Based on one of the 21st century’s most acclaimed theater productions from Stephen Schwartz, Wicked looks to bewitch audiences this Friday. Crazy Rich Asians director Jon M. Chu helms the reported $145 million production with Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande headlining. Costars include Jonathan Bailey, Ethan Slater, Bowen Yang, Marissa Bode, Peter Dinklage, Michelle Yeoh, and Jeff Goldblum.
Representing part 1 of the epic musical with its follow-up arriving next November, Wicked is expected to be a massive hit worldwide. With its box office fortunes appearing secure, lingering Oscar buzz was confirmed with today’s review embargo lift.
The Rotten Tomatoes score is 93% with Metacritic at 73. Technical noms were always a strong possibility. Costume Design (where it could win), Makeup and Hairstyling (same), Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects are all on the table. There are no original songs so that’s off the table.
A Best Picture nod certainly seems achievable and I had it listed 8th in last weekend’s update. That still seems about right. I don’t believe it’s guaranteed a slot, but its impending popularity gives the Academy a chance to honor a crowd favorite that many viewers have actually seen. Chu’s direction and the screenplay seem far less likely to make the cut.
On the performance front, Erivo will vie for Actress with Grande contending in supporting. Best Actress is super crowded and I’m skeptical Erivo gets her second nomination behind 2019’s Harriet. Grande, meanwhile, stands a better shot even though Supporting Actress has plenty of contenders as well. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
**Blogger’s Update (11/20): I have posted a $4 million forecast for Bonhoeffer today which puts it in fourth place. That change is reflected below and we now have a top 7 projections.
Hollywood hopes for a massive box office weekend ahead as Wicked and Gladiator II look to inject $200 million or more in domestic receipts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
In July 2023, the phenomenon known as Barbenheimer occurred when Barbie soared with a $162 million starting haul while Oppenheimer took in $82 million. I don’t think the grosses will be as gargantuan with Wicked and Gladiator II, but multiplexes should be in for a much needed boost.
Wicked adapts the well-known stage musical with Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande as early versions of the Wicked Witch of the West and Glinda the Good Witch from The Wizard of Oz, respectively. This is part 1 of Jon M. Chu’s fantasy musical with part II arriving in a year. I’m projecting nearly $135 million out of the gate as a wide audience seems destined to greet it.
Gladiator II is the long-in-development follow-up to Ridley Scott’s Best Picture winner with Paul Mescal headlining and Denzel Washington in an Oscar baity supporting turn. My high 60s forecast puts it in the runner-up position. I would note that either of these titles could over perform and keep on this post to see if there are any upgrades by Thursday.
With families flocking to Wicked and action fans packed for Gladiator, current champ Red One will slide to third. The holiday themed action comedy may experience a decline north of 50% considering the fresh competition.
The rest of the high five will consist of holdovers Venom: The Last Dance and The Best Christmas Pageant Ever and Heretic in a close race for fifth. Here’s how I envision the top 6 shaking out:
1. Wicked
Predicted Gross: $134.6 million
2. Gladiator II
Predicted Gross: $69.8 million
3. Red One
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million
4. Bonhoeffer
Predicted Gross: $4 million
5. Venom: The Last Dance
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million
6. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever
Predicted Gross: $2.7 million
7. Heretic
Predicted Gross: $2.5 million
Box Office Results (November 15-17)
On one hand, Red Notice with Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans was originally set for Amazon only distribution so any number is better than nothing. On the other, its debut is fairly ho-hum considering the reported $250 million price tag. It made $32.1 million which did manage to exceed my $27.6 million take. As mentioned, I do expect a hefty dip though it could rebound over the Turkey Day frame.
Venom: The Last Dance was second after three weeks in 1st with $7.3 million, falling behind my $10.2 million prediction. The comic book based threequel sits at $127 million after four outings.
The Best Christmas Pageant Ever was third with $5.2 million. In a trend from this past weekend, it didn’t match my number as I pegged it at $7.6 million. The two-week tally is $19 million.
