The Running Man is tracking to open atop the box office this weekend with Glen Powell in the title role. The futuristic action thriller remakes the 1987 original starring Arnold Schwarzenegger, itself was based on a 1982 Stephen King novel. Edgar Wright directs with a supporting cast including William H. Macy, Lee Pace, Michael Cera, Emilia Jones, Daniel Ezra, Jayme Lawson, Colman Domingo, and Josh Brolin.
Reviews aren’t as encouraging as what greeted last weekend’s Predator: Badlands (another effort with roots in Ah-nuld 80s releases). Rotten Tomatoes is at 66% with 59 on Metacritic. Like Badlands, the only awards race worth mentioning for Running is Visual Effects. Nothing from the early reaction indicates it has any realistic shot at contending there. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (11/12): I am downgrading my The Running Man estimate from $27.6 million to $19.6 million as reviews and word-of-mouth have stalled momentum; I am downgrading my Keeper estimate from $6.5 million to $3.2 million
The Running Man looks steal the box office crown as heist threequel Now You See Me: Now You Don’t and horror pic Keeper debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:
Based on the Stephen King novel, sci-fi action satire The Running Man also serves as a remake of the 1987 pic with Glen Powell taking over starring duties from Arnold Schwarzenegger. I don’t think it reaches the heights of Predator: Badlands from this past weekend (more on that below), but it should place 1st in the low to mid 20s.
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t includes Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson, and Morgan Freeman reprising their roles from 2013 and 2016 predecessors. That’s a lengthy layover from part 2 to 3 and the second one didn’t match the original in terms of cash. I anticipate the drop-off will continue and I have See in third.
Keeper could overperform as horror titles often do, but I’m going mid single digits for a fourth place showing for the latest genre effort from the prolific Osgood Perkins.
It will be interesting to see the sophomore frame percentage decline for Predator: Badlands. 2010’s Predators and 2018’s The Predator each debuted in the mid 20s (far below this one). They plummeted 72% and 63% respectively in their follow-up outings. The film in the franchise that performed similarly to Badlands (2004’s AVP: Alien Vs. Predator) saw a 68% dip. However, I don’t see this falling that far due to its A- Cinemascore (the strongest of the lot). Mid 50s seems more likely.
Regretting You, which showed impressive staying power last weekend, should round out the top five and here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. The Running Man
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
2. Predator: Badlands
Predicted Gross: $18.2 million
3. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million
4. Regretting You
Predicted Gross: $5 million
6. Keeper
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
Box Office Results (November 7-9)
It took a nearly 40-year-old franchise to wake up the box office and showed that the series wasn’t over the hill as Predator: Badlands amassed $40 million. Solid word-of-mouth and positive reviews helped propel it to the highest start of the nine pictures when not adjusting for inflation. This easily eclipsed my $27.6 million prediction.
Regretting You, as mentioned, slid a teensy 15% in weekend #3 to $6.6 million compared to my $4.8 million call. The romantic drama is plugging along with $38 million thus far.
Black Phone 2 dropped from 1st to 3rd as it received $5.1 million, in line with my $4.6 million projection. The sequel has taken in $70 million after four weeks.
The inspirational early 20th century set drama Sarah’s Oil, which includes Zachary Levi among its cast, was my surprise of the weekend. It placed fourth with $4.2 million and I didn’t do a guesstimate. Scoring a rare A+ Cinemascore grade, Oil could hold up well in the coming weeks.
Historical courtroom drama Nuremberg with Oscar winners Russell Crowe and Rami Malek rounded out the top five with $3.8 million, managing to outdo my $3 million take.
Bugonia was sixth in weekend #2 at $3.4 million (ahead of my $2.7 million prediction) for $12 million after two weeks of wide release.
Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc finished seventh with $3.4 million (I said $2.9 million) as the anime hit stands at $37 million after three weeks.
Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson’s drama Die, My Love debuted in eighth with $2.6 million, on pace with my $2.5 million estimate.
Finally, boxing biopic Christy with Sydney Sweeney was KO’d in 11th with just $1.3 million. I was more generous at $2.2 million.
