Tag: Aubrey Plaza

August 22-24 Box Office Predictions

We’re in the dog days of August as Weapons seeks to three-peat at #1 this weekend though a fascinating challenger could emerge depending on Netflix’s reporting. KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event looks to capitalize on its massively successful animated streaming numbers with a Saturday and Sunday engagement of theatrical screenings. We also have Ethan Coen’s dark comedy Honey Don’t! out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event Box Office Prediction
Honey Don’t! Box Office Prediction

KPop Demon Hunters is already the highest viewed Netflix animated picture in history. The streamer decided to give it the silver screen sing-along treatment this Saturday and Sunday only. Here’s the catch: Netflix usually doesn’t report their numbers. I think they could make an exception due to the unprecedented nature of this release. If they do, I believe low teens is doable and maybe even more. If it manages to post a 1st or 2nd place debut, I would think Netflix would want the bragging rights. We shall see what they decide.

As for Don’t!, my lowly $1.8 million projection won’t get it in the top five regardless of whether KPop unveils its grosses. After receiving middling reviews from Cannes and being put out on a meager 1200 screens, look for this to fade rapidly.

That leaves holdovers and Weapons may see a drop in the mid 30s to repeat at #1. In fact, the top five should remain the same quintet if KPop isn’t in the mix. However, I suspect Nobody 2 might have the largest percentage drop and that could result in a fall from third to fifth (or fourth to sixth). That would allow The Fantastic Four: First Steps and The Bad Guys 2 to each rise a spot with Freakier Friday either remaining runner-up or being third.

Here’s my top 6 take with the caveat that KPop‘s placement might not occur:

1. Weapons

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million

**2. KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

3. Freakier Friday

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

5. The Bad Guys 2

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

6. Nobody

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

Box Office Results (August 15-17)

Weapons easily pummeled the competition yet again in its sophomore frame with $24.4 million, right in line with my $24.9 million call. Zach Cregger’s critically hailed horror thriller is up to $88 million after ten days.

Freakier Friday was second in weekend #2 with $14.2 million, slightly exceeding my forecast of $13 million. The Disney sequel has made $54 million.

Action sequel Nobody 2 with Bob Odenkirk opened at the lower end of expectations with $9.2 million, failing to catch my $11.3 million projection. While it managed to outdo its 2021 predecessor, the original faced COVID challenges.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps was fourth with $9 million (I said $7.5 million). The MCU pic’s tally is $247 million after four weeks.

The Bad Guys 2 rounded out the top five with $7.5 million. The 29% decline meant it surpassed my $5.5 million take. The animated sequel has earned $53 million in three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Honey Don’t! Box Office Prediction

Out August 22nd, the dark detective comedy Honey Don’t! marks the second feature in Ethan Coen and wife Tricia Cooke’s self-proclaimed “lesbian B-movie trilogy”. The first was last year’s Drive-Away Dolls and the follow-up returns Margaret Qualley in a starring role. Costars include Aubrey Plaza, Charlie Day, Billy Eichner, and Chris Evans.

The Focus Features product debuted at Cannes to muted reactions. Rotten Tomatoes stands at just 42% with 46 on Metacritic. Looking at comps, Dolls is the glaringly obvious one. It debuted to a lowly $2.4 million in February 2024. That premiered on over 2200 screens while Don’t is scheduled for a mere 1200.

With scant buzz and middling reviews, I’m not even sure this reaches two bucks for starters.

Honey Don’t opening weekend prediction: $1.8 million

For my KPop Demon Hunters prediction, click here:

KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Honey Don’t!

Before to its domestic debut in August, Honey Don’t! dropped at Cannes for a midnight screening. The crime comedy is Ethan Coen and wife Tricia Cooke’s follow-up to last year’s Drive-Away Dolls. It also stars Margaret Qualley with a supporting cast including Aubrey Plaza, Charlie Day, and Chris Evans.

Marking Ethan’s second narrative work sans brother Joel (and with Cookie co-scripting), Don’t! mostly arrived with a shrug in France. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 54% with Metacritic at 47. That’s below the respective 63/56 ratings for Dolls. Coen’s “first” picture never came close to being an awards contender and this won’t either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Megalopolis Box Office Prediction

Financed on his own dime for $120 million, legendary filmmaker Francis Ford Coppola brings his passion project Megalopolis to the big screen on September 27th. The sci-fi epic has a sprawling cast to match its budget including Adam Driver, Giancarlo Esposito, Nathalie Emmanuel, Aubrey Plaza, Shia LaBeouf, Jon Voight, Laurence Fishburne, Talia Shire, Jason Schwartzman, Kathryn Hunter, Chloe Fineman, and Dustin Hoffman.

