Overboard Box Office Prediction

***Blogger’s Update II (05/03/18): On the eve of its premiere, I am returning back to original estimate at $11.8 million. Been a whirlwind with this one…

**Blogger’s Update (04/26/18): I have soured considerably on my Overboard estimate. I’m revising my prediction from $11.8 million to just $7.8 million.

Eugenio Derbez and Anna Faris headline the remake Overboard, premiering next weekend. The comedy is based on a 1987 romantic comedy directed by Garry Marshall that starred Goldie Hawn and Kurt Russell. It was considered a moderate success (grossing $27 million at the time). A co-production of Lionsgate and Pantelion, the latter is the same studio that turned Derbez’s How to be a Latin Lover into an unexpected success around the same time last year. That pic opened to $12.2 million and made $32 million domestically.

Rob Greenberg directs with a supporting cast that includes Eva Longoria, John Hannah, and Swoosie Kurtz. The film was originally slated for an April 20th release before being pushed back two weeks (the shift of Avengers: Infinity War likely had something to do with that). Faris has been largely absent from the big screen as she’s concentrated mostly on her CBS sitcom “Mom”. Her last headlining role came with 2012’s What’s Your Number? (which was a disappointment) and we’re a decade from her last hit The House Bunny. 

Current theater counts put this at a rather low 1500 screens (it could certainly rise and I wouldn’t be surprised if it does). That’s roughly the number that Latin Lover had. I foresee Overboard posting a similar opening weekend, which should be good enough to come in second to the sophomore frame of the Marvel superheroes.

Overboard opening weekend prediction: $11.8 million

For my Tully prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/26/tully-box-office-prediction/

For my Bad Samaritan prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/28/bad-samaritan-box-office-prediction/

The Emoji Movie Box Office Prediction

If nothing else, Sony Pictures Animation’s The Emoji Movie will go down in film lore as having Sir Patrick Stewart provide the voice of what is commonly called the “poop emoji”. He’s one of several famous faces lending voice to those things we send on our phones all day. They include T.J. Miller, Anna Faris, James Corden, Sofia Vergara, Christina Aguilera, and Rob Riggle.

The reported $50 million budgeted 3D computer-animated comedy isn’t the first pic based on something we associate with our iPhones and droids. That would be last summer’s The Angry Birds Movie, which debuted to $38 million. I don’t see Emoji quite reaching those numbers, yet I don’t see it as low as the $23 million earned out of the gate for this summer’s Captain Underpants, another non-sequel ‘toon.

I am forecasting this will basically fall between those debuts. In doing so, it may create a serious three-way battle for box office supremacy next weekend with the premiere of Atomic Blonde and the second weekend of Dunkirk. 

The Emoji Movie opening weekend prediction: $28.4 million

For my Atomic Blonde prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/19/atomic-blonde-box-office-prediction/

Keanu Movie Review

It may be called Keanu with an adorable kitten named after the actor who gave us Neo/Johnny Utah/John Wick, but the debut feature starring Comedy Central’s “Key and Peele” could’ve been titled George Michael as well. The iconic 1980s British crooner gets his props throughout this action comedy that may have felt right at home in theaters when “Faith” and “Father Figure” were burning up the charts.

The duo’s basic cable program was a rather groundbreaking show with some truly inspired bits. You won’t really find that here. Instead, Keanu is a breezy if rather forgettable tale of the tail of the cat who captures the hearts of everyone who comes in contact with it. Jordan Peele is Rell, who’s depressed after his girlfriend broke up with him when that darn kitty comes into his possession. His best bud/cousin Clarence (Keegan-Michael Key) is stuck in a dull middle class existence with a bored wife (Nia Long) who’s out of town for the weekend. The pair soon learn that Keanu is actually the property of a drug kingpin whose employees were recently mowed down by assassins known as The Allentown Boys (also played by Key and Peele). Before you know it, Rell and Clarence are posing as them in an effort to get the kidnapped Keanu back.

Their journey brings them to the underground L.A. drug scene and a crew led by Cheddar (Method Man) and Hi-C (Tiffany Haddish), who Rell has the hots for. Of course, they need nifty nicknames, too. Tectonic and Shark Tank suffice. As they try to find that fabulously cute feline, the guys teach some criminals the joys of George Michael in a humorous bit that just keeps going and going.

Maybe that’s part of the problem here. The shark out of water premise of Keanu barely can sustain itself for 100 minutes. There are moments sprinkled throughout that work well. An unexpected cameo from Scary Movie lead Anna Faris is amusing. Key and Peele do succeed in proving that their charisma on the small screen translates to the big one. And, yes, that kitten really is a gem. Yet the concept of these guys having to “get hard” (to borrow a phrase from a far worse Kevin Hart vehicle that uses similar plotting) is a rather familiar one. This is a talented pair at work, though. I wouldn’t hesitate to sign up when they get “One More Try”, as that hit song says from Mr. Michael.

**1/2 (out of four)

Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip Box Office Prediction

After four years of box office dormancy, Alvin and Simon and Theodore bring their CGI rodent selves back to the silver screen for the fourth time in Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip. Jason Lee returns as Dave along with a voice over cast including Justin Long, Jesse McCartney, Christina Applegate, Anna Faris and Kaley Cuoco.

The chipmunk franchise has been a gold mine for 20th Century Fox. The 2007 original was a surprise smash with a $44 million premiere and a $217 million domestic take. Its 2009 sequel The Squeakquel improved on that performance with a $48 million three day and $75 million holiday start and eventual $219 million haul. Two years later, third pic Chipwrecked saw fortunes go down with a $23 million opening and $133 million overall showing.

The Road Chip faces two hurdles that could be equally troubling: the four year layoff (where kiddie franchise fans have now grown up) and the fact that it opens against Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which will undoubtedly bring in a massive family audience.

Considering those factors, this fourth chip down 80s cartoon memory lane should find itself with the weakest debut of the series thus far.

Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip opening weekend prediction: $14.3 million

For my Star Wars: The Force Awakens prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/08/star-wars-the-force-awakens-box-office-prediction/

For my Sisters prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/10/sisters-box-office-prediction/