This Friday, British action-comedy Free Fire hits theaters stateside after it’s already premiered in the U.K. Ben Wheatley’s effort debuted last fall at the Toronto Film Festival to decent buzz and it stands at 81% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Oscar winner Brie Larson (fresh off Kong: Skull Island) headlines along with Sharlto Copley, Armie Hammer, Cillian Murphy, and Jack Reynor.
While the pic may garner some interest from fanboys based on its mostly positive word of mouth, the marketing campaign for Free Fire has been minimal. I don’t yet have a theater count for it, which makes this prediction a little tough (and I could revise it when that count is revealed).
Regardless, I see a low opening here and it’s best hope is likely gaining a cult following once it’s release for home viewing.
Free Fire opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million
The Sundance Film Festival of 2017 has come and gone, but this blogger is still sorting out the potential Oscar buzz coming from it. Even though it’s the earliest fest, Sundance has a habit of showcasing film or two and performers that get Academy nods a year later.
Perhaps no other picture generated more buzz this time around than Luca Guadagnino’s CallMebyYourName, a gay love story set in Italy during the 1980s. Based on an acclaimed 2007 novel by Andre Aciman, Name stars Timothee Chalamet (a relative unknown who’s appeared on Showtime’s “Homeland”), Armie Hammer, and Michael Stuhlbarg, a fine character actor who’s popped up in everything from SteveJobs to Arrival to DoctorStrange to MissSloane as of late.
Buzz on this romance is terrific thus far and it sports a 100% current Rotten Tomatoes rating. It’s leaving Sundance with the strongest potential for Oscar voter notice along with Mudbound (which I already posted about). Picture, Director, Actor (Chalamet) and Supporting Actor (Hammer or Stuhlbarg) appear to be in play, as well as Adapted Screenplay.
Of course, it’s very early but Name appears to be a real contender.
Tom Ford’s NocturnalAnimals is centered on a woman living in a fancy world surrounded by her own boredom and regret at certain life choices. The film is an often fascinating mash-up of Hitchcock, a little De Palma inspired Hitchcock, and most surprisingly, a West Texas crime tale that looks and feels like this year’s earlier HellorHighWater. We also have a more conventional tale of a romance gone astray and the emotions involved with that. It’s a concoction that sometimes is a little messy, a tad campy at moments, veers in tone shifts, and is also directed a fashion designer who seems to know exactly what he wishes to fashion.
L.A. art gallery owner Susan Morrow (Amy Adams) is living a wealthy life in an unhappy marriage and a career she’s grown to believe is purposeless. One day, she receives a manuscript. It’s from her ex-husband Edward (Jake Gyllenhaal) that she was only married to for a couple years around college. The novel grabs her. It’s the aforementioned HighWater looking story of a remarried Edward on a West Texas road trip with his wife and daughter when they are terrorized by bad guys led by a disheveled and effectively menacing Aaron Taylor-Johnson. Their encounter takes a dark and tragic turn and soon Edward is teaming up with a ranger (Michael Shannon, in a terrific performance) to deal with its aftermath.
The story cuts back and forth between the actions of Susan’s ex-flame’s West Texas narrative (is it real or not?) and her unhappy life on the West Coast. We also witness the courtship of them in college. This juxtaposition creates an often dream like quality (a little David Lynch thrown in for good measure) and it’s rather intoxicating. We basically get to know everything we need to know about Susan’s character in a great short scene with Laura Linney as her debutante mom. Other key characters and their motivations don’t become clear until later.
NocturnalAnimals looks gorgeous as you might expect from a designer that Jay-Z made a song about. The cinematography is stunning and the musical score is often reminiscent of something we’d hear in an old Hitch pic or perhaps De Palma homage. There are moments that recall Nicolas Winding Refn’s TheNeonDemon in plot had that movie actually succeeded. Tom Ford wears his influences proudly and unabashedly in his sophomore effort. It’s anything but boring.
When Nate Parker’s The Birth of a Nation debuted at the Sundance Film Festival all the way back in January, it garnered red-hot buzz that included awards chatter. Fox Searchlight quickly snatched up the rights and it rolls out in theaters next weekend. The pic tells the true life tale of slave rebellion leader Nat Turner in 1831. Parker directed, produced, wrote, and stars in the $10 million production. Costars include Armie Hammer, Aja Naomi King, Jackie Earle Haley, Gabrielle Union, and Penelope Ann Miller.
Since its wildly successful roll out this past winter, Birth has faced an interesting and sometimes troubling journey to the wide release date. While its 82% on Rotten Tomatoes indicates the aforementioned positive critical reaction, the film has seemed to diminish in the view of Oscar forecasters. Whether that’s due to buzz waning or other worthy pictures being screened since then is an open question.
