Tag: Animation

Oscar Predictions: Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken

The coming-of-age fantasy Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken joins a crowded animated marketplace when it debuts this weekend. The DreamWorks project may come in behind holdovers Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Pixar’s Elemental on the charts. Awards prospects for Kirk DeMicco’s latest directorial effort may also find it playing catch up with those titles.

Reviews for Kraken are at 78% on Rotten Tomatoes though the positive notices aren’t exactly gushing. DeMicco has been in the Animated Feature mix before with 2013’s The Croods. His follow-up, 2021’s Vivo, had a better RT score than Ruby and failed to make that year’s quintet in the competition.

We know Spidey will be a force to reckon with for the 96th Academy Awards. It’s easily the frontrunner and that may not change. Elemental is likely to grab a spot. We are awaiting potential heavy hitters like July’s How Do You Live? from Hayao Miyazaki and Disney’s Wish this fall.

If those pics and others don’t pan out, perhaps Kraken could nab the fifth slot. I wouldn’t bet on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (06/29): I have revised my prediction from $10.8 million down to $7.8 million

DreamWorks is banking on young girls and their parents depositing their money and time into Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken when it debuts June 30th. The animated coming-of-age fantasy is directed by Kirk DeMicco, who helmed blockbuster The Croods for the studio a decade ago. Lana Condor voices the high school sophomore title character. Other performers mic’d up include Toni Collette, Annie Murphy, Sam Richardson, Colman Domingo, Will Forte, Liza Koshy, and Jane Fonda.

The studio just had a sizable hit with Puss in Boots: The Last Wish over the holidays and they have future entries in the Trolls and Kung Fu Panda series on deck. Kraken has the disadvantage of not being based on known IP and following Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Pixar’s Elemental.

There doesn’t seem to be much chatter for this one. If Elemental couldn’t hit $30 million out of the gate, I question whether Gillman can reach half of that number. I’ll project that it falls short for an underwhelming premiere.

Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million

For my Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny prediction, click here:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Box Office Prediction

Elemental Box Office Prediction

Disney/Pixar hopes the elements are there for a hit when Elemental debuts on June 16th. The 27th feature from the studio comes from director Peter Sohn, who made a rare Pixar disappointment in 2015’s The Good Dinosaur. Voiceover artists include Leah Lewis, Mamoudou Athie, Ronnie del Carmen, Shila Ommi, Wendi McLendon-Covey, Catherine O’Hara, Joe Pera, and Matt Yang King.

Four years ago, Toy Story 4 took in over $400 million domestically. It’s been a rather unimpressive run for the Mouse Factory’s nearly 30-year-old production company since. Onward debuted to $39 million and that figure was likely low since it opened in March of 2020 just as COVID shutdowns were beginning. Soul, Luca, and Turning Red went the Disney Plus route due to the pandemic. Last summer’s Lightyear was a high profile flop with a $50 million premiere and $118 million eventual stateside gross (well under expectations).

I don’t see Elemental reversing the downturn. Some youngsters will be preoccupied with The Flash or maybe they’ll go see Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse again. Reviews won’t get audiences to rush out either as the Rotten Tomatoes is 63% (low for Pixar).

Add all that up and I think this will be lucky to get past $35 million.

Elemental opening weekend prediction: $30.6 million

For my The Flash prediction, click here:

The Flash Box Office Prediction

For my The Blackening prediction, click here:

The Blackening Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Get those pens (not pencils) ready for one nominee in the Animated Feature race at the 96th Academy Awards. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is out this weekend. The sequel to 2018’s Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse is drawing similar reactions to its predecessor. That means some serious raves as it currently stands at 95% on Rotten Tomatoes (on par with the 97% for part 1).

In December 2018, Into upended the animated category. Any hope that Incredibles 2 or Isle of Dogs held for taking the prize fell by the wayside upon its release. That happened late in the calendar for the first Spidey. We are not even at the midpoint of 2023 and Across has established itself as the strong frontrunner. Pixar’s Elemental, which drew so-so chatter from Cannes, may even struggle to make the final cut of five nominees.

Across is guaranteed a slot and is a huge threat to win no matter what follows in the next few months. It is only the first half of two sequels as Beyond the Spider-Verse follows in March of next year. You can safely assume it might be a hopeful for the 97th Academy Awards.

