Tag: Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

January 19-21 Box Office Predictions

The space station set sci-fi thriller I.S.S. is the only wide release debut in what should be a sluggish weekend at the box office. Our newcomer may struggle to make the top five and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

I.S.S. Box Office Prediction

After a fetching start (more on that below), Mean Girls should remain #1 for the second weekend. However, with a weak B Cinemascore grade, a drop in the mid to high 50s is possible. It still might be the only title to get beyond $10 million as the typical January slowdown commences.

Jason Statham’s action thriller The Beekeeper, after its stronger than anticipated premiere, should be keeping its spot at #2 with a mid to high 40s decline.

The rest of the top five should consist of holiday leftovers with Wonka, Anyone but You, and Migration all experiencing meager dips.

Back to I.S.S. I’m just not seeing a launch of any magnitude and my $2.6 million forecast does indeed mean a showing outside the high five.

Here’s how I do see it:

1. Mean Girls

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million

2. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

3. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $6 million

4. Anyone but You

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

5. Migration

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (January 12-15)

It was a robust premiere for the latest take on Mean Girls as the musical comedy scored $33.6 million over the four-day MLK weekend. That’s over my $27.6 million prediction and at the peak end of its anticipated range.

The Beekeeper also exceeded expectations with $18.7 million, well over my $10.6 million projection. It proved to be a viable option for action fans despite bad weather and playoff football. P.S. – now that my Browns are out, go Texans (Buckeye CJ Stroud) or Lions (long suffering fanbase).

Wonka was third with $11 million, not matching my $12.9 million call. The hit of the holidays has amassed $178 million after five weeks with $200 million domestic in its sights.

Migration was fourth with $8.5 million (I said $8.3 million) as it approaches the century mark with $88 million in four weekends.

Anyone but You rounded out the top five and also grossed $8.5 million for its impressive four-week haul of $56 million. A went with a little more at $9.5 million.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom was sixth with $6.3 million, under my $7.6 million guesstimate, for $109 million overall since its Christmas weekend bow.

Badly reviewed horror flick Night Swim plummeted from 2nd to 7th with $5.4 million (I said $6.1 million) for two-week earnings of $20 million.

Finally, Biblical dramedy The Book of Clarence couldn’t find an audience. It was ninth with a mere $3 million compared to my projection of $5.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 12-15 Box Office Predictions

The four-day MLK weekend finds three new ride release entries with Mean Girls (based on the Broadway play that’s based on the 2004 comedy), action thriller The Beekeeper with Jason Statham, and Biblical dramedy The Book of Clarence. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Mean Girls Box Office Prediction
The Beekeeper Box Office Prediction
The Book of Clarence Box Office Prediction

Mean Girls should easily manage to be first #1 title released from 2024. That’s something Night Swim couldn’t do this weekend (more on that below). With an anticipated sizable female audience, Girls may take in low to high 20s over the Friday to Monday portion of the extended frame.

The Beekeeper could certainly exceed my expectations, but I have it barely clearing $10 million. That should put it in third behind the fifth weekend of Wonka.

If you look at previous MLK four-days, holiday leftovers can often have slight decreases or even small increases. That could be the case with rom com Anyone but You which has proven to be impressively durable since its Christmas bow. That said, Girls does serve as direct competition. I have it rising from fifth to fourth with Migration rounding out the top five.

I’m not expecting much out of The Book of Clarence and a mid single digits premiere puts it in eighth in my estimation.

The largest drop should belong to Night Swim. Sizable horror dips are common and it doesn’t help that reviews and word-of-mouth is underwater. A fall from 2nd to 8th is possible.

And with that, we will do a top 8 this time around. Keep in mind that all estimates are for Friday thru Monday…

1. Mean Girls

Predicted Gross: $27.6 million

2. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

3. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

4. Anyone but You

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

5. Migration

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

6. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

7. Night Swim

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

8. The Book of Clarence

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (January 5-7)

Box office 2024 kicked off with Wonka wrapping up a third weekend atop the charts with $14 million, a bit below my $16.3 million take. In four weeks, the holiday hit has amassed $164 million with $200 million domestic in its sights.

As mentioned, Night Swim was a second place finisher with $11.7 million. That’s under my $14.1 million forecast, but still a fair showing considering the reported $15 million price tag. It is, however, well under what M3GAN accomplished for Universal/Blumhouse in the same frame last year.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom was third with $10.6 million, rising above my $8.3 million prediction. The DCU sequel finally hit $100 million after three weeks.

Migration was fourth with $9.9 million (I was higher at $12.8 million) as the animated offering has grossed $77 million since its Yuletide start.

Anyone but You continues to confound expectations with an 11% increase in its third go-round. With $9.7 million (exceeding my $6.7 million call), the total is $43 million and climbing.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 5-7 Box Office Predictions

The first box office weekend of the new year has Universal and Blumhouse diving in with their supernatural horror flick Night Swim. It’s the only newcomer out amongst holiday leftovers. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Night Swim Box Office Prediction

My mid teens estimate for Swim puts it in contention for the top spot. If it underperforms, that could allow Wonka another frame atop the charts. There’s also the distinct possibility that it exceeds expectations as M3GAN did for the same studio and production company one year back. I landed on it coming in q a bit behind Wonka.