And, yes, there’s the matter of Nate Parker’s personal life stemming from a 1999 rape case and his accuser’s suicide years later. The matter has received significant publicity over the last few months. How the story affects Nation‘s box office performance obviously seems inconsequential considering the larger picture, but it must be taken into consideration for any prediction.
All of those factors have contributed to Birth losing some luster and, truth be told, my opening weekend prediction post Sundance probably would’ve been higher. I’ll predict this manages to get past double digits, but not by much.
The Birth of a Nation opening weekend prediction: $10.5 million
For my The Girl on the Train prediction, click here:
Another piece of the potential Oscar puzzle has come into focus with Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals, which screened at the Venice Film Festival. The thriller has garnered a number of very positive critical notices and looks to be a player come awards season.
The feature is the second directorial feature from famed clothing designer Ford, who drew positive reactions from his first effort – 2009’s A Single Man (which earned Colin Firth a Best Actor nomination). Animals boasts an impressive cast – Amy Adams, Jake Gyllenhaal, Michael Shannon, Laura Linney, Armie Hammer, Isla Fisher, and Aaron Taylor-Johnson.
Based on early word, this looks to be a factor in Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay (tech categories such as Cinematography and Editing as well). As for the performers, it will be an interesting story to watch with Adams, as she’s likely to compete against herself with Arrival (which also screened at Venice). Gyllenhaal could be in the mix for Actor while Shannon has had a solid 2016 and could compete for Supporting Actor.
Another day. Another strong possibility for Oscar attention. Nocturnal Animals hits screens on November 18th.
Continuing on with my first round of Oscar predictions, day two brings us to Best Supporting Actor. In both 2014 and 2015, my late August/early September initial picks yielded two out the eventual five nominees. Last year, these first picks correctly identified winner Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies.
There are plenty of contenders to list at this early stage. One of the big question marks in plenty of categories is Martin Scorsese’s Silence, a passion project and historical drama that has yet to release a trailer or announce when it’s coming out. It is assumed that it’ll be out in time for Oscar consideration. If so, Liam Neeson is likely to be a contender in this race (and maybe costar Adam Driver).
As mentioned yesterday with Kristen Stewart in Supporting Actress, Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk appears to be a potential major awards player and the beloved Steve Martin could reap the benefits with his first ever acting nod. Vin Diesel, Chris Tucker, and Garrett Hedlund are also possibilities.
Michael Shannon could be under consideration for two high-profile fall entries – Jeff Nichols’ Loving or Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals.
Barry Jenkins’ indie African-American romantic drama Moonlight is getting attention (I predicted Naomie Harris yesterday for Supporting Actress recognition) and Mahershala Ali (known to many as Remy Danton on Netflix’s “House of Cards”) could find himself in the mix.
Damien Chazelle’s La La Land is also expected to garner Oscar talk (it’ll screen for critics on the festival circuit in days) and it could feature a breakout role for singer John Legend.
And there’s many more possibilities, including Warren Beatty’s return to the silver screen in Rules Don’t Apply. There’s John Goodman’s already acclaimed work in 10 Cloverfield Lane (though the genre could make him a long shot). Or maybe a first nomination for Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins. And there’s two movies that Aaron Eckhart could find himself being considered for.
As always, the list will be updated in the weeks and months ahead, but for now…
TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Just one day after the Sundance Film Festival gave us our first 2016 Oscar contender with Manchester by the Sea, the second landed today in a very big way. It arrived in the form of Nate Parker’s The Birth of a Nation, which Mr. Parker also cowrote and stars in. Nation tells the story of the 1831 slave rebellion led by Nat Turner. Costars include Armie Hammer, Jackie Earle Haley, and Gabrielle Union. The $10 million production reportedly took Parker (a semi well known actor known who’s appeared in Red Tails and Non-Stop) seven years to get off the ground.
At today’s Sundance screening, Nation was greeted with rapturous word of mouth and a prolonged standing ovation. There is expected to be a feeding frenzy among studios to purchase the film’s rights. Expect fervent buzz for this get attention for Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, and Actor with Parker seemingly on his way to becoming a household name.
Bottom line: two days at Sundance have already in January produced two real possibilities come next year at Oscar time.
A summer action pic based on a popular 1960s spy TV show? No, not Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, but The Man from U.N.C.L.E. which opens next Friday. Don’t expect this to reach close to Rogue numbers. Sherlock Holmes director Guy Ritchie is behind the camera with Man of Steel Henry Cavill and Lone Ranger Armie Hammer in the leads. Ex Machina’s Alicia Vikander and Hugh Grant are among the supporting players.
While the marketing campaign has been fairly robust, it’s hard to see U.N.C.L.E. breaking through in any significant way. Straight Outta Compton, debuting the same day, appears poised for a splashy start while Fantastic Four will be entering weekend #2 with Rogue Nation likely doing pretty strong biz in its third frame. None of the stars here are capable of opening a picture and familiarity with the TV show from 50 years is limited.