Heretic was fourth with $5.1 million (I said $6.3 million) as Hugh Grant horror thriller’s total is $20 million after its second go-round.
The Wild Robot rounded out the top five with $4.2 million compared to my $5.5 million call. The animated tale has earned $137 million in eight weeks.
My first Oscar predictions in two weeks and it’s about what narratives I’m buying and which ones I’m selling. For example, I’m currently not sold that Paramount’s September 5 is the contender that some other prognosticators think it is.
On the flip side, I am starting to buy that Conclave is on the rise. The Focus Features effort from Edward Berger is performing well at the box office for an adult skewering drama. I think it has to a shot to win the big prize and that’s why you’ll see it elevated in multiple categories.
While my BP and directorial and Best Actress lineups are unchanged as far as hopefuls, Daniel Craig (Queer) returns to my Actor quintet at the expense of Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice). In Supporting Actor, it is the same five but Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is perched atop the list for the first time. In Supporting Actress, I’m banking on Isabella Rossellini potentially riding that Conclave goodwill and that leaves Ariana Grande (Wicked) on the outside looking in.
You can read all the movement below and the next update should arrive on Thanksgiving weekend!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Conclave (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Real Pain (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Substance (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+1)
15. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 8) (+2)
7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Steve McQueen, Blitz
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)
7. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
John Magaro, September 5
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Substance (PR: 9) (+3)
7. September 5 (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Blitz (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Hit Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kneecap (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Universal Language (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)
9. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Grand Tour (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Armand
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Spellbound (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Most Precious of Cargoes
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daughters (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Union (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Separated (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gaucho Gaucho
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Anora (PR: 6) (-4)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Blitz (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (E)
8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Substance (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Substance (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+3)
4. A Different Man (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicked (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Challengers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Beyond” from Moana 2 (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Blitz (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 4) (E)
4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Twisters (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Civil War
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Twisters (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Better Man (PR: 6) (E)
7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Here
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
9 Nominations
The Brutalist, Conclave
6 Nominations
Wicked
5 Nominations
Anora, Blitz, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Sing Sing
3 Nominations
A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, Saturday Night, The Substance, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Universal is banking on Wicked casting a spell on a wide audience when it debuts November 22nd. Based on the Stephen Schwartz musical, the fantasy set in the land of Oz comes from Crazy Rich Asians director Jon M. Chu. Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande headline with a supporting cast including Jonathan Bailey, Ethan Slater, Bowen Yang, Marissa Bode, Peter Dinklage, Michelle Yeoh, and Jeff Goldblum. The adaptation serves as part one with the sequel scheduled for November of 2025.
Expectations are high, especially after industry screenings that were met with Oscar buzz in Best Picture, Supporting Actress fo Grande, and numerous tech races. Moviegoers of all ages have familiarity with the Broadway show and, of course, The Wizard of Oz. There’s even some Barbenheimer chatter since it is opening on the same date as Gladiator II, which is also anticipated to perform well.
The forecasted range of its start is wide with some estimates less than $100 million, but going all the way up to $150 million. I’m skeptical it gets that high as some viewers may choose to wait until the extended Thanksgiving frame to check it out. Yet I do think it will easily clear nine digits out of the gate.
My votes are in for my latest Oscar predictions at the 97th Academy Awards and I’ve elected to elevate Wicked into my BP top ten with Gladiator II sliding out. This is based on buzz for early screenings and I will readily admit that sometimes those viewings can elicit exaggerated reactions. We’ll see if Wicked sticks around in a way that Gladiator II didn’t (the two pics both open November 22nd).