With Wonka holding the runner-up spot, Migration should stay in third with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom sliding to fourth and Anyone but You rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million

2. Night Swim

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million

3. Migration

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

4. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

5. Anyone but You

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

Box Office Results (December 29-31)

Wonka was the top confection for audiences with $22.6 million in its third frame as 2023 wrapped up. That’s right on target with my $22.4 million call as the musical origin tale has amassed $133 million thus far and stands as the holiday pic of the season.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, as expected, fell to second with $18.2 million in its sophomore outing. A slight improvement over my $16.8 million forecast, it faces choppy waters compared to the massive grosses of its 2018 predecessor. Overseas grosses are fairly decent and it stands at $76 million stateside.

Migration had a nice hold in third with $17 million, on pace with my $17.9 million projection. The animated adventure from Illumination has formed a tally of $54 million after two weeks.

After a loud Christmas Day start, The Color Purple is settling down. It managed $11.7 million in its first full weekend in fourth, falling under my $15.4 million prediction. The musical has taken in $44 million since 12/25.

Rom com Anyone but You rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it in that spot. With $8.7 million, it has surpassed estimates with $24 million in two weeks.

Another holiday offering that has exceeded anticipation is George Clooney’s The Boys in the Boat. The period piece sports drama was sixth with $8.4 million (I said $7.9 million) for $21 million total since Christmas Day.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Night Swim Box Office Prediction

Universal Pictures is the first studio to wade into the 2024 release calendar when Night Swim opens on January 5th. The supernatural horror pic is the debut feature length effort director Bryce McGuire, adapting his own 2014 short film. James Wan (currently helming his own H2O themed Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom in theaters) and Jason Blum produce. Wyatt Russell, Kerry Condon, Amélie Hoeferle, and Gavin Warren star.

The studio and production companies behind Swim had a massive hit in the same weekend in 2023 with M3GAN. That buzzy flick made off with $30 million in its initial frame and ended up with $95 million domestically.

Swim is not anticipated to log that much cash. Yet a gross in the mid to possibly high teens could make the new year’s inaugural release a decent sized success.

Night Swim opening weekend prediction: $14.1 million

December 29-December 31 Box Office Predictions

2023 closes out with no newcomers, but a host of Christmas holdovers as Wonka looks to bounce back into the top spot with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom sliding to at least second.

I’m making these top five predictions for the traditional three-day weekend and not counting New Year’s Day (which typically sees brisk business at multiplexes). We are still awaiting final numbers for the long Christmas weekend. That includes from Warner Bros who have Wonka, Aquaman, and The Color Purple atop the charts.

The Boys in the Boat (which opened on Christmas to significantly better numbers than I figured) should round out the top five. While Aquaman should come in second, I suspect Migration could rise to the runner-up spot as families catch up on product over another holiday weekend.

Here’s my best guess on how it will look:

1. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $22.7 million

2. Migration

Predicted Gross: $17.9 million

3. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million

4. The Color Purple

Predicted Gross: $15.4 million

5. The Boys in the Boat

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

Oscar Predictions: Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

It’s been a rough cinematic 2023 for DC Studios with flops Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, and Blue Beetle. Over this Christmas weekend, early numbers indicate that their latest Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom may be another entry that opens below expectations. Jason Wan returns to direct his sequel to the 2018 blockbuster with Jason Momoa back in the title role. Costars include Patrick Wilson, Amber Heard, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Randall Park, Dolph Lundgren, Temuera Morrison, Martin Short (!), and Nicole Kidman.

The review embargo lifted on Thursday – the day of its unveiling in multiplexes. That’s usually not a good sign and that proved true with an underwater Rotten Tomatoes rating of 36%. Its predecessor managed 65%.

The 2018 original came up empty-handed in the awards space and didn’t make the 10 picture shortlist for Visual Effects. This sequel popped up on the first 20 contenders for VE. However, when the whittled down list of 10 were revealed Thursday, Lost was nowhere to be found. The fourth DCU offering of the year will share the same number of Academy nods as the first three: none. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

December 22-25 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (12/21): I am increasing my The Color Purple one-day projection from $7.9M to $12.9M

With Christmas falling on a Monday this year, this is one of the most jam packed Yuletide box office seasons in memory. There’s a whole bunch of cinematic gifts that studios hope open well. On Friday (December 22), Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom looks to top the charts and reverse the misfortunes of the DCU in 2023. Joining Aquaman for the long weekend are Illumination Entertainment’s animated Migration, wrestling biopic The Iron Claw with Zac Efron, Indian Telugu-language action epic Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire, Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell’s rom com Anyone but You, and the nationwide expansion of Oscar hopeful Poor Things with Emma Stone. On Christmas Day, they are joined by The Color Purple (adapting the Broadway musical which adapted the 1985 Spielberg pic which adapted the acclaimed novel), Michael Mann’s Ferrari with Adam Driver, and the George Clooney directed Olympic period piece The Boys in the Boat. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all nine (yes, nine) right here:

