Tag: Anyone but You

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actor Race

My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Sunday, January 19th (note the new date) prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd. Note that new date too as the Academy pushed back the nomination unveilings due to the California wildfires. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

The fourth post in this series is Best Actor. If you missed my write-ups for the other three acting derbies, you can access them here:

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race
97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actress Race
97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actor Race

Truth be told, this is the easiest quintet of the acting categories to forecast. There are five performers who have nabbed nominations in four of the most important precursors – the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTA long list. They are: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave). The safe bet is to predict this group being the Oscar hopefuls and that’s where my head is at currently.

However, Craig in particular could be vulnerable. Queer is not a contender in Best Picture or any other race with the possible exception of Adapted Screenplay (and that’s a long shot).

Before we discuss actors who could replace him, let’s spend a moment remembering those leading men who were once looked at as possibilities. This is before their movies flamed out or their roles just weren’t “baity” enough. It is also due to them not really showing up anywhere in precursors. I’m looking at you, Joaquin Phoenix in Joker: Folie à Deux. And Adam Driver in Megalopolis is in that club. Same goes for Paul Mescal (Gladiator II), Tom Hanks (Here), Kevin Costner (Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), Cillian Murphy (Small Things like These), and Andrew Garfield (We Live in Time).

There’s three gentlemen who made the BAFTA long list who really have no shot at Oscar glory – Kingsley Ben-Adir (Bob Marley: One Love), Jude Law (Firebrand), and Dev Patel (Monkey Man). There are Globe nominees in Actor (Musical or Comedy) that you could say the same about – Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night) and Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness).

That leaves 5 performances jockeying for one slot: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Glen Powell (Hit Man), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), and Sebastian Stan (A Different Man). I remind you that, as of now, I’d put them all behind Craig. Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?

Jesse Eisenberg’s fortunes could rise slightly if A Real Pain gets into Best Picture (which I am forecasting it won’t at press time). I suspect voters will only honor his costar Kieran Culkin in supporting and I’d rank him 4th out of these 5 possibilities. Eisenberg has only managed a Globe nod which he did not win.

Hugh Grant also nabbed a Globe nod in the horror pic Heretic and was BAFTA longlisted and is up at Critics Choice. Had he emerged victorious for Actor (Musical or Comedy) at the Globes, he might be a more attractive pick. This is a little tempting since he’s never received Oscar attention, but I have him 2nd out of the 5 possibilities.

Glen Powell has had a great couple of years with massive hits Top Gun: Maverick, Anyone but You, and Twisters. His turn in Richard Linklater’s acclaimed comedy was an early trendy pick for inclusion. Like Eisenberg and Grant, he was up at the Globes and fell short. I have him 5th out of 5 possibilities.

Sebastian Stan’s embodiment of a young Donald Trump in The Apprentice was Globe nominated and BAFTA longlisted. The Critics Choice and SAG omissions sting though I’d rank him 1st of these 5 possibilities.

For our double shot of Stan, he did win Actor (Musical or Comedy) for his role in A Different Man at the Golden Globes. Yet none of the six nominated performers in that category are truly seen as viable hopefuls at Oscar. I have this iteration of Stan 3rd of these 5 possibilities.

OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Actor for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Sunday when I do my final picks. My post for Best Director is up next!

Oscar Predictions: Hit Man (Take II)

This is the first time I’ve written a second Oscar Predictions post on the same picture, but it feels warranted with Richard Linklater’s Hit Man. Why? Happy to explain. The dark rom com premiered to sizzling buzz in Venice and Toronto last fall (the RT score is still an impressive 97%). I wrote my initial post on its awards chances on September 5th. You can peruse it here:

Oscar Predictions: Hit Man

At that juncture, its distribution was up in the air. I assumed it would find a release in 2023. However, Netflix scooped up it up and it’s out for streaming viewership this weekend some nine months plus later. A lot has changed since that festival birth.

