Netflix looks for family audiences to be in the holiday spirit when That Christmas begins streaming on December 4th. This is Locksmith Animation’s second animated feature after 2021’s Ron’s Gone Wrong. Simon Otto directs with a screenplay cowritten by Richard Curtis, the rom com guru behind Four Weddings and a Funeral, Notting Hill, Bridget Jones’s Diary, and Love Actually. Voiceover work is provided by Brian Cox, Fiona Shaw, Jodie Whittaker, and Bill Nighy.
The Yuletide comedy premiered at the London Film Festival and reaction is split at 50% on Rotten Tomatoes. With that kind of response, I doubt Netflix will mount much of an attempt at an Animated Feature campaign. They stand a much stronger chance with Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Inventor Wallace and his canine pal Gromit are no strangers to the Academy Awards. Two of their tales (1994’s Wallace & Gromit: The Wrong Trousers and 1996’s A Close Shave) won the Oscar for Best Animated Film while 2010’s A Matter of Loaf and Death was nominated. 2005’sfeature-length The Curse of the Were-Rabbit took home gold for Animated Feature, beating out Corpse Bride and Howl’s Moving Castle.
Nearly 20 years after the previous long form Wallace pic, Vengeance Most Fowl premiered at AFI Fest and will stream on Netflix beginning January 3rd. A limited December theatrical bow makes it Academy eligible. Early reviews are strong with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 82 on Metacritic. Nick Park (the legendary animator who created the W + G flicks in addition to Chicken Run and Shaun the Sheep) and Merlin Crossingham co-direct. Voiceover work comes from Ben Whitehead, Peter Kay, Reece Shearsmith, and Lauren Patel.
I’ve had this ranked fourth or fifth in my Animated Feature rankings for months and don’t see that changing after the initial reaction. I would put it behind The Wild Robot, Inside Out 2, and Memoir of a Snail in terms of victory possibility. While it’s no guarantee it makes the final cut, the past history indicates its chances are quite strong. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Focus Features hopes that audiences will be happy to attend Piece by Piece when it assembles in theaters October 11th. This is quite the interesting mashup of genres. From documentarian Morgan Neville, it is a biopic of music producer Pharrell Williams of the Neptunes told through Lego animation. Besides the central character, his musician friends Gwen Stefani, Kendrick Lamar, Timbaland, Justin Timberlake, Busta Rhymes, Jay-Z, Daft Punk, and Snoop Dogg lend their voices to the project.
After its premiere at Telluride, Piece generated mostly complimentary reaction. The RT score is 91% with Metacritic at 64. I’m not sure the reviews are strong enough that this will compete for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars.
With no significant buzz awards wise or elsewhere, I wonder who turns up for this. This isn’t really geared towards kids (and they could still be preoccupied with The Wild Robot). Adults aren’t likely clamoring for a Lego themed doc about the producer of “Hollaback Girl” and “Drop It Like It’s Hot”.
If this managed higher single digits for starters, Focus should consider it a victory. Slated for 1800 screens, I don’t think it gets there.
Piece by Piece opening weekend prediction: $5.4 million
DreamWorks Animation hopes families turn up in droves for The Wild Robot when it debuts September 27th. The sci-fi pic is based on a book series by Peter Brown and directed by How to Train Your Dragon and The Croods maker Chris Sanders. Voiceover work comes courtesy of Lupita Nyong’o, Pedro Pascal, Kit Connor, Bill Nighy, Stephanie Hsu, Mark Hamill, Catherine O’Hara, Matt Berry, and Ving Rhames.
Robot was unveiled days ago at the Toronto Film Festival to satisfying results. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100% and it could be a frontrunner for Best Animated Feature at the 97th Academy Awards. DreamWorks is putting this out while Transformers One is only in its sophomore outing. That could slightly limit the opening weekend crowd, but Robot will likely leg out impressively over the next several frames.
I still wouldn’t be surprised if this slightly exceeds tracking and that should mean low to mid 30s.
The Wild Robot opening weekend prediction: $33.8 million
The last time the Transformers franchise went fully animated on the big screen, it was in 1986 in The Transformers: The Movie. It was a flop but has since developed a cult following and it awesomely featured the voices of everyone from Eric Idle to Judd Nelson to Leonard Nimoy to Casey Kasem to Orson Welles. Since then, Paramount and Hasbro have earned billions from their live-action robot mayhem movies. The franchise goes back to animation in Transformers One on September 20th. From Toy Story 4 director Josh Cooley, this might not have Casey Kasem or Charles Foster Kane. There are voiceover contributions from Chris Hemsworth, Brian Tyree Henry, Scarlett Johansson, Keegan-Michael Key, Steve Buscemi, Laurence Fishburne, and Jon Hamm.
Early word-of-mouth is encouraging for the sci-fi action tale and that could help post Transformers: Rise of the Beasts. It came out last summer and ended up as the lowest grosser of the series with $157 million domestically. Expectations are not lofty for One and it could end up making less than Beasts. I’m pegging this for a mid 30s beginning.
Transformers One opening weekend prediction: $35.4 million
The 74th Academy Awards was the first year where Best Animated Feature was presented and DreamWorks Animation took that initial prize with Shrek. The studio has yet to win the race again as Disney has mostly dominated it. They are hoping for their second statue at the 97th ceremony courtesy of The Wild Robot.