This is only Coppola’s fourth feature in the 21st century and his first in 13 years (since the little seen Twixt). Cinephiles should have an interest on that fact alone, but there should be struggles for this to have any sort of mainstream breakthrough. When Megalopolis premiered at Cannes, it did so with mixed to negative reactions (the RT score is 52 and Metacritic is 59). It may not help that Coppola was recently subject to news stories about unprofessional behavior on set.

Lionsgate picked up distribution and they’ve had a string of failures in recent weeks including Borderlands and The Crow. This may turn out to be the biggest bomb of all. Tracking is suggesting only mid single digits and I don’t see it getting beyond that.

Megalopolis opening weekend prediction: $4.7 million

For my The Wild Robot prediction, click here:

The Wild Robot Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Megalopolis

Instead of saying it’s made with spirit, you can accurately say Megalopolis was made with spirits. As in wine because legendary filmmaker Francis Ford Coppola reportedly sold a hefty portion of that business to finance the $120 million production. This is Coppola’s dream project (in development since the late 1970s) and the sci-fi drama influenced by the fall of the Roman Empire has premiered at Cannes. The large cast includes Adam Driver, Giancarlo Esposito, Nathalie Emmanuel, Aubrey Plaza, Shia LaBeouf, Jon Voight, Jason Schwartzman, Talia Shire, Grace VanderWaal, Laurence Fishburne, Kathryn Hunter, Chloe Fineman, and Dustin Hoffman.

Some reaction from the Riviera is heaping praise on the long gestating picture. There’s plenty more calling it a mess (though a wildly ambitious one) and you can see it in the 47% Rotten Tomatoes rating.

At 85, Coppola is rightfully regarded as one of cinema’s most important figures. That said, for every The Godfather, The Conversation, and Apocalypse Now, there’s some flops and flicks that received middling reviews. His 2011 predecessor Twixt, for example, came and went with scant fanfare.

Despite the high profile surroundings with this unveiling, awards prospects are shaky and that might be generous. I suppose tech races like Production Design or Costume Design could happen, but I think it’s entirely possible the Academy ignores this altogether. One might think Visual Effects is doable yet that aspect is receiving its share of disparagement. The large cast should come up empty-handed too. The three Godfather sagas saw 10 performers get nominated. Based on the write-ups I’ve seen, I don’t see any of the thespians here contending. Same goes for Coppola and his movie. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: My Old Ass

Megan Park received critical acclaim for her 2021 directorial debut The Fallout starring Jenna Ortega. Her follow-up is generating the same in Park City at Sundance with My Old Ass. Maisy Stella (best known from TV’s Nashville) stars as a youngster able to communicate with her future self (Aubrey Plaza) about life and love ahead. Maddie Ziegler, Percy Hynes White, and Seth Isaac Johnson costar. Amazon MGM Studios plunked down $15 million for the distribution rights and they plan a theatrical release later this year.

With a 92% RT score, much of the festival buzz (beyond the sale) is centered on Stella. I don’t think the film itself will go far with awards prospects. In fact, the Academy may not sniff it at all. The Golden Globes, on the other hand, could take a look at the lead in Actress (Musical/Comedy). She could be a contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre Box Office Prediction

Guy Ritchie and Jason Statham’s violently comedic cinematic partnership continues on March 3rd with Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre. The spy pic reunites the director and lead nearly two years after their fourth collaboration Wrath of Man. Costars include Aubrey Plaza, Josh Hartnett, Cary Elwes, Bugsy Malone, and Hugh Grant (who has appeared in Ritchie’s The Man from U.N.C.L.E. and The Gentlemen).

Fortune has not been paved with a smooth road to domestic release. It was first slated for stateside distribution in early 2022. However, the film’s depiction of Ukrainian baddies scuttled the premiere due to the nation’s conflict with Russia. Lionsgate picked up the rights and recently announced the early March output. It has already been out in numerous territories with $30 million in the bank. Reviews are so-so with 65% on Rotten Tomatoes.

