Oscar Predictions: The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is ready to launch in theaters over Easter weekend and expected to dominate the charts. The sequel to 2023’s box office juggernaut The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Aaron Horvath and Michael Jelenic are back directing Illumination Entertainment’s comedic adventure based on the Nintendo IP. Voiceover contributions come from Chris Pratt, Anya Taylor-Joy, Charlie Day, Jack Black, Keegan-Michael Key, Benny Safdie, Donald Glover, Brie Larson, and Glen Powell.

While audiences gobbled up the 2023 offering and are likely to do the same here, critics were mostly lukewarm. The original rated at 59% on Rotten Tomatoes with a 46 Metacritic. Despite some buzz for its song “Peaches”, Mario wasn’t represented in Original Song or in the Animated Feature category at the 96th Academy Awards.

Reviews are on the downslide for the follow-up with a 44% RT and 37 Meta. We’ve already seen one animated effort (Disney/Pixar’s Hoppers) that probably has a reserved slot in the Animated Feature quintet at the 99th ceremony. That’s not the case with Galaxy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie Box Office Prediction

Illumination Entertainment looks to light up the Easter frame with The Super Mario Galaxy Movie on April 1st. The animated comedic adventure is the follow-up to 2023’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie which debuted over the same holiday to fantastic results. Aaron Horvath and Michael Jelenic are back co-directing with Chris Pratt, Anya Taylor-Joy, Charlie Day, Jack Black, Keegan- Michael Key, and Kevin Michael Richardson reprising the voices of their Nintendo character roles. Newcomers behind the mic include Benny Safdie, Donald Glover, Issa Rae, Luis Guzmán, and Brie Larson.

As mentioned, 2023’s original was a massive blockbuster. In early April, it too rolled out over an expanded five-day period to top level results. The three-day start was $146.3 million with $204.6 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. It would leg out to $574 million and become the year’s second largest domestic earner behind Barbie.

With a short lag time for the sequel, a best case scenario might be a premiere on par or slightly better than its predecessor. I suspect it might coming in lower, but still with impressive numbers.

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie opening weekend prediction: $126.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $172.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my The Drama prediction, click here:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga Box Office Prediction

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga storms into theaters this Memorial Day weekend as it hopes to improve upon the numbers of its 2015 predecessor Mad Max: Fury Road. The fifth feature of a franchise that began in 1979, George Miller returns to the director’s chair and this is the first Max tale without Max (in the form of Mel Gibson or Tom Hardy). The prequel casts Anya Taylor-Joy in the title role that Charlize Theron played nine years back. Chris Hemsworth costars along with Alyla Browne, Tom Burke, Lachy Hulme, Nathan Jones, Josh Helman, John Howard, and Angus Sampson.

With a reported budget of nearly $170 million, Warner Bros is banking on fruitful stateside returns and buoyant international results. Early signs are encouraging. Its Cannes premiere has produced an 88% RT score. While that’s not as high as Fury, word-of-mouth should be solid.

Back in 2015, Fury grossed $45 million in its mid-May opening slot en route to $153 million domestically. Furiosa will have the benefit of a four-day report due to the holiday. Hitting $50 million is achievable from Friday to Monday. I suspect it may slightly fall under that figure.

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga opening weekend prediction: $47.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my The Garfield Movie prediction, click here:

For my Sight prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

At the 88th Academy Awards covering the films of 2015, Mad Max: Fury Road received 10 nominations (the second highest behind The Revenant) and the most victories with 6. The wins were for Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing. It came up short in Picture, Director (George Miller), Cinematography, and Visual Effects.

For the 97th Oscars, voters will have prequel Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga to consider. Miller’s fifth feature in the franchise that began 45 years ago has screened at Cannes prior to its Memorial Day weekend domestic release. Anya Taylor-Joy plays the title character portrayed by Charlize Theron in Fury Road. Chris Hemsworth costars along with Tom Burke, Alyla Browne, Lachy Hulme, Josh Helman, John Howard, and Angus Sampson.

Early reaction is certainly encouraging with an 87% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Some critics are claiming it’s on par with the predecessor while others say it doesn’t quite measure up (Road‘s RT score was 97%).

Saga‘s biggest hurdle to break into Picture and Director could be another sci-fi series entry from earlier this year and that is Dune: Part Two. That pic has likely punched its ticket in those two big races and there may not be room for Furiosa. That said, all those tech competitions could be in play and it could fall short to Dune in a few of them. Sound Editing and Mixing has since become one category so a best case scenario could be seven nods. There will some internet chatter for Hemsworth in Supporting Actor, but I suspect it will remain just that. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…