As for other competitions, I suppose Adapted Screenplay is feasible if Sony were to make a dedicated push. Critics are also pointing out the visual effects. Yet animated titles struggle to get noticed in that particular derby. It’s more likely this will stick to Animated Feature and it could very well stick the landing. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Box Office Prediction

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse swings into multiplexes on June 2nd and hopes to start the month off on a high note. The animated sequel is the follow-up to 2018’s Into the Spider-Verse, which drew widespread critical acclaim resulting in a Best Animated Feature Oscar. It also grossed nearly $200 million domestically and $384 million worldwide.

There’s a trio of directors in Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, and Justin K. Thompson. Shameik Moore is back behind the mic as Miles/Spidey. Other performers voicing additional versions of the hero and other characters include Hailee Steinfeld (back as Spider-Woman), Brian Tyree Henry, Luna Lauren Velez, Jake Johnson, Jason Schwartzman, Issa Rae, Karan Soni, Daniel Kaluuya, Oscar Isaac, Greta Lee, Shea Whigham, and Andy Samberg.

Parts 2 and 3 of the franchise were assembled at the same time. Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse is slated for March 2024. In December 2018, part 1 started out with $35 million before legging out impressively to a $190 million stateside haul. Achieving a rare A+ Cinemascore rating, it stands to reason that audiences should be pumped for the sequel.

In the summer (as opposed to December), tentpoles are expected to post a gigantic opening immediately. Some forecasts have their projection as rosy as $120 million. That’s certainly possible, but I’ll temper expectations a bit and say $90-100 million is probably where this Verse starts.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse opening weekend prediction: $96.4 million

For my The Boogeyman prediction, click here:

The Boogeyman Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: The Super Mario Bros. Movie

The Super Mario Bros. Movie is out tomorrow and looks to rule the Easter holiday frame. While big money is about to flow through the pipeline, reviews are more of the mixed variety. The Illumination Entertainment animated production of the Nintendo property sits at 56% on Rotten Tomatoes.

This is the 13th feature from the studio. Of the previous dozen, only one (2013’s Despicable Me 2) has managed a Best Animated Feature mention. Illumination’s titles generate coins, but not nominations. That doesn’t look to change with Mario and Luigi’s new adventure. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (04/05): I am revising my estimate slightly up from $92.6M for the three-day to $98.6M and from $128.7M for the five-day to $137.7M

Universal and Illumination hopes The Super Mario Bros. Movie earns a lot of coinage when it debuts Wednesday, April 5th. The animated adaptation of the wildly influential and popular Nintendo game (and numerous spin-offs) comes from the Teen Titans! Go team of Aaron Horvath and Michael Jelenic. Chris Pratt and Charlie Day voice the iconic Mario and Luigi with Anya Taylor-Joy as the Princess. Other performers behind the mic include Jack Black, Keegan Michael-Key, Seth Rogen, Fred Armisen, Sebastian Maniscalco, and Charles Martinet (who voiced the plumbers in the original 80s game).

Given how huge this property has been for decades, the lack of cinematic treatments is a little surprising. Nintendo, however, is leery of licensing for adaptations. That might have something to do with 1993’s Super Mario Bros,, the live-action version with Bob Hoskins, John Leguizamo, and Dennis Hopper that critics scorched. It bombed upon arrival that summer when the Jurassic dinosaurs ruled the season.

It’s probably a safe assumption that Illumination won’t drop the ball with the moneymaking potential of this franchise. They’ve repeatedly proven their moneymaking abilities with the Despicable Me and Sing series and more.

Arriving over the five-day Easter holiday, Mario should capitalize on youngsters being out of school and the adults who owned the various iterations of the game attending. This is one “kid’s pic” where many of the parents will be cool with tagging along.

Over the Wednesday to Sunday frame, I believe $100 million plus could be in the pipeline. It might even get to nine digits over the traditional weekend.

