 3 took in $62 million for the three-day portion of its premiere. Sony would probably be satisfied with that and it would quell any “Smith’s career is dead” chatter.

I’m estimating a start that might not totally quell that conversation in the mid to late 40s.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die opening weekend prediction: $47.3 million

For my The Watchers prediction, click here:

The Watchers Box Office Prediction