Glen Powell is an even bigger star. Last September, I talked about how he was hot off a supporting role in Top Gun: Maverick. Now he’s fresh from a headlining turn in the unexpected rom com blockbuster Anyone but You. He’s a month away from starring in summer tentpole Twisters. In the fall of ’23, I stated that Best Actor was too crowded already for him to vie for a slot. That’s not the case in June of ’24 though we don’t know if there will be room for him among forthcoming dramatic performances in the second half of the year. When I did my last forecast two weeks ago, I had him in the quintet for Actor. We’ll see if he remains there when I do my next update on Sunday. I do think he’s viable and I do believe he gets a Golden Globe nod in the Musical/Comedy race for lead Actor. If he doesn’t, that probably means Netflix did a poor job campaigning. Adria Arjona, his love interest, could be in the mix for Actress in the same classification. For that matter, a GG mention in Best Picture (Musical/Comedy) might materialize.

Not everything has changed. The strongest Oscar chance is in Adapted Screenplay where Linklater has been nominated thrice before with Before Sunset, Before Midnight, and Boyhood. If and when that happens, Powell would be along for the ride since he co-scripted.

As for BP itself, you never know. I’ve had it listed in the bottom rungs of my top 25 possibilities. While a long shot, it could hit if too many of the upcoming hopefuls fall short of expectations. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

March 22-24 Box Office Predictions

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire hopes to heat up the box office this weekend while Immaculate looks to bring in horror fans. My detailed prediction posts on the two newcomers can be accessed here:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Box Office Prediction
Immaculate Box Office Prediction

The fifth feature in the franchise, Empire will try to match or exceed the mid 40s earnings that 2016’s Ghostbusters and immediate predecessor Ghostbusters: Afterlife from 2021 achieved in their debuts. I have it a tad under in the low 40s for what will easily be a #1 start.

We are likely to witness a battle for second between holdovers Kung Fu Panda 4 and Dune: Part Two. I have each dipping in the mid to high 30s with the animated sequel barely edging the sci-fi sequel.

Immaculate is a genuine question mark. Neon’s supernatural fright fest stars Sydney Sweeney, who’s coming off the hot Anyone but You and also the cold Madame Web. It seems to be flying under the radar, but could over perform as the genre often does. My mid single digits take puts it firmly in fourth with the disappointing Arthur the King rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I think it will play out:

1. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

Predicted Gross: $42.7 million

2. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million

3. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $17.4 million

4. Immaculate

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Arthur the King

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

Box Office Results (March 15-17)

Kung Fu Panda 4 held the crown for the second weekend in a row with $30.1 million, right on target with my $30.6 million estimate. The two-week tally puts it over the century mark at $107 million as it continues to outpace part 3.

Dune: Part Two, as expected, had a nice hold in weekend #3 with $28.5 million. I was on pace with my $29.4 million forecast as its surpassed the double century mark with $204 million.

Mark Wahlberg’s canine tale Arthur the King failed to bring in audiences with only $7.6 million, well under my $12.5 million call. I’m expecting a sophomore drop over 50% this weekend.

Imaginary held better than I assumed with $5.5 million compared to my $4.4 million projection. The teddy bear themed horror pic stands at $19 million after two outings and that’s nearly double its budget.

Faith-based Cabrini plummeted 61% in weekend #2 with $2.8 million and that’s below my $4.1 million prediction. The total is $13 million.

Finally, Kristen Stewart’s critically acclaimed crime thriller Love Lies Bleeding had a fairly anemic wide rollout in sixth with $2.4 million (I said $3.7 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Immaculate Box Office Prediction

Sydney Sweeney is in Scream Queen mode when Immaculate is delivered to theaters on March 22nd. The fright fest finds the Euphoria, Anyone but You, and Madame Web star as a devout nun uncovering demonic happenings in the Italian countryside. Michael Mohan directs with a supporting cast including Álvaro Morte, Benedetta Porcaroli, Dora Romano, Giorgio Colangeli, and Simona Tabasco.