Paramount hopes audiences are game for The Running Man when it debuts November 14th. The sci-fi action flick casts Glen Powell in a role that Arnold Schwarzenegger played in the 1987 original. Based on a Stephen King novel, costars include Josh Brolin, Colman Domingo, Lee Pace, Jayme Lawson, Michael Cera, Emilia Jones, Daniel Ezra, and William H. Macy. Edgar Wright directs. This is the second 2025 adaptation of a dystopian tale written under King’s pseudonym Richard Bachman behind The Long Walk.
Following Predator: Badlands by a week (another Ah-nuld adjacent release), Running hopes to pick up speed based on Powell’s star power and decent early word-of-mouth. The original isn’t exactly considered a classic, but it has a solid cult B-movie reputation. I don’t think this reaches near $40 million like Badlands. Low to mid 20s seems more likely.
The Running Man opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million
For my Now You See Me: Now You Don’t prediction, click here:
Predator: Badlands is the ninth overall installment in the nearly 40-year-old franchise and the third in a row from director Dan Trachtenberg. Opening Friday, it follows up 2022’s Prey and this summer’s Predator: Killer of Killers. Elle Fanning stars alongside Dimitrius Schuster-Koloamatangi and Mike Homik.
Prey and Killers received impressive reviews with respective 94% and 95% Tomato meters and 71/78 scores on Metacritic. Badlands is lagging behind though not by much with 88% on RT and 69 for Meta.
In 1987, Predator starring the future Governors of California and Minnesota had a 50% chance to win Best Visual Effects, but lost to sole competitor Innerspace. VE is the only race where Badlands could materialize. If so, it would continue a recent trend of entries in long existing franchises (No Time to Die, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Alien: Romulus) nabbing slots. I’ve yet to list this in my top 10 possibilities. So while I’m skeptical it makes the quintet, it is not an impossibility and don’t be surprised if it pops up in the bottom rungs of my VE hopefuls when I do my next update. My Oscar prediction posts will continue…
Predator: Badlands looks to awaken a dormant box office when it debuts November 7th. It marks the ninth overall feature in the nearly 40-year-old franchise that began with the Arnold Schwarzenegger classic. Dan Trachtenberg directs his second pic in the series after helming the 2022’s Prey and the animated Predator: Killer of Killers back in June. Both were acclaimed and they premiered via streaming on Hulu. Elle Fanning stars alongside Dimitrius Schuster-Koloamatangi and Mike Homik.
Technically AVP: Alien vs. Predator holds the record for best start among the films at $38 million back in 2004. As far as Predator titles without an iconic sparring partner, 2010’s Predators and 2018’s The Predator experienced virtually identical openings of $24.7 and $24.6 million, respectively.
Early word-of-mouth for Badlands is solid yet some fans may choose to wait for to Disney+/Hulu. It could manage to top expectations because there’s not much else out there. I also wouldn’t be surprised at all if it sees a mid 20s output similar to what we witnessed in 2010 and 2018 and that would be considered a letdown. I’ll give it slightly more.
Predator: Badlands opening weekend prediction: $27.6 million
In what has become a tradition on the blog, it is time to revisit the cinematic season that transpired ten years ago. In 2014, that meant the warmer months were ruled by a ragtag group of relatively unknown Marvel superheroes (at least compared to your Spideys, Batmen, and Supermen, etc…).
Audiences might have been hooked on the feelings these MCU characters gave them, but they were also transfixed by apes, giant lizards, and pizza chomping turtles.
Let’s take a trip down a decade old memory lane with the top 10 domestic earners of summer ’14 as well as other noteworthy pics and significant flops.
10. How to Train Your Dragon 2
Domestic Gross: $177 million
While the DreamWorks Animation sequel couldn’t match or exceed the gross of its 2010 predecessor at $217 million, the fantasy tale won the Golden Globe for its genre and was Oscar nominated for Animated Feature. A sequel would follow five years later.
9. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Domestic Gross: $191 million
With Michael Bay producing and Megan Fox starring, the transformation of this franchise from the 1990s to the 21st century was a financial if not critical success. A sequel which made less cash came two summers later.