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Box Office Prediction
Migration Box Office Prediction
The Iron Claw Box Office Prediction
Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire Box Office Prediction
Anyone but You Box Office Prediction
Poor Things Box Office Prediction
The Color Purple Box Office Prediction
Ferrari Box Office Prediction
The Boys in the Boat Box Office Prediction

Even Aquaman himself, Jason Momoa, recently stated in an interview that the future of the franchise is murky at best. Despite the 2018 original making over a billion bucks worldwide, expectations for the sequel are underwater after the DCU’s year that included flops Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, and Blue Beetle. The worst case scenario is that this opens second to Wonka. On the bright side: Warner Bros gets the #1 slot either way. A low to mid 40s beginning from Friday to Monday is nothing to brag about, but that should get it to first place.

Wonka got off to a pretty sweet start at the top of its anticipated range (more on that below). Since I’m doing predictions from December 22-25, it may only decline from the high 30s to the mid to high 20s with bright weekends ahead (especially over New Year’s).

Therefore Wonka might be the family choice over Christmas and that could put Migration in third with a high teens or low 20s output. For Illumination, the silver lining should be small declines in subsequent frames.

I’m expecting a fourth place finish for The Iron Claw as wrestling fans could turn out to the tune of high single digits.

As for the three features out on Christmas Day, this obviously means I’m only doing a one-day projection. The Color Purple, with its well-known source material, should do best among that trio and I have its single day managing a fifth place showing.

Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire could over perform, but I have it in ninth. The newcomers should dominate the top ten as I have Anyone but You in sixth with the Poor Things expansion in seventh.

I do have holdovers The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes and Trolls Band Together finishing out the top ten.

That means my single day estimates for Ferrari ($2.1 million) and The Boys in the Boat ($1.1 million) leave them outside the top ten.

Truth be told, this is a highly unpredictable Christmas weekend with lots of moving parts. Here’s my best attempt at that top 10 and keep in mind that this is for Friday-Monday:

1. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $42.8 million

2. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $31.4 million

3. Migration

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

4. The Color Purple

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

5. The Iron Claw

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

6. Anyone but You

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

7. Poor Things

Predicted Gross: $5 million

8. Salaar: Part One – Ceasefire

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

9. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

10. Trolls Band Together

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

Box Office Results (December 15-17)

Warner Bros might face choppy waters ahead with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, but the Wonka opening went swimmingly. Timothee Chalamet’s take on the iconic chocolatier was treated to a $39 million start. That’s slightly ahead of my $36.4 million prediction as the family pic should have a robust road ahead this season.

It was the only newcomer this past weekend (which makes sense considering the onslaught ahead). The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes stayed put in second with $5.8 million, a smidge under my $6.6 million call. The prequel is up to $145 million after five weekends.

The Boy and the Heron, after its better than anticipated bow, dropped from 1st to 3rd with $5.5 million. That’s lower than my $7 million forecast as the ten-day take is $23 million.

Godzilla Minus One was fourth with $5 million (I said $5.7 million) for $34 million after three weeks.

Trolls Band Together rounded out the top five with $3.9 million compared to my $4.6 million projection. The threequel is approaching nine figures after five weeks with $88 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Have a wonderful holiday and until next time…

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Box Office Prediction

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom hopes to rescue a troubling 2023 for the DCU when it opens December 22nd. Following up on the 2018 original, James Wan returns to direct with Jason Momoa back in the title role. Patrick Wilson, Amber Heard, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, and Nicole Kidman costar.

With a reported budget of $215 million, the sequel needs solid domestic and overseas grosses to stay above water. That could be a challenge. The DCU has seen its share of flops this year including Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, and Blue Beetle.

The superhero’s first adventure five years ago ended up making an impressive $335 million stateside and $1.1 billion worldwide. It exceeded expectations, but Kingdom could fall under or just match them.

With Christmas on a Monday, I’m projecting a Friday to Monday number. Aquaman also came out on the big holiday weekend and Christmas was on a Tuesday. It took in $105 million in its first five days. This one might be fortunate to gross about half of that during its first four. I’m saying it won’t.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom opening weekend prediction: $42.8 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Migration prediction, click here:

Migration Box Office Prediction

For my The Iron Claw prediction, click here:

The Iron Claw Box Office Prediction

For my Anyone but You prediction, click here:

Anyone but You Box Office Prediction

For my Poor Things prediction, click here:

Poor Things Box Office Prediction

For my The Color Purple prediction, click here:

The Color Purple Box Office Prediction

For my Ferrari prediction, click here:

Ferrari Box Office Prediction

For my The Boys in the Boat prediction, click here:

The Boys in the Boat Box Office Prediction

For my Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire prediction, click here:

Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire Box Office Prediction