The Neon distributed effort is generating uneven reviews (it premiered at South by Southwest earlier this week). The RT meter stands at 64%. I haven’t seen a screen count and the marketing campaign seems a bit on the underwhelming side.

Horror can exceed expectations and that might hold true with Immaculate. Yet I wonder if this can manage the $9M+ that The Pope’s Exorcist achieved for its start last year. It might be lucky to earn half of that.

Immaculate opening weekend prediction: $4.9 million

For my Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire prediction, click here:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Box Office Prediction

Madame Web Box Office Prediction

Dakota Johnson headlines as the title character in Madame Web, Sony’s fourth feature in their Spider-Man Universe on February 14th. The studio is hoping its grosses are closer to Venom and its sequel than Morbius. S.J. Clarkson directs with a supporting cast including Sydney Sweeney (hot off Anyone but You), Celeste O’Connor, Isabela Merced, and Tahar Rahim.

Ms. Johnson is no stranger to the Valentine’s Day/President’s Day weekend frame considering the Fifty Shades trilogy. Web will attempt to bring in a female contingent, but also a sizable male crowd craving some comic book action.

Debuting on Wednesday, my forecast includes the Friday to Monday long weekend projection along with its two extra days. A best case scenario might be in the $35-40 million neighborhood for the six-day total. I’m skeptical it gets that high. A low to mid 20s start for the four-day and high 20s to low 30s range over the longer haul sounds likelier.

Madame Web opening weekend prediction: $21.5 million (Friday to Monday); $30.7 million (Wednesday to Monday)

For my Bob Marley: One Love prediction, click here:

Bob Marley: One Love Box Office Prediction

February 2-4 Box Office Predictions

Matthew Vaughn’s star-studded spy comedy Argylle will end the Mean Girls three-week reign atop the charts as February kicks off at the box office. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Argylle Box Office Prediction

After a dreadful end to January where filmgoers were especially preoccupied with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Taylor Swift, Brock Purdy, Lions, and Ravens, a low 20s start for Argylle should inject at least some life into multiplexes.

The runner-up spot could be another newcomer. Christian series The Chosen is debuting the first three episodes of its fourth season beginning on Thursday. I didn’t do an individual write-up for it, but the Friday to Sunday portion should get to mid or even high single digits. That would likely give it the 2 slot.

Holdovers will populate the rest of the top five. I’m assuming The Beekeeper and Wonka will have smaller declines than current champ Mean Girls. If my estimates pan out, that could mean a 1st to 5th place drop for said Girls.

Here’s how I have it playing out:

1. Argylle

Predicted Gross: $18.3 million

2. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

3. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

4. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

5. Mean Girls

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

Box Office Results (January 26-28)

As mentioned, it was a tepid end to January as studios sat the weekend out. In fact, it was the weakest frame in nearly two years. The top five features did all manage to slightly exceed my projections.

Mean Girls took in $6.9 million for subdued bragging rights over my $6 million call. The three-week tally is $60 million as it hopes to match the $86 million earned by the original 20 years ago (not adjusted for inflation).

The Beekeeper nearly grabbed the top spot at $6.6 million, dipping a mere 22% in its third outing. I went lower at $5.1 million. Its better than anticipated gross is $41 million.

Wonka was third with $5.6 million, in range with my $5.3 million call. The seven-week take for the largest holiday hit is $194 million. It should hit $200 million later this week.

Migration was fourth with $4.8 million (I said $4.5 million) as it crossed the century mark after six weeks with $101 million.

Anyone but You rounded out the top five as it continued its impressive run at $4.6 million (I forecasted $4.2 million). The rom com is up to $71 million since its Christmas bow.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 26-28 Box Office Predictions

The month of January seems destined to go out with a whimper as thriller Miller’s Girl with Martin Freeman and Jenna Ortega is the sole wide release. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Miller’s Girl Box Office Prediction

The top five may look very similar to this previous frame except the earnings will be even smaller. Mean Girls could manage a third weekend at #1 with a drop close to 50%. If it drops more precipitously, that could open the door for Wonka or The Beekeeper to vault over it.