In other movement, Edward Berger (Conclave) is back in my directorial quintet with RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) on the outside looking in. The five spot in Best Actor switches to Sebastian Stan playing a certain 45th POTUS with Daniel Craig (Queer) slipping. Ariana Grande’s witchy Wicked work enters the Supporting Actress derby with Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) falling to sixth place. In Supporting Actor, on the other hand, Conclave’s Stanley Tucci re-enters with Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) now out. You can peruse all the activity below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Blitz (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
11. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-3)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-1)
13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Substance (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Room Next Door
September 5
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)
8. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (E)
3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-2)
10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Blitz (PR: 6) (-1)
8. September 5 (PR: 4) (-4)
9. The Substance (PR: 9) (E)
10. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
His Three Daughters
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (E)
5. Universal Language (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Kneecap (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Grand Tour (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Armand (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5 (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)
9. Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Orion and the Dark
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Union (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daughters (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dahomey (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anora (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Maria (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Maria (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (E)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (E)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Challengers (PR: 10 (E)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Gladiator II
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Substance (PR: 4) (+2)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)
7. Maria (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Challengers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emila Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+4)
4. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Beyond” from Moana 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)
5. Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (E)
10. Civil War (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Brutalist
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Twisters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Better Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Wicked (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (E)
10. Here (PR: 5) (-5)
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: PartTwo
10 Nominations
The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez
8 Nominations
Conclave
6 Nominations
Wicked
5 Nominations
Anora, Blitz, Gladiator II, Sing Sing
3 Nominations
A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
Maria, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Twisters
1 Nomination
The Apprentice, Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Deadpool & Wolverine, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, Nosferatu, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, The Substance, Union, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
The forecast in Adam McKay’s Don’t Look Up is a planet killing comet mixed with a heavy dose of condescension. This is an all-star experience about our home star being decimated. The writer/director is a Saturday Night Live veteran scribe who mastered the art of penning sketches with exaggerated characters. Even with all the talent involved (there’s lots of Oscar nods and wins among the cast), hardly any rise above caricature status. The nerdy but hot scientist, the clueless government officials, the spoiled pop princess, the pompous and feeble brained news anchors, the empathy devoid and weird billionaire…
These one-note types may fit a mold in a cleverly developed bit that runs five minutes. Not so much in this two and a half hour countdown. They’re mostly tiresome in McKay’s latest politically charged tale. In The Big Short, the filmmaker mixed a cast of familiar faces, complicated financial talk, and humor to rewarding payoffs. McKay’s comedies with Will Ferrell (particularly Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy) are already classics. The issue presented here isn’t complex… a scientific discovery (doubling as a metaphor for climate change) is on its way. McKay’s treatment of the subject matter isn’t subtle. And the screenplay often fails to be funny when showcasing its righteous indignation. Anger and laughter can be a potent combo if handled properly. It’s a test that isn’t met here.
Michigan St. Kate Dibiasky (Jennifer Lawrence) discovers said object hurtling toward Earth with a delivery date about six months out. Her professor, Dr. Randall Mindy (Leonardo DiCaprio) teams with her along with the head of the Planetary Defense Coordination Office (Rob Morgan) to warn a White House filled with scandal and nepotism. The President is Janie Orlean (Meryl Streep), whose Supreme Court nominee may be a porn star and her lover. Her Chief of Staff is her intellectually challenged but supremely confident son (Jonah Hill).
The 100% certainty of a deep impact causing armageddon is not music to the ears of the flailing administration. In fact, Kate and Dr. Mindy are booked in the back segment of a “news” hour hosted by a duo played by Cate Blanchett and Tyler Perry. The segment preceding them is about the romantic entanglements of a famous singer (Ariana Grande). Some of the country takes the threat seriously while another segment pretends it doesn’t exist (and yes it’s easy to draw comparisons to the pandemic era).
President Orlean and her bumbling bubble get more involved when eccentric tech mogul Peter Isherwell (Mark Rylance) figures out a way to monetize the materials from the potential Earth shatterer. And while Dr. Mindy becomes distracted with his new fame and social media status, Kate’s stern warnings make her an enemy of the state.
I won’t get to Kate’s two boyfriends or Dr. Mindy’s wife and kids or whether the snacks in the White House are free or not (actually a gag that’s pretty solid). There’s a whole lot of players in Don’t Look Up and I’m challenged to name a performance that sticks with me for the right reasons. DiCaprio and Lawrence are adequate, but we know they can be so much better. Others are outright annoying and that includes Hill, Rylance, and even Streep. That’s because McKay never writes them above the level of cartoonish morons.
