Tag: Anora

98th Academy Awards Predictions: November 23rd Edition

The five Best Picture winners from this decade have all seen at least one of their cast members win an acting Oscar: Frances McDormand was Best Actress for 2020’s Nomadland, Troy Kotsur took Supporting Actor for 2021’s CODA, 2022’s Everything Everywhere All at Once boasted victories in Actress (Michelle Yeoh), Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis), and Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan), Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. were the lead and supporting actor winners for Oppenheimer in 2023, and Mikey Madison was last year’s Actress recipient for Anora.

That’s why it felt strange not having any of the thespians from One Battle for Another listed at #1 in my possibilities. I’ve had the acclaimed Paul Thomas Anderson effort on top of my Best Picture projections for several weeks. Yet I’ve had Leonardo DiCaprio (Best Actor), Sean Penn (Supporting Actor), and Teyana Taylor (Supporting Actress) each listed 2nd behind my current frontrunners in those races.

Excellent arguments can be made for all three to be 1st in their fields. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see at least two Battle ensemble members take gold. Today I am elevating one of them to the top position and that’s Teyana Taylor. She takes the spot with Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) slipping to second. Frankly, this is less about Taylor and more about Wicked‘s so-so critical reaction when the embargo lifted on Monday.

I still have Wicked clinging to a BP nom and Cynthia Erivo managing an Actress nod – though I am less convinced that either will happen. You will see dips in other categories below and it appears unlikely to match the 10 nominations that its predecessor achieved. To be clear, Grande is still a threat to win. She was probably runner-up to Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) last time and there could be enough goodwill for the Good Witch to prevail.

In other developments, I am putting two performers in the supporting fields in for the first time! Amy Madigan’s costume inspiring Weapons work makes the quintet in Supporting Actress. This is partly due to confusion as to which Marty Supreme costar (Gwyneth Paltrow or Odessa A’Zion) is more viable. I basically have them canceling each other out to Madigan’s benefit.

Jacob Elordi’s monstrous performance in Frankenstein is also elevated with Battle‘s Benicio del Toro now on the outside looking in. I nearly dropped Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) but I hesitate to drop him with his costar George Clooney still in my Actor five.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Bugonia (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (E)

13. Train Dreams (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+1)

15. No Other Choice (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)

7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 9) (E)

10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

4. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (+1)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wicked: For Good

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sound of Falling (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Love That Remains (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Scarlet (PR: 6) (E)

7. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Boys Go to Jupiter (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Lost in Starlight (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ne Zha 2

Animal Farm

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (E)

4. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Seeds (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Dead President Now! (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Tale of Silyan

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rental Family (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

F1

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

9. Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. F1 (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wolf Man (PR: 7) (+1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)

10. Weapons (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-2)

8. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (-1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Phoenician Scheme

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (+1)

3. F1 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Warfare (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mickey 17 (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (E)

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Sinners

11 Nominations

Hamnet

8 Nominations

Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good

7 Nominations

Frankenstein

6 Nominations

Jay Kelly

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident

3 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, The Testament of Ann Lee, Train Dreams

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Left-Handed Girl, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Weapons, Zootopia 2

Oscar Predictions: Left-Handed Girl

Anora was the belle of the Academy’s 97th ball last year. Sean Baker became the first person to win four Oscars in a single evening for Best Picture and his direction, screenplay, and editing. He could become a nominee at the 98th ceremony via Left-Handed Girl, a Taiwanese family drama that he co-wrote and produced. His frequent collaborator Shih-Ching Tsou shares screenplay duties and directs. It premiered at Cannes with Netflix handling streaming distribution domestically. The cast includes Janel Tsai, Shih-Yuan Ma, Nine Ye, Brando Huang, and Akio Chen.

The Rotten Tomatoes rating stands at 95% with Metacritic at 76. If Taiwan makes this the hopeful for International Feature Film, it stands a solid shot at nabbing one of the five slots. I have it 8th in my first predictions for IFF posted yesterday. If it were to make the quintet, Girl would be the fourth Taiwanese entry to be nominated and first since 2000’s Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (which won). Scoring a victory likely isn’t in the cards for Tsou, Baker and company. A nod is doable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Life of Chuck (Take 2)

In September of last year, Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck was a surprise winner of the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival. Yet it’s the Cannes Film Festival that may dash Chuck‘s hopes for awards love at the 98th Academy Awards.

Allow me to explain. The People’s Choice Award at TIFF has, for nearly two decades, been one of the more reliable indicators of an eventual Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. How much so? 15 of the last 16 Choice recipients achieved a BP mention including winners Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book, and Nomadland. The current streak of PCA’s to BP nominees stands at 12 in a row. In 2023, American Fiction instantly became an Academy player after the People’s prize and it resulted in five nominations.