Add that up and I’ll predict this $75 million budgeted effort doesn’t reach $20 million out of the gate.
The Man from U.N.C.L.E. opening weekend prediction: $18.6 million
For my Straight Outta Compton prediction, click here:
As 2013 comes to a close, there is little doubt that Gore Verbinski’s The Lone Ranger will be considered the biggest flop of the year. Stories abounded about production delays and problems. Journalists had a field day writing about its bloated budget (said to be at least $250 million) and the end of the box office dominance of star Johnny Depp. The pic’s failure to meet financial expectations is undeniable as it managed only $89 million domestically. For the majority of people who even casually follow the film biz, you’ve probably read nothing positive about The Lone Ranger.
Now that I’ve seen it, I will happily report that there are some positive things to say about this movie. Of course, it’s not all positive. Far from it. Based on an iconic 1930s radio show that later turned into TV series and films, the 2013 version is given the Gore Verbinski/producer Jerry Bruckheimer treatment. In other words, it’s given the Pirates of the Caribbean treatment.
And that means Johnny Depp as Tonto, the sidekick of John Reid aka The Lone Ranger (Armie Hammer). The Western is mostly set in 1869 (it’s told in flashback by Tonto when he’s a very old man) and Reid is a dignified attorney turned masked vigilante after his brother and his team of Texas Rangers are gunned down. The culprits are led by outlaw Butch Cavendish (William Fichtner). Comanche Indian Tonto has his own reasons to help his Ranger partner as seeks to bring justice to those responsible for killing his tribe when he was a child.
Along the way, we get a fairly generous helping of high-octane action sequences and a lot of humorous banter between the two leads. So does it work? Sometimes it does. Sometimes it doesn’t. And a lot of The Lone Ranger‘s effectiveness lies with its performers. Critics and journalists seemed to have their knives sharpened for Depp by the time this premiered. In some respects, I can understand why. It was ten years ago that Mr. Depp became a box office sensation with Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl. What set that pic apart for Depp (after a film career that was already terrific though lacking in hits) was the thrill of seeing a truly great actor bring his glorious quirkiness into a blockbuster setting. Now it’s unfortunately begin to feel a bit old hat. It hasn’t helped that the pictures he’s chosen simply aren’t on the original Pirates popcorn level. This holds true for Depp as Quirky Mad Hatter in Alice in Wonderland, Quirky Vampire in Dark Shadows, Quirky Captain Sparrow in the subpar Pirates sequels, and yes, as Quirky Tonto. Almost as if to accentuate my point, there’s even one moment in this film when Depp literally kicks a dead horse.
That said, Depp’s Tonto has his share of chemistry with Hammer’s Lone Ranger. Mr. Hammer became known to filmgoers in not one, but two roles in David Fincher’s The Social Network. There are moments here when his comedic timing is off, but he mostly pulls off a rather unchallenging role.
As the villain, Fichtner doesn’t have much to do except look dirty. Indeed his creepiest role shall remain the police officer/Amway-type distributor in Doug Liman’s Go. Alas Fichtner turns out to not be the film’s only baddie. That reveal is meant to come as a surprise, but you’ll likely see it coming from a mile away. When an Oscar-nominated actor is cast in a part that seems pointless for two-thirds of the running time, he’s probably gonna turn out bad. If you’re interested in finding out who that talented actor is, I’ll let you look it up. Other familiar faces in The Lone Ranger include Helena Bonham-Carter in a glorified cameo as a brothel owner, James Badge Dale as the slain brother ranger, and Ruth Wilson as his widow who may have married the wrong brother.
Director Verbinski helmed the first three Pirates features and a complaint with them is a complaint here: the movie seems bloated and its 150 minute runtime often seems unnecessary. Depp has his moments. Even though we’ve seen this bag of tricks from him before, there’s no doubt Depp has impeccable timing when it comes to comedy and there are ample opportunities for him to display it.
Ultimately, The Lone Ranger mostly plods amiably for about two hours with some decent action and passable chemistry between its leads. However, it also features major shifts in tone that range from slapstick to more serious business when it comes to the relationships between settlers and Native Americans. Due to that, Ranger frequently feels like a different movie from scene to scene. For all those reasons, the picture often feels like a misfire, albeit an often entertaining one.
And then we get the climactic train sequence. Or, better yet, trains (plural) sequence as our main characters jump from rapidly moving locomotive to another to try and save the day. We as an audience are programmed to expect an impressive all-out action/adventure fest in the final moments of something like this. And I’ll be damned if this one isn’t really impressive. And I’m talking impressive in a way that makes the first two hours seem worth sitting through – flaws and all.
That said, I can’t ignore that most of The Lone Ranger doesn’t work very well. It’s not anywhere near as bad as its reputation though.
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