Migration and Anyone but You are likely to stay put in fourth and fifth.

You’ll notice I haven’t discussed Miller’s Girl yet and that’s because my $2.2 million leaves it on the outside looking in.

Here’s my top 5 forecast:

1. Mean Girls

Predicted Gross: $6 million

2. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

3. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

4. Migration

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

5. Anyone but You

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (January 19-21)

Mean Girls, despite a hefty 59% drop, was perched in 1st for the second weekend with $11.6 million. That’s just under my $12.6 million prediction as the ten-day gross reached $50 million.

Jason Statham’s The Beekeeper was the runner-up again with $8.6 million (right on target with my $8.7 million projection) for $31 million thus far.

Wonka was third with an additional $6.7 million (I said $6 million) to bring its haul to $187 million with $200 million approaching.

Migration made $5.4 million for fourth. I went with $4.9 million as the animated feature is getting to nine digits with $94 million.

Anyone but You continued its impressive run in fifth with $5.4 million, on pace with my $5.5 million call. The tally is $64 million.

Lastly, sci-fi thriller I.S.S. was a dud. It started off in seventh with $3 million, in range with my $2.6 million take.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 19-21 Box Office Predictions

The space station set sci-fi thriller I.S.S. is the only wide release debut in what should be a sluggish weekend at the box office. Our newcomer may struggle to make the top five and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

I.S.S. Box Office Prediction

After a fetching start (more on that below), Mean Girls should remain #1 for the second weekend. However, with a weak B Cinemascore grade, a drop in the mid to high 50s is possible. It still might be the only title to get beyond $10 million as the typical January slowdown commences.

Jason Statham’s action thriller The Beekeeper, after its stronger than anticipated premiere, should be keeping its spot at #2 with a mid to high 40s decline.

The rest of the top five should consist of holiday leftovers with Wonka, Anyone but You, and Migration all experiencing meager dips.

Back to I.S.S. I’m just not seeing a launch of any magnitude and my $2.6 million forecast does indeed mean a showing outside the high five.

Here’s how I do see it:

1. Mean Girls

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million

2. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

3. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $6 million

4. Anyone but You

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

5. Migration

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (January 12-15)

It was a robust premiere for the latest take on Mean Girls as the musical comedy scored $33.6 million over the four-day MLK weekend. That’s over my $27.6 million prediction and at the peak end of its anticipated range.

The Beekeeper also exceeded expectations with $18.7 million, well over my $10.6 million projection. It proved to be a viable option for action fans despite bad weather and playoff football. P.S. – now that my Browns are out, go Texans (Buckeye CJ Stroud) or Lions (long suffering fanbase).

Wonka was third with $11 million, not matching my $12.9 million call. The hit of the holidays has amassed $178 million after five weeks with $200 million domestic in its sights.

Migration was fourth with $8.5 million (I said $8.3 million) as it approaches the century mark with $88 million in four weekends.

Anyone but You rounded out the top five and also grossed $8.5 million for its impressive four-week haul of $56 million. A went with a little more at $9.5 million.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom was sixth with $6.3 million, under my $7.6 million guesstimate, for $109 million overall since its Christmas weekend bow.

Badly reviewed horror flick Night Swim plummeted from 2nd to 7th with $5.4 million (I said $6.1 million) for two-week earnings of $20 million.

Finally, Biblical dramedy The Book of Clarence couldn’t find an audience. It was ninth with a mere $3 million compared to my projection of $5.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 12-15 Box Office Predictions

The four-day MLK weekend finds three new ride release entries with Mean Girls (based on the Broadway play that’s based on the 2004 comedy), action thriller The Beekeeper with Jason Statham, and Biblical dramedy The Book of Clarence. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Mean Girls Box Office Prediction
The Beekeeper Box Office Prediction
The Book of Clarence Box Office Prediction

Mean Girls should easily manage to be first #1 title released from 2024. That’s something Night Swim couldn’t do this weekend (more on that below). With an anticipated sizable female audience, Girls may take in low to high 20s over the Friday to Monday portion of the extended frame.