However, distributor Neon did an unexpected thing after Chuck took the Toronto prize. They chose not to release the picture in calendar year 2024 and dated it for 2025. The sci-fi drama based on a 2020 Stephen King novella arrives in limited release on June 6th with a nationwide expansion the following week. Tom Hiddleston leads a cast that includes Chiwetel Ejiofor, Karen Gillan, Jacob Tremblay, and Mark Hamill.

Leaving a nine month gap between the TIFF publicity and its release date was a gamble. At Cannes, which concluded just days ago, Neon went on a spending spree. The distributor bought up the rights to Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident from Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi as well as Grand Prix taker Sentimental Value from Joachim Trier and acclaimed Brazilian political thriller The Secret Agent. Conventional wisdom is that Value has already reserved a slot among the ten Oscar BP contenders. Accident and Agent could also factor into the competition.

Needless to say, that leaves Neon in the mode of picking and choosing their favorites. Unless Chuck becomes a sizable sleeper hit at the box office (which seems questionable), Neon may opt to put their full weight behind their international films. Last year when they delayed Chuck, they went all in on Sean Baker’s Anora and that obviously paid off with victories in Picture, Director, Actress (Mikey Madison), and Original Screenplay.

I’ve had Chuck in my 10 predicted BP nominees for the last several weeks, including my latest update from seven days ago. When I publish my updated predictions next weekend, I suspect it will drop out. I do think it stands a solid shot at Adapted Screenplay and maybe Mark Hamill in Supporting Actor. However, Neon’s fortunes at Cannes seem to have diminished Chuck‘s exposure a few months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

98th Academy Awards Predictions: May 25th Edition

It’s been three weeks since I’ve updated my predictions for the 98th Academy Awards and a little thing called the Cannes Film Festival has happened since then. The French extravaganza has become increasingly important when figuring out your eventual Oscar ballots. To what extent? Last year’s winner Anora premiered there and took the Palme d’Or while fellow nominees Emilia Pérez and The Substance were also unveiled. In 2023, Anatomy of a Fall‘s Palme victory translated to a BP nomination while The Zone of Interest and Killers of the Flower Moon were also on the slate. 2022 Palme recipient Triangle of Sadness was part of the Academy’s BP ten while Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick premiered out of competition. You get the idea.

This year’s proceedings bestowed top prize to Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident. And while a Palme d’Or certainly increases a picture’s chances in BP, I’m not ready to vault it into the Oscar top 10. As for the Grand Prix winner (essentially runner-up), I already had Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value in my ten and the Cannes premiere solidified that projection.

There were performances that gained momentum like Value’s quadrology of Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård, Elle Fanning, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Same goes for Jennifer Lawrence in Die, My Love and Cannes Best Actor Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent, who goes from unranked to my top 5.

Per usual, there were movies whose awards consideration hopes faded. That list includes The History of Sound, Alpha, Eddington, and The Phoenician Scheme.

Yet for all the Cannes chatter, my new #1 in BP has nothing to do with that event. I’ve had Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt slotted atop that chart over the last few weeks. Truth be told, that’s plain ole guesswork since it has yet to screen. I’m replacing it with Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale Sinners, the box office phenomenon that opened in April. Do I think it’s going to win BP? Probably not though it’s obviously far too early for that call. I do think that it and Sentimental Value (also rising) are the two pics that have been viewed that will not miss the cut.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 3) (+2)

2. After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Bugonia (PR: 12) (-1)

14. It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

16. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (-2)

17. Sound of Falling (PR: Not Ranked)

18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)

19. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (-4)

20. Die, My Love (PR: 16) (-4)

21. Ann Lee (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Rental Family (PR: 22) (E)

23. F1 (PR: 21) (-2)

24. The Smashing Machine (PR: 23) (-1)

25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Highest 2 Lowest

Michael – the Michael Jackson biopic is reportedly moving to 2026

Is This Thing On?

Alpha

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (E)

15. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

Lynne Ramsay, Die, My Love

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (+1)

11. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)

13. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Margot Robbie, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (+1)

3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)

10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked – moved from supporting)

11. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Paul Mescal, Hamnet (moved to supporting)

Jaafar Jackson, Michael

Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Andrew Scott, Pressure

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)

9. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 13) (E)

14. Tilda Swinton, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee

Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Greta Lee, Late Fame

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead actor)

7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Stephen Graham, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Jack O’Connell, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Colman Domingo, Michael

Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (moved to lead actor)

Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?

Brendan Fraser, Pressure

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Neon Lights Up Cannes

No one can do Cannes like Neon. The indie film production company has ruled the French festival for six years straight when it comes to the Palme d’Or winner. That list consists of Parasite, Titane, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, and Anora. The first and last movies in that quintet went onto win Best Picture at the Oscars with Triangle and Anatomy nabbing nominations.