8. 22 Jump Street
Domestic Gross: $191 million
Channing Tatum and Jonah Hill’s second go-round as hapless cops (this time graduating to going undercover at college instead of high school) outpaced the 2012 original financially. A third Street never arrived (there was a rumored crossover with the Men in Black series), but Tatum has recently spoken of his desire to get the ball rolling.
7. Godzilla
Domestic Gross: $200 million
It might be the 30th overall feature in the Godzilla franchise, but this monster mash from Gareth Edwards achieved some of the series’ best reviews and kicked off the MonsterVerse that is still wreaking havoc at multiplexes. It also assisted in washing away dirty memories of Roland Emmerich’s 1998 summertime treatment with Matthew Broderick
6. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Domestic Gross: $202 million
While it made over $200 million domestic, Andrew Garfield’s return to the Spidey suit was seen as underwhelming with critics and audiences. Planned sequels didn’t materialize though Garfield and head villain Jamie Foxx would reprise their roles in 2021’s Spider-Man: No Way Home.
5. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Domestic Gross: $208 million
The follow-up to 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Matt Reeves took over directorial duties. The result was critical acclaim as Dawn became the long running franchise’s largest grosser. Two sequels (including Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes in May) have followed.
4. X-Men: Days of Future Past
Domestic Gross: $233 million
This sequel combined cast members from the 2000-06 trilogy including Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine, Ian McKellen’s Magneto, Patrick Stewart’s Professor X, and Halle Berry’s Storm with some of their younger counterparts from 2011’s X-Men: First Class like Michael Fassbender’s Magneto and James McAvoy’s Professor X (as well as Jennifer Lawrence’s Mystique). The result is the highest earning pic with X-Men in the title. With the exception of the Deadpool success that followed two years later, direct sequels Apocalypse and Dark Phoenix failed to replicate the success here.
3. Maleficent
Domestic Gross: $241 million
After the massively profitable live-action remake of their animated Alice in Wonderland four years earlier, Disney continued the trend with Maleficent. Angelina Jolie starred as the Sleeping Beauty villainess and a 2019 sequel earned less than half of the total of this domestically.
2. Transformers: Age of Extinction
Domestic Gross: $245 million
Shia LaBeouf exited Michael Bay’s robotic mayhem and Mark Wahlberg entered this fourth entry. A billion in receipts worldwide resulted in making this 2014’s best worldwide grosser. Sequels are still coming and the latest Transformers: Rise of the Beasts hit a lower $157 million last year.
1. Guardians of the Galaxy
Domestic Gross: $233 million
This was the 10th feature in the MCU and it seemed like the first that could be a financial question mark. The heroes weren’t as familiar to audiences, but James Gunn’s tale of eccentric comic characters took by the box office by storm. Two sequels have followed in addition to Guardians appearances in other MCU sagas.
And now let’s cover some other flicks from ’14 that had crowds and critics chatting.
Neighbors
Domestic Gross: $150 million
The comedic teaming of Seth Rogen and Zac Efron caused this fraternal experience to be the season’s most fruitful original comedy. A less regarded sequel came two years later.
Lucy
Domestic Gross: $126 million
Two summers after The Avengers set records, Scarlett Johansson had a solid sci-fi action grosser with Luc Besson’s concoction.
The Fault in Our Stars
Domestic Gross: $124 million
John Green’s phenomenon of a YA romance bestseller became a blockbuster with decent reviews highlighting the chemistry of leads Shailene Woodley and Ansel Elgort.
Edge of Tomorrow
Domestic Gross: $100 million
Doug Liman’s sci-fi actioner with elements of Groundhog Day was not a sizable hit upon release. However, the Tom Cruise and Emily Blunt led title’s reputation has grown since with occasional rumors of another Tomorrow.
Let’s Be Cops
Domestic Gross: $82 million
This buddy cop pic was an out of nowhere late season surprise with over $100 million globally against a meager $17 million budget. Unlike nearly all other movies I’ve spoken of above, a sequel (somehow) did not happen.
Chef
Domestic Gross: $31 million
After helming two ginormous Iron Man chapters and a disappointment with Cowboys and Aliens, Jon Favreau cooked up critical cred and impressive midsize numbers with this road dramedy.
Boyhood
Domestic Gross: $25 million
Shot over a span of a decade, Richard Linklater’s unique coming-of-age drama remains the best reviewed picture of the 21st century according to Metacritic. Six Oscar nods, including a Supporting Actress victory for Patricia Arquette, were among its many plaudits.
Snowpiercer
Domestic Gross: $4 million
Bong Joon-Ho, who would make the BP winning Parasite five years later, garnered acclaim for this post-apocalyptic pic that would eventually spawn a TV series.
OK, so not all 2014 summer sagas were prosperous and here’s some that were considered commercial and/or critical disappointments.
Hercules
Domestic Gross: $72 million
Brett Ratner’s version of the Greek god wreaking havoc on his enemies cast Dwayne Johnson in the lead. The grosses were actually fairly decent, but I’m sure the studio were hoping for nine figures stateside… and does anyone even mention this movie anymore?
Jersey Boys
Domestic Gross: $47 million
The original play earned Tonys but audiences mostly tuned out Clint Eastwood’s take on the decades spanning musical drama.
Blended
Domestic Gross: $46 million
The Wedding Singer and 50 First Dates were each lucrative rom coms with Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore. The third time was not the charm with moviegoers or reviewers.
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Domestic Gross: $43 million
Family Guy creator Seth MacFarlane ruled the comedic box office in summer 2012 with Ted. This follow-up starring him and Charlize Theron didn’t hit the bullseye.
The Expendables 3
Predicted Gross: $39 million
The previous two action headliners with Stallone, Schwarzenegger, Statham, and Snipes and others did well. For inexplicable reasons, a PG-13 rating was slapped on this third one and audiences turned their nose up for what they wanted to be R-rated violence. A fourth (and also unsuccessful) pic came out last year.
Sex Tape
Predicted Gross: $38 million
Jason Segel and Cameron Diaz couldn’t cause people to cue up this raunchy comedy which played to mostly empty establishments.
Sin City: A Dame to Kill For
Domestic Gross: $13 million
The first Sin City in 2005 made nearly $30 million in its first weekend while this sequel grossed less than half that figure total. The comic book adaptation co-directed by Robert Rodriguez and Frank Miller might stand as the biggest flop of the season.
And that’s your recap, folks! Hope you enjoyed this walk down memory lane and I’ll have a post about summer 2015 up in the summer of 2025!
On Sunday, Michael Keaton took part in a humorous bit with Arnold Schwarzenegger and Danny DeVito during the 96th Academy Awards. It was related to the fact that the Twins stars were both Batman villains. In the history of the Oscars, Keaton’s sole nod is for 2014’s Birdman. He stars in his second directorial feature Knox Goes Away, which hits theaters in limited fashion Friday.
Playing a hitman diagnosed with dementia, the thriller premiered last fall at the Toronto Film Festival. Costars include James Marsden, Al Pacino (who had his own viral moment at the Oscars three days ago), Marcia Gay Harden, and Suzy Nakamura. The jury’s verdict from Canada months ago and in recent days is split to negative with 50% on RT. It’s safe to assume this won’t mark Keaton’s second nomination in front of the camera or behind it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Schwarzenegger. Stallone. Squibb. At the Sundance Film Festival, we have a new seasoned action hero via Josh Margolin’s Thelma. It casts June Squibb, 94 years young, seeking revenge on a phone scammer. Costars include Fred Hechinger, the late Richard Roundtree, Parker Posey, Clark Gregg, and Malcolm McDowell.
Ms. Squibb, nominated in Supporting Actress for 2013’s Nebraska, is unsurprisingly drawing critical kudos for her work. The Sundance notices thus far have resulted in 100% Tomato meter. With the right amount of exposure, Thelma could be a sleeper.