The Super Mario Bros. Movie opening weekend prediction: $98.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $137.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Air prediction, click here:

Air Box Office Prediction

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (12/20): I am revising my estimates down from $23.3 million to $18.3 million for the three-day and $37.4 million to $28.5 million for the five-day

Avatar: The Way of Water isn’t the only sequel that some critics say improves on the original during this holiday season. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish steps into theaters on December 21st eleven years after its predecessor. The DreamWorks Animation adventure finds Antonio Banderas reprising his voice work as the feline fugitive alongside Salma Hayek’s Kitty Softpaws. Other performers behind the mic include Harvey Guillén, Florence Pugh, Olivia Colman, Ray Winstone, Samson Kayo, John Mulaney, Wagner Moura, and Da’Vine Joy Randolph. Joel Crawford, who last helmed The Croods: A New Age, directs.

You may recall the first Boots arrived in 2011 as a spin-off for the massive Shrek franchise. The title character was introduced in 2004 with Shrek 2. Opening in October, Puss grossed with $34 million during its opening weekend with a $149 million eventual domestic haul.

If a decade plus seems like a long time between sequels, you’d be correct. That could be a demerit for its earnings potential. There was a Netflix animated series from 2015-2018 starring the character (without Banderas purring the lines). What will help its case is the word-of-mouth. Boots currently sports a 96% Rotten Tomatoes score and that tops part 1’s 86%. It has already nabbed a Best Animated Feature nomination at the Golden Globes. This is also the only feature not named Avatar catering to a family audience. Obviously this should also bring in very young viewers not looking to wade into Mr. Cameron’s pool.

A second place start behind Water is a given. I believe this could manage a five-day premiere in the mid to possibly high 30s. While that’s not hitting what the original accomplished in 3 days, Wish appears poised to hold up well in future weekends.

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish opening weekend prediction: $18.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $28.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Babylon prediction, click here:

Babylon Box Office Prediction

For my Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody prediction, click here:

Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions – Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

If you’d told me in the spring that Puss in Boots: The Last Wish was better suited for an Animated Feature Oscar nomination than Disney’s Lightyear or Strange World, I might’ve questioned your awards prognosticating abilities. With its embargo lifted prior to the December 21st theatrical bow, this appears to be the case.

The DreamWorks Animation sequel is being praised as equal to or better than the 2011 predecessor. You may remember that it’s originally a spin-off from the massive Shrek franchise. Joel Crawford (who last made The Croods: A New Age) directs as Antonio Banderas and Salma Hayek return to voice the title kitty and his love interest. Other performers behind the mic include Harvey Guillén, Florence Pugh, Olivia Colman, Ray Winstone, John Mulaney, and Da’Vine Joy Randolph.

Early reviews have this at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and that’s beyond the 86% that the first Boots earned (we are still at under 10 write-ups so it could come down). The aforementioned Shrek from 2001 is actually the first movie to win the Academy’s animated prize. In 2004, Shrek 2 was nominated but lost to Disney’s The Incredibles. The third and fourth tales of the jolly green monster didn’t make the cut. However, Puss in Boots was among 2011’s quintet. Rango took the gold.

This is a strange year in the Animated Feature race. Of Disney’s trio of hopefuls, only Turning Red appears safe for inclusion. The frontrunner is Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio from Netflix. The steamer’s Wendell and Wild and My Father’s Dragon could also get in. We have A24’s Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and The Bad Guys (also from DreamWorks). I haven’t had Puss in Boots: The Last Wish in the top 10 of possibilities. After seeing the initial reaction, it definitely will make that jump. When I update my projections on Thursday, it could even enter the high five. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Strange World

Disney, be it through their traditionally animated works or especially Pixar, has had a stranglehold on the Best Animated Feature race at the Oscars. The category began in 2001. Of the 21 winners, 15 are from the Mouse Factory. That includes 9 out of the last 10 (the outlier is Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse).

The Disney domination appears fragile in 2022. Their adventure tale Strange World, focused on a legendary group of explorers, hits multiplexes over the Turkey Day weekend. Don Hall and Qui Nguyen direct with a voice cast including Jake Gyllenhaal, Dennis Quaid, Jaboukie Young-White, Gabrielle Union, and Lucy Liu.

With its review embargo up, the Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 72%. That’s pretty low for this studio’s product. The Pixar offering from earlier in the year, Turning Red, sits at 95%. Now that World has been seen, it appears Red is Disney’s strongest contender to take the Academy’s prize. In fact, Strange World could miss the top five altogether.

However, Red is expected to come up short to Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio from Netflix. We were waiting to see if Strange could present a challenge. It will not and my Oscar prediction posts will continue…