Ethan Hawke, fresh off his third acting Oscar nod for Blue Moon, headlines the 1930s set survival drama The Weight. Directed by Padraic McKinley and scheduled for domestic release in September, it premiered at the Sundance Film Festival and has also played Berlin. Costars include Julia Jones, Austin Amelio, and Russell Crowe.
Plenty of reviews are praising this as an old-fashioned yarn with 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. The 70 on Metacritic is more indicative of positive write-ups expressing some reservations. A lot of the kudos are going to Hawke’s performance.
Indie outlet Vertical picked up distribution rights. This is not a company who’ve successfully played much in the awards campaigning space. They’ll need to up their game for Hawke to be in contention for a back-to-back nomination. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
This is the first time I’ve written a second Oscar Predictions post on the same picture, but it feels warranted with Richard Linklater’s Hit Man. Why? Happy to explain. The dark rom com premiered to sizzling buzz in Venice and Toronto last fall (the RT score is still an impressive 97%). I wrote my initial post on its awards chances on September 5th. You can peruse it here:
At that juncture, its distribution was up in the air. I assumed it would find a release in 2023. However, Netflix scooped up it up and it’s out for streaming viewership this weekend some nine months plus later. A lot has changed since that festival birth.
Glen Powell is an even bigger star. Last September, I talked about how he was hot off a supporting role in Top Gun: Maverick. Now he’s fresh from a headlining turn in the unexpected rom com blockbuster Anyone but You. He’s a month away from starring insummer tentpole Twisters. In the fall of ’23, I stated that Best Actor was too crowded already for him to vie for a slot. That’s not the case in June of ’24 though we don’t know if there will be room for him among forthcoming dramatic performances in the second half of the year. When I did my last forecast two weeks ago, I had him in the quintet for Actor. We’ll see if he remains there when I do my next update on Sunday. I do think he’s viable and I do believe he gets a Golden Globe nod in the Musical/Comedy race for lead Actor. If he doesn’t, that probably means Netflix did a poor job campaigning. Adria Arjona, his love interest, could be in the mix for Actress in the same classification. For that matter, a GG mention in Best Picture (Musical/Comedy) might materialize.
Not everything has changed. The strongest Oscar chance is in Adapted Screenplay where Linklater has been nominated thrice before with Before Sunset, Before Midnight, and Boyhood. If and when that happens, Powell would be along for the ride since he co-scripted.
As for BP itself, you never know. I’ve had it listed in the bottom rungs of my top 25 possibilities. While a long shot, it could hit if too many of the upcoming hopefuls fall short of expectations. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Glen Powell got a whole lotta exposure last year with his memorable supporting turn in Top Gun: Maverick. It sounds like he’s got a heckuva starring vehicle via Hit Man, Richard Linklater’s latest that premiered at Venice. The action comedy is cowritten by the director and his star. The buzz out of Italy is strong and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%.
Linklater is a three-time screenwriting Oscar nominee for 2004’s Before Sunset and 2013’s Before Midnight (in Adapted) and 2014’s Boyhood (in Original). Hit Man is based on a magazine article. Despite the kudos for Powell’s performance (Best Actor is just too crowded already), it’s Adapted Screenplay where this stands a shot at recognition for the two scribes.
Assuming this is slotted in Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes, I wouldn’t discount this nabbing a Best Picture and Actor nomination from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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