Oscar Predictions: Fly Me to the Moon

Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum look to provide Fly Me to the Moon with some financial liftoff this weekend. The rom com is set during the 1960s space race with Greg Berlanti directing. Costars include Jim Rash, Anna Garcia, Ray Romano, and Woody Harrelson. Its box office prospects are shaky (I have it debuting to around $12 million) and reviews aren’t gushing.

Fly has a fair if not over the moon 70% Rotten Tomatoes score. Several critics are praising the star power of the headliners, particularly Johansson. The actress received her first and second Academy noms in 2019 for Marriage Story (lead Actress) and Jojo Rabbit (Supporting Actress). This will not be #3 and I don’t see Moon factoring in anywhere else. However, Johansson could contend in Actress in a Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes depending on competition strength. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Fly Me to the Moon Box Office Prediction

Sony Pictures is banking on star power to land Fly Me to the Moon pleasing results when it debuts July 12th. Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum headline the 1960s set romantic dramedy with the Space Race as a backdrop. Nick Dillenburg, Anna Garcia, Jim Rash, Ray Romano, and Woody Harrelson are in the supporting cast with Love, Simon helmer Greg Berlanti behind the camera.

With a reported $100 million price tag, this a risky bet for its studio (Apple TV has streaming rights for a TBD date). This is counting on adult moviegoers to turn up for a summertime tale with no awards buzz. It is primarily relying on Johansson and Tatum to propel it and that’s asking a lot.

A best case scenario would put this near $20 million, but I think that might be wishful thinking. Low double digits or lower teens seems likelier.

Fly Me to the Moon opening weekend prediction: $12.2 million

For my Longlegs prediction, click here: