Tag: Bad Boys

Bad Boys: Ride or Die Box Office Prediction

Nearly four and a half years ago, Will Smith and Martin Lawrence were riding high with Bad Boys for Life. The third entry in the buddy cop franchise that began nearly 30 years ago set series best marks with $73 million over the four-day MLK frame in January 2020. It ended up with just over $200 million domestically.

And then things got weird. Life was the last mega-grosser before the pandemic hit and stalled the industry for many months. Smith, meanwhile, became embroiled in the infamous Oscar slap controversy two years later with Chris Rock. The directors of part 3 – Adil El Arbi and Bilall Fallah – followed Life up with Batgirl which Warner Bros shockingly decided to shelve for eternity.

So it kind of feels like there’s a lot riding on Bad Boys: Ride or Die when it opens June 7th. Smith and Lawrence are back alongside Joe Pantoliano, Vanessa Hudgens, Alexander Ludwig, Paola Núñez, Jacob Scipio, and DJ Khaled. The Batgirl makers return as well. Newcomers to part 4 include Tiffany Haddish, Eric Dane, Ioan Gruffudd, Rhea Seehorn, Melanie Liburd, and Tasha Smith (pulling an Aunt Viv and replacing Theresa Randle as Lawrence’s wife).

Bad Boys hopes to shake up a summer season where plenty of titles have fallen below expectations. This is also the first test of Smith’s star power post slap. I do not expect it to match the earnings of its predecessor. Part 3 took in $62 million for the three-day portion of its premiere. Sony would probably be satisfied with that and it would quell any “Smith’s career is dead” chatter.

I’m estimating a start that might not totally quell that conversation in the mid to late 40s.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die opening weekend prediction: $47.3 million

For my The Watchers prediction, click here:

The Watchers Box Office Prediction

Bad Boys for Life Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (01/16): Better than expected reviews are pushing my estimate from $38.6 million to $45.6 million

A quarter century after the original made Will Smith an action hero, he teams again with Martin Lawrence in Bad Boys for Life next weekend. This is the duo’s third collaboration playing cops battling European baddies and Michael Bay (who made the first two) is away from the director’s chair with Adil El Arbi and Bilall Fallah taking over. Franchise players Joe Pantoliano and Theresa Randle are back and newcomers include Vanessa Hudgens, Alexander Ludwig, Charles Melton, and Paola Nunez.

The MLK holiday frame caps off a busy few months for the Artist Formerly Known as Fresh Prince. Last summer, he had a huge hit with Aladdin. In the fall, he experienced a flop with Gemini Man and voiced the lead character in the decently performing family pic Spies in Disguise. 

Back in the spring of 1995, the original Boys took in $15 million for its start with an eventual $65 million gross. Eight years later, Bad Boys II tripled that debut with $46 million with an overall tally of $138 million.

Seventeen years is a long break between entries and 2019 showed us that franchise fatigue was real in many cases. One example was Men in Black: International, which Mr. Smith steered clear from.

Mu guess is that part 3 won’t match its predecessor’s earnings and that’s even with the extra Monday due to the holiday. A decent comp could be Ride Along 2, which made $41 million over MLK four years back. That was under the $48 million that the first Ride hauled in. I’ll say Smith and Lawrence’s reported last ride hovers around the $40 million mark.

Bad Boys for Life opening weekend prediction: $45.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Dolittle prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/09/dolittle-box-office-prediction/