Having premiered at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its September 27th domestic debut, Chris Sanders (co-director of How to Train Your Dragon and The Croods) made the sci-fi fantasy based on Peter Brown’s series of novels. Voiceover work comes from Lupita Nyong’o, Pedro Pascal, Kit Connor, Bill Nighy, Stephanie Hsu, Mark Hamill, Catherine O’Hara, and Ving Rhames.
Early word-of-mouth from our neighbor to the north is welcoming. With an 83% Metacritic score and no tomatoes at press time, The Wild Robot is a serious contender not only for a nomination (which appears to be a foregone conclusion), but a victory.
In order to do that, it will still need to surpass Inside Out 2 from you know who. In my view, that is not a foregone conclusion. Yet DreamWorks probably has its best shot since that green ogre. Beyond Animated Feature, Robot‘s Original Score from Kris Bowers is being heralded. There’s also a song from Maren Morris titled “Kiss the Sky” that looks to make that quintet. Either are possible as those competitions are just starting to take shape. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Morgan Neville’s Piece by Piece looks to build awards momentum at the Telluride and Toronto festivals before its October 11th domestic bow. The unique documentary is a biopic of musician Pharrell Williams told via Lego animation. It includes interviews (Lego style) with artists its subject has collaborated with including Jay-Z, Justin Timberlake, Gwen Stefani, Snoop Dogg, Kendrick Lamar, and Busta Rhymes.
2013’s 20 Feet from Stardom from Neville (focused on background singers) took home the Oscar for Documentary Feature. Five years later, his Mister Rogers doc Won’t You Be My Neighbor? was widely expected to be nominated and ended up snubbed.
Piece by Piece is a head scratcher. Focus Features will surely campaign for it in Animated Feature and Documentary Feature. Early reviews are mostly complimentary though not gushing. I think it stands a stronger chance in Animated Feature. However, competition is real with titles such as Inside Out 2, The Wild Robot, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Flow, Moana 2, and Memoir of a Snail. The mishmash’s best chance at recognition could be one of its original songs where Pharrell has competed before with “Happy” from Despicable Me 2.
Based on a popular children’s YouTube channel, Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure streams only in theaters starting August 16th. Albie Hecht, once a high ranking Nickelodeon exec, makes his directorial debut. The mix of live-action and Japanese animation stars the real-life Kaji family led by Ryan, his parents, and twin sisters.
Premiering on approximately 2100 screens, I will make a confession with this particular prediction. I was totally unaware of the YouTube show’s existence until shortly before writing this entry. Its numbers are impressive. The channel boasts around 37 million subscribers, putting it in the top 10 most subscribed in the country. There are nearly 60 billion total views on the platform.
That all could signal a healthy opening for this Adventure. I do wonder whether kids and their parents will flock to something for an hour and a half that they’re accustomed to digesting in short bursts for free. Fair warning: this projection could shift over the next few days. The theater count is about half of what Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2 rolled out with and that should limit the potential.
I’ll forecast mid to high single digits with an admission that I’m flying a bit blind here.
Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million
The Despicable Me/Minions has been a financial force over the past decade and a half, but not so much with awards voters. Despicable Me 4 is out this Wednesday from director Chris Renaud. Vocal work is provided by Steve Carell, Kristen Wiig, Pierre Coffin, Joey King, Miranda Cosgrove, Stephen Colbert, Steve Coogan, Sofia Vergara, Chloe Fineman, and Will Ferrell.
The three direct predecessors and the two spinoff Minions titles have eaxg grossed $250 million or higher domestically since 2010. Only Despicable Me 2 generated any Oscar nods. Those were in Animated Feature and Original Song (the Pharrell smash “Happy”) and Frozen beat it out in both races (the latter with its signature tune “Let It Go”).
Part 4 of the franchise has a 63% RT rating. That’s lower than part 1 (80%) and 2 (75%) and Minions:The Rise of Gru (70%) while slightly above part 3 (58%) and Minions (56%). In short, this does appear primed to enter the series back in the Oscar mix. Lucky for it, the dollars should continue to flow. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Universal and Illumination Entertainment have posted great results through five pictures in the Despicable Me franchise and they look to extend their luck with part 4 on July 3rd. The animated comedy is directed by Chris Renaud with Steve Carell, Kristin Wiig, Pierre Coffin, Joey King, Miranda Cosgrove, Stephen Colbert, Steve Coogan, Sofia Vergara, Chloe Fineman, and Will Ferrell providing voiceover work.
This has been a highly durable series in its nearly decade and a half of existence. Despicable Me debuted with $56 million in July of 2010 with an eventual $251 million domestic gross. Part 2 arrived on Wednesday, July 3, 2013 and therefore had the same release pattern as this entry. It took in $84 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday three-day with $143 million when factoring in Wednesday and Thursday (the 4th). The final tally was $368 million. Despicable Me 3 came in with $72 million in July 2017 and $264 million overall.
I didn’t forget the Minions. The spin-off tale tallied $115 million out of the gate in July 2015 with $336 million domestically. Two summers ago, sequel Minions: The Rise of Gru banked $107 million en route to $370 million total.
Animation brought summer 2024 out of the doldrums via Inside Out 2 which vastly exceeded expectations. It’ll still be making money over the holiday frame, but Despicable should fall in range with some of its predecessors. I don’t foresee a premiere as high as part 2 (though no one thought Inside Out 2 would amass over $150 million in weekend 1).
A mid to high 70s Friday to Sunday should mean a five-day in the $125 million plus space for another Despicable victory.
Despicable Me 4 opening weekend prediction: $79.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $126.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 