Neon once again had contenders to spare at this year’s competition and many assumed the grand prize would go to Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. That acclaimed family drama immediately established itself as an Oscar contender. Yet the Cannes jury (headed by Juliette Binoche) instead chose another Neon property in Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident. It marks another festival triumph for the Iranian filmmaker. His 2000 feature The Circle took top honors in Venice while 2015’s Taxi was awarded best of at the Berlin Fest. Accident now enters the conversation for a BP mention from the Academy and it certainly is a major contender for International Feature Film.

As for the more favored Value, it settled for the Grand Prix designation which is basically runner-up (it went to BP nominee The Zone of Interest in 2023). As mentioned, Neon has high hopes for its future in the coming months.

The Jury Prize (which Emilia Pérez took last time around) was shared between Spanish/French coproduction Sirât from Oliver Laxe and Mascha Schilinski’s German generational tale Sound of Falling (which is also a sturdy hopeful in IFF).

Another major player for Neon is The Secret Agent, the 1970s set Brazilian political thriller. Kieber Mendonça Filho received the Director trophy while Wagner Moura is Best Actor. Look for Agent to have a potential presence in IFF while Moura’s lead campaign could be a real threat for Academy inclusion.

Nadia Melliti is your Best Actress for the French coming-of-age drama The Little Sister. The young actress emerged over heavy hitter Jennifer Lawrence from Die, My Love. Nevertheless Lawrence did strengthen her shot at a fifth Oscar play months down the road.

Some had pegged Richard Linklater’s Nouvelle Vague (which recounts the shooting of French classic Breathless) for some Riviera prizes, but it wasn’t to be. Other high profile premieres not found among the victors are Iranian drama Woman and Child (where Parinaz Izadyar was considered viable in Actress), Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme, and Julia Ducournau’s Titane follow-up Alpha.

Keep an eye on the blog as I continue to write individual posts for movies screened at Cannes. I hadn’t even gotten to Accident yet! As for next year, look to see what Neon’s backing when figuring out the favorites…

Oscar Predictions: Sentimental Value

Distributor Neon has shined brightly at the Cannes Film Festival by releasing the previous five Palme d’Or recipients: Parasite, Titane, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, and Anora. Only Titane missed a Best Picture nod from the Academy. Parasite and Anora won. That’s one of the reasons Joachim Trier’s family drama Sentimental Value is considered to be a serious contender for the top prize in France. Another is because it’s the filmmaker’s follow-up to his acclaimed 2021 effort The Worst Person in the World which reunites him with star Renate Reinsve. The supporting cast includes Stellan Skarsgård, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Elle Fanning, Anders Danielsen Lie, and Cory Michael Smith.

Early festival reaction is effusive and points to Value indeed being a major Palme threat. Neon could guide this to numerous Oscar nods including Picture, Director, Reinsve in Actress, Skasrgård in Supporting Actor, and Original Screenplay. Then there’s Supporting Actress and according to reviews, Neon may have a decision to make as Lilleass and Fanning are both being praised. The latter would be a higher profile campaign, but let’s see how it plays out.

Bottom line: there is no doubt that Sentimental has quickly established itself a potential force at Cannes and beyond. Expect to hear a lot about it this awards season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

98th Academy Awards Predictions: April 21st Edition

A month and change after the 97th ceremony, it is time for my first ranked predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies! I gave you my first numbered looks around the same juncture in 2023 and 2024. Two years ago, my April outlook yielded the winners being mentioned in Picture and Director (Oppenheimer and Christopher Nolan), Actress (Emma Stone for Poor Things), Actor (Oppenheimer‘s Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers), and Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer). Last year… not so much.

Neither Anora, its maker (Sean Baker), or Anora herself (Mikey Madison) were named in April of 2024. The film would debut a month later at Cannes and vault itself into contention. The Brutalist also wasn’t on my radar so no mention of Adrien Brody in Actor. In the supporting fields, Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez was initially ranked 11th while Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) was listed in fourth. Hindsight is 20/20 for 2024, but I had Steve McQueen’s Blitz in first position in Best Picture exactly one year ago. It would go onto receive 0 nominations (pressure is on… After the Hunt).

Let’s get some key caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. Some of the pictures will get pushed back to 2026. Obviously there will be movies that turn out underwhelming and disappear from the awards conversation. Festival titles not listed today will rise up and contend.

You can expect these predictions will be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post (probably in the late summer or early fall when festival season goes into overdrive).