This hasn’t had much time for a spirited marketing campaign. In May of 2021, Wrath of Man managed just over $8 million when theaters were deep in the midst of the pandemic. However, it debuted on nearly 3000 screens while Fortune is pegged for around 2000.

There’s also Creed III which should siphon away plenty of potential moviegoers. I believe the tale of Fortune‘s gross will be a mid single digits start.

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre opening weekend prediction: $4 million

For my Creed III prediction, click here:

Creed III Box Office Prediction

For my Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village prediction, click here:

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village Box Office Prediction

Emily the Criminal Review

The message in Emily the Criminal seems to be that a felony cannot be overcome no matter the well-intentioned convictions of the felon. In John Patton Ford’s directorial debut, the odds against the title character are as stacked as the giant aluminum food trays she hauls to corporate luncheons in her dreary day and sometimes night job. Another career opportunity starts out as fast money and remains so but becomes increasingly less easy. An alternative path to legitimacy is frustratingly and convincingly shown as more challenging.

Emily (Aubrey Plaza), an L.A. resident by way of New Jersey, is knee deep in student loan debt as she scrapes by in the meal delivery industry. Her options are limited due to an assault charge. Her friend Liz (Megalyn Echikunwoke) tries to get her in on the ground floor at an ad agency though the timing never seems right.

A coworker hips Emily to the “dummy shopping” game where she purchases pricey items with fake credit cards. With the promise of making $200 for a hour’s worth of work buying a flatscreen TV, the initial gambit pays off flawlessly. She’s introduced to one of the ringleaders Youcef (Theo Rossi) and her second assignment hints at the risks lying ahead. However, there is no amount of bulk sandwich spreads that can compete with the bread earned. Soon a romance develops between Emily and Youcef while the latter’s up in the chain brother (Jonathan Avigdori) doesn’t welcome her presence.

Known more for her sardonic sense of humor, Plaza once again shows she has dramatic chops (we witnessed it in Black Bear too). Emily’s circumstances naturally make her a sympathetic figure yet the star and writer/director Ford develop a multidimensional figure. This warts and all approach elevates the narrative. She’s neither a hero or a villain and it appears a share of her problems are self-inflicted. A job interview as she’s screened by Liz’s boss (Gina Gershon) arguably displays this. Her main character trait is she’s a survivor. Plaza excels at exhibiting the determination.

Ford is a filmmaker to watch. He employs a gritty 80s thriller vibe in this saga of perilously living and hopefully not dying in Los Angeles. Crime might just pay in Emily the Criminal and I felt rewarded as we see if this leads to her decline.

***1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Emily the Criminal

Emily the Criminal played Sundance back in January and it’s out in limited fashion on August 12th. The directorial debut of John Patton Ford, the crime drama seems to be a showcase for Aubrey Plaza’s title character. Critics have taken notice in their praise of her work. The film itself stands at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. Costars include Theo Rossi, Megalyn Echikunwoke, and Gina Gershon.

Joining a list that includes Ingrid Goes West, The Little Hours, and Black Bear, none of Plaza’s acclaimed indies have managed to seriously break her into the awards conversation. It’s highly doubtful this one does the trick either, but one suspects a high profile role will come along soon that might do so. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Best Sellers

Michael Caine, the legendary 88-year-old Brit, has had a unique Oscar history. He’s 2 for 2 with victories when nominated for Supporting Actor (1986’s Hannah and Her Sisters, 1999’s The Cider House Rules). Yet Caine is 0 for 4 when up for Best Actor (1966’s Alfie, 1972’s Sleuth, 1983’s Educating Rita, 2002’s The Quiet American).

This weekend, his dramedy Best Sellers is out via streaming services. It casts him as a cantankerous author adapting to the industry in the 21st century. Lina Roessler directs with a supporting cast including Aubrey Plaza, Scott Speedman, and Cary Elwes.

While Caine is receiving solid notices for his performance, the picture itself is garnering mixed takes. The Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at 61%. Due to this, it’s a safe bet that the star won’t be contending for a 7th nod with the Academy. I suppose the Golden Globes (if they happen this year) are a slight possibility in the Musical/Comedy race, but that could also be a crowded field due to a high number of genre selections in the former. My Oscar Predictions posts for the films of 2021 will continue…