Awards prospects are shakier. I’d say this is more of a Golden Globes post than an Academy Awards one. A shrewd marketing campaign might put Squibb in line for an Actress nod in Musical/Comedy at that show. It’s all about how visible (or not) this project becomes over the next few months and the level of competition that is TBD. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Touching down 35 years after the glistening biceps and grisly kills of Predator, Prey puts the “pre” in prequel by taking us all the way back to 1719. Our setting is the Northern Great Plains in a mountainous region inhabited by a Comanche Indian tribe. The elements of the time are their own enemy and so is the wildlife roaming free. This includes lions and bears of the somewhat unconvincing CG variety. There’s also a gruesome scene where buffaloes earn their wings.
Dan Trachtenberg’s film poses the question – what if we dropped one of those Predators in this unique cinematic universe? The answer is a clever spin on the franchise that marks its own territory. It limits the callbacks to the original so that when they surface, they’re appreciated. The screenplay isn’t muddied by burying itself in nostalgia and that’s something plenty of other series can’t claim as of late.
There are no semiautomatic weapons or choppas for Naru (Amber Midthunder), a young warrior who longs to be a hunter. Her brother Taabe (Dakota Beavers) is considered one of the best. It’s clear that her community simply doesn’t view her as capable of doing the same. She gets the chance when that extraterrestrial entity (still a triumph of creature design) makes a visit. Her trusty hound Sarii joins her. Camouflaging itself to attack at the right moments and still giving its potential victims a fighting chance, this is indeed Predator’s best vehicle since part 1.
Predator 2 certainly had its guilty pleasures back in 1990 while 2010’s Predators was a mixed bag. By 2018, Shane Black’s The Predator fell apart as it went along and marked a low point. Prey‘s concept of taking the iconic monster back 300 years is simple and effective. Midthunder’s determined heroine is a huge plus and she’s easily the most engaging protagonist since Arnold. Predator isn’t the only predator around as French colonists surface to torment the Comanches. This group’s encounters with Naru and the beast are violent highlights.
Besides some occasionally questionable CG, it’s fair to say that Prey works on every level imaginable. I found myself immersed in the striking landscapes that its unwelcome guest crashes. Trachtenberg stages his action sequences with precision and there’s no time wasted in its 100 minutes. This is how you do a prequel. With this crew involved, I’d eagerly sign up for more predatory journeys through history.
My look back at the cinematic summers of 30, 20, and 10 years ago culminates with 2012. A decade ago, the Marvel Cinematic Universe went from a successful franchise to the phenomenal juggernaut that it remains today. That’s due to the release of a little something called The Avengers. On a side note, it’s worth mentioning that the biggest grosser 30 years ago (Batman Returns), two decades ago (Spider-Man), and in this post all share comic book roots.
Before we get to Iron Man and company, I’ll recount the other features in the top ten moneymakers before covering additional notable titles and some flops. If you missed my write-ups about the seasons of 1992 and 2002, you can find them here:
Some three decades after Alien terrified audiences, Ridley Scott returned to the franchise. However, this was more of a mixed bag in terms of critical and audience reaction. The production design and Michael Fassbender’s performance were praised while the script drew its share of critics. Nevertheless Scott would be back in the mix five years later with Alien: Covenant.
9. Snow White and the Huntsman
Domestic Gross: $155 million
Hot off the Twilight franchise and hot off playing Thor in The Avengers, Kristen Stewart and Chris Hemsworth battled Prometheus costar Charlize Theron’s evil stepmom in this fantasy adventure. Reviews were so-so but it performed well enough to warrant a less appreciated prequel The Huntsman: Winter’s War in 2016.
8. Ice Age: Continental Drift
Domestic Gross: $161 million
The fourth entry in the animated franchise featuring the vocal stylings of Ray Romano and John Leguizamo kept the grosses hot. Sequel Collision Course would follow four years later.
The third teaming of Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones (with Josh Brolin playing a convincing younger version of him) earned $11 million less than 2002’s part II. That sequel made less than the 1997 original. The series was revamped in 2019 with Men in Black: International with none other than Chris Hemsworth, but audiences tuned out.
6. Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted
Domestic Gross: $216 million
Ben Stiller and Chris Rock returned for the third time voicing their respective lion and zebra. Spin-off Penguins of Madagascar came out two years later while a proper fourth entry never materialized from DreamWorks.