Will your political viewpoints determine whether you dig this? I don’t think so. The frequent struggles to develop the principals and the jarring tone shifts (a late pivot to sentimentality falls flat) should offend both sides and those in between. I’ve watched McKay skewer his targets with far more precision that achieved more lasting results. He’s clear that we’re all doomed in Don’t Look Up. With the characters inhabiting his screenplay, you might find yourself pulling for the comet.
Up until the last couple of weeks, I’ve had Adam McKay’s political satire Don’t Look Up on the outskirts of my predicted 10 Best Picture nominees. After all, just how many Netflix contenders will get in? I figured The Power of the Dog would be their main play and there’s other possibilities with Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Lost Daughter, and Passing.
I recently vaulted it into the fold of ten and (better late than never), that appears to be the right call. Before its eagerly awaited December 10th limited bow in theaters and Christmas Eve Netflix premiere, Up has screened for critics. The social media reaction is leaning toward the positive with particular shoutouts for certain elements and performers.
The star-studded cast is filled with previous Oscar winners and nominees: Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, Jonah Hill, Mark Rylance, Timothee Chalamet, Cate Blanchett, and Meryl Streep. There’s also Rob Morgan, Tyler Perry, Ron Perlman, Ariana Grande, Kid Cudi, Chris Evans, Matthew Perry, and Himesh Patel.
McKay’s last two pics (2015’s The Big Short and 2018’s Vice) were both up in the biggest race of all. His original screenplay detailing the end of the world should be recognized. I’m not as confident he’ll make it for directing though I will note that he made the cut for the previous two and it’s certainly feasible. While Dog may continue to be the Netflix flick I rank higher when I update my forecast Sunday, I don’t see Up moving down the charts and out of the 10.
As for the massive list of performers, the early word is that Leo could vie for his seventh nod (his sole win came for 2015’s The Revenant). He still needs to get past other sturdy thespians. I do like his chances better tonight than I did earlier today. With Lawrence, Best Actress is overflowing with hopefuls and I doubt she lands #5. Ms. Streep is going for her 22nd trip to the dance. Her work as the President here is being mentioned in the laudatory tweets. Supporting Actress has got its share of contenders too, but betting against Meryl is always risky. Supporting Actor is wide open at the moment yet I’m skeptical about Hill or Rylance (or the many others). If Netflix goes all in on one of them, that dynamic could shift.
Surprisingly enough, its most assured nomination could come with Ariana Grande. Not for Supporting Actress (her part is said to be brief), but for her Original Song “Just Look Up”. Editing seems a safe bet as does Score and other down the line races like Sound and Visual Effects are possible.
Bottom line: it’s looking up for Don’t Look Up to get up to a handful of nominations. My Oscar Predictions posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
Last fall, the musical drama TeenSpirit premiered at the Toronto Film Festival to some acclaim that especially focused on its lead Elle Fanning. The film casts her as a shy teen who dreams of pop stardom. The soundtrack finds her covering tunes by the likes of Katy Perry, Ariana Grande, and Annie Lennox. It marks the directorial debut of Max Minghella, whose late father Anthony earned a gold trophy 23 years ago for making TheEnglishPatient. Zlatko Buric and Rebecca Hall are in the supporting cast.
With a Rotten Tomatoes score of 70%, Spirit is in no contention for a Best Picture nod. Yet some critics have made a point to single out Fanning, who’s had well received supporting roles lately in TheBeguiled and 20thCenturyWomen.
A little box office attention could’ve helped but Spirit completely stalled in its limited release over the weekend. Some reviewers may call Fanning a dark horse candidate months from now, but I expect this to end up like last year’s VoxLux with Natalie Portman. While different in tone, that picture also centered on a pop singer and had its supporters. They did not include Academy voters. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
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