The Beekeeper could certainly exceed my expectations, but I have it barely clearing $10 million. That should put it in third behind the fifth weekend of Wonka.

If you look at previous MLK four-days, holiday leftovers can often have slight decreases or even small increases. That could be the case with rom com Anyone but You which has proven to be impressively durable since its Christmas bow. That said, Girls does serve as direct competition. I have it rising from fifth to fourth with Migration rounding out the top five.

I’m not expecting much out of The Book of Clarence and a mid single digits premiere puts it in eighth in my estimation.

The largest drop should belong to Night Swim. Sizable horror dips are common and it doesn’t help that reviews and word-of-mouth is underwater. A fall from 2nd to 8th is possible.

And with that, we will do a top 8 this time around. Keep in mind that all estimates are for Friday thru Monday…

1. Mean Girls

Predicted Gross: $27.6 million

2. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

3. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

4. Anyone but You

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

5. Migration

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

6. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

7. Night Swim

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

8. The Book of Clarence

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (January 5-7)

Box office 2024 kicked off with Wonka wrapping up a third weekend atop the charts with $14 million, a bit below my $16.3 million take. In four weeks, the holiday hit has amassed $164 million with $200 million domestic in its sights.

As mentioned, Night Swim was a second place finisher with $11.7 million. That’s under my $14.1 million forecast, but still a fair showing considering the reported $15 million price tag. It is, however, well under what M3GAN accomplished for Universal/Blumhouse in the same frame last year.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom was third with $10.6 million, rising above my $8.3 million prediction. The DCU sequel finally hit $100 million after three weeks.

Migration was fourth with $9.9 million (I was higher at $12.8 million) as the animated offering has grossed $77 million since its Yuletide start.

Anyone but You continues to confound expectations with an 11% increase in its third go-round. With $9.7 million (exceeding my $6.7 million call), the total is $43 million and climbing.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 5-7 Box Office Predictions

The first box office weekend of the new year has Universal and Blumhouse diving in with their supernatural horror flick Night Swim. It’s the only newcomer out amongst holiday leftovers. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Night Swim Box Office Prediction

My mid teens estimate for Swim puts it in contention for the top spot. If it underperforms, that could allow Wonka another frame atop the charts. There’s also the distinct possibility that it exceeds expectations as M3GAN did for the same studio and production company one year back. I landed on it coming in q a bit behind Wonka.

With Wonka holding the runner-up spot, Migration should stay in third with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom sliding to fourth and Anyone but You rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million

2. Night Swim

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million

3. Migration

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

4. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

5. Anyone but You

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

Box Office Results (December 29-31)

Wonka was the top confection for audiences with $22.6 million in its third frame as 2023 wrapped up. That’s right on target with my $22.4 million call as the musical origin tale has amassed $133 million thus far and stands as the holiday pic of the season.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, as expected, fell to second with $18.2 million in its sophomore outing. A slight improvement over my $16.8 million forecast, it faces choppy waters compared to the massive grosses of its 2018 predecessor. Overseas grosses are fairly decent and it stands at $76 million stateside.

Migration had a nice hold in third with $17 million, on pace with my $17.9 million projection. The animated adventure from Illumination has formed a tally of $54 million after two weeks.

After a loud Christmas Day start, The Color Purple is settling down. It managed $11.7 million in its first full weekend in fourth, falling under my $15.4 million prediction. The musical has taken in $44 million since 12/25.

Rom com Anyone but You rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it in that spot. With $8.7 million, it has surpassed estimates with $24 million in two weeks.

Another holiday offering that has exceeded anticipation is George Clooney’s The Boys in the Boat. The period piece sports drama was sixth with $8.4 million (I said $7.9 million) for $21 million total since Christmas Day.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…