5. Ted
Domestic Gross: $218 million
Moving from Fox’s hugely successful animated sitcom Family Guy the big screen, Seth MacFarlane’s story of Mark Wahlberg and his crude talking bear Ted was the breakout comedy of the season. Follow-ups A Million Ways to Die in the West and the Ted sequel were not as well received.
The first Pixar film led by a female hero is also the inaugural studio entry (co)directed by a woman. It would go on to win Best Animated Feature at the Oscars.
3. The Amazing Spider-Man
Domestic Gross: $262 million
After not moving forward with a fourth title directed by Sam Raimi and starring Tobey Maguire, the Spidey franchise was rebooted with Marc Webb behind the camera and Andrew Garfield donning the red. The dollars followed although reviews were mixed and a 2014 sequel was widely considered a disappointment.
2. The Dark Knight Rises
Domestic Gross: $448 million
While perhaps not quite reaching the heights of 2008’s The Dark Knight, the culmination to Christopher Nolan’s trilogy sent Christian Bale’s Caped Crusader off in stirring fashion and with hugely profitable earnings.
1. The Avengers
Domestic Gross: $623 million
Setting record after record upon release, the melding of Iron Man, Thor, Captain America, Hulk, Black Widow, and Hawkeye transfixed filmgoers. It’s been Marvel’s world and we’ve been living in it ever since.
And now for some other pics worthy of discussion:
Magic Mike
Domestic Gross: $113 million
Steven Soderbergh’s saga of male exotic dancers was based loosely on Channing Tatum’s real life experiences. It turned him into a superstar while giving Matthew McConaughey a memorable showcase. The micro budgeted pic (a reported $7 million) spawned a 2015 sequel and there’s a third scheduled to hit HBO Max next year.
The Bourne Legacy
Domestic Gross: $113 million
Audiences weren’t clamoring for Jeremy Renner to replace Matt Damon in this franchise, but the stateside and overseas grosses were still pretty acceptable. That said, Renner’s tenure lasted this pic and this pic only.
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Domestic Gross: $46 million
While it performed even better overseas, this British import with Judi Dench was a sleeper hit stateside that begat a 2015 sequel.
Moonrise Kingdom
Domestic Gross: $45 million
Wes Anderson scored with critics and crowds with this coming-of-age dramedy that premiered at Cannes and then found an audience in the weeks that followed.
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Domestic Gross: $12 million
This indie drama from Benh Zeitlin was truly a little movie that could. Shot for under $2 million, it eventually nabbed Oscar nods for Picture, Director, Actress (Quvanzhane Wallis at age 9), and Adapted Screenplay.
They’re not all winners so let’s get into some critical and/or commercial failures from the period:
Dark Shadows
Domestic Gross: $79 million
Johnny Depp’s box office happy days were beginning to fade as his 8th collaboration with Tim Burton was perhaps the least memorable. This horror comedy failed to enlighten viewers.
Battleship
Domestic Gross: $65 million
Action fans weren’t taken with this Peter Berg directed board game adaptation starring Liam Neeson and Rihanna with a bloated budget of over $200 million.
Total Recall
Domestic Gross: $58 million
And your action sci-fi fans weren’t signing up for Colin Farrell taking over for Arnold Schwarzenegger in this unneeded remake.
Rock of Ages
Domestic Gross: $38 million
Based on the Broadway musical, there was a deaf ear turned to this adaptation despite Tom Cruise getting solid notices for his performance. Lucky for him, he’d rule this current summer with Top Gun: Maverick.
That’s My Boy
Domestic Gross: $36 million
Adam Sandler and Andy Samberg’s comedic partnership drew a 20% Tomatoes meter and ambivalence from usually devoted Sandler fans.
The Watch
Domestic Gross: $35 million
That wasn’t the only high-profile comedic flop as this sci-fi mashup with Ben Stiller, Vince Vaughn, and Jonah Hill fared even worse in numbers and rotten reviews (17% RT).
And that’ll close it out, ladies and gents! It’s been a pleasure revising these cinematic seasons of days past.
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