This inaugural preview comes as Ryan Coogler’s Sinners rules the box office with terrific reviews and word-of-mouth. At the moment, its Oscar future looks bright. Let’s see how that sentence reads several months down the line.

With all that out of the way – here are my first ranked takes!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. After the Hunt

2. Marty Supreme

3. Sentimental Value

4. Wicked: For Good

5. Sinners

6. The Rivals of Amziah King

7. Hamnet

8. Jay Kelly

9. The Life of Chuck

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another

12. Frankenstein

13. Bugonia

14. Deliver Me from Nowhere

15. The Smashing Machine

16. No Other Choice

17. The Ballad of a Small Player

18. Michael

19. Die, My Love

20. Highest 2 Lowest

21. Kiss of the Spider Woman

22. F1

23. Is This Thing On?

24. Ann Lee

25. Alpha

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt

2. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners

4. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King

5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Other Possibilities:

6. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good

7. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

8. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly

12. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash

13. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me From Nowhere

14. Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck

15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

8. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda

11. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

13. Jodie Foster, Vie privée

14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead

15. Olivia Colman, The Roses

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

2. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King

3. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere

4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly

5. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player

10. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

11. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame

12. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

13. Jaafar Jackson, Michael

14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

15. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King

4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt

5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Other Possibilities:

6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

8. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

10. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

12. Emily Watson, Hamnet

13. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

14. Nia Long, Michael

15. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt

3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

4. Colman Domingo, Michael

5. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere

Other Possibilities:

6. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

11. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

12. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon

13. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love

14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?

15. Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme

You can expect another update shortly before the Cannes Film Festival kicks off where contenders like Sentimental Value, The Phoenician Scheme, Alpha, Eddington, Eleanor the Great, and Highest 2 Lowest will get their initial screenings.

98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Director

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.

It is just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They have been unfolding on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the acting fields and they can be found here:

98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress
98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

That brings us to Best Director. This is the one major race of these first six where I named none of the eventual nominees for 97th ceremony back in April of 2024. That means the winner Sean Baker (Anora) and the other quartet of contenders (Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez, Brady Corbet for The Brutalist, Coralie Fargeat for The Substance, James Mangold for A Complete Unknown) had yet to reach my radar screen. Two years ago, I already had eventual recipient Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) in my high five during the inaugural guesstimate.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system much like Anora, Pérez, The Substance, and The Brutalist last time around.

This premiere post projects a return to competition for previous honoree Chloe Zhao with heavy hitters like Paul Thomas Anderson and Guillermo del Toro on the outside looking in.

Here’s the first snapshot with Best Picture up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST DIRECTOR AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt

Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

Other Possibilities:

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly

Edward Berger, The Ballad of a Small Player

James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good

Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck

Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

Spike Lee, Highest 2 Lowest

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.

We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and lead actor and they can be found here:

98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

That brings us to Best Actress. When I gave you my first picks in April of 2024, I did not name any of the eventual nominees in my projected quintet (unlike the other acting races where I got at least one or two). Only Karla Sofia Gascón was listed as an other possibility for Emilia Pérez. The eventual winner Mikey Madison (Anora) and fellow nominees Cynthia Erivo (Wicked, whose category placement was uncertain at the time), Demi Moore (The Substance), and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) had yet to reach my radar.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we are not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar. This was clearly the case last year when Cannes vaulted Madison and Moore into an eventual tight competition for the victory.

This premiere post projects a repeat nod for Ms. Erivo for the second helping of Wicked in as many years and Julia Roberts back in the mix 25 years after taking this prize for Erin Brockovich.

Here’s the first snapshot with Best Director up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee

Other Possibilities:

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Olivia Colman, The Roses

Jodie Foster, Vie privée

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love

Lucy Liu, Rosemead

Emma Mackey, Ella McCay

June Squibb, Eleanor the Great

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.

We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days.

It begins with Supporting Actor. When I gave you my first picks in 2024, it yielded one eventual nominee. That happened to be the winner with Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. Under the 10 other possibilities, I correctly called another contender in Culkin’s Succession costar Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice). Yura Borisov (Anora), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), and Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) were not identified at this early juncture.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor. And there will be movies were not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

This premiere post projects that Colman Domingo will earn his third nod in as many years after lead actor attempts for Rustin and Sing Sing as troubled Jackson family patriarch Joseph in Michael. We could also see Star Wars legend Mark Hamill nab a slot for Toronto Film Festival Audience winner The Life of Chuck and Adam Sandler see his first recognition for Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly.

Here’s the first snapshot with Supporting Actress up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Colman Domingo, Michael

Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt

Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Other Possibilities:

Joe Alwyn, Hamnet

Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?

Brendan Fraser, Pressure

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

LaKeith Stanfield, Die, My Love

Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere

Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme

Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest